Betting Talk

Florida State/Auburn National Championship Game

2

Comments

  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Also, on the thread topic, by my numbers Auburn and Michigan St. are a pick-em FWIW. Dead even. Teams that can tackle can beat Auburn. I have Stanford about 3 points better on a neutral field. It should be a great game.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    ebemiss wrote: »
    Have the skins on my card as well today. Sometimes teams just quit. Sometimes I'm too stubborn to acknowledge that....

    Shanny's gotta go, I think he'll be coaching next year, just not in Washington.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    kane wrote: »
    Shanny's gotta go, I think he'll be coaching next year, just not in Washington.

    Weak minded QB with an old school coach. Just not a great combo. Plus RGIII hasn't been right physically all year. I wanted the Cowboys to hire him a few years back. Maybe he ends up there when they blow up.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    ebemiss wrote: »
    Weak minded QB with an old school coach. Just not a great combo. Plus RGIII hasn't been right physically all year. I wanted the Cowboys to hire him a few years back. Maybe he ends up there when they blow up.

    You're right, Shanny and RG haven't been on the same page since he's been there. I heard a rumor that the Texans would be interested if he got fired by Wash. As far as the 'Boys, they're not going anywhere with Garrett at the helm, he's another one who's gotta go
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    kane wrote: »
    You're right, Shanny and RG haven't been on the same page since he's been there. I heard a rumor that the Texans would be interested if he got fired by Wash. As far as the 'Boys, they're not going anywhere with Garrett at the helm, he's another one who's gotta go

    It's comical with Garrett. Another puppet for Jerry. When he was calling plays he couldn't get the play in from the sideline as they'd take delay of game penalties or multiple time outs a game. Now he's trying to get involved again. He's a number 2. Not a number 1. Same as Kubiak was for Houston. Too many of them running teams right now. That's why there's parity in the league IMO
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    ebemiss wrote: »
    It's comical with Garrett. Another puppet for Jerry. When he was calling plays he couldn't get the play in from the sideline as they'd take delay of game penalties or multiple time outs a game. Now he's trying to get involved again. He's a number 2. Not a number 1. Same as Kubiak was for Houston. Too many of them running teams right now. That's why there's parity in the league IMO

    When Jerry took the play calling duties away from Garrett before the season, you knew he was on the hot seat. If they don't make the playoffs in a weak division, he's almost assuredly gone, he might be fired even with a playoff birth and a first round exit. I know Dallas won a SB with Barry Switzer, but I wonder if Jerry would have stepped back (no chance of that obv) and just let Jimmy Johnson run everything, how many more rings would they have won? I don't know who their next coach would be, but as long as Jerry insists on running the team his way, It might not even matter who coaches them. Good talking to ya Ebe.
  • cabster13cabster13 Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Wow didn't mean to spur the discussion on who should play who but it has been interesting. As far as the thread topic of a line on the game I saw a report a few minutes ago that it opened offshore at FSU -7 and has gone as high as -9.5. Guess my estimate last night was fairly close. I saw no mention of a total line set but saw two college football guys on ESPN both like the game in the 75 total point range. Gonna be interesting...
  • Chisox6Chisox6 Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    The total is around 65. You had excellent guesses.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    newcombe wrote: »
    I was making a shitty example I understand that but I am just stating that the big 10 is not very good. its that simple. buckeyes were never even close to a top 5 team and sparty is certainly not a top 10 team. sparty tough yes but their offense against even a decent defense gets shut down. great RB and solid D.

    Spartans O pretty much non-existent. Take team total UN vs good Stanford D.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Michigan state has a legitimate argument for getting in the title game IMO. They'd crush Auburn.


    Just as stated, sparty the best team in the country, hands down. Absolute travesty that they were left out of the whole enchilada.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Just as stated, sparty the best team in the country, hands down. Absolute travesty that they were left out of the whole enchilada.

    Give me Florida State pk on a neutral for my mortgage, plz.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Give me Florida State pk on a neutral for my mortgage, plz.

