This is a little above my pay grade, ha ha, wish I knew more. Thanks for all you do Reb.
This was not intended for the average investor on here, wraps knows what this is all about. Realistically this should be used as a calculated hedge against a decent sized portfolio where with any correction or decent pullback you should gain on the spread to protect vs. any losses. Ideally, you would have 12 handles (approx. 120 S&P points on the index) of gain while you maintain your portfolio on any downswing in the market. It takes you through the summer months and common seasonally volatile period from summer into fall. The risk in this spread is essentially 240X40 (9600 + comm.) if it is a total loss. The potential gain is 1200X40 (48000-9600= 38400-comm.) and for hedge purposes that would equate to roughly up to a 20% protection against loss of portfolio value without any sales up to that point. Again, this is not what I am advocating just something I have been looking at and I know wraps has been of like kind of mind.
This was not intended for the average investor on here, wraps knows what this is all about. Realistically this should be used as a calculated hedge against a decent sized portfolio where with any correction or decent pullback you should gain on the spread to protect vs. any losses. Ideally, you would have 12 handles (approx. 120 S&P points on the index) of gain while you maintain your portfolio on any downswing in the market. It takes you through the summer months and common seasonally volatile period from summer into fall. The risk in this spread is essentially 240X40 (9600 + comm.) if it is a total loss. The potential gain is 1200X40 (48000-9600= 38400-comm.) and for hedge purposes that would equate to roughly up to a 20% protection against loss of portfolio value without any sales up to that point. Again, this is not what I am advocating just something I have been looking at and I know wraps has been of like kind of mind.
should read 2.40X4000 = 9600.00 and 12.00x4000 = 48,000 on the calculations above
Well now that makes sense. Hey Golf, I mean come on Reb you had me all confused.
Breaking Balls Mood you know I love ya. Hope all is well with your Sons and wife.
lol, that's what I get for trying to put it in layman's terms....from Urban Dictionary:
To put something in layman's terms is to describe a complex or technical issue using words and terms that the average individual (someone without professional training in the subject area) can understand, so that they may comprehend the issue to some degree.
Instead of saying:
"You need a new piston, valve guides, stator, and counter-shaft balancer"
In layman's terms you'd say:
"There are some internal parts that need replaced"
I feel like I am back in school, but unlike when I was there 30 yrs ago, this is very interesting and has my attention! Thanks again.
Just an suggestion if your starting out or just want to learn at your pace if you have a Scottrade Account they have beginner webinars and 1 hour classes on various topics that I have taken and also they stay after class to answer questions. I find them very helpful. I'm sure all the house's have them but I like Scottrade That's where I found that the Candlestick chart is a chart I prefer and still have a way to go but I know at least what I'm looking for and waiting for. But as I said I have a long way to go. We learn a lot here from the guys but these webinars and classes really help.
Just an suggestion if your starting out or just want to learn at your pace if you have a Scottrade Account they have beginner webinars and 1 hour classes on various topics that I have taken and also they stay after class to answer questions. I find them very helpful. I'm sure all the house's have them but I like Scottrade That's where I found that the Candlestick chart is a chart I prefer and still have a way to go but I know at least what I'm looking for and waiting for. But as I said I have a long way to go. We learn a lot here from the guys but these webinars and classes really help.
Great post OT, couple of points here, the advantage of the financial markets as opposed to the sports betting markets is obviously the size differential and no matter what is stated here or any other forum for that matter it is not going to "move the number" so to speak, so as OT states take advantage of all there is to learn from the free webinars, classes, etc. if you have the time, if you're heavily in the markets then you need to make the time. There is so much in the way of +EV with the markets if you know what and how to take advantage of the opportunities. Think of it like the CBB season and all the lined games on a given Saturday, very hard sometimes for every game to be lined proficiently. Compare to lets say the overnights in sports...limits are placed....in the markets you can still take advantage sometimes pre and post market hours because the institutions only trade during normal trading hours due to liquidity etc. With the financial markets it is not like you're giving up any edge in helping educate as opposed to the sports betting markets and handicappers or those with models that jeopardize giving up an edge by giving out information. I wish I had more outside help when looking back in the first years I got into it as opposed to just listening to my overpaid broker. Today, with the technology and education that is available it is so much easier to get involved and limit risk...that's what makes OT's post so valuable, taking advantage of the education that is out there is so important can't emphasize it enough.
