Betting Talk

Friday s16 Kansas -2/um +2

JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
edited March 2013 in Sports Betting
Should be a a flat-out doozy. No side call here.
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Comments

  • hotbustophotbustop Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Michigan for me. I'll take Beilein over Self!
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    First off....I'm a huge Michigan fan so no matter what......GO BLUE!!!! That being said I am more than likely going to put my money on Kansas. I had heard some things this week about the shooting in domes and how the % drops some and then I was just reading what tribe wrote about the small sample size he found on these situations and how it may not effect the shooting as much as some would think. For arguments sake though, lets say it drops your % somewhat that might be enough to hurt Michigan significantly. They have lots of freshmen and sophomores in this game that have never played at a place like this, in a pressure situation like this, against a team like this. The nerves alone could rattle most teams. But when 3 of your top 4 shooters are freshmen or a sophomore (Burke,Stauskas, Robinson) and you throw in the dome factor that might be a bit to overcome. I also believe they will have to do a lot of their scoring from outside with the lack of a true interior presence and with Kansas obviously having Whitey who will keep Mitch McGary in check offensively. Jordan Morgan has hardly played in this tournament (for whatever reason- his ankle is fine now) and Jon Horford, I cant imagine, will be much of a factor. Even Hardaway hasnt had any experience this late in the tournament or in a place like the death star so who knows how he will respond.

    Jeff, any thoughts on this?
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Seems like Mich or pass to me
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    on a completely seperarte note and a completely idiotic way to bet, I wouldn't mind losing $$$ on Kansas if I bet against Michigan, just so I could see my Wolverines play for a shot at the Fianl 4 against Florida. I have a line of -1.5 for Kansas, so my worst case scenario would be Michigan loses by 1 and they dont advance and I lose $$$. Chances of a 1 point game are slim though.

    Not saying thats my reasoning, just that it would be an easier pill to swallow if I lost the bet but Michigan advanced.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    No opinion on this one at all.
  • blueblue Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    I like the way Michigan is playing right now. 3 big weapons with McGary coming on as a 4th.
  • BarneyMillerBarneyMiller Member
    edited March 2013
    KU's Withey is good at drawing fouls. If McGary gets in foul trouble, KU should win. KU can turn the ball over but UM is poor at creating TO's. On 2-point shots defensively, KU is #1 at 38.7%. Michigan allows 47.2% shooting on 2-pointers. While being #2 in D-1 in offensive efficiency, UM's assist to field goals made ratio is not very good which could hurt them against a very good defensive team such as Kansas. Michigan's percentage of points from free throws is actually dead last in the country. But, they don't foul very much which should reduce KU's good FTA/FG ratio.

    It's hard to go against Trey Burke, but my money is on Kansas tonight.
  • Wurzz03Wurzz03 Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    This game is very difficult to cap. Going into the tourney I was hoping that Kansas and Michigan were in different regions because I had them both slated for final four, unfortunately Michigan faultered in the reg season to end up with their 4 seed. It seems a lot of people are on Michigan and I agree they are the hotter team right now, however I still think McLemore is a talent that has yet to show up this tourney. Will he rise and show he has the NBA talent and shot? Or does he continue to lay in the shadows and the young NBA talent of Michigan takes over?

    Im laying off, but will most likely have a small play on the over as I see enough scoring talent on both teams mixed with close game FTs at the end. GL all!
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited March 2013
    Notsomuch a fan of his delivery, but organic has seemed to be in tune with Michigan down the homestretch....thoughts, organic?
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Notsomuch a fan of his delivery, but organic has seemed to be in tune with Michigan down the homestretch....thoughts, organic?

