SweetJones55 NBA Total Play
sweetjones55
Senior Member
I will be releasing/posting a free service play on a NBA Total on here in the next 20 minutes to an hour. Writeup will be provided.
Comments
could not handle the traffic on this thread!!!
gl
Does it always drop/move 2 points when you release to your customers? Or did it drop now that you released it here on BT?
Good luck on the play.
My released total plays have been moving a significant amount like this all year.
I follow these plays and dont see many 2 point swings. Mostly 1/2 point is the norm.
Books are feasting on these moves. It's been a zoo out there.
None of my recently released total plays have moved just a 0.5 point. I released Clippers 2H Under 100 (100.5's were available) on Jan 27th which dropped to 99. The Nuggets Under 214 on Jan 14th dropped 1.5 points at Pinnacle to 212.5. Wizards Over 184 on Jan 10th went up to 186. Hawks Under 198 on Jan 6th dropped to 196.
Well, at least the market agreed with his plays there.
O yes, this is true. Normally it doesn't move within 1-2 seconds like RAS but give it 60-90 seconds on a released total and it does move.
Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 209.5 Points (x1)
I am going to be playing the Under 209.5 Points in the Nuggets/Timberwolves game. I think this total is highly inflated based on these two teams full seasons numbers and their two high scoring meetings against each another earlier this year and not so much their current forum. The Nuggets offense right now is a shell of itself, mainly due to the loss of PG Ty Lawson. In 5 games without Lawson this season, the Nuggets have scored 75, 98, 90, 80 and 103* (vs 76ers*) for an average of 89.2ppg. That is 14.1ppg less than their average of 103.3. Their Pace (possessions per game) has also seen a significant drop without Lawson in 5 games down from 99 to 96.8. Denver is one of the best fast break offenses in the NBA but without Lawson in 5 games they have only averaged 7 fast break points per game. To put that number into perspective, the Knicks are ranked dead last in fast break points at 7.9 a game. To make matters worse, both Nate Robinson and Andre Miller are inactive for tonights game. Last game, SG Randy Foye handled the ball mostly. He is extremely slow and not capable of running a fast break. They would also use SG Evan Fournier and SF Jordan Hamilton at times but neither looked comfortable handling the ball either. Foye injured his ankle which makes matters even worse for them as he will try to play through it. I see the Nuggets playing at a very slow pace with him running point and I don't see them being very efficient offensively.
The Timberwolves offense has also taken a hit as of late losing PF Nikola Pekovic and SG Kevin Martin. These two players combine for 37ppg, 35% of their offense. Neither are good defenders though so the teams defense has improved with them out. Rony Turiaf has given them a presence inside with several 3+ block games since starting in place of Pekovic. WIth Turiaf on the court, their defense is 4 points better in terms of points per possession while their offense is 14 points worse. Minnesota for the year is allowing 63.6% inside of 5FT, worst in the NBA, but in the last 8 games without Pekovic they are allowing just 55.5%, 6th best in the NBA.
Minnesota over the last 10 games is averaging just 98.6ppg, 7 points less than their season average. Their starting line up does not have much fire power right now. Their starting PG is Ricky Rubio who is arguably the worst scoring starting PG in the NBA shooting 35% for the season. The starting SG is currently Chase Buddinger, who missed half the season, and has struggled with his shot as well so far this year shooting a career low 35.5% from the field. C Turiaf provides nothing on the offensive end averaging just 4ppg. SF Brewer is really only a threat in transition and is just an average scorer at 11.4 points per game this season. He provides no floor spacing with his shooting and only gets one trip to the free-throw line once a game. Kevin Love is their only legit scoring option but he has had a few injuries lately and has not been shooting well either. Since returning from injury, he was 6-20 from the field, 0-6 from 3 against New Orleans and was 9-23 from the field, 1-6 from 3 against Houston. Minnesota can not rely on their bench for scoring either as they are ranked 27th in points per game at just 25.5 points per game and 28th in FG% at 39%.
