Betting Talk

Stock Market thread

1262729313245

Comments

  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    TheReb wrote: »
    See below the definition of "quiet period" per wikipedia

    During a Quiet Period, a publicly listed company cannot make any announcements about anything that could cause a normal investor to change their position on the company's stock. Normally, that means the company does not discuss any of the following:

    New deals or wins signed in that current quarter. Announcements about previously sold implementations going live are allowed, but must be explicitly described as such
    Management changes
    Progress against company goals
    Major product or service announcements
    Major partnership announcements

    so if something were to have been signed or is in the process this current quarter since 7/1 (remember the FDA approval came 6/27 about two weeks earlier than the scheduled date...the company has been in a quiet period prior to 2Q earnings release. Having said this, there is no guarantee that a deal has been completed/finalized yet. However, the fact that they signed a 5yr agreement for insulin supply sure leads one to believe they wouldn't have "put the cart before the horse" so most likely have some agreement in principle in place and most likely during the conference call I would imagine this should come out during the officers presentation or Q&A afterwards IMO. Keep in mind the short side will try and twist whatever is presented unless of course it is something monumental whereby the buy side just overwhelms what's available to them for shorting....in which case, you should end up a happy camper prior to next friday's expiration...this (your current position) is akin to having bases loaded with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and (fill in the blank) at the plate and one run down and you have the home team ;)

    Reb, how do I listen to this call?

    Thanks
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Reb, how do I listen to this call?

    Thanks

    This link should get you to the webcast page http://www.news.mannkindcorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=147953&p=irol-presentations , hit the top link about 2-3 minutes before the scheduled time (5p EST), all prior webcasts are archived here as well
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited August 2014
    TheReb wrote: »
    See below the definition of "quiet period" per wikipedia

    During a Quiet Period, a publicly listed company cannot make any announcements about anything that could cause a normal investor to change their position on the company's stock. Normally, that means the company does not discuss any of the following:

    New deals or wins signed in that current quarter. Announcements about previously sold implementations going live are allowed, but must be explicitly described as such
    Management changes
    Progress against company goals
    Major product or service announcements
    Major partnership announcements

    so if something were to have been signed or is in the process this current quarter since 7/1 (remember the FDA approval came 6/27 about two weeks earlier than the scheduled date...the company has been in a quiet period prior to 2Q earnings release. Having said this, there is no guarantee that a deal has been completed/finalized yet. However, the fact that they signed a 5yr agreement for insulin supply sure leads one to believe they wouldn't have "put the cart before the horse" so most likely have some agreement in principle in place and most likely during the conference call I would imagine this should come out during the officers presentation or Q&A afterwards IMO. Keep in mind the short side will try and twist whatever is presented unless of course it is something monumental whereby the buy side just overwhelms what's available to them for shorting....in which case, you should end up a happy camper prior to next friday's expiration...this (your current position) is akin to having bases loaded with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and (fill in the blank) at the plate and one run down and you have the home team ;)

    Thanks Reb. Just wired more money to optionsXpress. Will likely fire it in tomorrow. Let's gamble!
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    jz wrote: »
    i posted in here a month or so ago...I'm young, have had money in an S&P index fund the past few years, and have some more cash i want to "gamble" with in the market. I bought SPY puts 18 months on 7/9.

    I'm glad you got in and listened to me. I have the Dec SPY151219P00180000 26% gain so far since I bought them.
    Come on C of C wave down take us to SPY 150 :laugh:

    Reb, you still in those spy puts?
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    underwraps wrote: »
    I'm glad you got in and listened to me. I have the Dec SPY151219P00180000 26% gain so far since I bought them.
    Come on C of C wave down take us to SPY 150 :laugh:

    Reb, you still in those spy puts?

    Hey Wraps!