As MNKD continues to negotiate the 5 yr. neckline, just thought I would throw out a position that I took and the reasoning behind it. I went long MNST through options out to Jul 18, three "houses" have come out the last few days and initiated their coverage with buys or outperforms...Credit Suisse, RBC, and today Jeffries. They all coincidentally put their initial targets at 82 area (about 12-14 above where the price stood at the time of recommendation) There has been the idea through out the last six mos. that one of the beverage giants Coke, Pepsi, or Ambev would make a play for them as they are the only beverage company showing any decent growth numbers. The consensus seems to be that Coke will be the one in the mix to become serious as they currently are a big distributor for MNST and it would make sense as a defensive play so as to not let either of the other two gain entry. Also, Coke has been lackluster in growth and earnings with sales of their diet coke slumping. Even if the takeover play doesn't come into play, the company has excellent growth in earnings and no debt. The only real negative has been the political side of advocates against energy drinks especially to minors. FYI, I took a long position in the Jul 18's 72.5 strike. Options can have high risk for total loss so for those less experienced not recommended.
OT don't know anything about the one you mentioned...sorry, if I get the time to do some DD on it I will. Take care, -R
Great post OT, couple of points here, the advantage of the financial markets as opposed to the sports betting markets is obviously the size differential and no matter what is stated here or any other forum for that matter it is not going to "move the number" so to speak, so as OT states take advantage of all there is to learn from the free webinars, classes, etc. if you have the time, if you're heavily in the markets then you need to make the time. There is so much in the way of +EV with the markets if you know what and how to take advantage of the opportunities. Think of it like the CBB season and all the lined games on a given Saturday, very hard sometimes for every game to be lined proficiently. Compare to lets say the overnights in sports...limits are placed....in the markets you can still take advantage sometimes pre and post market hours because the institutions only trade during normal trading hours due to liquidity etc. With the financial markets it is not like you're giving up any edge in helping educate as opposed to the sports betting markets and handicappers or those with models that jeopardize giving up an edge by giving out information. I wish I had more outside help when looking back in the first years I got into it as opposed to just listening to my overpaid broker. Today, with the technology and education that is available it is so much easier to get involved and limit risk...that's what makes OT's post so valuable, taking advantage of the education that is out there is so important can't emphasize it enough.
What books, etc would you recommend also, thanks OT great info.
I found a story in today's RJ from Vegas and I think you can access the Las Vegas Review Journal via the Internet and read it for free by going to the sports section. Not really sure but I think I did it a while ago.
The story is about Cory Vaughn who played for San Diego St. and was coach for three years by Tony Gwynn. The story is mainly about his feelings about Gwynn and how great a person he was and the story of course is about his love for Gwynn and his feelings of his passing. What I also found interesting he has Type 1 Diabetes and has the pump.
"Vaughn always slides on his right side because he plays with an insulin pump in his back left pocket that regulates his blood sugar . The pump, which is the size of a garage door opener, supplies insulin to Vaughn through a catheter attached to his glute. I wear the pump all the time Vaughn said. It pumps insulin into me whenever I need it, so I don't have to take shots. It's easier when I travel and stuff.
Made me think even more about my son and what a great thing MNKD has developed and how much easier life will be for people with this deadly disease when this hits the market.
I found a story in today's RJ from Vegas and I think you can access the Las Vegas Review Journal via the Internet and read it for free by going to the sports section. Not really sure but I think I did it a while ago.
The story is about Cory Vaughn who played for San Diego St. and was coach for three years by Tony Gwynn. The story is mainly about his feelings about Gwynn and how great a person he was and the story of course is about his love for Gwynn and his feelings of his passing. What I also found interesting he has Type 1 Diabetes and has the pump.
"Vaughn always slides on his right side because he plays with an insulin pump in his back left pocket that regulates his blood sugar . The pump, which is the size of a garage door opener, supplies insulin to Vaughn through a catheter attached to his glute. I wear the pump all the time Vaughn said. It pumps insulin into me whenever I need it, so I don't have to take shots. It's easier when I travel and stuff.
Made me think even more about my son and what a great thing MNKD has developed and how much easier life will be for people with this deadly disease when this hits the market.
I believe we are getting much closer to that day my friend, believe the way it's behaving is telling us something....should be interesting to see after the close where the short interest as of 6/15 was ;-)
A Realistic MNKD Long-Term Price Target Based On Hard Data About Worldwide Insulin Use by Psycho Analyst
This article was published on Tue, Jun. 24, 1:46 PM ET
The Reb & Others.... I just took a solid position in FNMA (Fannie Mae). I'm curious as to what the forums thoughts are on this stock long term. I feel it is a rather fitting stock for this forum because it is going to be high risk, high reward with the government playing a role in its position on this company.
