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  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Good article on MNKD, there were a couple today but this one breaks down some thoughts from the recent Morgan Stanley conference:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2488805-mannkind-nothing-but-good-news-trading-volume-drops-short-interest-remains-sky-high
  • eug44eug44 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    im very happy with citadel. i do their biannual conference calls, and theyre smart as hell. they seem to have learned their lesson wrt risk after the 2008 debacle, and have really gone the market neutral route since then. winton is very guarded, and i have little info re what theyre doing tbh (theyre like a british rentech, they share no info of any kind, and its 100% intensely quant). im ecstatic with the hft fund. im very happy that ive had the opportunity to get into all of them, i dont think i could get remotely this sort of thing out of index funds.

    im now looking into this trade with the 10% or so of my money that i manage myself: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/29/u-s-dollar-will-achieve-parity-with-euro-by-2017-says-goldman/?mod=e2tw ive been looking into this for about 3-4 months now, but havent done it yet.

    wborder900 -> they have a crazy investment level, but if you get an introducing broker to put you in via a pool (ie pooling your money with that of others, to meet the minimum together), you can get into one for as little as 100k. but citadel is closing to new investments this quarter now, so the ship has sailed with them. but you can get into other/similar funds via an IB, if you meet the net worth requirements and whatnot.

    Interesting view, are u using EUO to short the euro or is there a better option? I am in a couple of mlps (cvrr and chkr) I am thinking of selling and shorting the shit out of oil. With the fracking boom and US becoming the number one producer I think oil is about to take a nosedive.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Interesting view, are u using EUO to short the euro or is there a better option?

    I would never use an ETF to buy or short anything. ETF ultras are all designed to go to ZERO.
    Open a currency trading account it's much better that way.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited September 2014
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited September 2014
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    From Ecuador
    Owning Teak Parcels may be a great investment
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    For anyone interested in oil and gas-- for the next month or so will be a good time to buy, as oil price has been sinking. Here are a couple of small Canadian companies that I've been chipping away at-- they are both setting new lows, so rather than try to figure out the bottom, I just buy a little every few days and average down.

    Both these companies pay monthly dividends-- and are committed to keeping the payments up.

    Zargon Oil & Gas--- ZARFF-- closed today @ $6.32-- www.zargon.ca Been paying monthly dividend for over 5 years-- currently @ about 10% -- read their latest presentations







    Twin Butte--- TBTEF-- closed today @ $1.47-- www.twinbutteenergy.com been paying dividend since Feb of 2012 &= about 11%

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2513185-now-is-the-time-to-buy-twin-butte-energy?source=email_rt_article_readmore&uprof=46
  • JMU_DegenerateJMU_Degenerate Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    For anyone interested in oil and gas-- for the next month or so will be a good time to buy, as oil price has been sinking. Here are a couple of small Canadian companies that I've been chipping away at-- they are both setting new lows, so rather than try to figure out the bottom, I just buy a little every few days and average down.

    Both these companies pay monthly dividends-- and are committed to keeping the payments up.

    Zargon Oil & Gas--- ZARFF-- closed today @ $6.32-- www.zargon.ca Been paying monthly dividend for over 5 years-- currently @ about 10% -- read their latest presentations


    ZARGON seems like the one worth a second look to me. Anyone else looking into this?
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    ZARGON seems like the one worth a second look to me. Anyone else looking into this?

    Just a note-- if you read their presentations, you'll see that Zargon has been around longer, and used to be one of the trusts that the Canadian govt. disallowed. They have managed the transition to a corporation rather well-- and the monthly dividend keeps flowing.

    Twin Buttes is a newer company started in about 2011. They spent their first year or so buying up properties, and started their monthly dividend in Feb 2012. It was .015/share until Dec 2012 when it went to .016/share-- and has been paid continually since 2012.

    These companies look well managed, with an emphasis on keeping the monthly dividend intact. Of course, when oil finally heads back up to the $100/barrel mark, and people quit dumping oil companies and start buying again the yields will fall from the 10-12% we're seeing now.

