What's your read on Detroit/ Arizona line? Im looking heavy at AZ at +2.5
Would lean that way as well. Don't see the line doing much into the close, but likely continued biding on the Cards if it were to move a decent amount one way.
The only one I was interested had the posting number taken out on the overnight.
Would like prefer to be overly cautious on totals early on to get a better read on teams tempo's and risk profiles.
I had feared the Bucs line would struggle getting confirmation. The market had stretched the Saints off of inflated baselines in the past against the Bucs. There was a fight on the 3 at Pinnacle all week, and closed centered around the middle of that trading range.
Healthy confirmation out of the two other underdogs. The market called out the books on being overzealous with their reaction to the Broncos and Giants week 1 play. The hook remains attached to the 6 at Pinnacle on the Steelers, but picked off at other shops. Still plenty of money to come through in this game. May see some back and forth action into the close, but still think the hooks will be likely gone by kickoff.
I already told you whats going on. Plenty of people respect BG enough that they are going to max anything he posts within 2 seconds if they see it.
Thank you. If you are familiar with BG, have a history with him, and can attest to his ability, I feel much more comfortable.
BG - Please accept my apology. It was an honest error. I do have EST set on my settings on both sites, but there must still be something amiss there.
I had several debates with a fellow poster about my concerns and whether I should voice them. Cause I did not take lightly what I was going to write or the questions I was going to ask. We went back and forth and I said I just need to know if this guy is creating steam or chasing it. Here my ignorance hurt me as I had never heard of you before your join date of April 2013. There were just so many small things, that i mentioned earlier, that created the larger concern for me.
As we all know, in American Football, turnovers are a random occurrence which cannot be predicted. They can resemble huge swings in points scored or points allowed during a game. Of the 5 sides you picked so far, 4 of them lost the turnover battle, with TB/NO in week 2 being the exception and also being the only winner. How do you deal with such random plays going forward when making picks?
As we all know, in American Football, turnovers are a random occurrence which cannot be predicted. They can resemble huge swings in points scored or points allowed during a game. Of the 5 sides you picked so far, 4 of them lost the turnover battle, with TB/NO in week 2 being the exception and also being the only winner. How do you deal with such random plays going forward when making picks?
Turnovers are not completely random as there is some predictive nature to them, but certainly very low for a variable possessing such a daunting influence on outcomes of games. Best way to combat randomness is accurately evaluating the more predictive aspects of the game and time.
As unsettling as it is to have a -11 turnover ratio in your 5 side bets, I would be much more concerned if my current ATS coincided with a much lower negative (or positive) turnover differential, as it suggests the near non-predictive is the driving factor of the short term down slide.
NFL Week 3
Pinnacle Price at Post
Sides
Redskins -1.5 -111
Panthers +1 -106
Totals
Packers/Bengals Over 48 -105
Jets/Bills Under 39 -110
Current Pinnacle Price
Sides
Redskins -1.5 +117
Panthers +1 +105
Totals
Packers/Bengals Over 48 -128
Jets/Bills Under 39 -110
Quite a surprising week in terms of market pricing, as the market has elected to aggressively move some teams valuations in surprising directions. A couple of which has appeared to resulted in negative confirmation on posted plays. Early in the season when markets are very impressionable, teams valuations become highly elastic. Valuation moves predominantly result in baseline moves as opposed to moves within a team range (a typical byproduct of specific game fundamentals). Being so impressionable early on provides a platform for teams valuations to really spike or crash if teams provide a product deviating from expectations. This is what makes the strong support on the Giants all that more confusing. After two weeks of applying bearish valuations on the Giants that resulted in a similar baseline valuation to that of the Panthers (and receiving result confirmation in those games) the market has elected to reverse course. In past years, it was quite common for the market to try to get in front of production on the Giants, resulting in valuation upgrades in times of struggle/back against the wall situations. Looks like some of that is coming into plays again. Panthers have not shown enough "bad" for a breakdown in valuation like this. Will be interested to see how the market handles the close.