What I can say about it is... I am long on the stock, I think its at a good price point, and it has solid investors backing it (Warren Buffet and Carl Ichan both with big money in it) Something has to give on the government position with this company and when it does things are gonna go one way or another. Prediction would be $6-$20.
The Reb & Others.... I just took a solid position in FNMA (Fannie Mae). I'm curious as to what the forums thoughts are on this stock long term. I feel it is a rather fitting stock for this forum because it is going to be high risk, high reward with the government playing a role in its position on this company.
What I can say about it is... I am long on the stock, I think its at a good price point, and it has solid investors backing it (Warren Buffet and Carl Ichan both with big money in it) Something has to give on the government position with this company and when it does things are gonna go one way or another. Prediction would be $6-$20.
Any thoughts are appreciated.
I have one gambling stock and FNMA is mine, I have a few thousand shares at 5.30 I bought it at the worst possible number, very similar to my sports betting technique. I think its going to be 2+ years until the government makes a decision on the companies direction, what the government is doing right now is 100% illegal and completely unheard of in the Western world. Conspiracy theorist couldn't make this up. For some reason I am more and more pessimistic about it's future, I bought it figuring I'll let the power house hedge funds fight the battle and grow the stock. A number of members of Congress and Senate have disclosed positions in Fannie and Freddy so wiping out shareholder equity isn't in their best interest. there is also a huge difference between owning the common vs. preferred shares, I own the common but would recommend the preferred (lol). Buffett doesn't own FNMA (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/28/warrenbuffett-on-fannie-freddie.aspx). I really wish I would have bought MNKD and FNMA. Best of luck and welcome to the club!
John Murphy is the nuts when it comes to intermarket technicals, etc. He is also connected with Stockcharts.com
Reb I seem to disagree with you every time BUT I think that if anyone wants to learn about the markets they should first read a book about fundamental analysis and maybe later on get into technical. Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham is the oldest and most popular book on this subject (book is very old)
The Reb & Others.... I just took a solid position in FNMA (Fannie Mae). I'm curious as to what the forums thoughts are on this stock long term. I feel it is a rather fitting stock for this forum because it is going to be high risk, high reward with the government playing a role in its position on this company.
What I can say about it is... I am long on the stock, I think its at a good price point, and it has solid investors backing it (Warren Buffet and Carl Ichan both with big money in it) Something has to give on the government position with this company and when it does things are gonna go one way or another. Prediction would be $6-$20.
Any thoughts are appreciated.
(With reference to FNMA see post #447 in this thread, I believe where we were in March is similar to where we are now....could be a quarter end coincidence but we will most likely see some steam let out of the current market...could have started yesterday (I believe it did)...I don't know where FNMA is going to end up but holding the common is not where I particularly am nor want to be, I don't see much happening with it before the next regime possibly (2016) and IMO there are still better plays out there on a speculative basis...GL going forward with it ;-)
Reb I seem to disagree with you every time BUT I think that if anyone wants to learn about the markets they should first read a book about fundamental analysis and maybe later on get into technical. Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham is the oldest and most popular book on this subject (book is very old)
lol Eug, that's what makes markets ;-) ...as far as the literature goes I come from more of a technical camp so thus the reason I recommended Murphy's book but each individual has to decide for themselves what works best for them.
Reb I seem to disagree with you every time BUT I think that if anyone wants to learn about the markets they should first read a book about fundamental analysis and maybe later on get into technical. Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham is the oldest and most popular book on this subject (book is very old)
Thought this to be a good article and it also references your fundamentalist Graham:
ehhhhhh --- it really is a compelling article to open a long position. I hate relying on the FDA to do anything right. I came to the office and wanted to buy it on the day that they suspended trading and then it was too late (I thought). What do you think happens to them if Al Mann passes away?
ehhhhhh --- it really is a compelling article to open a long position. I hate relying on the FDA to do anything right. I came to the office and wanted to buy it on the day that they suspended trading and then it was too late (I thought). What do you think happens to them if Al Mann passes away?
Looking at ARWR no rush take a look. I seen 15.05 the other day and from articles I read and the buy upgrades. A dip was coming as I understood what I was reading and then a sell off the past two days. Today's drop was on lower volume then usual and none of the Big Guys sold is that telling me the dip was profit taking as I was reading also from people doing the in and out. so the order I put in for 13.90 the other day and was bought today. it closed at 13.42.
