Why almost no one wins at sports betting
RightAngle
Admin
There are lots of elementary reasons why people don't win at sports betting. Lack of time. Lack of experience. Lack of skill. Countless other things. Money management is another big reason, but everyone says that. In my view, most people underestimate how efficient the markets are and how hard it is to win. The typical bettor doesn't know what it takes to get an edge, and they can't articulate or quantify the edges they think they have.
For example, you might see someone bet a game for a particular reason. But they're unable to determine if that reason is already built into the line or not. It could be an injury. It could be home-court advantage. It could be situational. It could be rest. It could be matchups. All these things could theoretically have value. But how do you know if they are already factored into the line? Most novice bettors I've encountered through the years cannot quantify any of this. As such, they think they have an edge when they clearly do not.
People also don't have an understanding of how much work is required to actually win. Part of this is because there are few industry voices who regularly convey the message that winning is hard. Almost every handicapping article you'll read begins with the premise of "You can win" rather than the simple truth that "You probably won't."
Most winning bettors invest serious time, energy and resources into this endeavor. And that guarantees nothing. It simply gives you a chance to maybe, possibly, achieve success. And even then you probably won't.
The single biggest reason why people don't win is because winning is hard.
For example, you might see someone bet a game for a particular reason. But they're unable to determine if that reason is already built into the line or not. It could be an injury. It could be home-court advantage. It could be situational. It could be rest. It could be matchups. All these things could theoretically have value. But how do you know if they are already factored into the line? Most novice bettors I've encountered through the years cannot quantify any of this. As such, they think they have an edge when they clearly do not.
People also don't have an understanding of how much work is required to actually win. Part of this is because there are few industry voices who regularly convey the message that winning is hard. Almost every handicapping article you'll read begins with the premise of "You can win" rather than the simple truth that "You probably won't."
Most winning bettors invest serious time, energy and resources into this endeavor. And that guarantees nothing. It simply gives you a chance to maybe, possibly, achieve success. And even then you probably won't.
The single biggest reason why people don't win is because winning is hard.
Comments
What kinda elementary statement is the above? I believe because 11 is greater than 10.
It was supposed to be elementary, but it isn't something you see get mentioned or discussed nearly enough.
People lose because they don't realize the compounding effect of the vig. 55+% is REALLY hard in the long term. And to your earlier point, things like major injuries are generally OVERLY built into the line when teams (basketball) will often rise to the occasion to make up for the loss (in the short term).
My favorite myth is when people say, "Don't listen to other people. Trust your own work and gut." No, if the average person will lose and doesn't put in enough work to get an edge, then the average person should trust somebody who wins consistently. Of course, I ignore my own advice and only trust myself because I've deluded myself that I'm so smart...........
I'd have a different career if I followed that advice.
Curt SHILLING(C) also retired at 40.
they only sell them to their friends !
Danny, pay attention! Public offerings are imminent.
Just trying to help. +39 units for CBB and more sports coming.
I prefer Daniel, LOL Danni is my ex wifes name my name that is where I started the danshan uername years ago!
Thanks for your post! Id be the last to deny that winning is hard, but am interested in the definition of efficient. Especially from an NBA standpoint. The impression I get from running NBA queries comparing lines to actual spreads, is that 40% of lines dont come within 5 points of actual outcomes. This makes sense to me as there are many factors that arent (or cant be) incorporated into the making of lines. But still, doesnt that 40% leave a lot of room for efficiency improvement?
Here is an article referenced previously on this site:
https://fansided.com/2015/04/10/freelance-friday-setting-the-record-straight-on-basketball-betting/
I wont venture a response on that article until I have gone over the market efficiency section a few more times but Just off the bat thanks for a very valuable set of information R40!