    To me-- these 2 look like great dividend payers in a safe place in the world. I'll be long these 2 for quite awhile.
  • CoolsCools Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Still long and strong on MNKD Reb, but how low is this going to go? Sick to my stomach that I added more at the peak, could have doubled everything at the current entry point.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Cools wrote: »
    Still long and strong on MNKD Reb, but how low is this going to go? Sick to my stomach that I added more at the peak, could have doubled everything at the current entry point.

    I think we need to take up a collection, and send Reb on vacation--- not only has he watched MNKD crash back to levels not seen in months, but, he has to go to all the UNLV home games. He needs a break.
  • JMU_DegenerateJMU_Degenerate Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Looking for a timing based and not $$ amount based answer here...
    Is there a reasonable re-entry point into MNKD based on timing. Are there key dates for shorts, approvals, partnerships, etc that stand out as key dates to get in before or wait till after etc.

    I originally bought into MNKD this spring at just under $4 and sold all of my shares this summer at just under $11. I still believe in the stock and actually only sold because (for those who might recall me mentioning this) I was buying a new house and needed down payment dollars. Obviously the price is right for re-entry at any time. Is the time right though?
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Cools
    "Still long and strong on MNKD Reb, but how low is this going to go? Sick to my stomach that I added more at the peak, could have doubled everything at the current entry point."

    I would say if not the bottom here then pretty close Cools, stay the course and add if you can (see response to JMU below)

    BTD "
    "I think we need to take up a collection, and send Reb on vacation--- not only has he watched MNKD crash back to levels not seen in months, but, he has to go to all the UNLV home games. He needs a break."

    LOL BTD!! Would love a vacation but way too busy right now, btw, nice road stretch for the Rebs so don't have to witness the pain these last couple of weeks ;)

    JMU
    "Looking for a timing based and not $$ amount based answer here...
    Is there a reasonable re-entry point into MNKD based on timing. Are there key dates for shorts, approvals, partnerships, etc that stand out as key dates to get in before or wait till after etc.

    I originally bought into MNKD this spring at just under $4 and sold all of my shares this summer at just under $11. I still believe in the stock and actually only sold because (for those who might recall me mentioning this) I was buying a new house and needed down payment dollars. Obviously the price is right for re-entry at any time. Is the time right though?"

    For admittedly selfish reasons, I have not been posting to buy at these levels as I have been hoping to sell an investment property before this starts to lift off again. So if it helps, I have about a 100k equity in the property and was going to put 50% of it at hopefully close to these levels and the other 50% into Sanofi as I like what they have in their pipeline along with the potential of their part of the deal. I am going to assume that my posting this will not effect the price whatsoever as the short side continues to throw money at this in keeping the price down as much as they can.
    Here are a couple of links that came out yesterday, one is a bullish buy recommendation and the other is about an hour and half long video from a scientist that worked on the technology of the powder form of the drug for delivery purposes, a bit lengthy but worth viewing IMO.

    http://investorplace.com/2014/10/mnkd-stock-mannkind-afrezza/#.VC3Mb_ldWao

    http://new.livestream.com/uclive/events/3450074
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2014

    Sunningdale,

    Funny what happened with that hit piece, I responded and they deleted my comments this am. but here is what I said as it was obvious this article was written for the benefit of the shorts:

    "Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article." What is the percentage you get compensated from the shorts for your recommendations? Who was apprised of your hit piece prior to it getting published that obviously (the sudden drop this am is now exposed through times and sales) hit the share price prior to the release? How tight is the noose getting for those you have given bad information to as they continue to pay through the nose for their borrowed shares? The desperation will continue as the company moves closer to profitability, the lack of shares available continues to put the pressure on as the calendar and clock continue to move forward. Here is one statement that is more logical than anything in your verbose waste of jibberish: If things were that bad for MNKD, and they were that desperate and starved for cash with no other suitors in sight, along with a product that was facing a ton of obstacles.....then why in the world would SNY feel "threatened enough to eliminate a non viable competitor" and go through the lengths of negotiations etc. as opposed to just leaving the threat alone if it weren't a threat to begin with? I believe you are getting way overpaid for your "forensic efforts" my friend ;)"

    I suggest reading the comments in response to the article, it illustrates a pretty good picture of how well informed the longs are as opposed to the shorts, most of what he wrote was cut and pasting from the standard boiler plate risks section in the SEC filings. Here is what George Rho had to say in response:

    George Rho , Contributor
    Comments (666)| Following | Send Message

    "Looking for Diogenes,

    Congratulations, it looks like you finally figured out that you can get a lot more attention if you regurgitate a company's SEC filings in the form of an article rather than as comments to someone else's article. Incredibly, long and boring as your article is, it's probably shorter (and duller) than many of the 22 comments you posted to my last article on MNKD; duller, in part, because I had already read about half of your content in the company's filings and the other half in comments to my article.