OT, this isn't really a "pharma stock" its a trust or a medical patent troll company. trust means that they have to pay out upwards of 90% of their earnings to investors through dividends, they typically have no upside as you can see in their historical price. I own an energy trust (CHKR) pays about 25% a year, to simplify this they own oil wells, whatever oil they get they sell and pay investors a dividend. the wells at some point are projected to fully deplete (in 2031 I believe) and that's when the trust goes to zero. if they don't preform "well" the oil can run out much sooner, you tax consequence is also higher than your stock dividend (but you already own a trust not an equity). Regardless, I am also long in CVRR (owned by Carl Icahn pays about 15% and has plenty of upside IMO) I will also be opening a position in PSEC (pays 12-13%). Best of luck everyone and congrats to those that are long MNKD.
Sorry so late on my response but I appreciate your honesty and happy to always hear advice from people Like You, Reb,Wraps and of course to long a list to remember everyone and you guys are like a 10 I'm a 3/4 at best so all negative comments are welcome they're Obviously needed to learn.
I really didn't know what I was buying and looked again and took losing commission on both sides. So thanks again for your honesty.
ehhhhhh --- it really is a compelling article to open a long position. I hate relying on the FDA to do anything right. I came to the office and wanted to buy it on the day that they suspended trading and then it was too late (I thought). What do you think happens to them if Al Mann passes away?
There are some in the camp that he has been the stubborn one holding out on price and terms for partnership or buyout...so in effect it may actually cause a jump after an initial sell on the news type of thing...as far as his estate being in order, well lets just say I believe everything ends up in his foundation....having said all that, when I saw him at the shareholders meeting he was parking his car after driving himself and seemed to have a little pep in his step ;-)
Comments
This was not intended for the average investor on here, wraps knows what this is all about. Realistically this should be used as a calculated hedge against a decent sized portfolio where with any correction or decent pullback you should gain on the spread to protect vs. any losses. Ideally, you would have 12 handles (approx. 120 S&P points on the index) of gain while you maintain your portfolio on any downswing in the market. It takes you through the summer months and common seasonally volatile period from summer into fall. The risk in this spread is essentially 240X40 (9600 + comm.) if it is a total loss. The potential gain is 1200X40 (48000-9600= 38400-comm.) and for hedge purposes that would equate to roughly up to a 20% protection against loss of portfolio value without any sales up to that point. Again, this is not what I am advocating just something I have been looking at and I know wraps has been of like kind of mind.
should read 2.40X4000 = 9600.00 and 12.00x4000 = 48,000 on the calculations above
Breaking Balls Mood you know I love ya. Hope all is well with your Sons and wife.
lol, that's what I get for trying to put it in layman's terms....from Urban Dictionary:
To put something in layman's terms is to describe a complex or technical issue using words and terms that the average individual (someone without professional training in the subject area) can understand, so that they may comprehend the issue to some degree.
Instead of saying:
"You need a new piston, valve guides, stator, and counter-shaft balancer"
In layman's terms you'd say:
"There are some internal parts that need replaced"
That's why I'm on the list for a full-body transplant.
Just an suggestion if your starting out or just want to learn at your pace if you have a Scottrade Account they have beginner webinars and 1 hour classes on various topics that I have taken and also they stay after class to answer questions. I find them very helpful. I'm sure all the house's have them but I like Scottrade That's where I found that the Candlestick chart is a chart I prefer and still have a way to go but I know at least what I'm looking for and waiting for. But as I said I have a long way to go. We learn a lot here from the guys but these webinars and classes really help.
Great post OT, couple of points here, the advantage of the financial markets as opposed to the sports betting markets is obviously the size differential and no matter what is stated here or any other forum for that matter it is not going to "move the number" so to speak, so as OT states take advantage of all there is to learn from the free webinars, classes, etc. if you have the time, if you're heavily in the markets then you need to make the time. There is so much in the way of +EV with the markets if you know what and how to take advantage of the opportunities. Think of it like the CBB season and all the lined games on a given Saturday, very hard sometimes for every game to be lined proficiently. Compare to lets say the overnights in sports...limits are placed....in the markets you can still take advantage sometimes pre and post market hours because the institutions only trade during normal trading hours due to liquidity etc. With the financial markets it is not like you're giving up any edge in helping educate as opposed to the sports betting markets and handicappers or those with models that jeopardize giving up an edge by giving out information. I wish I had more outside help when looking back in the first years I got into it as opposed to just listening to my overpaid broker. Today, with the technology and education that is available it is so much easier to get involved and limit risk...that's what makes OT's post so valuable, taking advantage of the education that is out there is so important can't emphasize it enough.
10 days later the Motley Fool puts this out, wonder if he is a member of the forum lol: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/06/20/is-now-the-time-for-coke-to-buy-monster-energy.aspx
What books, etc would you recommend also, thanks OT great info.
