1H service option
Sam B
Member
Is now a good time to start releasing 1H unders? Seems like a decent solution to eliminate foul fests and overtimes from full game unders. Am I oversimplifying it?
Comments
I like to bet early and try to beat the bullshit that happens starting around 9am. But waiting around for the first half numbers to come up you often lose value.
Look for teams that score/allow less points in 1h vs national average. Look for the opposite for overs. Find games where teams fit that profile and look to play a 1h total that goes along with your full game capping.
I wouldn't recommend blindly betting 1h over just because you like the game total over. Same with unders. It's a totally separate bet. Some games will match teams with profiles you can do that with but not all for sure.
This is just randomness, isn’t it?
I agree scenarios arise where the first half play might be slightly better mathematically than the full game play (or vice versa). However; I’m not sure I agree that they are “totally separate bets”. If one closes +EV, the other is closing +EV too… is it not?
If every 1h bet used the same pct of the game total maybe, but that's not the case. They'll shade 1h game totals anywhere from 45%-50% of game total.
If they shade it too low, let's say 45.2% of 135 game total. (61) You may have closing value on your number vs game total but if you have teams that are average to higher scoring 1H teams you aren't getting any value on your 1H bet. For example you have your personal game total at 133. Value on game total is 2 points. However if you have 2 league average 1h performing teams at 47%-48% that puts the 1h projection at 62.5/63, which is over the vegas total of 61. Value is lost due to the shade book number.
I was just suggesting that rather playing it blind you should double check that the current 1h number isn't shaded too far in the direction of the game total that you are playing.
Find teams with similar 1h profiles, that fit your total play, and the 1h line is "fair" vs those numbers and not shaded.
Thanks! That seems like good advice to always look at what percentage the first half total is of the full game total before betting them both. There are rare scenarios where I post the 1H play instead of full game, so I agree they don't always have the same expected ROI.
135 would typically have a 1h total of 63 in general, if I saw 61 I'd auto play it almost without thinking. 61 implies game total of about 131.
I've also never seen a 1h total that is 50% of the game total, that's an auto under if I ever saw one. 45-50% is much wider than we typically see, it's more like 47-48%, so of course if you see 45% you should look over and 50% you should look under.
1H/2H almost all noise. If a team rarely is involved in foul fest bullshit at the end, their 1H will be a higher percentage of their full game output and vice versa. Little to no predictive value as is true with most results based ideas. IOW Team X having scored Y% of their points in the first half in the first n games does not predict their 1H% in game n + 1.
Agree with all of this fwiw.
first two sections of this post are exactly how i approach it. i have never seen a 1H total be 50% in college and would definitely be playing the under. same thing on the opposite scenario if it was sitting at 45% of game total.
As far as unders, if the game total has been stable for a while, whose to say the game total isn't the one that is off. I have found if my model even slightly likes the over, i.e. model total 131, game total 130, 1st half total 62, the 1st half under play is a loser up to 2 pts worse than the average1st half total vs the game total. On average, if my model like the under, playing the 1st half under is about 4% worse. I would think if you don't believe the game total is even a slight lean under, you would need a little more help than just looking for a pt or two off. In the example above, if my number is better than the book number, then the 1st half total isn't really off 2 pts. 1 pt difference isnt enough to make up the disadvantage it already has. That's for stable totals, if you get in the middle of a line move you agree with but they are slow moving the 1st half lines, those are the best first half plays and offer value over the game total.
This.
I bet all my totals game/1h (mostly because cannot get a full stake on just game). Used to try to model them separately, but this does better.
The 47-53 ish splits are an average. The variance on it makes the 1st half plays more volatile. Your main advantage of overs is the 2nd half. There are about 2% more 1st half overs go game over than 1st half unders go game under. Outside of the few teams who still sit on the ball, the 2nd half play is dictated by the score. Late game foul fests, even many blowouts have more scoring late now than in the past, maybe the 30 sec clock is part of the reason. You also have OT you don't get. When I tested how 1st half plays did in games i liked a total, unders were still profitable but were 4-5% lower than game unders, overs were barely breakeven, 8-9% below the game overs. Not saying you cant find profitable plays, but it's usually going to be on totals that moved but the 1st half total didn't follow. On stable lines, you will more than likely lose some value over full game totals.
CBB totals are so soft and there is so much line fucking going on this year, if you don't know what the line should be, jumping on "off" 1st half totals can be very volatile.