Hey Dan i been diving into NFL for last week - updating priors, draft, FA etc. After game 3 preseason i would like to bounce my #s off what your model has if you cool with that.
Hey Dan i been diving into NFL for last week - updating priors, draft, FA etc. After game 3 preseason i would like to bounce my #s off what your model has if you cool with that.
I dont do NFL Preseason, I try NFL reg season but I would not say what I have is usually very good. I am glad to play with some numbers and see what I come up with for sure.
I dont do preseason either...but i dont really complete my PRs until after a teams 3rd preseason game. My bad - i was not very clear.
I think all anyone can do is "try" when it comes to the NFL lol. Tough market.
very tough I never knew how anyone can beat it and even if they did how they have a clue with the tiny sample size until 10 seasons have passed and the rules and style have play have changed 10 times.
I do power rankings for NFL after the season has begun
I have never played a teaser and I cant remember playing any parlays. I usually only play sides and totals
Teasers can be profitable if you are getting the right price on them. I see show shops -130/-140 and at those prices forget about it.
Pre-Season NFL is difficult to many modelers I would think. I hear some stating that it's beatable, although the limits (for larger players) are lower, but you hear people like Trey Wingo saying it's not worth betting the pre-season, which is an ignorant statement and lacking the knowledge of gambling, he shouldn't be putting that out there.
Some keys that I focus on for Pre-Season NFL is: Practice time vs layoff/travel time. Head coaching philosophy (Harbaugh wants to win, Quinn doesn't mind outcome), QB depth, WR depth, Offensive line depth, Defensive line depth. How many series are starters going to play? Just to name a few..
4tm have been esp profitable for me over last few years but unless you have the open teaser option it's rare to find 4 lines to meet that criteria. Right odds and a book that will not limit you for playing them also
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Completely crossing the 3 and 7. So +1.5 - +2.5 and 7.5 - 8.5. As Gordon said the odds are the other criteria.
Teasers can be profitable if you are getting the right price on them. I see show shops -130/-140 and at those prices forget about it.
Pre-Season NFL is difficult to many modelers I would think. I hear some stating that it's beatable, although the limits (for larger players) are lower, but you hear people like Trey Wingo saying it's not worth betting the pre-season, which is an ignorant statement and lacking the knowledge of gambling, he shouldn't be putting that out there.
Some keys that I focus on for Pre-Season NFL is: Practice time vs layoff/travel time. Head coaching philosophy (Harbaugh wants to win, Quinn doesn't mind outcome), QB depth, WR depth, Offensive line depth, Defensive line depth. How many series are starters going to play? Just to name a few..
for the teasers it seems complicated to quantify value with them or more complex, one thing I am sure I dont need is more complex.
see my issue with those things you state on preseason is I really cant put an actual number on some of those things.
Harbaugh wants to win, what is that worth to the line? that is why I usually avoid them.
Teasers can be profitable if you are getting the right price on them. I see show shops -130/-140 and at those prices forget about it.
Pre-Season NFL is difficult to many modelers I would think. I hear some stating that it's beatable, although the limits (for larger players) are lower, but you hear people like Trey Wingo saying it's not worth betting the pre-season, which is an ignorant statement and lacking the knowledge of gambling, he shouldn't be putting that out there.
Some keys that I focus on for Pre-Season NFL is: Practice time vs layoff/travel time. Head coaching philosophy (Harbaugh wants to win, Quinn doesn't mind outcome), QB depth, WR depth, Offensive line depth, Defensive line depth. How many series are starters going to play? Just to name a few..
I personally do not bet preseason - but i do know guys who are profitable. I expect RAS wouldnt either unless he believes he has an edge.
for the teasers it seems complicated to quantify value with them or more complex, one thing I am sure I dont need is more complex.
see my issue with those things you state on preseason is I really cant put an actual number on some of those things.
Harbaugh wants to win, what is that worth to the line? that is why I usually avoid them.
For me and from my experience i will wait until night before or day of with lines are sharpest and meet the criteria.
I am saying the reg season NFL games have lines out already for all weeks, so if I did it I would not do it fair, I would cheat and use the current line. these preseason games dont have any lines yet
I am saying the reg season NFL games have lines out already for all weeks, so if I did it I would not do it fair, I would cheat and use the current line. these preseason games dont have any lines yet
I would say dont cheat haha but i understand no worries👍
Comments
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8/10
Atla
Dream
151
8/10
Indi
Fever
-4
8/10
Dall
Wings
147.5
8/10
Phoe
Mercury
-5.5
</tbody>
Taurisi out and waiting word on Sykes, however seems Atlanta beat up a bit with injuries.
Lynx played their most efficient game of year last night.
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I dont do NFL Preseason, I try NFL reg season but I would not say what I have is usually very good. I am glad to play with some numbers and see what I come up with for sure.
I think all anyone can do is "try" when it comes to the NFL lol. Tough market.
very tough I never knew how anyone can beat it and even if they did how they have a clue with the tiny sample size until 10 seasons have passed and the rules and style have play have changed 10 times.
I do power rankings for NFL after the season has begun
2tm -110
3tm +180
4tm +300
2tm approx .46%
3tm approx 6.88%
4tm approx 10.76%
They will get you booted or limited faily quick at a square book.
Pre-Season NFL is difficult to many modelers I would think. I hear some stating that it's beatable, although the limits (for larger players) are lower, but you hear people like Trey Wingo saying it's not worth betting the pre-season, which is an ignorant statement and lacking the knowledge of gambling, he shouldn't be putting that out there.
Some keys that I focus on for Pre-Season NFL is: Practice time vs layoff/travel time. Head coaching philosophy (Harbaugh wants to win, Quinn doesn't mind outcome), QB depth, WR depth, Offensive line depth, Defensive line depth. How many series are starters going to play? Just to name a few..
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Completely crossing the 3 and 7. So +1.5 - +2.5 and 7.5 - 8.5. As Gordon said the odds are the other criteria.
for the teasers it seems complicated to quantify value with them or more complex, one thing I am sure I dont need is more complex.
see my issue with those things you state on preseason is I really cant put an actual number on some of those things.
Harbaugh wants to win, what is that worth to the line? that is why I usually avoid them.
I personally do not bet preseason - but i do know guys who are profitable. I expect RAS wouldnt either unless he believes he has an edge.
It's for some people and not others and fully understand one's who do and others. To each their own. Gl Sir..
I am going to do it right now
For me and from my experience i will wait until night before or day of with lines are sharpest and meet the criteria.
Eagles -1.5
Total 35
No idea for preseason game script.
With that being said -1.35 Philly raw #
Not smart enough for totals
Regual season.
I see ur point. Obviously current PR will hold no value week 3 reg season...just fun intellectually.
I am saying the reg season NFL games have lines out already for all weeks, so if I did it I would not do it fair, I would cheat and use the current line. these preseason games dont have any lines yet
I would say dont cheat haha but i understand no worries👍
BET
Robert Bautista Agut ML -139
How are you calculating these edges?