One other thing of note, not saying this is happening the last two days and tomorrow but something to be watchful of.....I pointed out that I have taken a bear spread on the S&P with an expiration out to the third week of SEP. the reason being what I felt was waning momentum as the broader market continues to squeek out new highs...ultimately it looks like they want the S&P hits 2000!! headlines...yesterday and today it looks like there will be what is called two doji stars, if it is followed by one tomorrow it would complete what is called a tri star doji top which follows the end of a prolonged trend and generally precedes a pretty decent reversal...would keep an eye on it as we close out today and tomorrow...it is not a common candlestick pattern but a very telling one when it occurs.
So there we have it, SAP (scum of the scum) have made a last ditch effort to cause a bear raid on the stock...I've been waiting to see which hedge fund was going to be desperate enough to actually come out and make some sort of catalyst statement...today they did and used CNBC as the platform (just recently said a couple of posts back not to watch the sensationalistic journalism) ....he (Jason Karp) compares it to Pfizer and Exhubera which is not even in the same league...yep, they are at the end of their rope and have to cover...this was a desperate attempt to cut some of their losses IMO.
One other thing of note, not saying this is happening the last two days and tomorrow but something to be watchful of.....I pointed out that I have taken a bear spread on the S&P with an expiration out to the third week of SEP. the reason being what I felt was waning momentum as the broader market continues to squeek out new highs...ultimately it looks like they want the S&P hits 2000!! headlines...yesterday and today it looks like there will be what is called two doji stars, if it is followed by one tomorrow it would complete what is called a tri star doji top which follows the end of a prolonged trend and generally precedes a pretty decent reversal...would keep an eye on it as we close out today and tomorrow...it is not a common candlestick pattern but a very telling one when it occurs.
Let me show you what I am talking about....if you pull up the following chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui and in the upper left corner type in SPX in place of INDU...you will see the chart for the S&P 500, the last two candlesticks on the chart show the two stars of the "tri star" so far and it was confirmed at the close for the second one today....if tomorrow's looks like the third it would complete the pattern. Now for some confirming indicators if you look at the top of the chart it shows the RSI (relative strength indicator)and it is lower (61) than the last peak the market hit right before july 4th weekend when the RSI was over (70)....that tells you there is less momentum in this high than the previous one...also there are others but it really looks like it's adding up for a reversal next week if the last star is confirmed tomorrow IMO...how you would take advantage of it in a low cost way would be to buy the SPY puts that expire next week (aug 1 expiration), right now the 196 puts as of the close of today were .41-.42 cents....depending on getting into the close tomorrow if it looks like a third star (doji) is going to be formed which means we would close near unchanged like today...I would look to pick those up for about the .40 price...this means each contract would cost you $40 so for 10 contracts $400. If the index drops next week a fair amount you should be able to make some pretty good +EV on that investment. Again, as I've stated in the past, you should not really get involved with options with understanding the RISKS INVOLVED which could include TOTAL LOSS. Below I have added a link that illustrates the tri star top example with a definition and illustration. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tri-star.asp
Fuck me. My August $10 calls are officially at the same price I bought them at. I'm considering selling them at open tomorrow and then just put the whole thing into actual shares. I don't feel like losing 15 dimes when these fags are constantly rigging them. Should just be in it long term rather than going for the home run. These options were $2.40 a month ago. Wtf was I thinking. LOL. Pigs gets slaughtered.
I feel like MNKD is looking for the home run buyout. Problem is they are not getting the price they are looking for so they keep stalling this thing out looking for someone to anti-up. Does anyone else feel this way? I surely hope there's some news before the next earnings report. Thoughts??
Reb
Thinking about getting in a couple high dividend stocks and when you have time would love your opinion.
WIN
FTR
Thanks so much for all your info, just had a friend call me about the CNBC news, ha ha.
Have a great week everyone.
