? for Hockey Guys
ComicBookGuy
Member
Are there other reputable books that have -1/+1 goal lines besides 5 Dimes?
Comments
Re-read Obi's post. Every book has a -1 line, you just need to follow his advice and construct it yourself whether it's for scalping or just betting.
FWIW, you're probably giving away your EV by scalping rather than just taking the off-lines your local has.
I don't see how I get that same result splitting the $500 between the ML at -125 and -1.5 at +243. If I bet $250 on the ML and $250 on -1.5 my three outcomes are +257.5 for a St Louis win, 0 for a St Louis win by 1 and -62.50 for a St. Louis loss. In my first scenario I can't lose $.
I follow what you're saying about just betting the off lines straight and it is something I am tracking. The max I can bet with the local is $500 so I couldn't do both.
More importantly, unless $500 is more than your BR can afford, if 5D has something like -1 +158, you should just bet +1 -110 with your local and forget about the other side.
The $500 is not an issue and I just started tracking this as I try to get set up with the local, but using yesterday as an example if you would have used the method I discussed there were 8 plays that netted +480. Just betting the ones that 5 Dimes would charge -150 or more to get +1 you would have been 1-3-1 for an $1150 loss.
Betting straight when the +1 would be -150 or more is something that I will track all season if I can get set up with this guy but I like the theory of not possibly being able to lose $. To that end if there is another book that has 1 goal lines please let me know.
My advice, stop worrying about betting the other side elsewhere and just bet your normal amount at this local.
Don't slam the local on these lines, long slow bleed. If you start dropping $500 on these bad lines every night he's not going to pay you.
You don't split it. You proportion your bet so you break even if St Louis wins by 1. It doesn't mean you will get the same line that is offered as a -1 line. The main reason is -1.5 lines are awful EV 99% of the time.
Example above ML -125 PL -1.5 +243
Bet 100 on the PL +243 100-243
For the ML to cover the PL risk, 100 * 1.25(if ML is +, divide) = 125
A ML bet 125-100 and a PL bet 100-243, will give you the following
StL by 2+ 225-343
Stl by 1 push
St Louis loss 225-0 which = Stl -1 +152
To make the bets equal to 1 unit, in your case $500, 500/225 = 2.222. Multiply bets by 2.222. ML bet is approx 278 to win 222.4, PL is 222 to win 539.46.