Betting Talk

Baseball Cappers: worth a read.

Obi OneObi One Senior Member
edited May 2013 in Sports Betting
I found this on twitter and I thought it is worth sharing. Most of you probably follow him already. While I do believe it's a bit on the edge to be linking to another forum, the value of what he's written exceeds that IMO. If it's deemed against the posting rules, please remove.

http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?87760-Betting-Baseball
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Comments

  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Holy shit Obi, I saw the same thing and was going to post the link, but I didn't know if that's something allowed, so I didn't bother, but you're right it's very good reading.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    It's a good read. There's a lot of common sense there and group A and Group B if you don't why that is you need to better understand baseball. The most interesting thing that I found was the discrepancy between the best and the worst team how close baseball is to the other sports. Never really thought of that. If you new to baseball or if your want to learn something new because we all can there's something in there for everyone.

    Thanks for sharing Obi I'm sure Goats will let it stay. So looking forward to baseball discussion's and good clean bar room my guy is better then your guy stuff.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    It's a good read. There's a lot of common sense there and group A and Group B if you don't why that is you need to better understand baseball. The most interesting thing that I found was the discrepancy between the best and the worst team how close baseball is to the other sports. Never really thought of that. If you new to baseball or if your want to learn something new because we all can there's something in there for everyone.

    Thanks for sharing Obi I'm sure Goats will let it stay. So looking forward to baseball discussion's and good clean bar room my guy is better then your guy stuff.

    He left out the NHL, which is the only sport comparable to MLB. Last year in the NHL it was .622 high, .354 low.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Caveat emptor with this guy people. He's claiming to have won 5+ years but when I was following his thread at Covers a couple or three years ago he was horrible. He's also claiming heavy reliance on sabermetrics but way more often than not he was opposite every decent sabermetric handicapper I know. Maybe he's changed his approach but if that sample writeup is any indication he's way too reliant on info built into the line.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    kdog wrote: »
    Caveat emptor with this guy people.

    I think that is something any bettor should be aware of.....with any bettor or service you're tailing.............and you just can't stress this enough:
    Past results DO NOT guarantee future results.

    I have only followed him this preseason on twitter and he's been solid. Many times he's had great closing value (giving out plays at -120....line would move to -150 within the hour. Of course, it doesn't take much money to move lines in preseason, but alas, he's been giving out good numbers) He admits himself that preseason is much easier for him than regular season.

    Finally I would like to add that I'd rather tail a capper that can write a solid piece like this, than a nitwit proclaiming to hit 70% with some obscure secret voodoo trends he found.

    Thanks Kdog!
  • thedegenthedegen Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    i have known Gamehunter for a long time. the guy knows his MLB.
  • BomberBomber Member
    edited March 2013
    stevie do you have a baseball package this year?
  • BomberBomber Member
    edited March 2013
    do you have gamehunters last years results?
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2013
    Bomber wrote: »
    stevie do you have a baseball package this year?

    Posting baseball here until mid-july or my back/neck gives out, whichever comes first :)
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Obi One wrote: »
    I think that is something any bettor should be aware of.....with any bettor or service you're tailing.............and you just can't stress this enough:
    Past results DO NOT guarantee future results.

    I have only followed him this preseason on twitter and he's been solid. Many times he's had great closing value (giving out plays at -120....line would move to -150 within the hour. Of course, it doesn't take much money to move lines in preseason, but alas, he's been giving out good numbers) He admits himself that preseason is much easier for him than regular season.

    Finally I would like to add that I'd rather tail a capper that can write a solid piece like this, than a nitwit proclaiming to hit 70% with some obscure secret voodoo trends he found.

    Thanks Kdog!

    I can back the bolded part up....
  • thedegenthedegen Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Bomber wrote: »
    do you have gamehunters last years results?



    he isn't a tout.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    thedegen wrote: »
    he isn't a tout.

    What does that have to do with last year's results?
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    decent podcast this week:

    http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=9112118
  • DogsoutDogsout Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Anyone notice a familiar name in the responses posted at this other site to this guys thread?
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Dogsout wrote: »
    Anyone notice a familiar name in the responses posted at this other site to this guys thread?

    Haha, that's funny. I wonder how the service is going these days...
  • thedegenthedegen Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Hahahaha. Suck it Jeff. Good luck finding that info but I can email him and ask if u want
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    thedegen wrote: »
    Hahahaha. Suck it Jeff. Good luck finding that info but I can email him and ask if u want

    "Suck it" because I asked why someone who isn't a tout wouldn't keep a record?

    I don't give a shit what his record is. I completely agree with kdog. Guy is a poser and pretty square if you ask me. But responding to "what was his record last year" by implying that only touts keep records is ridiculous.
  • BomberBomber Member
    edited March 2013
    thanks stevie love them dogs
  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    kdog wrote: »
    ... if that sample writeup is any indication he's way too reliant on info built into the line.

    Agree kdog. Also, if you didn't already know what he was preaching about value, you probably shouldn't be betting baseball.
  • Phil147Phil147 Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Dogsout wrote: »
    Anyone notice a familiar name in the responses posted at this other site to this guys thread?