GG, I am not in the dividend arena, both are in the telecommunication area and pay out a high percentage of their earnings back through the shareholders via dividend...looks like both have had declines in net income in spite of increased revenues over the last couple of years...both look like they have high long term debt as well...so the question would be how long can they sustain paying those high dividends, their are some MLP's that may be better long term, some nat gas pipeline companies but again there may be others that are in those arena's with better suggestions or takes on the companies you mentioned. GL
I feel like MNKD is looking for the home run buyout. Problem is they are not getting the price they are looking for so they keep stalling this thing out looking for someone to anti-up. Does anyone else feel this way? I surely hope there's some news before the next earnings report. Thoughts??
Lot of discussion yesterday after the hedge fund "letter" that was so conveniently timed an hour before the close....after the close the short interest came out and it rose to 71m+ shares, another all time high in the short interest which isn't surprising at all considering how much they have tried to cap the price since approval. I'm sure there was an additional ton of shares shorted yesterday during the latest bear raid as well, at some point they will have to pay the piper...as to when, have a feeling it will be sooner than later especially with a strong partnership announcement. Next earnings report I believe comes out first week of Aug. so feels like the window is closing on them and they recognize it as well thus the desperate moves over the last couple of days.
It's all relative Cools to your time frame...in the longer term picture you will hopefully be very happy you made the added purchase...can't always buy at the absolute low or sell at the absolute highs in the swings but if you can get close relative to the ranges you're doing well ;-)
Fuck me. My August $10 calls are officially at the same price I bought them at. I'm considering selling them at open tomorrow and then just put the whole thing into actual shares. I don't feel like losing 15 dimes when these fags are constantly rigging them. Should just be in it long term rather than going for the home run. These options were $2.40 a month ago. Wtf was I thinking. LOL. Pigs gets slaughtered.
Jafar, with respect to options I've tended over the years to learn when you have a decent gain and still feel very good about the position to take your initial capital out and roll the remaining portion out to a higher strike down the road...if the share price continues to trend up you can keep doing it and end up with a nice return in the end...having said that, at this point I'm not so sure you're dead in the water just yet on those AUG calls...I would wait and see if the price rebounds back at least to the 50 day moving avg. which comes in around 9.55, then you may want to take it and roll it out to the SEP's...just a thought fwiw.
Reb-- do you agree that partnership deal should be announced by middle of Aug?
Depends on who has been stepping up to the table...I think the surprise here is going to be not whether they find a partner but how many are in the mix and which one ends up being the best overall going forward. Al said at the shareholder's meeting they would partner and not sell (with the caveat that everything in general is for sale at the right price) He also wants a partner that is global and will make the sales and marketing a focus as opposed to just doing an agreement and then not going full force due to conflicts of interest. My gut tells me they will be announcing something fairly definitive by their 2nd Q conference call so we'll see how it all plays out.
Their return on their fund is 3-4% compared to the markets and a lot of other funds they have severely underperformed...ironic how they assess a company and it's prospect for future performance having just gotten a novel therapy approved by the FDA....my take is they are buried and in a corner and this was a desperate sleazy tactic via the media arena..."CNBC happened to get a hold of a letter to investors" ....short interest has risen now to 71 million shares, how they are going to cover is beyond me with Al holding almost 50% of the float Institutions another 20% and strong retail longs quite a bit as well...with a short position of 30% they have a huge problem IMO...the stock has gone against them to the tune of as high as 82% which I would imagine is causing a bit of pain...desperate people do desperate things...yesterday's action was desperate in my view.
Their return on their fund is 3-4% compared to the markets and a lot of other funds they have severely underperformed...ironic how they assess a company and it's prospect for future performance having just gotten a novel therapy approved by the FDA....my take is they are buried and in a corner and this was a desperate sleazy tactic via the media arena..."CNBC happened to get a hold of a letter to investors" ....short interest has risen now to 71 million shares, how they are going to cover is beyond me with Al holding almost 50% of the float Institutions another 20% and strong retail longs quite a bit as well...with a short position of 30% they have a huge problem IMO...the stock has gone against them to the tune of as high as 82% which I would imagine is causing a bit of pain...desperate people do desperate things...yesterday's action was desperate in my view.
