Hi, I was wondering if I could ask a question? It's really for no other reason then curiosity and perhaps maybe to gain more knowledge in what you do. What is with all the first half lines as of late? Especially with you having such success this entire year with whole game plays. Again I hope you don't mind me asking.
Hi, I was wondering if I could ask a question? It's really for no other reason then curiosity and perhaps maybe to gain more knowledge in what you do. What is with all the first half lines as of late? Especially with you having such success this entire year with whole game plays. Again I hope you don't mind me asking.
Hi, I was wondering if I could ask a question? It's really for no other reason then curiosity and perhaps maybe to gain more knowledge in what you do. What is with all the first half lines as of late? Especially with you having such success this entire year with whole game plays. Again I hope you don't mind me asking.
I've found that you can reduce variance by betting first 5. Competition levels off considerably after the SP's leave the game, pens are much more similar on average than the SP spreads we are targeting. Plus you can nail down platoon numbers because you know that a lineup will be facing a RHP or LHP during the first 5 innings, platoon calculations are much more variable after that.
First 5 ML's have been fine, there is some wrench that I can't work out for the first 5 totals, so I've increased the standard deviation adjustment on those.
Play: Over 3.5 first 5 innings (-120)
Stake: 1.20 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Over 4.0 first 5 innings (-105)
These are the cigars we have come to enjoy this season & week a 5-0 week, who needs football. Between yourself the good Dr. H and Old Timer this is the best baseball season I have ever had in 43 years of gambling. THANK You for sharing this season if ever in the Burgh your choice Mortons, Hyde Park or Ruth Chris!!
These are the cigars we have come to enjoy this season & week a 5-0 week, who needs football. Between yourself the good Dr. H and Old Timer this is the best baseball season I have ever had in 43 years of gambling. THANK You for sharing this season if ever in the Burgh your choice Mortons, Hyde Park or Ruth Chris!!
Thanks brother, I always appreciate your positivity. I've never been to Pennsylvania, but I might have to makes plans to! Definitely a fantastic season for all of us, I've never seen anything like it either.
I don't have time to tally it right now, I will later and post it.
First 5 totals took me for a ride because I didn't adjust for skewed results. Averages are higher than medians on results, so I played way too many F5 overs because they were shaded upwards. Full game results are skewed too, but F5 results are skewed upwards to a larger degree.
First 5 ML: 10-5-8 +2.82 units
First 5 totals: 2-5-0 -5.45 (all 7 were overs)
As I mentioned before, I played way too many F5 overs. Results are skewed upwards because the ceiling is higher than the floor is low. The relevant scoring is much lower than the actual scoring. I've adjusted for it.
Comments
{968} Red Sox (J. Kelly) @ Yankees (S. Greene)
Play: Yankees first 5 innings ML (-152)Stake: 1.52 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Yankees first 5 innings ML (-170)
{961} Diamondbacks (W. Miley) @ Padres (O. Despaigne)
Play: Diamondbacks first 5 innings ML (+105)Stake: 1.00 to win 1.05 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Diamondbacks first 5 innings ML (-110)
{904} Pirates (E. Volquez) @ Cardinals (S. Miller)
Play: Cardinals first 5 innings ML (-105)Stake: 1.05 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Cardinals first 5 innings ML (-110)
{903} Pirates (E. Volquez) @ Cardinals (S. Miller)
Play: Over 4.5 first 5 innings (-105)Stake: 1.05 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Over 4.5 first 5 innings (-115)
{922} Orioles (W.Y. Chen) @ Rays (A. Cobb)
Play: Rays first 5 innings ML (-133)Stake: 1.33 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Rays first 5 innings ML (-150)
{918} Royals (J. Shields) @ Yankees (M. Pineda)
Play: Yankees first 5 innings ML (-125)Stake: 1.25 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Yankees first 5 innings ML (-130)
I am wondering the same thing.
Thanks
I've found that you can reduce variance by betting first 5. Competition levels off considerably after the SP's leave the game, pens are much more similar on average than the SP spreads we are targeting. Plus you can nail down platoon numbers because you know that a lineup will be facing a RHP or LHP during the first 5 innings, platoon calculations are much more variable after that.
First 5 ML's have been fine, there is some wrench that I can't work out for the first 5 totals, so I've increased the standard deviation adjustment on those.