    What about auburn? Sparty crushes them all day long
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    What about auburn? Sparty crushes them all day long

    "Sparty crushes Auburn" a SLIGHTLY different statement than "Sparty the best team in the country, hands down. " I'd bet my house on FSU pk, and pretty close to that on Alabama pk.

    MSU/Auburn close to a toss up imo.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    We just don't know how good fsu is, big ten such a better conference than the clowning acc. Sparty would control the LOS
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    We just don't know how good fsu is, big ten such a better conference than the clowning acc. Sparty would control the LOS

    Most rating systems have FSU/MSU SOS pretty much the same, and their conferences rated pretty much the same as well.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Most rating systems have FSU/MSU SOS pretty much the same, and their conferences rated pretty much the same as well.


    Ratings, schmatings.

    Who would you take in a matchup of the second place teams from each conference? 3rd place? Fourth? All the way down, the B1G is MUCH the best.

    It's just unfortunate that we can't see the matchup occur.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Ratings, schmatings.

    Who would you take in a matchup of the second place teams from each conference? 3rd place? Fourth? All the way down, the B1G is MUCH the best.

    It's just unfortunate that we can't see the matchup occur.

    If only the ratings systems had such sophisticated techniques, maybe they'd be better.

    My argument, since it seems that we're going to ignore all SOS/conference schmatings/computers/projected lines that would give us FSU -10/losses to ND/etc, would boil down to this: FSU has much more NFL talent. Bigger, stronger, faster tends to win.

    Auburn hangs with FSU next week, I may have to change my tune. FSU bitch slaps them, as I expect they will, I would think you'd have to change yours.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Some good shit tomorrow in cbb, btw.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    If only the ratings systems had such sophisticated techniques, maybe they'd be better.

    My argument, since it seems that we're going to ignore all SOS/conference schmatings/computers/projected lines that would give us FSU -10/losses to ND/etc, would boil down to this: FSU has much more NFL talent. Bigger, stronger, faster tends to win.

    Auburn hangs with FSU next week, I may have to change my tune. FSU bitch slaps them, as I expect they will, I would think you'd have to change yours.


    The entire life and death at BC game just makes me raise my eyebrows at fsu. Maybe they really are a great club, I just can't tell by their results. And I'm not sure that a game against fraudulent auburn is going to tell us anything.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Michigan state has a legitimate argument for getting in the title game IMO. They'd crush Auburn.

    I admit I thought this was a terrible post when you made it....now I'm not so sure MSU isn't the best team in the country this year
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    I admit I thought this was a terrible post when you made it....now I'm not so sure MSU isn't the best team in the country this year

    Yeah, I was just going to post pretty much the same thing.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    Thx guys. Maybe some magazine (ala penn state in the mid 90's) will declare Sparty national champions and they can fly a banner at their stadium
  • mjc257mjc257 Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Holy overreaction to recency! Michigan State best team in country? C'mon guys.

    Not saying I wouldn't bet them against any of these other elite teams but that's all dependent on how they would get priced. There's just simply no way they were the best team in country.
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    mjc257 wrote: »
    There's just simply no way they were the best team in country.

    I honestly thought there was very little chance that Auburn would hang with FSU, that OU would beat Bama by double digits, etc., and was wrong. Saying "there is simply now way", though, is even more dangerous. Especially in the absence of an actual argument explaining why it is "impossible".
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited January 2014
    Sparty absolutely dominates either of those fraud teams, completely stuffs them both at the LOS. Then there's the coaching.

    Mich state 27 fsu 9
    Mich state 24 auburn 3
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Sparty absolutely dominates either of those fraud teams, completely stuffs them both at the LOS. Then there's the coaching.

    Mich state 27 fsu 9
    Mich state 24 auburn 3

    So in other words, slam the under, dog ml, and don't watch because it's going to be the worst game ever.