I think Denver will have a difficult time getting to 95-98 points tonight in Minnesota. If they do end up in that range, Minnesota would have to score 112-115 in order to push this game over which i don't see happening. This is the last game before the all star break for both teams so I think you will see some defensive intensity from both sides. I think the fact that Denver will not be able to push the pace without Lawson will be the biggest x-factor in this game going under. An injured Foye, Evan Fournier and Jordan Hamilton are just not capable of running fast breaks as they are all very slow players with below average ball handling/passing skills. In their last game, they only had 3 fast break points against the Pacers. You will most likely see the Nuggets in a lot of half court situations offensively in which they will struggle. They can't run pick and roll with any of those players mentioned above. Faried is not a good option in the post and Hickson is just average. Foye is probably the best scoring option they have but he struggles getting off his own shot which he will have to do with Lawson out. SF Chandler can put up points but for the most part he does it inefficiently, shooting 42% on the year. Quincy Miller started last game for the first time and was horrible going 0-5 from the field and 0-2 at FT line. Denver's bench overall for the season has been good but the recent string of injuries leaves them having to start a lot of their bench pieces which in turn has lowered their bench scoring from 39.1ppg for the year down to 24.4ppg over the last 5 games, a 38% drop in scoring. I see this game ending with a combined score of around 205-207 points.
Nov 15 Cris opener 211 close 209.5 final score 117-113
Nov 27 Cris opener 212 close 213 final score 117-110
TODAY Cris opener 209 so basically everything you just wrote has already been baked into the opener
The real sharp guys go out of their way to not move the line and overall looks like some of these big groups are getting crushed. If I were you guys I would be upset about the lines moving, its killing your edge moving forward.
The total in the first game was 210 and second game was 212. Todays total I got at 209.5. I disagree with you in that everything in my writeup is only worth 1-2.5 points of a correction in the total down. That's basically just one shot. I think it should be adjusted more than that based on all the information I have compiled.
I think some of these moves create an edge if you can catch them at the right time.
I know Wraps and I was being sarcastic. It just seems like you and many others have pointed these same things out to him many times and he still posts here trying to make it seem as though he has an edge that no one else has.
A line with injuries as public as these two teams have clearly has that already factored in, its something his followers may not realize so it works for him.
Look at these totals in the 6 games without Ty Lawson so far. They've gone UNDER in 5 of the 6 games and each UNDER went under 5+ points, 3 by 10+ points, and the one game that went OVER barely got over. I think the public does think that linesmakers will factor in perfectly the value of a player on a total but it's not always the case.
02/10/14 @ Indiana L 80-119 Regular Season L 10.5 O 197 OVER by 2 points
01/31/14 Toronto L 90-100 Regular Season L 1 U 203.5 UNDER by 14.5 Points
01/29/14 Charlotte L 98-101 Regular Season L -7.5 U 205.5 UNDER by 6 points
12/13/13 Utah L 93-103 Regular Season L -10.5 U 201 UNDER by 5 points
12/09/13 @ Washington W 75-74 Regular Season L -1.5 U 196.5 UNDER by 47.5 points
12/07/13 @ Philadelphia W 103-92 Regular Season W -6.5 U 208 UNDER by 13 points
Betting the wrong way mid afternoon and at post isnt creating an edge its just losing. At least one big group has called it quits this season.
So like I said, GL moving forward...if you're moving the lines and are +EV, you're just killing your edge.
I think more groups will be calling it quits soon. Lots of new model inventions by newbies this year specifically have all been crushed by the odd's makers opener. A couple weeks ago the books literally Ripped their faces off sending them to Mobery st. for 5pt loans since they used up all their available credit with the banks. Single file please Bernanke is on his way.
I agree 100%
LMFAO
This was intended to be humor, right?
If by humor you meant their bets didn't move lines. Then yeah its humor.
That's a bold statement- I think lazy people just throw it around without feeling obligated to provide a shred of proof.
Don't you always fawn over Haralabos' "eye for the game"? So why immediately disparage someone else for focusing on short term trends like the one the OP described?
If the trend he's describing is real, isn't it least possible that the market has not yet caught up to it?
Nov 15 Cris opener 211 close 209.5 final score 117-113
Nov 27 Cris opener 212 close 213 final score 117-110
TODAY Cris opener 209 so basically everything you just wrote has already been baked into the opener
Indeed. OP feels that it has not been shaved enough, therefore he feels that it has not been baked into the starting line. Which may or may not be true. But it would be silly to claim definitively one way or the other, which was my point.