Betting Talk

Why not Field +500 over Joe Johnny Football

homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
edited January 2013 in Sports Betting
to win the Hesiman?

really my only two reasons are ~84% probability according to no vig line and

how many stubborn, old school guys vote? first freshman ever, really? But we have had defensive winners in the past.

thoughts?

Comments

  • LawboyLawboy Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    Johnny Football has a very low chance of winning as a freshman. There is no clear front-runner, but I think field at +500 is pretty good vs manziel.
  • MachineGunMachineGun Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    Lawboy wrote: »
    Johnny Football has a very low chance of winning as a freshman. There is no clear front-runner, but I think field at +500 is pretty good vs manziel.

    Ive seen this come down to +380 at my offshore
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    Hope you bet the +500

    and follow http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com
  • TwoninerTwoniner Member
    edited November 2012
    Lawboy wrote: »
    Johnny Football has a very low chance of winning as a freshman. There is no clear front-runner, but I think field at +500 is pretty good vs manziel.

    Very low chance of winning?
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    He's the best player I've seen this year. That said I think there may very well be enough anti freshman bias in the voters to make the +350 or so it is down to still have some value.
  • billymacbillymac Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    he is -500 at most places. that is not low.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    1050/550 now at 5D.

    How many times does the best player actually win, as opposed to the best player on the best team. Guys have been cheated before, no?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited November 2012
    homerplayer wrote: »
    1050/550 now at 5D.

    How many times does the best player actually win, as opposed to the best player on the best team. Guys have been cheated before, no?

    I think there is a very good chance that he wins it, but I don't see how anyone is laying -1050 with everything that we know right now.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    2003 Jason White (where is he now?) over Larry Fitz, only one of the best WRs to ever play the game...

    2004 AP loses despite putting up 1,800 yards (Bush wins next year with less impressive stats), but Lienart wins national championship and heisman with pedestrian stats, less than 3K yards and 26 TDs

    2005 Troy Smith (career back-up) over McFadden

    I could make a case for Gerhart losing to Ingram, but at least that was razor thin.

    At least he has the history of being a QB on his side.
  • noelnoel Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    The media seems to be hyping Johnny football pretty BIG. gl
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    I feel like we just had this thread.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    TommyL wrote: »
    I think there is a very good chance that he wins it, but I don't see how anyone is laying -1050 with everything that we know right now.

    750/450 now at 5D

    -570 at Heritage
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    College Station writers already have declared him a winner

    Zwerneman has been a Heisman voter since 1995. The San Antonio Express News and Houston Chronicle writer doesn't think the fact Manziel is a freshman should hurt his chances at taking the trophy.

    "His numbers are so overwhelming and so much better than anyone else's that I think even the old school guys are now seeing that they can't ignore this freshman from Kerrville, Texas," said Zwerneman.

    Full article here
  • dtrain11dtrain11 Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    Be careful when reading the word of the Aggies, they tend to be on the delusional side. That being said, I think he should win, but won't
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    unload on Johnny Football

    Skippy Bayless article

    You can't convince me Johnny Manziel deserves the Heisman over Manti Te'o any more than I'll probably be able to convince you that, right now, Johnny Football's team could beat Notre Dame, Alabama or Georgia.

    But both statements are all too true and precisely what's wrong with college football. Heismans shouldn't be won by a quarterback with an all-time great nickname whose beyond-Cam Newton pass/run stats camouflage two bad second halves in Texas A&M's two biggest home games, both losses.

    A&M led Florida 17-7 midway through the second quarter -- and didn't score another point. From that point on, Manziel threw for only 80 more yards and ran for only 20 more. Florida pretty much shut him down. Florida won, 20-17.

    Then A&M led LSU 12-0 late in the first half. From that point on, Manziel threw three interceptions while rushing for only four yards and scoring no touchdowns. LSU made Johnny Football look more like Johnny Rotten. LSU won, 24-19.

    Sorry, not Heisman good enough.
  • BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    I've been betting the Heisman the past six years and always clean up by following stiffarmtrophy.com. They do a pretty good job accumulating actual votes by tegion and making an informed guess. Although been some closer calls in recent years Ingram comes to mind but I've won every year. Sometime think I should only bet that stupid award. I guess it's to each their own wait and you lose the value..
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    Big - I followed the link Lumpy posted last week, but they still have yet to update their site. joined the e-mail list just to get an idea if they are doing it this year. 9 days out, not much time left. hard to argue with 6-0.
  • BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
    edited November 2012
    Yea they're lagging this year for sure.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Parlay
    Win 12/8/12 8:00pm Props Football 18801 Johnny Manziel wins Heisman Trophy -1750* vs Field wins Heisman Trophy
    Win 12/9/12 1:00pm Props Football 25401 Baltimore Ravens win AFC North -300* vs Field wins AFC North
    Win 12/9/12 1:00pm Props Football 25801 Green Bay Packers win NFC North -200* vs Field wins NFC North
    Win 12/9/12 1:00pm Props Football 26001 San Francisco 49ers win NFC West -450* vs Field wins NFC West

    Boom. Now lets go in this 2nd H here johnny boy
  • mikestitemikestite Member
    edited January 2013
    payout??
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited January 2013
    mikestite wrote: »
    payout??

    about 1.5 by my calculation.
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