Are there any legit services out there?
elwayisgod
Senior Member
Seriously, I know RAS is legit, it's just not for me as I can never get the plays in fast enough and end up having huge variances in lines.
Are there any other football services that are worth a darn?
Are there any other football services that are worth a darn?
Comments
Generally true, but your statement is too absolute IMO. No reason not to pay for a legit, winning service like RAS or StevieY if you can get down on their plays. You might be able to find their plays for free, but usually not before they have created steam.
This discussion was held last year around this time too. The answer is basically: no. As in: NOOOOOOO!. 95% are downright shady. The other 4.5% were good in flashes, but had trouble keeping records straight. They couldn't prove that they were +EV in the long term.
My opinion: Look for StevieY and Buffetgambler for long term profitability (and remember, that's with negative variance included)
Good Luck
Alternatively, start a little post-up operation and reap the rewards of the multitude of services selling their picks.
Good Luck
One thing that strikes me about your post- if you're after more consistency, gambling is definitely not something you want to be involved in, even if you are a long term winner. On a daily basis, it is virtually impossible to tell the difference between a 54% bettor's record versus a coin flipper. They look the same from "up close." Point being- if you care at all about money, there will always be weeks that look like a "disaster." And if you don't, nothing is a disaster. Making +EV (positive expected value) bets is half the picture, the other equally important part is your relationship with money.
As far as money management, I'd put down a fixed bankroll- say $1000, or whatever you can absolutely afford to part with (i.e. you would not blink an eye if it disappeared immediately), and bet exactly 1 or 2% of it on each play- but ALWAYS the same percent, no matter how good of a play you think it is. And as the season goes along, increase your wager amounts when you win, and- more importantly- decrease them when you lose. Be consistent, always. Even if your bets are -EV, this will give you a better control and restraint. And if your bets are +EV, it's the "correct" way to grow your roll. GL.
I know you said you can't get down fast enough anyways, but even if you could, you definitely shouldn't be buying RAS football if you're only betting $100/game.
Nope and here is why.
I love telling this story, can't imagine other people not being sick of it though. So when i had the opportunity to start charging for plays, i e-mailed Edward to pick his brain. Now I had been a member in good standing here at BT, but still, who the fuck am i? RAS cranking out hundreds of thousands of dollars yearly, but still answered my initial e-mail. on top of that, Edward also kept up the dialogue for a few weeks as questions arose. i was then, and am now, nobody of distinction, but he took the time to help me out. so much respect for RAS!!
So i run this service for 3 years, hit 57%, use multiple independent monitor sites and at the start of the 4th year, i had less subscribers returning. it was not worth my time and effort any longer.
it is the theory of Sharp money in the Market, but in reverse. theory goes that eventually Sharp/Smart money will overwhelm public money until nothing is left of the public, paraphrased of course, hopefully you get the idea. in capping, your performance means nothing, but your marketing and money invested therein does.
everything Ed told me could/would happen did. the market is so completely saturated with cappers, that unless you have vast amounts of money to invest in marketing, gaining a foothold will be next to impossible. anyone trying to break into the business now faces an uphill battle like you would not believe. if you aren't already established, or fortunate enough to be linked to some already established, you are F-ed in the A. i hate to say the following cuz i don't want to sound like a loud mouthed, egotistical, pompous ass, (anyone knowing me in real life will know of my humility on these matters) but how many services did i outperform over those 3 years, and which one of us is still in business?
you can't make money selling winning picks, you can make a fuckton of money selling dreams.
If you're truly capable of hitting 57% in the NFL with any volume, you should be a millionaire several times over before long, if not already.
excellent point. only 17 regular season weeks. and in the biggest, baddest Market in North America, how many lines do you think are off from, say week 5 out?
which is another good point on judging cappers, no capper could possibly have a +EV play on every SNF and MNF game. no way in hell you will ever convince me the Market makes mistakes on 30% or more of games per week.
i would have to go back and find the exact numbers, but i prob averaged 45 plays or so per season, that is reg and post season combined, less than 3 per week.
and i'm pretty sure syndicates have persons far more capable than myself, thus their position in the sports betting universe.
No average Joe is gonna want "just" 4 units or so of profit. In their brains that's not very good. Less than 3 plays a week is very small volume.
To be a successful service you must win over the sharp community, syndicates, pro gamblers, etc.
i've tried it. i am absolutely horrid at trying to cap any other sport. which is why i think you said 'beat' other markets. i can cap NFL, but nothing else to save my life.
and i am learning to beat other markets; and as you are well aware, successful bettors aren't in the business giving away their Edge for free.
lets assume you bet every game in 17 weeks which is about 272 games
You would need to win 155 plays and lose 137 and bet close to 35K per game to win your first Million.
If you play 3,500 a game would take you 10 years at 57%
The point is if you are sharp enough to find 57% wagers in a market as large as the NFL, you should be able to do it in all the smaller markets as well which should lead to thousands of wagers per year which yes will make you a multimillionaire in no time.
assuming u make 272 plays
but that is where a distinction needs to be made. i don't consider myself Sharp in the NFL. i feel like 55% over 350+ plays posted on BT is pretty darn solid, but by no means am i Sharp. i've been lucky enough that my unique approach has yet to be priced out of the Market.
there is a difference between capping games and 'finding' 57% winners in other Markets. but i am learning.
real life keeps getting in the way as well. dug out from the original medical bills from my wife getting sick. April 23rd, 2011. finally diagnosed with abnormal brain waves and anxiety. monthly medical bills now though $500 or so a month. but here is a line i am fond of and will use now, "95% of people don't care about your problems, the other 5% are glad it is you." that 5% is prob higher on BT for me!! but then you survive that, position yourself for small summer growth to be able to bet serious coin again in the Fall and SY shits the bed. just can't get out.
anyway Durito, if you want to front me $10K, i will pay you back 10 fold in a 20 years when i hit 1,000 NFL plays
But cool story anyway!
That's is so correct, it is very hard to find a good book that pays out and lines are slow to move... That is my biggest challenge!
So I am to assume you are questioning my BT record, my integrity and my ability as well?
Would you be so kind as to take $1.280 on the second Tuesday of each week for your picks?
I'm in, Babe!!!
Thanks