    Not the weeklies, still have the bear spread that I put on for Sep expiry....those are now up 100% but here's a crazy story to go along with that....so I'm playing in the monster stack (thurs jun 26th) at the series and I'm chatting with the guy to my right and we get onto the subject of the market, mnkd, etc....so he says "hey would you mind if I stop by your office some time this week" ...I say sure just give me a heads up, turns out he bought 50k shares of MNKD the next day (jun 27th the day of the approval about an hour before it was announced lol) then when it dropped he picked up another 50k shares...he stops into my office and we chat and I go through a few charts...next thing I know he asks me how the bear spread works...long story short (no pun intended lol) ....he purchased 500 spread contracts @ 2.00 for a ttl of $100k...I called him today, he came in with his tablet and I actually looked at his screen....now @ 200k....I told him he needs to take half off the table tomorrow and let the rest freeroll!! Thought you would get a kick out of that one....you never know who you're talking to....turns out he's in the medical field and owns some clinics...crazy timing!! :wow:
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    TheReb wrote: »
    Hey Wraps!

    Not the weeklies, still have the bear spread that I put on for Sep expiry....those are now up 100% but here's a crazy story to go along with that....so I'm playing in the monster stack (thurs jun 26th) at the series and I'm chatting with the guy to my right and we get onto the subject of the market, mnkd, etc....so he says "hey would you mind if I stop by your office some time this week" ...I say sure just give me a heads up, turns out he bought 50k shares of MNKD the next day (jun 27th the day of the approval about an hour before it was announced lol) then when it dropped he picked up another 50k shares...he stops into my office and we chat and I go through a few charts...next thing I know he asks me how the bear spread works...long story short (no pun intended lol) ....he purchased 500 spread contracts @ 2.00 for a ttl of $100k...I called him today, he came in with his tablet and I actually looked at his screen....now @ 200k....I told him he needs to take half off the table tomorrow and let the rest freeroll!! Thought you would get a kick out of that one....you never know who you're talking to....turns out he's in the medical field and owns some clinics...crazy timing!! :wow:
    That is a very nice score, as for the timing, yeah nuts seems like Goldmansachs only pulls off shit like that before an announcement.
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited August 2014
    k2e2j8.jpg

    Go big or go home. Added another 170 Aug $10 contracts at $0.22. Leggo!
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    ChrisT wrote: »
    BTD,
    Thanks for the info on SDCJF. I caught this on the YMB. You have any positions or opinions on sand producers HCLP and SLCA?
    Thanks ahead of time

    ChrisT-- checked out your sand companies. HCLP is a MLP, so of the two, I'd buy SLCA-- however, both are trading near all time highs-- you could have bought SLCA for about $22 a year ago. That said, if you check out the company, and like it, I'd chip away at it, and try to buy on dips-- meanwhile the demand for sand keeps going up.

    If you're interested in looking at another way to play the oil boom, you might check out Basic Energy Services (BAS). They are a company that does completion work, cementing, and fracking. They compete with the likes of Halliburton, and are very active in West Texas in the Permian Basin (the newest hot horizontal play).

    Another way to play is buying a pipeline company. They are not subject to the price fluctuations of oil as much, as they simply transport it from one place to another. My favorite here is Pembina (PBA) a Canadian company which pays a monthly dividend (subject to Canadian withholding-- which you get back on your US tax return).

    As for a larger E&P company, check out Enerplus (ERF) also Canadian and also pays a monthly dividend.

    As I said, you need to check out these companies, and read their 10-Q's, etc. I invest, for the most part, in penny stocks, and others under $10 mainly in the exploration and production area.

    Good luck with whatever you buy.
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited August 2014
    http://jobs.newscientist.com/job/1401522517/global-marketing-director-diabetes-product/

    Looks like AstraZeneca will be the partner according to this job post published on Friday. Hopefully we have big news tomorrow folks. Feels like Christmas Eve.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Jafar wrote: »
    http://jobs.newscientist.com/job/1401522517/global-marketing-director-diabetes-product/

    Looks like AstraZeneca will be the partner according to this job post published on Friday. Hopefully we have big news tomorrow folks. Feels like Christmas Eve.