This has been a mainstay "bible" for me for quite some years: http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Financial-Markets-Comprehensive/dp/0735200661
John Murphy is the nuts when it comes to intermarket technicals, etc. He is also connected with Stockcharts.com
http://insiderbuysuperstocks.com/
Most unfortunate automatic-link-shortening i have seen this year.
The story is about Cory Vaughn who played for San Diego St. and was coach for three years by Tony Gwynn. The story is mainly about his feelings about Gwynn and how great a person he was and the story of course is about his love for Gwynn and his feelings of his passing. What I also found interesting he has Type 1 Diabetes and has the pump.
"Vaughn always slides on his right side because he plays with an insulin pump in his back left pocket that regulates his blood sugar . The pump, which is the size of a garage door opener, supplies insulin to Vaughn through a catheter attached to his glute. I wear the pump all the time Vaughn said. It pumps insulin into me whenever I need it, so I don't have to take shots. It's easier when I travel and stuff.
Made me think even more about my son and what a great thing MNKD has developed and how much easier life will be for people with this deadly disease when this hits the market.
I believe we are getting much closer to that day my friend, believe the way it's behaving is telling us something....should be interesting to see after the close where the short interest as of 6/15 was ;-)
This article was published on Tue, Jun. 24, 1:46 PM ET
Read the full article now »
From Seeking Alpha
What I can say about it is... I am long on the stock, I think its at a good price point, and it has solid investors backing it (Warren Buffet and Carl Ichan both with big money in it) Something has to give on the government position with this company and when it does things are gonna go one way or another. Prediction would be $6-$20.
Any thoughts are appreciated.
I have one gambling stock and FNMA is mine, I have a few thousand shares at 5.30 I bought it at the worst possible number, very similar to my sports betting technique. I think its going to be 2+ years until the government makes a decision on the companies direction, what the government is doing right now is 100% illegal and completely unheard of in the Western world. Conspiracy theorist couldn't make this up. For some reason I am more and more pessimistic about it's future, I bought it figuring I'll let the power house hedge funds fight the battle and grow the stock. A number of members of Congress and Senate have disclosed positions in Fannie and Freddy so wiping out shareholder equity isn't in their best interest. there is also a huge difference between owning the common vs. preferred shares, I own the common but would recommend the preferred (lol). Buffett doesn't own FNMA (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/28/warrenbuffett-on-fannie-freddie.aspx). I really wish I would have bought MNKD and FNMA. Best of luck and welcome to the club!
Reb I seem to disagree with you every time BUT I think that if anyone wants to learn about the markets they should first read a book about fundamental analysis and maybe later on get into technical. Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham is the oldest and most popular book on this subject (book is very old)
(With reference to FNMA see post #447 in this thread, I believe where we were in March is similar to where we are now....could be a quarter end coincidence but we will most likely see some steam let out of the current market...could have started yesterday (I believe it did)...I don't know where FNMA is going to end up but holding the common is not where I particularly am nor want to be, I don't see much happening with it before the next regime possibly (2016) and IMO there are still better plays out there on a speculative basis...GL going forward with it ;-)
lol Eug, that's what makes markets ;-) ...as far as the literature goes I come from more of a technical camp so thus the reason I recommended Murphy's book but each individual has to decide for themselves what works best for them.
Better plays like???
Thought this to be a good article and it also references your fundamentalist Graham:
https://www.retailinvestor360.com/biotech/256-a-featured-presentation-on-mannkind-corporation-s-revolutionary-diabetes-treatment.html
ehhhhhh --- it really is a compelling article to open a long position. I hate relying on the FDA to do anything right. I came to the office and wanted to buy it on the day that they suspended trading and then it was too late (I thought). What do you think happens to them if Al Mann passes away?
ehhhhhh --- it really is a compelling article to open a long position. I hate relying on the FDA to do anything right. I came to the office and wanted to buy it on the day that they suspended trading and then it was too late (I thought). What do you think happens to them if Al Mann passes away?
Sorry so late on my response but I appreciate your honesty and happy to always hear advice from people Like You, Reb,Wraps and of course to long a list to remember everyone and you guys are like a 10 I'm a 3/4 at best so all negative comments are welcome they're Obviously needed to learn.
I really didn't know what I was buying and looked again and took losing commission on both sides. So thanks again for your honesty.
There are some in the camp that he has been the stubborn one holding out on price and terms for partnership or buyout...so in effect it may actually cause a jump after an initial sell on the news type of thing...as far as his estate being in order, well lets just say I believe everything ends up in his foundation....having said all that, when I saw him at the shareholders meeting he was parking his car after driving himself and seemed to have a little pep in his step ;-)
Sam will most likely address this next week...
Cannot find any news