Bottom line, sports betting is more about philosophy than it is about building complex models. You obviously need models to guide you, but they can throw you way off course if you aren't careful. Nothing is absolute, everything is relative. If you're deeming a calculation as absolute in nature, it's time to rethink your method.
I mean this in a completely heterosexual, plutonic kind of way: That statement gave me some serious wood.
Paid, I have the overall record at 126-87 +32.06, did I miss a pitching change on friday? I had 3-3 on friday & 3-1 on saturday. Thank You for sharing.
Paid, I have the overall record at 126-87 +32.06, did I miss a pitching change on friday? I had 3-3 on friday & 3-1 on saturday. Thank You for sharing.
Paid, I have the overall record at 126-87 +32.06, did I miss a pitching change on friday? I had 3-3 on friday & 3-1 on saturday. Thank You for sharing.
Yeah, the Rockies yanked Morales for Belisle on Friday. Thanks for checking though.
Hi, quick question if you don't mind. Any particular reason for a lot of heavy favorites lately?
I'm really not sure. It's not a conscious effect, I just play the value I come up with after running my model. I think part of it is that we are fading the Diamondbacks a lot, who have the absolute worst lineup in the league after adjusting for trades and injuries.
I'm really not sure. It's not a conscious effect, I just play the value I come up with after running my model. I think part of it is that we are fading the Diamondbacks a lot, who have the absolute worst lineup in the league after adjusting for trades and injuries.
Comments
Friday 8/8/14:
{924} White Sox (J. Quintana) @ Mariners (H. Iwakuma)
Play: Under 7 runs (-120)Stake: 1.20 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Under 6.5 runs (+100)
{972} Red Sox (C. Buchholz) @ Angels (G. Richards)
Play: Angels ML (-194)Stake: 1.94 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Angels ML (-210)
{974} White Sox (H. Noesi) @ Mariners (J. Paxton)
Play: Mariners ML (-160)Stake: 1.60 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Mariners ML (-170)
{918} Rangers (N. Martinez) @ Astros (D. Keuchel)
Play: Astros ML (-153)Stake: 1.53 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Astros ML (-165)
{905} Dodgers (D. Haren) @ Braves (M. Minor)
Play: Dodgers ML (+118)Stake: 1.00 to win 1.18 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Dodgers ML (+115)
{917} Athletics (J. Lester) @ Royals (J. Guthrie)
Play: Athletics ML (-140)Stake: 1.40 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Athletics ML (-155)
{956} Cardinals (J. Masterson) @ Marlins (N. Eovaldi)
Play: Marlins ML (-123)Stake: 1.23 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Marlins ML (-130)
{967} Athletics (S. Kazmir) @ Royals (J. Vargas)
Play: Athletics ML (-111)Stake: 1.11 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Athletics ML (-116)
{953} Dodgers (H.J. Ryu) @ Braves (E. Santana)
Play: Over 6.5 runs (-110)Stake: 1.10 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Over 6.5 runs (-120)
{913} Athletics (J. Samardzija) @ Royals (J. Shields)
Play: Athletics ML (+105)Stake: 1.00 to win 1.05 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Athletics ML (+100)
{915} Astros (S. Feldman) @ Red Sox (A. Webster)
Play: Astros ML (+137)Stake: 1.00 to win 1.37 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Astros ML (+125)
{919} Pirates (F. Liriano) @ Tigers (M. Scherzer)
Play: Over 7.5 runs (-110)Stake: 1.10 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Over 7.5 runs (-125)
{971} Astros (D. Keuchel) @ Red Sox (C. Buchholz)
Play: Astros ML (+125)Stake: 1.00 to win 1.25 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Astros ML (+120)
{980} Athletics (J. Hammel) @ Braves (A. Wood)
Play: Under 7.0 runs (-105)Stake: 1.05 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Under 7.0 runs (-115)
{977} Blue Jays (M. Stroman) @ White Sox (H. Noesi)
Play: Blue Jays ML (-130)Stake: 1.30 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Blue Jays ML (-135)
{976} Royals (D. Duffy) @ Twins (R. Nolasco)
Play: Twins ML (+140)Stake: 1.00 to win 1.40 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Twins ML (+130)
{958} Padres (T. Ross) @ Cardinals (L. Lynn)
Play: Under 7.0 runs (-115)Stake: 1.15 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Under 7.0 runs (-120)
{959} Reds (J. Cueto) @ Rockies (F. Morales)
Play: Reds ML (-143)Stake: 1.43 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Reds ML (-155)
{926} Royals (Y. Ventura) @ Twins (P. Hughes)
Play: Twins ML (-103)Listing: Hughes only
Stake: 1.03 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Twins ML (-115)
{909} Padres (J. Hahn) @ Cardinals (S. Miller)
Play: Padres ML (+125)Listing: Both pitchers
Stake: 1.00 to win 1.25 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Padres ML (+115)
{908} Diamondbacks (W. Miley) @ Marlins (H. Alvarez)
Play: Marlins ML (-144)Listing: Alvarez only
Stake: 1.44 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Marlins ML (-165)
{914} Brewers (Y. Gallardo) @ Dodgers (C. Kershaw)
Play: Dodgers ML (-203)Listing: Kershaw only
Stake: 2.03 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Dodgers ML (-230)
I mean this in a completely heterosexual, plutonic kind of way: That statement gave me some serious wood.