Early movement supporting the Redskins fully retraced, as the market appears much more hesitant to support a team they deemed solid prior to season start that is struggling in this game. But the opener reflected a material pricing change from prior weeks valuation. Would not be surprised to see market support on the Redskins heading into the close either on Bush news or intolerance to stretch out their valuation on the downside which current pricing applies.
Better confirmation on the totals. Opening total on the Bengals appeared to reflect a breakdown in composition to how the market breaks down the valuation composition on their offense and defense while keeping the aggregate team valuation consistent. The market has been fickle with this composition in the past resulting in some depressed totals in Bengals games. But books appeared overly influenced by Monday Night on their opener, and the market is taking note. Still room to the upside below 50.
Bit surprised the market has not been more aggressive on the downside on the Bills/Jets total. Risk profiles on offense should support a low scoring game. Total suggests continued undervaluation on both teams defenses.
Bit surprised the market has not been more aggressive on the downside on the Bills/Jets total. Risk profiles on offense should support a low scoring game. Total suggests continued undervaluation on both teams defenses.
Surprising how? I had the opener at 42.5. Would have posted Over earlier but BG put the Under out there and given the support he has here as one that creates steam i was holding out for 38 or 37.
Game was perplexing for me though as the Jets D looks real, but the Bills D is horrid. If Geno stays healthy, he will have more attempts by game 4 than dirty sanchez had all of last year. jets offense completely different know with a qb they trust.
NFL Week 3
Pinnacle Price at Post
Sides
Redskins -1.5 -111
Panthers +1 -106
Totals
Packers/Bengals Over 48 -105
Jets/Bills Under 39 -110
Current Pinnacle Price
Sides
Redskins -1.5 +111*
Panthers +1 -103*
Totals
Packers/Bengals Over 48 -118*
Jets/Bills Under 39 +116
The market will close out both side plays well off of lows applied earlier this morning, reducing negative confirmation. But closing prices still represent a surprising statements made on valuations for the Giants and Redskins. Bills total took a surprising turn for the worse, although there is still 3 hours for the market to resettle. Some strange movement across board this week. The market has yet to cement a convincing interpretation on some of these teams out of the gates.
Random question here- there was some chatter in another thread about how some of the major movers for NFL may be off the map this year, making market manipulation easier for the remaining syndicate(s). On topics like that I have a hard time weeding out the BS from the truth. Thought I'd ask though- are you seeing more late moves this year than normal that might support the theory of this kind of syndicate "monopoly"? Just curious.
Random question here- there was some chatter in another thread about how some of the major movers for NFL may be off the map this year, making market manipulation easier for the remaining syndicate(s). On topics like that I have a hard time weeding out the BS from the truth. Thought I'd ask though- are you seeing more late moves this year than normal that might support the theory of this kind of syndicate "monopoly"? Just curious.
Had mentioned in my MLB thread earlier this year that the screens may be acting differently this year. Underlying dynamics may be different from sport to sport, but end result shares a similar conclusion. The screen is acting less and less like a platform for price discovery. The late movement may not be there because it wants to be (or there to paint). The lack of interconnectedness in team pricing out of the gates is predominately a byproduct of this transformation.
Had mentioned in my MLB thread earlier this year that the screens may be acting differently this year. Underlying dynamics may be different from sport to sport, but end result shares a similar conclusion. The screen is acting less and less like a platform for price discovery. The late movement may not be there because it wants to be (or there to paint). The lack of interconnectedness in team pricing out of the gates is predominately a byproduct of this transformation.
BG, you're obviously a very smart guy and a super sharp sports handicapper, but (bet you saw the coming) I feel like I need a Buffet to English translator for some of your posts. Are you intentionally trying to be vague or is this your general method of communication? I don't mean this to come across wrong, it's just very hard to understand what you're saying and I realize part of that is me not having as good of a grasp of the English language as you.
And to add, I want to understand what you're saying because I know it's extremely valuable.
BG, you're obviously a very smart guy and a super sharp sports handicapper, but (bet you saw the coming) I feel like I need a Buffet to English translator for some of your posts. Are you intentionally trying to be vague or is this your general method of communication? I don't mean this to come across wrong, it's just very hard to understand what you're saying and I realize part of that is me not having as good of a grasp of the English language as you.