    The moment I read your comment, that posters name was the name I had in my head.
  • thedegenthedegen Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    tribecalledjeff wrote: »
    "Suck it" because I asked why someone who isn't a tout wouldn't keep a record?

    I don't give a shit what his record is. I completely agree with kdog. Guy is a poser and pretty square if you ask me. But responding to "what was his record last year" by implying that only touts keep records is ridiculous.



    fair enough Jeff. bol.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    tribecalledjeff wrote: »
    Guy is a poser and pretty square if you ask me.

    Hey Jeff,

    He gives out his plays for free, he acknowledges that he's had good runs and bad runs (one season when he was up +130 units at the break and almost gave everything back in the 2nd half). He claims to have had +units on almost every single season of posting in forums or on twitter, except for 1 season.

    Why would you call him a poser?

    Second question is: If you believe he's square, who in the industry (twitter, forums, toutservice) would you call a sharp on MLB? ....or a medium-sharp?
    bumpo wrote: »
    Agree kdog. Also, if you didn't already know what he was preaching about value, you probably shouldn't be betting baseball.

    While I totally agree with your statement, I hope you can understand that not everybody has been betting for years and years....some are still learning (including me). That's why I posted his link.
  • eug44eug44 Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    very interesting read! can someone post his twitter handle...thanks
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    He uses convenient sample sizes as well.

    He uses the 2 worst teams in a 32 team NFL, while using the SINGLE WORST TEAM in a NCAABB field that has hundreds and hundreds of teams.

    Also left out is the caliber of opponents between the PROFESSIONAL NFL and NCAABB

    I noticed someone else mentioned that hockey( 1 of the 4 major sports), was just ignored, because it didnt help his claim.
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    I think reading Chumlys explanations of why a team was a 10,000,000 star lock was more interesting....and believable.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    BigPerm wrote: »
    He uses convenient sample sizes as well.

    He uses the 2 worst teams in a 32 team NFL, while using the SINGLE WORST TEAM in a NCAABB field that has hundreds and hundreds of teams.


    Well, If I read it right, that's exactly his point: Even the worse teams in baseball still wins 34 to 40% of their games. At a 40%-win-percentage and an average of +120 lines for those worst teams (just some quick numbers I grabbed) your still around break even, I believe. (without doing the math, sorry)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    eug44 wrote: »
    very interesting read! can someone post his twitter handle...thanks

    Just paste his name into the the twitter search box....should do it. As Kdog already said: Caveat emptor
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    No offense Obi since I like almost everything you post put this is shit that anyone who knows even a little about baseball and betting understands.

    It is pretty damn clear that betting overpriced favorites and overpriced pitchers based on last years results is going to get u killed. Problem is this is all after the fact analysis and adds nothing until we already know the results.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    No offence take Kass,

    This same thesis was more or less posted a couple of years ago on one of the big generic betting sites. That story was about a MLB bettor who just took a look at the daily betting sheet in the morning, dropped his unit size on all the dogs priced at +110 or more and went golfing for the rest of the day. For a couple of years he hit 50% on those dogs, while 44% was needed for break even. Word got out, books caught up, now you can't do that anymore.

    I still like the info Mr. GameHunter gives out, as I said before in agreeing with Bumpo: While you shouldn't be betting baseball if you didn't know this already, not everybody knows this. If me posting this has helped a couple of bettors of laying off of those -250 faves (many squares do this), and help them see more value in the dogs (as they become a bit sharper) then I'm happy. That's why we're here on BT.

    Playing a little bit of the devil's advocate here......the more info we can get, the more we all can profit. So feel free to add any insights you have.... (within the limits of when that knowledge goes public, that it wouldn't hurt your edge)
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited March 2013
    Obi One wrote: »
    No offence take Kass,

    This same thesis was more or less posted a couple of years ago on one of the big generic betting sites. That story was about a MLB bettor who just took a look at the daily betting sheet in the morning, dropped his unit size on all the dogs priced at +110 or more and went golfing for the rest of the day. For a couple of years he hit 50% on those dogs, while 44% was needed for break even. Word got out, books caught up, now you can't do that anymore.

    I still like the info Mr. GameHunter gives out, as I said before in agreeing with Bumpo: While you shouldn't be betting baseball if you didn't know this already, not everybody knows this. If me posting this has helped a couple of bettors of laying off of those -250 faves (many squares do this), and help them see more value in the dogs (as they become a bit sharper) then I'm happy. That's why we're here on BT.

    Playing a little bit of the devil's advocate here......the more info we can get, the more we all can profit. So feel free to add any insights you have.... (within the limits of when that knowledge goes public, that it wouldn't hurt your edge)

    I agree I guess I just felt you could have probably explained it just as well or better.

    For myself I try to find teams and pitchers I fell are undervalued coming into the season. I have found most of my success early in the season and tend to lose whatever edge I think I found as we get further along in the year. Mostly because the books adjust and I dont.
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