<0% clv: n=244, 53.27% adjusted, +4.58 units, +1.75% ROI
0% clv: n=116, 51.17% adjusted, -2.94 units, -2.4% ROI
.01 through 1% clv: n=149, 58% adjusted, +3.43 units, +10.77% ROI
1.01 through 2% clv: n=233, 58.5% adjusted, +7.61 units, +11.72% ROI
2.01 through 3% clv: n=215, 54.4% adjusted, +13 units, +3.91% ROI
3.01 through 4% clv: n =209, 58% adjusted, +24.79 units, +10.94% ROI
4.01 through 5% clv: n=140, 64.7% adjusted, +36.16 units, +23.83% ROI
5.01 and up clv: n=92, 60.28% adjusted, +15.26 units, +15.6% ROI
CLV is the driver and stabilizes much quicker than win %, so it's the best indicator we have. More CLV is better always. On a long enough timeline, you'd see that, but when broken into buckets like this, these are pretty small samples so you get a lot of variation. Still, you can get an idea.
The concept is so simple, it baffles me when people argue about it or don't understand it. If something I buy increases in value after I buy it, that's a good thing, whether it's bitcoin, a stock, a house, Yankees -120, etc. The more the value of it increases, the better off you are. If I buy a game for -120 and at close it's -140, I've bought something for less than it's worth. The result of that game is irrelevant in the long term. Repeat. Profit.
I don't know a single person that wins at this that isn't beating the closer on the regular.
If given a choice to tail blindly the following 2 forum posters, which would you choose if this is all you know about them:
The answer is A and it's not even a tough decision at all. CLV leads to results in the long term.
Dr. H and any others with particular handicapping acumen,
Your post referenced the significance of closing line value in the context of MLB moneylines. I completely concur with the premise of your post and understand the logic. As an almost exclusive CBB handicapper, I realize the importance of consistently beating the closing line. My question to you and the forum is whether CLV is as important across all major sports betting markets as it is in moneyline and CBB?
I am in the midst of a dialogue with a good friend and long-term capper who bets primarily football. In discussing the significance of CLV, I shared with him the above post. He agrees that attaining CLV is essential in moneyline betting (MLB, NHL), and I have further convinced him of the significance of beating the closing number in college hoops. We are, however, at a disconnect as to the significance of CLV as it relates to football. He claims that CLV is fairly insignificant as it relates specifically to football capping while I maintain that CLV remains important across all markets, including football.
We would value any sharp insight. How important is CLV in football capping? Is it significant? Must you consistently beat the closing number in order to be a long-term winner in football?
Must you consistently beat the closing number in order to be a long-term winner in football?
I certainly don't know all the winners in the world, but I don't know anybody that wins at this long term in any sport that isn't beating the closing line consistently.
Comments
Dr. H and any others with particular handicapping acumen,
Your post referenced the significance of closing line value in the context of MLB moneylines. I completely concur with the premise of your post and understand the logic. As an almost exclusive CBB handicapper, I realize the importance of consistently beating the closing line. My question to you and the forum is whether CLV is as important across all major sports betting markets as it is in moneyline and CBB?
I am in the midst of a dialogue with a good friend and long-term capper who bets primarily football. In discussing the significance of CLV, I shared with him the above post. He agrees that attaining CLV is essential in moneyline betting (MLB, NHL), and I have further convinced him of the significance of beating the closing number in college hoops. We are, however, at a disconnect as to the significance of CLV as it relates to football. He claims that CLV is fairly insignificant as it relates specifically to football capping while I maintain that CLV remains important across all markets, including football.
We would value any sharp insight. How important is CLV in football capping? Is it significant? Must you consistently beat the closing number in order to be a long-term winner in football?
http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=season%3D2015+and+week%3D1&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
change the week and season as you wish and add or take away a half point on every game and you will see the extra number of pushes and wins by just using that half point.
you need someone with higher sports betting IQ than me to answer that
I'd suggest starting a new thread with your question in the subject.
Absolutely.
I certainly don't know all the winners in the world, but I don't know anybody that wins at this long term in any sport that isn't beating the closing line consistently.