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ComicBookGuyComicBookGuy Member
edited October 2013 in Sports Betting
Are there other reputable books that have -1/+1 goal lines besides 5 Dimes?

Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    Any book which has a Moneyline and a -1.5 Puckline (=Runline) is basically offering you a -1 line. What you have to do is bet 1 unit on the ML and 1 unit on the Puckline simultaneously for the same game. If your team wins with a 1-goal difference, you 'push' on your bets, as the ML bet won and the PL bet lost.
  • ComicBookGuyComicBookGuy Member
    edited October 2013
    Thanks, but I think I've found a local who keeps a consistent -1 -110/+1 -110 line. If there are books like 5 dimes that have a 1 goal spread there are some good middles.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited October 2013
    ComicBookGuy wrote: »
    Thanks, but I think I've found a local who keeps a consistent -1 -110/+1 -110 line. If there are books like 5 dimes that have a 1 goal spread there are some good middles.

    Re-read Obi's post. Every book has a -1 line, you just need to follow his advice and construct it yourself whether it's for scalping or just betting.

    FWIW, you're probably giving away your EV by scalping rather than just taking the off-lines your local has.
  • ComicBookGuyComicBookGuy Member
    edited October 2013
    Thanks Goats. Bear with me as I give you an example on tonight's St. Louis/Winnipeg game to see where the flaw in my thinking is. If I bet $500 with 5 dimes on St Louis -1 +158 and 500 on Winnipeg +1 -110 with the local my three outcomes are +240 for a St Louis win by more than 1,and 0 for a win by 1 or a loss.
    I don't see how I get that same result splitting the $500 between the ML at -125 and -1.5 at +243. If I bet $250 on the ML and $250 on -1.5 my three outcomes are +257.5 for a St Louis win, 0 for a St Louis win by 1 and -62.50 for a St. Louis loss. In my first scenario I can't lose $.
    I follow what you're saying about just betting the off lines straight and it is something I am tracking. The max I can bet with the local is $500 so I couldn't do both.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited October 2013
    I believe you have to play with the -1.5 and ML amounts to make the bets equivalent to a -1 line, not play equal amounts on each.

    More importantly, unless $500 is more than your BR can afford, if 5D has something like -1 +158, you should just bet +1 -110 with your local and forget about the other side.
  • ComicBookGuyComicBookGuy Member
    edited October 2013
    I believe even if you play with the amounts you will end up with a net loss on either a St Louis win by 1 or a loss . I've tried a bunch of combos and they all left a loss on one of those two outcomes.
    The $500 is not an issue and I just started tracking this as I try to get set up with the local, but using yesterday as an example if you would have used the method I discussed there were 8 plays that netted +480. Just betting the ones that 5 Dimes would charge -150 or more to get +1 you would have been 1-3-1 for an $1150 loss.
    Betting straight when the +1 would be -150 or more is something that I will track all season if I can get set up with this guy but I like the theory of not possibly being able to lose $. To that end if there is another book that has 1 goal lines please let me know.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    ComicBookGuy wrote: »
    I believe even if you play with the amounts you will end up with a net loss on either a St Louis win by 1 or a loss . I've tried a bunch of combos and they all left a loss on one of those two outcomes.
    The $500 is not an issue and I just started tracking this as I try to get set up with the local, but using yesterday as an example if you would have used the method I discussed there were 8 plays that netted +480. Just betting the ones that 5 Dimes would charge -150 or more to get +1 you would have been 1-3-1 for an $1150 loss.
    Betting straight when the +1 would be -150 or more is something that I will track all season if I can get set up with this guy but I like the theory of not possibly being able to lose $. To that end if there is another book that has 1 goal lines please let me know.

    My advice, stop worrying about betting the other side elsewhere and just bet your normal amount at this local.

    Don't slam the local on these lines, long slow bleed. If you start dropping $500 on these bad lines every night he's not going to pay you.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited October 2013
    Don't waste time tracking short term results, if you're beating the no-vig line by huge amounts (like your example), it's going to be +EV in the long run.
  • ComicBookGuyComicBookGuy Member
    edited October 2013
    Thanks everyone. I appreciate the input.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited October 2013
    ComicBookGuy wrote: »
    Thanks Goats. Bear with me as I give you an example on tonight's St. Louis/Winnipeg game to see where the flaw in my thinking is. If I bet $500 with 5 dimes on St Louis -1 +158 and 500 on Winnipeg +1 -110 with the local my three outcomes are +240 for a St Louis win by more than 1,and 0 for a win by 1 or a loss.
    I don't see how I get that same result splitting the $500 between the ML at -125 and -1.5 at +243. If I bet $250 on the ML and $250 on -1.5 my three outcomes are +257.5 for a St Louis win, 0 for a St Louis win by 1 and -62.50 for a St. Louis loss. In my first scenario I can't lose $.
    I follow what you're saying about just betting the off lines straight and it is something I am tracking. The max I can bet with the local is $500 so I couldn't do both.

    You don't split it. You proportion your bet so you break even if St Louis wins by 1. It doesn't mean you will get the same line that is offered as a -1 line. The main reason is -1.5 lines are awful EV 99% of the time.

    Example above ML -125 PL -1.5 +243

    Bet 100 on the PL +243 100-243
    For the ML to cover the PL risk, 100 * 1.25(if ML is +, divide) = 125

    A ML bet 125-100 and a PL bet 100-243, will give you the following

    StL by 2+ 225-343
    Stl by 1 push
    St Louis loss 225-0 which = Stl -1 +152

    To make the bets equal to 1 unit, in your case $500, 500/225 = 2.222. Multiply bets by 2.222. ML bet is approx 278 to win 222.4, PL is 222 to win 539.46.
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