    Sorry, was out and just saw this ..so as Lee Corso would say "not so fast my friend" , AZN had FDA approval on BYDUREON on the 3rd of March
    http://www.astrazeneca-us.com/media/press-releases/Article/20140303-us-fda-approves-bydureon-pen

    and this job posting was originally posted on 3/3
    http://www.candidatecare.com/srccsh/job.guid?_reqID=2000030974810

    so it looks like that position was for AZN's newly approved GLP-1 which is not an insulin, however,
    that still doesn't necessarily mean it isn't "christmas eve" in August ;)
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Here you go fellow BT'rs

    Sanofi and MannKind Announce Global Licensing Agreement for Afrezza® (insulin human) Rapid-Acting Inhaled Insulin




    Paris and Valencia, Calif. - August 11, 2014 - Sanofi (EURONEXT: SAN and NYSE: SNY) and MannKind Corporation (Nasdaq: MNKD) announced today that they have entered into a worldwide exclusive licensing agreement for development and commercialization of Afrezza® (insulin human) Inhalation Powder, a new rapid-acting inhaled insulin therapy for adults with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. The companies plan to launch Afrezza in the United States in the first quarter of 2015.

    Under the collaboration and license agreement, Sanofi will be responsible for global commercial, regulatory and development activities. Under a separate supply agreement, MannKind will manufacture Afrezza at its manufacturing facility in Danbury, Connecticut. In addition, the companies are planning to collaborate to expand manufacturing capacity to meet global demand as necessary.

    Under the terms of the agreement, MannKind Corporation will receive an upfront payment of $150 million and potential milestone payments of up to $775 million. The milestone payments are dependent upon specific regulatory and development targets, as well as sales thresholds. Sanofi and MannKind will share profits and losses on a global basis, with Sanofi retaining 65% and MannKind receiving 35%. Sanofi has agreed to advance to MannKind its share of the collaboration’s expenses up to a limit of $175 million.

    “Afrezza is an innovative drug-device combination product consisting of a dry formulation of human insulin delivered through a small, discreet inhaler,” said Pierre Chancel, Sanofi Senior Vice President Diabetes Division. “Afrezza is a further addition to our growing portfolio of integrated diabetes solutions. It is uniquely positioned to provide patients with another insulin therapy option to manage their diabetes but does not require multiple daily injections.”

    “We are so very pleased and honored that Sanofi has joined with MannKind to bring Afrezza to patients with diabetes worldwide,” stated Alfred Mann, MannKind’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “Sanofi is the ideal partner given their complementary product portfolio, their vast insulin market presence and a leading global commercial infrastructure. Our profit-sharing agreement aligns the interests of MannKind and Sanofi to optimize development, commercialization and manufacturing costs.”

    Sanofi’s diabetes solutions portfolio includes medications as well as drug delivery systems and blood glucose monitoring devices. As a leader in diabetes management, the addition of Afrezza to Sanofi’s leading portfolio of pharmaceuticals represents the latest opportunity for the company to bring another insulin option to people with diabetes around the globe.

    The closing of the transaction is subject to customary Hart-Scott-Rodino approval and completion of financing documentation.

    Greenhill & Co. served as exclusive financial advisor to MannKind with respect to this transaction.

    MannKind will host a conference call to discuss the collaboration with Sanofi at 8:30 AM (Eastern Time) on August 11, 2014. To view and listen to the webcast, visit MannKind’s website at www.mannkindcorp.com<http://www.mannkindcorp.com>; and click on the “MannKind 8/11/14 Conference Call” link in the Webcast section of News & Events. To participate in the live call by telephone, please dial (800) 708-4540 or (847) 619-6397 and use the participant passcode: 37856089.

    A telephone replay of the call will be accessible for approximately 14 days following completion of the call by dialing (888) 843-7419 or (630) 652-3042 and use the participant passcode: 3785 6089#. A replay will also be available on MannKind's website for 14 days.

    The U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) approved Afrezza Inhalation Powder on June 27, 2014, to improve glycemic control in adult patients with diabetes mellitus.