    Beyond the attention, which I know you crave, I certainly hope you got paid more than the penny-per-click that you'll get from SA, you've clearly done yeoman's work over the months. Then again, it seems ridiculous that you should even get a penny for largely cutting and pasting items from "Risk Fackors" that are part and parcel of every company's SEC filings. I would give you a penny, though, for giving me a chuckle with your second bullet point:True reality is always in the details. It's absolutely comical that you would actually think the "true reality" is detailed in the Risk Factors.

    I must say it's also funny that you believe, probably, one never really knows when the author is anonymous, that you've found some major problems with MNKD's IP portfolio that Sanofi and its legion of due diligence conductors failed to unearth.... Kudos to you Looking for Diogenes.

    On a final note, I find it rather curious that you would expend so much effort posting long long long long nonsensical comments to other authors' MNKD articles but haven't bothered, at least thus far, to respond to a single comment on your own article. Perhaps you think you've already wasted enough of our time with the article itself.

    Sleep well LFD, you done good."
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited October 2014
    Let's be honest, reading seekingalpha for your stock market advice is like going to Phil Steele for sports betting advice.

    I know Reb is well intentioned but the opportunity for making money with mnkd has long since passed. The deal was shit, the stock is shit, and the price is going lower. My advice is get out.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Let's be honest, reading seekingalpha for your stock market advice is like going to Phil Steele for sports betting advice. I agree with this

    I know Reb is well intentioned but the opportunity for making money with mnkd has long since passed. The deal was shit, the stock is shit, and the price is going lower. My advice is get out. Disagree with this. This time next year your looking at low teens. I don't believe this will be a $20/$30 stock like you were hearing at one point (never did believe that) maybe 5 years down the road but if your at $4/$5 range the risk is worth the reward. It's just a matter of time.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Quote Originally Posted by Old-Timer View Post
    Ha, I was just going to post that article. Thanks Reb

    Edit: Bought a little more at 8.48

    DRTX got down to a nice level today, as did MACK and INO....still think we're in the early stages of a broader pull back so will see if they come in a bit more, like MHR as well (energy play)

    From post 784

    Picked up DRTX @13.18 end of July Nice Day!
    End of year it cracks a new high (I hope)

    Actavis (NYSE:ACT) acquires Durata Therapeutics (NASDAQ:DRTX) for $675M ($23/share) in cash and contingent value rights entitling the holder to receive up to an additional $5 per share if certain Dalvance (dalbavancin)-related regulatory or commercial milestones are met. Actavis expects the acquisition to be accretive by the end of the first year

    This is why you have to be patient with some of these ;) ....nice double today on this one!
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    That's my Luck in at 13.18 out at 15.18 picked up a package and last week looking maybe to get back in at the high 11's low 12's but do I No. All news coming out that I was reading wasn't good so I figured I'd wait a little :(
  • 2sportguy2sportguy Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    GTAT ..........GT Advanced technologies.........................Blood in the water............A very heavily covered and promoted stock.

    Someone should go to jail..............Sadly will not happen.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Please no more good news on MNKD :)
  • eug44eug44 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    This fuckin market is ridiculous
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    eug44 wrote: »
    This fuckin market is ridiculous

    Depends on which side you're on ...not if you own puts on the indices, I listed an investment property and instead of waiting for a buyer and 30-45 days to close...I am opting to keep the property and take the equity, purchase shares and lend them out to the buried short interest that will continue to pay 15-20% to carry the borrowed shares. The brokerage house will pay 8-9% on those lent out shares.
  • eug44eug44 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    TheReb wrote: »
    Depends on which side you're on ...not if you own puts on the indices, I listed an investment property and instead of waiting for a buyer and 30-45 days to close...I am opting to keep the property and take the equity, purchase shares and lend them out to the buried short interest that will continue to pay 15-20% to carry the borrowed shares. The brokerage house will pay 8-9% on those lent out shares.