And to add, I want to understand what you're saying because I know it's extremely valuable.
I agree--I consider myself to be a fairly intelligent, erudite person, but sometimes, I too, feel the need to have BG's comments/explanations deciphered. I believe it's mostly, that he is so well-versed in the vernacular of sports betting, that I do not understand some of what he is saying
Comments
Would lean that way as well. Don't see the line doing much into the close, but likely continued biding on the Cards if it were to move a decent amount one way.
The only one I was interested had the posting number taken out on the overnight.
Would like prefer to be overly cautious on totals early on to get a better read on teams tempo's and risk profiles.
Pinnacle Price at Post
Sides
Bucs +3 +104
Giants +4.5 -107
Steelers +7 -107
Current Pinnacle Price
Sides
Bucs +3 +103*
Giants +4.5 -123
Steelers +7 -126
*closing price
I had feared the Bucs line would struggle getting confirmation. The market had stretched the Saints off of inflated baselines in the past against the Bucs. There was a fight on the 3 at Pinnacle all week, and closed centered around the middle of that trading range.
Healthy confirmation out of the two other underdogs. The market called out the books on being overzealous with their reaction to the Broncos and Giants week 1 play. The hook remains attached to the 6 at Pinnacle on the Steelers, but picked off at other shops. Still plenty of money to come through in this game. May see some back and forth action into the close, but still think the hooks will be likely gone by kickoff.
Actually see some value there, but would expect the market to provide a better entry point some time during the week.
Thank you. If you are familiar with BG, have a history with him, and can attest to his ability, I feel much more comfortable.
BG - Please accept my apology. It was an honest error. I do have EST set on my settings on both sites, but there must still be something amiss there.
I had several debates with a fellow poster about my concerns and whether I should voice them. Cause I did not take lightly what I was going to write or the questions I was going to ask. We went back and forth and I said I just need to know if this guy is creating steam or chasing it. Here my ignorance hurt me as I had never heard of you before your join date of April 2013. There were just so many small things, that i mentioned earlier, that created the larger concern for me.
So again I apologize for the drama.
GL the rest of the way.
As we all know, in American Football, turnovers are a random occurrence which cannot be predicted. They can resemble huge swings in points scored or points allowed during a game. Of the 5 sides you picked so far, 4 of them lost the turnover battle, with TB/NO in week 2 being the exception and also being the only winner. How do you deal with such random plays going forward when making picks?
As unsettling as it is to have a -11 turnover ratio in your 5 side bets, I would be much more concerned if my current ATS coincided with a much lower negative (or positive) turnover differential, as it suggests the near non-predictive is the driving factor of the short term down slide.
Hopefully it evens out a bit more going forward.
Sorry, but we don't allow that here. Thanks.
Pinnacle Price at Post
Sides
Redskins -1.5 -111
Panthers +1 -106
Totals
Packers/Bengals Over 48 -105
Jets/Bills Under 39 -110
Current Pinnacle Price
Sides
Redskins -1.5 +117
Panthers +1 +105
Totals
Packers/Bengals Over 48 -128
Jets/Bills Under 39 -110
Quite a surprising week in terms of market pricing, as the market has elected to aggressively move some teams valuations in surprising directions. A couple of which has appeared to resulted in negative confirmation on posted plays. Early in the season when markets are very impressionable, teams valuations become highly elastic. Valuation moves predominantly result in baseline moves as opposed to moves within a team range (a typical byproduct of specific game fundamentals). Being so impressionable early on provides a platform for teams valuations to really spike or crash if teams provide a product deviating from expectations. This is what makes the strong support on the Giants all that more confusing. After two weeks of applying bearish valuations on the Giants that resulted in a similar baseline valuation to that of the Panthers (and receiving result confirmation in those games) the market has elected to reverse course. In past years, it was quite common for the market to try to get in front of production on the Giants, resulting in valuation upgrades in times of struggle/back against the wall situations. Looks like some of that is coming into plays again. Panthers have not shown enough "bad" for a breakdown in valuation like this. Will be interested to see how the market handles the close.