{904} Braves (E. Santana) @ Nationals (J. Zimmerman)
Play: Nationals first 5 innings ML (-157)Stake: 1.57 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Nationals first 5 innings ML (-165)
{916} Royals (J. Vargas) @ Tigers (M. Scherzer)
Play: Tigers first 5 innings ML (-170)Stake: 1.70 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Tigers first 5 innings ML (-190)
{908} Rockies (C. Bergman) @ Mets (J. DeGrom)
Play: Mets first 5 innings ML (-165)Stake: 1.65 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Mets first 5 innings ML (-170)
{923} Red Sox (R. De La Rosa) @ Royals (J. Guthrie)
Play: Over 3.5 first 5 innings (-115)Stake: 1.15 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Over 4.0 first 5 innings (+100)
{971} Red Sox (J. Kelly) @ Royals (J. Vargas)
Play: Over 3.5 first 5 innings (-120)Stake: 1.20 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Over 4.0 first 5 innings (-105)
These are the cigars we have come to enjoy this season & week a 5-0 week, who needs football. Between yourself the good Dr. H and Old Timer this is the best baseball season I have ever had in 43 years of gambling. THANK You for sharing this season if ever in the Burgh your choice Mortons, Hyde Park or Ruth Chris!!
Thanks brother, I always appreciate your positivity. I've never been to Pennsylvania, but I might have to makes plans to! Definitely a fantastic season for all of us, I've never seen anything like it either.
{901} Nationals (S. Strasburg) @ Braves (E. Santana)
Play: Over 3.5 first 5 innings (+135)Stake: 1.00 to win 1.35 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Over 3.5 first 5 innings (+130)
{919} White Sox (J. Danks) @ Royals (J. Shields)
Play: Over 3.5 first 5 innings (-110)Stake: 1.10 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Over 3.5 first 5 innings (-120)
{906} Nationals (B. Treinen) @ Braves (A. Wood)
Play: Braves first 5 innings ML (-169)Stake: 1.69 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Braves first 5 innings ML (-190)
The Nats are resting their entire regular lineup.
{910} Reds (D. Corcino) @ Cubs (K. Hendricks)
Play: Cubs first 5 innings ML (-165)Stake: 1.65 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Cubs first 5 innings ML (-190)
The Reds are also fielding a minor league lineup.
{967} Mariners (F. Hernandez) @ Angels (W. LeBlanc)
Play: Mariners first 5 innings ML (-220)Stake: 2.20 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Mariners first 5 innings ML (-235)
{960} Phillies (K. Kendrick) @ Padres (R. Erlin)
Play: Padres first 5 innings ML (-130)Stake: 1.30 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Padres first 5 innings ML (-145)
{922} Indians (T. Bauer) @ Twins (P. Hughes)
Play: Twins first 5 innings ML (-143)Stake: 1.43 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Twins first 5 innings ML (-160)
{957} Nationals (J. Zimmerman) @ Marlins (J. Cosart)
Play: Nationals first 5 innings ML (-152)Stake: 1.52 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Nationals first 5 innings ML (-160)
{974} White Sox (H. Noesi) @ Rays (C. Archer)
Play: Rays first 5 innings ML (-160)Stake: 1.60 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Rays first 5 innings ML (-170)
Thanks
I don't have time to tally it right now, I will later and post it.
First 5 totals took me for a ride because I didn't adjust for skewed results. Averages are higher than medians on results, so I played way too many F5 overs because they were shaded upwards. Full game results are skewed too, but F5 results are skewed upwards to a larger degree.
{962} Royals (D. Duffy) @ Indians (C. Carrasco)
Play: Indians first 5 innings ML (-120)Stake: 1.20 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Indians first 5 innings ML (-135)
What is your record on First Five Innings games?
Thanks
I just updated the YTD in my signature.
First 5 ML: 10-5-8 +2.82 units
First 5 totals: 2-5-0 -5.45 (all 7 were overs)
As I mentioned before, I played way too many F5 overs. Results are skewed upwards because the ceiling is higher than the floor is low. The relevant scoring is much lower than the actual scoring. I've adjusted for it.
{901} Tigers (M. Scherzer) @ Orioles (C. Tillman)
Play: Tigers first 5 ML (-119)Stake: 1.19 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Tigers first 5 ML (-129)