These guys run an ultra successful fund that's been oversubscribed, I am not sure where you are getting 3-4% from but long-short equity funds will always underperform during a real bull market (they are forced to short 50% of their positions when everything is going up). strong demand from retail investors does nothing compared to the institutional/prime side of the business. mnkd can be the next huge fuckin thing and at $200 a share in a year revolutionizing the medical industry but that doesn't change the fact that there are huge institutional short positions.
These guys run an ultra successful fund that's been oversubscribed, I am not sure where you are getting 3-4% from but long-short equity funds will always underperform during a real bull market (they are forced to short 50% of their positions when everything is going up). strong demand from retail investors does nothing compared to the institutional/prime side of the business. mnkd can be the next huge fuckin thing and at $200 a share in a year revolutionizing the medical industry but that doesn't change the fact that there are huge institutional short positions.
I read the return was 3.94% in a few different places so either one person/entity has it wrong and everyone took it from there or it was disclosed and confirmed somewhere ...and you're right about the huge short positions as that is all part of what makes a market. Normally I would agree about the strong demand from retail investors does nothing...in this particular case I believe it does amount to something, this is not your typical situation as there is a battleground that has existed for quite some time...the recent article (link provided by Sunningdale above #772) talks about it and others have referred to it as a "cult". In the end the shorts arguments have been weak and wrong all along the way (most recently their attempt at comparing it to exubura which has been ongoing and now trying to claim the label issue) and for him to have reverted to the tactics was to me an obvious act of desperation. They looked to take advantage of the price when it was sitting at the 50d mov. avg with thin volume in a quiet period...they knew they could blow out stops at that level and just below along with causing margin calls...don't get me wrong, if I were them I would try and do what I could as well to minimize my losses. They have been doing it for quite some time as the pps continues to march up to new 52 week highs...how much longer they can do it is another story (most houses that I know have little to none to lend out). They have much hubris I will give them that but in the end that hubris IMO will be their undoing. Lets see how it plays out... so far since 2012 I have realized a return of close to 500% (no that is not a typo and can be backed up)... not bragging but just pointing out that hedge funds are way overrated and many have gone under, if his is the main one behind the large short position (not saying it absolutely is) it won't surprise me when his does as well. IMO shorts are an integral part of the overall market...if they weren't there it would tend to be a pretty dull space. Illegal shorting is a whole different topic, speaking of which I believe his mentor at SAC was investigated and shut down...they say "the apple doesn't fall far from the tree" guess we'll see how things turn out ;-)
Your the best Reb. I'm sure I speak for everyone, hang out and let the chips fall where they may. Me I'm fine I don't give a F*** just gambling with a buddy waiting at the docks.
Reb it will be interesting, potential is an amazing word. I just looked at some analyst reports they are all 50/50 on it either buy or sell no one is on the "hold" side. Best of luck to the board, my only point was there is a significant amount of shorts out there.
OT, did you buy PSEC?
Reb it will be interesting, potential is an amazing word. I just looked at some analyst reports they are all 50/50 on it either buy or sell no one is on the "hold" side. Best of luck to the board, my only point was there is a significant amount of shorts out there.
OT, did you buy PSEC?
Reb it will be interesting, potential is an amazing word. I just looked at some analyst reports they are all 50/50 on it either buy or sell no one is on the "hold" side. Best of luck to the board, my only point was there is a significant amount of shorts out there.
OT, did you buy PSEC?
I did and then after you told me what it really was I went back and looked again then sold. It cost me just the In/Out. I was under the impression it was something different.
I never said Thank You so Thanks.
I did and then after you told me what it really was I went back and looked again then sold. It cost me just the In/Out. I was under the impression it was something different.
I never said Thank You so Thanks.
No worries man, I'll let you know if I ever drop psec planning on holding on to it until rates rise
Reb it will be interesting, potential is an amazing word. I just looked at some analyst reports they are all 50/50 on it either buy or sell no one is on the "hold" side. Best of luck to the board, my only point was there is a significant amount of shorts out there.