Early movement supporting the Redskins fully retraced, as the market appears much more hesitant to support a team they deemed solid prior to season start that is struggling in this game. But the opener reflected a material pricing change from prior weeks valuation. Would not be surprised to see market support on the Redskins heading into the close either on Bush news or intolerance to stretch out their valuation on the downside which current pricing applies.
Better confirmation on the totals. Opening total on the Bengals appeared to reflect a breakdown in composition to how the market breaks down the valuation composition on their offense and defense while keeping the aggregate team valuation consistent. The market has been fickle with this composition in the past resulting in some depressed totals in Bengals games. But books appeared overly influenced by Monday Night on their opener, and the market is taking note. Still room to the upside below 50.
Bit surprised the market has not been more aggressive on the downside on the Bills/Jets total. Risk profiles on offense should support a low scoring game. Total suggests continued undervaluation on both teams defenses.
Just moved to 41 on bookmaker, very surprising
Surprising how? I had the opener at 42.5. Would have posted Over earlier but BG put the Under out there and given the support he has here as one that creates steam i was holding out for 38 or 37.
Game was perplexing for me though as the Jets D looks real, but the Bills D is horrid. If Geno stays healthy, he will have more attempts by game 4 than dirty sanchez had all of last year. jets offense completely different know with a qb they trust.
Pinnacle Price at Post
Sides
Redskins -1.5 -111
Panthers +1 -106
Totals
Packers/Bengals Over 48 -105
Jets/Bills Under 39 -110
Current Pinnacle Price
Sides
Redskins -1.5 +111*
Panthers +1 -103*
Totals
Packers/Bengals Over 48 -118*
Jets/Bills Under 39 +116
The market will close out both side plays well off of lows applied earlier this morning, reducing negative confirmation. But closing prices still represent a surprising statements made on valuations for the Giants and Redskins. Bills total took a surprising turn for the worse, although there is still 3 hours for the market to resettle. Some strange movement across board this week. The market has yet to cement a convincing interpretation on some of these teams out of the gates.
Go Panthers!!!
BTW... you can blame Billy W for half of it. Lex Luther at work.
Had mentioned in my MLB thread earlier this year that the screens may be acting differently this year. Underlying dynamics may be different from sport to sport, but end result shares a similar conclusion. The screen is acting less and less like a platform for price discovery. The late movement may not be there because it wants to be (or there to paint). The lack of interconnectedness in team pricing out of the gates is predominately a byproduct of this transformation.
BG, you're obviously a very smart guy and a super sharp sports handicapper, but (bet you saw the coming) I feel like I need a Buffet to English translator for some of your posts. Are you intentionally trying to be vague or is this your general method of communication? I don't mean this to come across wrong, it's just very hard to understand what you're saying and I realize part of that is me not having as good of a grasp of the English language as you.
And to add, I want to understand what you're saying because I know it's extremely valuable.
I get your point, but if you ever want to see more of them check them doing a Blackjack skit and Craps skit it's funny stuff.
I agree--I consider myself to be a fairly intelligent, erudite person, but sometimes, I too, feel the need to have BG's comments/explanations deciphered. I believe it's mostly, that he is so well-versed in the vernacular of sports betting, that I do not understand some of what he is saying
It was at multiple shops including BM for the guidelines...
BM (pacific time)
09/25/13 02:11:41pm -2-110 +2-110
09/25/13 02:11:40pm -2-109 +2-111
09/25/13 02:11:30pm -2½-109 +2½-111
09/25/13 05:32:35am -2½-110 +2½-110
09/24/13 10:48:42pm -2½-109 +2½-111
09/24/13 04:58:41pm -2½-110 +2½-110
09/22/13 01:40:44pm -2-110 +2-110
09/22/13 01:40:43pm -2-108 +2-112
09/22/13 01:40:11pm -2½-108 +2½-112
09/22/13 01:39:14pm -2½-110 +2½-110
If you're unaware, you can click on any game from the Live Odds page we recently added to get line histories like that one.