    Afrezza (uh-FREZZ-uh) is a rapid-acting inhaled insulin therapy indicated to improve glycemic control in adult patients with diabetes mellitus. The product consists of Afrezza Inhalation Powder delivered using an inhaler. Administered at the start of a meal, Afrezza dissolves rapidly upon inhalation to the deep lung and delivers insulin quickly to the bloodstream. Peak insulin levels are achieved within 12 to 15 minutes of administration, and decline to baseline by approximately 180 minutes.

    Limitations of Use: Afrezza must be used in combination with a long-acting insulin in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Afrezza is not recommended for the treatment of diabetic ketoacidosis and is not recommended for patients who smoke.

    Full U.S. Prescribing Information, including Boxed Warning, Medication Guide and Instructions for Use is available at Afrezza.com.

    Afrezza has been approved with a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) required by the FDA to ensure that the benefits of Afrezza outweigh the potential risk of acute bronchospasm in patients with chronic lung disease.

    Important Safety Information about Afrezza (insulin human Inhalation Powder)

    The following information is taken from the highlights section of the U.S. Prescribing Information.

    Boxed Warning: Risk of Acute Bronchospasm in Patients with Chronic Lung Disease
    Acute bronchospasm has been observed in patients with asthma and COPD using Afrezza. Afrezza is contraindicated in patients with chronic lung disease such as asthma or COPD. Before initiating Afrezza, perform a detailed medical history, physical examination and spirometry (FEV1) to identify potential lung disease in all patients.

    Contraindications
    Afrezza is contraindicated during episodes of hypoglycemia, in patients with chronic lung disease such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or in patients with a hypersensitivity to regular human insulin or any of the Afrezza excipients.

    Warnings and Precautions
    1.) Acute Bronchospasm: Acute bronchospasm has been observed in patients with asthma and COPD. Before initiating, perform spirometry (FEV1) in all patients. Do not use in patients with chronic lung disease. 2.) Change in Insulin Regimen: Carry out under close medical supervision and increase frequency of blood glucose monitoring. 3.) Hypoglycemia: May be life-threatening. Increase frequency of glucose monitoring with changes to; insulin dosage, co-administered glucose lowering medications, meal pattern, physical activity; and in patients with renal or hepatic impairment and hypoglycemia unawareness. 4.) Decline in Pulmonary Function: Assess pulmonary function (e.g., spirometry) before initiating, after 6 months of therapy, and annually, even in the absence of pulmonary symptoms. 5.) Lung Cancer: Afrezza should not be used in patients with active lung cancer. In patients with a history of lung cancer or at risk for lung cancer, the benefit of Afrezza use should outweigh this potential risk. 6.) Diabetic Ketoacidosis: More patients using Afrezza experienced diabetic ketoacidosis in clinical trials. In patients at risk for DKA, monitor and change to alternate route of insulin delivery, if indicated. 7.) Hypersensitivity Reactions: May be life-threatening. Discontinue Afrezza, monitor and treat if indicated. 8.) Hypokalemia: May be life-threatening. Monitor Potassium levels in patients at risk of hypokalemia and treat if indicated. 9.) Fluid Retention and Heart Failure with Concomitant Use of Thiazolidinediones (TZDs): Observe for signs and symptoms of heart failure; consider dosage reduction or discontinuation if heart failure occurs.

    Adverse Reactions
    The most common adverse reactions associated with Afrezza (2% or greater incidence) are hypoglycemia, cough, and throat pain or irritation.

    Read more: http://mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1135/pr-sanofi-mannkind#ixzz3A3gs5z00
  • sunningdalesunningdale Member
    edited August 2014
    funny how this morning's high around 11.23 is the same high as in early July when drug approval news came out. been a great stock, thanks for the work on it
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited August 2014
    Houston, we have lift off!!! How far will she go???
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited August 2014
    I got out of all my contracts at $0.50. All said and done, made 25% thanks to the smaller trade on Friday that more than doubled. The highs of $11 in premarket slowly got dwindled down. I kept for another 5 minutes at open to see if perhaps the retail guys would drive it up throughout the day but the fact is, you can't compete with the massive institutional money shorting even this news. Cramer, 5 minutes before open, said it was time for the shorts to cover and that was the kiss of death as they just kept piling on.