OT, did you buy PSEC?
I'd say 30% is significant.....significant fuel in the tank that is ;-) btw, I'm going to repost the link from the SA article as I really think it is one of the most well written articles I've seen on the psychology of both sides of the "line in the sand" so to speak....the comments and his responses are excellent as well, George Rho paid homage to him which is in and of itself a great compliment.
Comments
Added 4,000 more shares
Let me show you what I am talking about....if you pull up the following chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui and in the upper left corner type in SPX in place of INDU...you will see the chart for the S&P 500, the last two candlesticks on the chart show the two stars of the "tri star" so far and it was confirmed at the close for the second one today....if tomorrow's looks like the third it would complete the pattern. Now for some confirming indicators if you look at the top of the chart it shows the RSI (relative strength indicator)and it is lower (61) than the last peak the market hit right before july 4th weekend when the RSI was over (70)....that tells you there is less momentum in this high than the previous one...also there are others but it really looks like it's adding up for a reversal next week if the last star is confirmed tomorrow IMO...how you would take advantage of it in a low cost way would be to buy the SPY puts that expire next week (aug 1 expiration), right now the 196 puts as of the close of today were .41-.42 cents....depending on getting into the close tomorrow if it looks like a third star (doji) is going to be formed which means we would close near unchanged like today...I would look to pick those up for about the .40 price...this means each contract would cost you $40 so for 10 contracts $400. If the index drops next week a fair amount you should be able to make some pretty good +EV on that investment. Again, as I've stated in the past, you should not really get involved with options with understanding the RISKS INVOLVED which could include TOTAL LOSS. Below I have added a link that illustrates the tri star top example with a definition and illustration.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tri-star.asp
Thinking about getting in a couple high dividend stocks and when you have time would love your opinion.
WIN
FTR
Thanks so much for all your info, just had a friend call me about the CNBC news, ha ha.
Have a great week everyone.
I added at $9.49 today...terrible timing.
GG, I am not in the dividend arena, both are in the telecommunication area and pay out a high percentage of their earnings back through the shareholders via dividend...looks like both have had declines in net income in spite of increased revenues over the last couple of years...both look like they have high long term debt as well...so the question would be how long can they sustain paying those high dividends, their are some MLP's that may be better long term, some nat gas pipeline companies but again there may be others that are in those arena's with better suggestions or takes on the companies you mentioned. GL
Lot of discussion yesterday after the hedge fund "letter" that was so conveniently timed an hour before the close....after the close the short interest came out and it rose to 71m+ shares, another all time high in the short interest which isn't surprising at all considering how much they have tried to cap the price since approval. I'm sure there was an additional ton of shares shorted yesterday during the latest bear raid as well, at some point they will have to pay the piper...as to when, have a feeling it will be sooner than later especially with a strong partnership announcement. Next earnings report I believe comes out first week of Aug. so feels like the window is closing on them and they recognize it as well thus the desperate moves over the last couple of days.
It's all relative Cools to your time frame...in the longer term picture you will hopefully be very happy you made the added purchase...can't always buy at the absolute low or sell at the absolute highs in the swings but if you can get close relative to the ranges you're doing well ;-)
Jafar, with respect to options I've tended over the years to learn when you have a decent gain and still feel very good about the position to take your initial capital out and roll the remaining portion out to a higher strike down the road...if the share price continues to trend up you can keep doing it and end up with a nice return in the end...having said that, at this point I'm not so sure you're dead in the water just yet on those AUG calls...I would wait and see if the price rebounds back at least to the 50 day moving avg. which comes in around 9.55, then you may want to take it and roll it out to the SEP's...just a thought fwiw.
I added about 2k shares at 10.50 and 11, so you bought cheap, lol. Hope we all make out in the long run. Thanks again Reb.
Panic selling
MNKD 8.40
30,000 share at 6.49 DCA
Reb-- do you agree that partnership deal should be announced by middle of Aug?