On this one with ya. Ventura with 5BB and a balk against 4K. Obviously, he's pitching a shutout through 6 :wacko:
Nice work on the reverse jinx!
Sunday 8/17/14:
{954} Diamondbacks (J. Collmenter) @ Marlins (T. Koehler)
Play: Marlins ML (-139)Listing: Both
Stake: 1.39 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Marlins ML (-150)
{976} Royals (J. Guthrie) @ Twins (T. Milone)
Play: Twins ML (+104)Listing: Both
Stake: 1.00 to win 1.04 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Twins ML (-110)
{959} Reds (M. Latos) @ Rockies (J. Lyles)
Play: Over 9.5 runs (-105)Stake: 1.05 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Over 9.5 runs (-120)
Yes, on Friday. Colorado changed against Cincy.
Yeah, the Rockies yanked Morales for Belisle on Friday. Thanks for checking though.
{906} Diamondbacks (V. Nuno) @ Nationals (J. Zimmerman)
Play: Nationals ML (-200)Listing: Both
Stake: 2.00 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Nationals ML (-240)
{954} Diamondbacks (C. Anderson) @ Nationals (S. Strasburg)
Play: Nationals ML (-226)Listing: Strasburg
Stake: 2.26 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Nationals ML (-235)
{970} Orioles (C. Tillman) @ White Sox (J. Quintana)
Play: White Sox F-5 (-104)Listing: Both
Stake: 1.04 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: White Sox F-5 (-115)
{968} Indians (T. Bauer) @ Twins (K. Gibson)
Play: Twins ML (-101)Listing: Both
Stake: 1.01 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Twins ML (-115)
{922} Rangers (N. Martinez) @ Marlins (N. Eovaldi)
Play: Marlins ML (-160)Listing: Both
Stake: 1.60 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Marlins ML (-175)
{904} Diamondbacks (T. Cahill) @ Nationals (T. Roark)
Play: Nationals ML (-200)Listing: Both
Stake: 2.00 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Nationals ML (-235)
{912} Astros (S. Feldman) @ Yankees (M. Pineda)
Play: Yankees ML (-180)Listing: Both
Stake: 1.80 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Yankees ML (-187)
{902} Braves (A. Wood) @ Pirates (G. Cole)
Play: Pirates ML (-118)Listing: Cole
Stake: 1.18 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Pirates ML (-135)
{952} Diamondbacks (W. Miley) @ Nationals (G. Gonzalez)
Play: Nationals ML (-185)Listing: Gonzalez
Stake: 1.85 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Nationals ML (-200)
I'm really not sure. It's not a conscious effect, I just play the value I come up with after running my model. I think part of it is that we are fading the Diamondbacks a lot, who have the absolute worst lineup in the league after adjusting for trades and injuries.
{952} Diamondbacks (W. Miley) @ Nationals (G. Gonzalez)
Play: Under 7.5 runs (-110)Stake: 1.10 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Bookmaker
Cutoff: Under 7.5 runs (-115)
Good luck.
Friday 8/22/14:
{906} Braves (M. Minor) @ Reds (M. Latos)
Play: Reds ML (-105)Listing: Both
Stake: 1.05 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Reds ML (-115)
{909} Marlins (H. Alvarez) @ Rockies (F. Morales)
Play: Marlins ML (-114)Listing: Both
Stake: 1.14 to win 1.00 unit
Book: Pinnacle
Cutoff: Marlins ML (-130)