    Edit: Mich St probably wouldnt be a dog to Auburn
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited January 2014
    Didn't see the first 2 1/2 qtrs so I don't know what FSU was doing offensively, apparently nothing by the score. The rest of the game I saw them do to Auburn's D what everyone else did all year so nothing earth shattering. I would have rather seen Alabama in the game so we could have seen them play against something they didn't see all year, a great defense. What I did like was FSU winning a game "no one" thought they could win, a tight 4th qtr game. They were repeatedly punched in the face for the first time all year and didn't bitch out.

    Every team has their hiccup game, sometimes they still win, sometimes they don't. BC is talked about a lot for FSU, but what about this one.

    http://www.msuspartans.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2013-2014/pur-msu.html

    WTF was that? 10 times worse than the BC game for FSU. Won't hold the WMU and S Fla games in the first two weeks pre-QB change against them but it does bring up the body of work vs current form question up. It's never been about the best team, always about who is most deserving(aka best record/luckiest). As long as you don't allow 8-16 teams play in the playoff, it will always be that way, and that is body of work. If you don't position yourself early, it's too hard to jump teams late. That's what happened to MSU. They struggled against two terrible teams, beat a FCS team, lost to an average team, then didn't get a chance to play another true top 25 team until the Big 10 title game. They were "Boise St'ed" by bad luck conf scheduling. The year they don't play Wiscy is the year they needed to play Wiscy. I don't think they are better than FSU but they are better than Auburn.

    This year matchups were more important than ever. I don't think there was any one team that you can say was hands down THE team. I think there was a kryptonite team out there for everyone. If there was ever a time for 8/16 teams in a playoff, it was this year.
  • mjc257mjc257 Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    I honestly thought there was very little chance that Auburn would hang with FSU, that OU would beat Bama by double digits, etc., and was wrong. Saying "there is simply now way", though, is even more dangerous. Especially in the absence of an actual argument explaining why it is "impossible".

    I'm saying there is simply no way, because there is simply no way. You want an argument supporting that? Here you go…

    So Mich St closed as a 5-pt underdog to Ohio St and 6.5/7-pt underdog to Stanford on neutral fields in their last two games. How can they be the best team just based on that? You’re telling me oddsmakers and more importantly sharp bettors all have Michigan State mispriced by 10+ points?

    What the hell evidence is there that they are the best team? I can't believe we're having this debate. I think everything being posted here is just to get a rise out people because no one remotely sharp could truly believe Michigan State is the best team in the country. Could they beat any team in the country on any given day? Sure. But they’d be an underdog against several other teams.

    I like this Michigan St team, don't get me wrong. I bet them against Ohio St and several times during the season. But I'd be cutting in line to lay 7 with FSU against Mich St on a neutral field.
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    mjc257 wrote: »
    So Mich St closed as a 5-pt underdog to Ohio St and 6.5/7-pt underdog to Stanford on neutral fields in their last two games. How can they be the best team just based on that? You’re telling me oddsmakers and more importantly sharp bettors all have Michigan State mispriced by 10+ points?

    I'd be cutting in line to lay 7 with FSU against Mich St on a neutral field.

    Maybe not 10 points off, but based on their domination of the two, I think it is safe to say Mich St. was severely undervalued against both OSU and Stanford. The final scores didn't truly reflect the degree of domination, IMO.
    I too would lay FSU -7 on a neutral a neutral field without the layoff. Quite honestly, though, I thought FSU looked like shit with the 30 days off, and I do think MSU would have had a very good chance against them with adequate time to prep for their offense. Mich St D>>>>>>Auburn D in my opinion.

    I never said I thought MSU was the best team, all I am saying is I also wouldn't speak in absolutes and say "there is simply no way".
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    remember too that this buckeye team that they apparently dominated wasn't worth 2 pieces of dog shit IMO. great win vs Stanford no doubt. they certainly played outstanding vs a worthy opponent but that's really about it.

    its simple, you can't pinpoint who the best team is this year without a tourney as stevie said but as another stated above, sparty would be a dog all day vs a lot of teams in the country. that speaks volumes.
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