The hedge fund letter(fyi)
15th most shorted stock - One hell of a lot
Still holding
Depends on who has been stepping up to the table...I think the surprise here is going to be not whether they find a partner but how many are in the mix and which one ends up being the best overall going forward. Al said at the shareholder's meeting they would partner and not sell (with the caveat that everything in general is for sale at the right price) He also wants a partner that is global and will make the sales and marketing a focus as opposed to just doing an agreement and then not going full force due to conflicts of interest. My gut tells me they will be announcing something fairly definitive by their 2nd Q conference call so we'll see how it all plays out.
Their return on their fund is 3-4% compared to the markets and a lot of other funds they have severely underperformed...ironic how they assess a company and it's prospect for future performance having just gotten a novel therapy approved by the FDA....my take is they are buried and in a corner and this was a desperate sleazy tactic via the media arena..."CNBC happened to get a hold of a letter to investors" ....short interest has risen now to 71 million shares, how they are going to cover is beyond me with Al holding almost 50% of the float Institutions another 20% and strong retail longs quite a bit as well...with a short position of 30% they have a huge problem IMO...the stock has gone against them to the tune of as high as 82% which I would imagine is causing a bit of pain...desperate people do desperate things...yesterday's action was desperate in my view.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2339565-the-new-new-austex?uprof=46
These guys run an ultra successful fund that's been oversubscribed, I am not sure where you are getting 3-4% from but long-short equity funds will always underperform during a real bull market (they are forced to short 50% of their positions when everything is going up). strong demand from retail investors does nothing compared to the institutional/prime side of the business. mnkd can be the next huge fuckin thing and at $200 a share in a year revolutionizing the medical industry but that doesn't change the fact that there are huge institutional short positions.
I read the return was 3.94% in a few different places so either one person/entity has it wrong and everyone took it from there or it was disclosed and confirmed somewhere ...and you're right about the huge short positions as that is all part of what makes a market. Normally I would agree about the strong demand from retail investors does nothing...in this particular case I believe it does amount to something, this is not your typical situation as there is a battleground that has existed for quite some time...the recent article (link provided by Sunningdale above #772) talks about it and others have referred to it as a "cult". In the end the shorts arguments have been weak and wrong all along the way (most recently their attempt at comparing it to exubura which has been ongoing and now trying to claim the label issue) and for him to have reverted to the tactics was to me an obvious act of desperation. They looked to take advantage of the price when it was sitting at the 50d mov. avg with thin volume in a quiet period...they knew they could blow out stops at that level and just below along with causing margin calls...don't get me wrong, if I were them I would try and do what I could as well to minimize my losses. They have been doing it for quite some time as the pps continues to march up to new 52 week highs...how much longer they can do it is another story (most houses that I know have little to none to lend out). They have much hubris I will give them that but in the end that hubris IMO will be their undoing. Lets see how it plays out... so far since 2012 I have realized a return of close to 500% (no that is not a typo and can be backed up)... not bragging but just pointing out that hedge funds are way overrated and many have gone under, if his is the main one behind the large short position (not saying it absolutely is) it won't surprise me when his does as well. IMO shorts are an integral part of the overall market...if they weren't there it would tend to be a pretty dull space. Illegal shorting is a whole different topic, speaking of which I believe his mentor at SAC was investigated and shut down...they say "the apple doesn't fall far from the tree" guess we'll see how things turn out ;-)
OT, did you buy PSEC?
OT, did you buy PSEC?
I did and then after you told me what it really was I went back and looked again then sold. It cost me just the In/Out. I was under the impression it was something different.
I never said Thank You so Thanks.
No worries man, I'll let you know if I ever drop psec planning on holding on to it until rates rise
I'd say 30% is significant.....significant fuel in the tank that is ;-) btw, I'm going to repost the link from the SA article as I really think it is one of the most well written articles I've seen on the psychology of both sides of the "line in the sand" so to speak....the comments and his responses are excellent as well, George Rho paid homage to him which is in and of itself a great compliment.