    Let's Gooooooooooo!! Sorry couldn't resist ;-)
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    I'm on Michigan, I took the 2.5 as soon as the line came out. I like the coaching matchup (I'll take Belein over Self all day), and I like the fact that UM doesn't turn the ball over (a big factor in these games imo). Personally, I just feel like Mich is the better team, and if it comes down to the end, my money is on Trey Burke.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2013
    Burke scares the shit out of me, not in a good way. When he runs the offense, Michigan is hard to beat. The last month, he hasn't run the offense, forced a bunch of bad shots and has played terrible defense both on the ball and help(he hasn't really helped, just stops halfway). When he takes 20 shots, half are terrible and everyone else just stands around. Late in the Indiana game(2nd game), he went 3 minutes without passing the ball to anyone. The entire time Hardaway was being guarded by Hulls. An average PG would have been feeding Hardaway all day long. Indiana got back in to and took the lead briefly during that time. It happened in both Indiana games, both Wisconsin games, the OSU game in Columbus, and to a lesser extent Illinois and S Dak St. All games where he thinks he has something to prove. They don't turn out too well for Michigan. Michigan hasn't had a moment of doubt yet in the tourney, a moment where you think it has a chance to get away from them. When they do, that's usually when Burke gets tunnel vision. Doing that against KU's defense is death.
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Wurzz03 wrote: »
    It seems a lot of people are on Michigan and I agree they are the hotter team right now

    I definitely wouldn't say michigan is the hotter team right now (unfortunately). Theyre 8-6 in their last 14 and didn't get past the second round of the big ten tournament ,while Kansas is 12-1 last 13 and won the big 12 tournament. Harder competition for Michigan for sure but can't say they're hotter.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited March 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Let's Gooooooooooo!! Sorry couldn't resist ;-)



    Nicely done. I loled
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Burke is a very solid point guard no doubt but Stevie is right. He can become a bit of a ball hawk and gets a bit lazy with his defense. There are times when he takes way too many shots and tries to force the game instead of letting it come to him naturally. He had a bad stretch against vcu there in the second half where he turned the ball over like 3 times in 4 possessions or something and had a bad foul too. He is the best when he distributes to his teammates and then when he gets his open shots hes more capable to knock them down. One thing he can do is create off the dribble for some incredible finishes around the rim and I just wonder if he will be able to get those kind or acrabatic shots to drop with Withey down there. Maybe he can get him in foul trouble with his drives to the basket.
  • organic313organic313 Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    I also pass on this match up. I truly believe that this game will go down to the last possession. Tough board today!
  • lakers22lakers22 Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    KU has started poorly in 1st 2 games of the tourny, im sure that was a major emphasis this week and i beleive there will be a much greater sense of urgency to start the gm. Im on KU 1st half -1
  • the executerthe executer Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    nice pick lakers
    I put the exact same play on my thread earlier. I listed my reasons why on there but Kansas -1 first half it is

    g/l to us
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Late money on the Wolverines. Down to 1.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2013
    Like I said, when things start looking like they could get away, Burke starts firing. Try keeping your shots inside 30 feet. 3 shots with no passes, all misses.
  • brickhandsbrickhands Member
    edited March 2013
    StevieY wrote: »
    Like I said, when things start looking like they could get away, Burke starts firing. Try keeping your shots inside 30 feet.

    I'm surprised Jim lets him keep playing one on one basketball. It's been to their detriment the last half of the season. When he passes the ball and gets the ball inside they have success.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2013
    brickhands wrote: »
    I'm surprised Jim lets him keep playing one on one basketball. It's been to their detriment the last half of the season. When he passes the ball and gets the ball inside they have success.

    He took him out early in the Indiana game when he was doing it, they were down 10-3. UM went on a run to take a 6 or 8 pt lead with him on the bench. The rest of the team was driving to the basket, it looked like early in the year. He comes back in and he is playing that way as well. As the 2nd half went along, he went back to this style with the same result.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited March 2013
    brickhands wrote: »
    I'm surprised Jim lets him keep playing one on one basketball. It's been to their detriment the last half of the season. When he passes the ball and gets the ball inside they have success.


    Who's Jim
  • brickhandsbrickhands Member
    edited March 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Who's Jim

    typo...but I think you already knew that bob
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited March 2013
    Decent game
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Decent game

    It was ok :)
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Burke = onions!!!!!
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    brickhands wrote: »
    typo...but I think you already knew that bob

    You meant to type John and you mistyped and Jim came out?
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Burke = Onions!!!!!!!!!!
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Sometimes hero ball works I guess. Wow. What a fucking game.
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