    I'm considering making a small trade on the short as well at this point. Until this company starts reporting profits and with all the news out of the way, I don't know how this stock can go up.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited August 2014
  • CoolsCools Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Reb, overall thoughts on partnership/news? I guess I was under the assumption that it would hold in the $11-$13 range after the announcement.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited August 2014

    Very much agree with your assessment ;)
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Cools wrote: »
    Reb, overall thoughts on partnership/news? I guess I was under the assumption that it would hold in the $11-$13 range after the announcement.

    The link that BTD posted for the article by Psycho Analyst matches very closely to my thoughts, you should read it if you haven't already....you can also read my comment to him below it for a little bit more of my thoughts....you'll recognize the comment with The Reb next to it :)
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited August 2014
    We would have seen the $11-13 level if it were an expensive up front deal. It would have showed a lot of faith in the drug. We didn't get that. I think eventually this stock will be much higher. But we just won't see it until they actually go to market and see the numbers next Spring. I see absolutely no reason to hold onto the stock now. If it's one thing I've learned in the last several months, the short interest in this stock is enough to drive you nuts. I was fine fighting it with the positive news we always expected (approval and then partnership). That's gone now and the next news won't be for quite some time. I can see this being driven back under $7.

    I bought $9 puts at $.40 and will hold until the stock is under $8 in these next couple days. Then I'm sitting out till their earnings release in the second quarter of 2015 when I unload on my calls again!

    Thanks to Reb for his help and advice throughout this whole process. Should have had a big score if it were a blockbuster deal but I guess those deals just weren't available to them. Will revisit in 2015!
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Sold 16 % of MNKD in after-hour trading
    16 % more in an order at present
    Long on stock but pulling in some profits
    FWIW

    Saw nothing new in conference call
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Sold 16 % of MNKD in after-hour trading
    16 % more in an order at present
    Long on stock but pulling in some profits
    FWIW

    Saw nothing new in conference call

    32 % executed

    May rebuy later
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    32 % executed

    May rebuy later

    Sold 40 % of holding
  • golfguru1golfguru1 Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    I wanted to put some of my investment $ in a index fund. Can you guys give me some info on these and your thoughts on purchasing in the near term?

    Thanks for all the info.
  • CoolsCools Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Looks like everyone decided to dump MNKD today. I guess I'll be waiting a few years to pull out, in for the LONG haul! Good luck to all of us.
  • JafarJafar Banned
    edited August 2014
    I sold my puts for $1.60 for a very nice one day trade. Officially done with MNKD until 2015. If there is one thing I will miss, it's the delusional ramblings of Hung Tran on Twitter and Seeking Alpha. God is that guy retarded.

    If anyone wants a good laugh, just read through his tweets @DoctorTranRI360
    I might have to pop in there every few days, it's always enjoyable.
  • wborder900wborder900 Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Reb & Others any thoughts on biotech ATRS? Looks like it could be a decent buy at current prices.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    wborder900 wrote: »
    Reb & Others any thoughts on biotech ATRS? Looks like it could be a decent buy at current prices.

    Have not followed it, briefly looked at it...enlighten me to what you like about it if you have been following it.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Okie & Jafar,

    Nice sales gentlemen,

    after breaking support at the 8 level, looks like it is targeting the 200d ma in the 6.78 area to find a solid support and some good footing at this point. Still remains a core long term holding for me, as far as the overall market...the top that I mentioned the week of 7/25 still remains just that, we got within a few points of 1900 objective in the S&P, this bounce I would target 1960-62 area for a re entry into a put position for another leg down IMO
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited August 2014
    Another little oil and gas company worthy of consideration. Currently producing 1315 BOED.

    http://www.cazapetro.com/index.php?i...rss?id=1867740

    Caza-- trades on London & Toronto-- US symbol CAZFF
Sign In or Register to comment.