not to be-labor the point, but based on this information,below (and with the benefit of hindsight) how do you know how healthy these pitcher's really are ????
2nd game back from the DL
"The fact that he was hit hard in his last start against the Diamondbacks and had a rocky first inning Friday night suggests he had been attempting to pitch through the injury. If so, the Reds will have to be extra careful about how soon they bring him back this time."
not to be-labor the point, but based on this information,below (and with the benefit of hindsight) how do you know how healthy these pitcher's really are ????
You don't with certainty, and you don't originate in absolutes. You gather information and discount it the best you can. Obtaining asymmetric information (which would include injury information) allows one to get ahead of the market. But obtaining asymmetric information and predicting/discounting information (that would be asymmetric if true) from large deviations off of expected production (i.e. predicting someone is injured because they not to form) are two different things. The latter is a mugs game for most and incorrectly diagnosed as the former by many as well.
As far as the line move in the Reds game, it did not reflect a market in which a participant(s) had information on Cueto others did not. All the sell-offs from the +115 peak were the actual moves off and away from market baseline. A misaligned opener muddied the waters.
There is one that is close, but not quite there yet.
A bit surprised by the lack of aggressiveness that market has attacked the AL in the 3 IL games given where books priced the opening.
You don't with certainty, and you don't originate in absolutes. You gather information and discount it the best you can. Obtaining asymmetric information (which would include injury information) allows one to get ahead of the market. But obtaining asymmetric information and predicting/discounting information (that would be asymmetric if true) from large deviations off of expected production (i.e. predicting someone is injured because they not to form) are two different things. The latter is a mugs game for most and incorrectly diagnosed as the former by many as well.
As far as the line move in the Reds game, it did not reflect a market in which a participant(s) had information on Cueto others did not. All the sell-offs from the +115 peak were the actual moves off and away from market baseline. A misaligned opener muddied the waters.
Buffett: Just want to ask you about the Yankees pick tonight,
did you factor in at all that Pettitte hasn't lost a game at Minny or at home since 2008
None. There is nothing significant about Pettitte's past against tonight's Twins lineup. There are more sophisticated techniques one can use to project pitcher/hitter match ups than primarily looking at a small sampled past with those players.
I had to smile, BG when you mentioned " a mug's game" years ago it was indeed that......an old bookie long gone once told me that "they" would put paid "spotters" in the stands...to watch warmups, to see who had the hamstring pulls, the twinges, etc. that info in turn would be reported to the whomever put out the line "filtered" down to the locals....Rich Bomze had some contacts as well, his Bluesheet was fairly good for it's time ......lot more word of mouth back then
looks medieval today,.... in the computer age
Books making their most concerted effort to adjust for the recent performance of favorites by electing to open two thirds of the today's games priced above 120 outside the market baseline bandwidth (all skewed towards the favorite). Interesting, the market has thus far elected to go lockstep with books in more than half these games. Interested to see if this manifests into anything significant in the near future. Would welcome September market conditions in July.
Buffett: What you think about the Brewers taking sneaky money today so far? Seems like the worst team vs Left handers?
I think Worm is betting them
This does not look like sneaky money. There has been sneaky money backing Lohse all year, but this movement is intended to get noticed. Given current pricing points, line movement will likely follow similar pattern to that of G1 and G2.
Hey BG, first off thanks for taking the time to answer everyone's questions, it shows how classy you are. I was wondering if the no hitter last night factored at all in your Giants play tonight. Zito's road numbers are horrific, and the Giants have been terrible of late, not questioning the play, just curious what makes you like them.
Hey BG, first off thanks for taking the time to answer everyone's questions, it shows how classy you are. I was wondering if the no hitter last night factored at all in your Giants play tonight. Zito's road numbers are horrific, and the Giants have been terrible of late, not questioning the play, just curious what makes you like them.
The no-hitter didn't factor into my valuation. The Giants play, like all plays, is valuation based. The market has been acting shortsighted recently, which has resulted in exaggerated moves on trending teams and in-season stats that aren't as sustainable as what the market wants to discount. Sentiment on the Giants overly bearish right now, and Zito's road performances is making it hard for him to catch bids.
Buffett: Brewers are getting pounded now. You think this move is a little over done?
I have the line valued at -136, so despite the oscillation, I have my hands tied on this one for the most part. I still think the moves down are destined to get hit with resistance. It looks like the one that initiated your post just got hit back as well. Current Pinny of -141 still a few cents below market baseline. Lets see how this one closes.
Hey, BG, .......question for you sir, on first five's ...would it not be easier to originate these lines ???either on totals or sides ?? excluding the vig, it would take the bullpens out of the mix.. I am sure there are "advanced metrics out" there on bullpens,...but seems from a distance that (they ) bullpen usages, quality of middle relief, etc., etc, seems to be a crapshoot at times,.... just to "eliminate" that variable would seem to be an advantage ???
No ???
Hey buffet just wanted to thank you for a great season. These will be my last 4 plays since I won't be around for a few weeks. I'll be enjoying myself. But u made me a lot of money. Thanks again. I know ur stopping in a week or two so when I get back u will be done but ur the best pal. Enjoy ur holiday weekend. Good luck everyone and enjoy.
Comments
enjoy the weekend Guys
He suffered an injury during the game, there was no pre game info that suggested he was hurt/ill.
2nd game back from the DL
"The fact that he was hit hard in his last start against the Diamondbacks and had a rocky first inning Friday night suggests he had been attempting to pitch through the injury. If so, the Reds will have to be extra careful about how soon they bring him back this time."
You don't with certainty, and you don't originate in absolutes. You gather information and discount it the best you can. Obtaining asymmetric information (which would include injury information) allows one to get ahead of the market. But obtaining asymmetric information and predicting/discounting information (that would be asymmetric if true) from large deviations off of expected production (i.e. predicting someone is injured because they not to form) are two different things. The latter is a mugs game for most and incorrectly diagnosed as the former by many as well.
As far as the line move in the Reds game, it did not reflect a market in which a participant(s) had information on Cueto others did not. All the sell-offs from the +115 peak were the actual moves off and away from market baseline. A misaligned opener muddied the waters.
There is one that is close, but not quite there yet.
A bit surprised by the lack of aggressiveness that market has attacked the AL in the 3 IL games given where books priced the opening.
Everytime you post I feel dumber.
did you factor in at all that Pettitte hasn't lost a game at Minny or at home since 2008
None. There is nothing significant about Pettitte's past against tonight's Twins lineup. There are more sophisticated techniques one can use to project pitcher/hitter match ups than primarily looking at a small sampled past with those players.
looks medieval today,.... in the computer age
I think Worm is betting them
This does not look like sneaky money. There has been sneaky money backing Lohse all year, but this movement is intended to get noticed. Given current pricing points, line movement will likely follow similar pattern to that of G1 and G2.
The no-hitter didn't factor into my valuation. The Giants play, like all plays, is valuation based. The market has been acting shortsighted recently, which has resulted in exaggerated moves on trending teams and in-season stats that aren't as sustainable as what the market wants to discount. Sentiment on the Giants overly bearish right now, and Zito's road performances is making it hard for him to catch bids.
I have the line valued at -136, so despite the oscillation, I have my hands tied on this one for the most part. I still think the moves down are destined to get hit with resistance. It looks like the one that initiated your post just got hit back as well. Current Pinny of -141 still a few cents below market baseline. Lets see how this one closes.
Try refreshing with control-F5. They were down for maintenance this morning but should be working fine now.
Also, FWIW, you should not be betting baseball at a shop like BM that deals a 20-cent line.
No ???