    Say what? You have your own sec lending desk? And mnkd nosedive had no affect on you?
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    eug44 wrote: »
    Say what? You have your own sec lending desk? And mnkd nosedive had no affect on you?

    The average Joe can lend their shares out of their cash acct. (not a margin acct.) at certain houses....IB and Fidelity to name two, currently they are paying the owner of the shares between 8-9%, if you call your broker ask them how much the borrow rate is, they will probably tell you somewhere between 15-18% depending if they even have shares available to lend. With regard to the MNKD "nosedive" it would only have an affect on me if I sold my shares, on the contrary I am adding at these levels. Those that sold at the market lows in '08 were affected and kicked themselves the last six years, those that maintained their hold strategy on their portfolios recouped what was at the time a paper loss and were most likely positively affected with the new highs obviously depending on their holdings. This has been the most anticipated correction that I can remember, a full 10% will put the S&P in the camp of somewhere around 1820 which btw wouldn't surprise me as we haven't had one of that size in quite some time. Fwiw, I did purchase Oct. 31 SPY calls this afternoon just before the close as the initial objective of the 200d ma and a long term support area were touched....I will most likely trade the weekly puts around the anticipated bounce off of this support level...it has been quite awhile since the VIX has been over 20 in quite some time so for traders the volatility is definitely welcomed.
    Getting back to MNKD, a couple of things, the SI (short interest) rose in the latest report ending 9/30 to back over 78mill. shares, days to cover is still almost 3 full trading weeks....wonder how they (shorts) are feeling about the patent ( http://www.freepatentsonline.com/20140302151.pdf )that just got issued yesterday for the technosphere delivery of pain management medicines (google Torrey Pines Mannkind Pain Management for articles written of what they have been up to since the patent was filed back in Oct '12). Consider this, the company is back at prices pre approval, pre partnership with THE leading global diabetes pharmaceutical company, and with $150 million now in their coffers with another potential approx. $600 million in potential milestone payments to come not counting any of their 35% of the profits from future sales....what can I say that I haven't already, I consider these prices a blessing ;)
  • CoolsCools Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    I'm assuming the gut punch for a lot of us is adding when we shouldn't have. It's like getting a game -6 when a -3 was available early and late. It won't matter if the stock gets to the high teens, as we're all praying for, but it's difficult to watch at this point. If you have confidence Reb, I will ride the ship until you say jump. I just hope things turn around sooner than later.
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited October 2014
    Cools wrote: »
    I'm assuming the gut punch for a lot of us is adding when we shouldn't have. It's like getting a game -6 when a -3 was available early and late. It won't matter if the stock gets to the high teens, as we're all praying for, but it's difficult to watch at this point. If you have confidence Reb, I will ride the ship until you say jump. I just hope things turn around sooner than later.

    The stock will settle at $2-3. There are much smarter minds with much deeper pockets absolutely convinced this stock sucks. You see biotechs with buyouts with massive overnight gains on a regular basis, but mnkd was left out.

    This was a trade on news and anticipated news play. It's now gone. Why stay in when it will only trend lower? You wanna get back in on a pre-earnings post-sales play then fine but you all have an opportunity at this very moment to get out before the stock loses even more.

    Regardless of whether my opinion on this stock is completely right or 100% off base, an indisputable fact is that the only way this stock heads north is on solid sales data and that ain't happening anytime soon. All the while, the deep pocketed shorts (that the mnkd disillusioned call evil but I call smart) will continue to make money.

    I've been long this stock, been short this stock. I think it goes to 3. But the best play is to just not be involved until the drug is actually being used.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Cools wrote: »
    but it's difficult to watch at this point. If you have confidence Reb, I will ride the ship until you say jump. I just hope things turn around sooner than later.

    Cools look at this way, a professional bettor doesn't bet for action to watch and sweat a game....it's either a winning or losing wager and that's what counts in the end...for those "invested" it is the end game that matters, this is still in the early innings and I don't believe they have the Detroit Bullpen ;)
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