Why should you bet them just as you did in Week 1. Shouldn't you reduce your bet....Sound money management.
If you bet a changing % weekly or monthly according to your B/R then by all means your bets will be smaller. I'm not of that mind set. I bet a certain % consistently through the good and the bad. I make sure my % will withstand long losing streak. Some years my % may increase but that will be my bet for that particular season or year depending again on my B/R.
The way I look at it is if your betting say lets use amounts say you bet $500 a game and your record is 10-20 but over many years and many plays you have shown your a 55% winner over those years. Now you go on this losing streak and change your bet to $200 and by end of year you attain your usual 55% you can actually be a loser for the year. It's like guessing when your going to get hot and break out. there's many ways to play your B/R do what's comfortable for you. The first 10W 20 L = <6k> the next 30 games you win 20 and lose 10 betting $200 = +1800 so now you 30-30 losing 4.2k using a simple -110
I can't play like that. I bet a certain % where I could lose 50 str8 games and still be in action.
Let's do this little exercise. Pretend that the entity known as RAS doesn't even exist. You are saying that sharp forces in the market will correct line errors regardless of who makes plays on certain teams, etc. Do you really expect us to believe that your three totals all move four points this past Saturday? Please be honest with me here.
Would they all have moved 4 points? Probably not. Would they have all closed at the release line if we hadn't released them? No. The more important point is that no one saw value in playing opposite even getting an extra 4 points. Opinions & money are exactly what shapes the market. The market (RAS & followers included in this case) determined what the most accurate line possible was, and that is where the numbers closed.
Are you trying to make a case that RAS involvement in the market makes closing lines on RAS releases less accurate than other games? I would argue that the opposite is true.
Good question. The bigger the sample got with bad CLV the more concerned I would be. Maybe another 50-100 plays before affecting my original confidence level.
Back to this. I think we can all agree that variance has played into Scott's bad start (to what degree is debatable), but looking ahead to the next 50-100 plays, what CLV should we hope to see so we can feel confident he's still got it?
Basically, what's good CLV for the NFL? I see alot about college CLV but not so much on CLV as it relates to the NFL.
Would they all have moved 4 points? Probably not. Would they have all closed at the release line if we hadn't released them? No. The more important point is that no one saw value in playing opposite even getting an extra 4 points. Opinions & money are exactly what shapes the market. The market (RAS & followers included in this case) determined what the most accurate line possible was, and that is where the numbers closed.
Are you trying to make a case that RAS involvement in the market makes closing lines on RAS releases less accurate than other games? I would argue that the opposite is true.
Nope I'm trying to make the case that you (your personal bets, your followers, your "brand") generate your own CLV. Again there's nothing wrong with that, I just wish that you'd admit that joe basement with such a handicapping "gift" would not get such line moves. You've long maintained that a capper can't be considered "good"/respected/trusted/etc unless he gets massive CLV. I agree that he has to beat the market consistently, but to expect anybody else in the world to approach your CLV is ridiculous (except for zomg bw of course).
Again, I guess we are seeing the process play out in front of our very eyes. You thought enough of SY and ss to support and recommend them, yet there they sit with -CLV. Realize it's a marathon not a sprint but it is what it is.
Nope I'm trying to make the case that you (your personal bets, your followers, your "brand") generate your own CLV. Again there's nothing wrong with that, I just wish that you'd admit that joe basement with such a handicapping "gift" would not get such line moves. You've long maintained that a capper can't be considered "good"/respected/trusted/etc unless he gets massive CLV. I agree that he has to beat the market consistently, but to expect anybody else in the world to approach your CLV is ridiculous (except for zomg bw of course).
Again, I guess we are seeing the process play out in front of our very eyes. You thought enough of SY and ss to support and recommend them, yet there they sit with -CLV. Realize it's a marathon not a sprint but it is what it is.
I've never said CLV had to be "massive" for a capper to be good/respected/trusted, etc. I simply said the +.11 and +.2 in your signature wasn't enough to suggest to me that you'd likely be a long term winner. I'll stand by that.
CLV is just another idicator/predictor that I believe is a valuable tool and far too underutilized. It wouldn't even shock me if there were long term winners out there who got zero or negative CLV, but it would be much more of execption than the norm.
As for RAS, unless you are seeing some sort of market inefficiency in the closing lines of RAS releases (which you just said you don't), I STILL don't get your point? Obviously opinions weigh heavily in the market (as they should), but even a sharp Joe Blow in the basement that no one knows about could blow our CLV away if he played earlier in the market than when we release.
And just a word in the NFL, like so many have noticed (helmut) that many of the games at the end are Circling around the line.
Why? They are games of public interest bet on the most and viewed by many on TV. The less bet or viewed games usually don't circle around the number with 2-5 minutes left
IMO some bad people want a piece of the NFL pie and they will do anything to get it.
I guess it all depends who the public is and what names they use when betting.
It's complicated to determine who's really doing it.
It's almost like when the Bank of Japan intervenes on currency trades and 5 minutes later they say, Who me?? No we didn't do that.
i read sixth sense write up in vegas before the last superbowl, where nyg beat ne. his analyis was impressive, with detail stats, and good inaight into the match up, of course it helps that the game unfoled almost exactly as he analyzed..
in other word, sixth sense is GOOD!
he posted some analysis here last year also on the NFL, they were outstanding. have faith.
I guess it all depends who the public is and what names they use when betting.
It's complicated to determine who's really doing it.
It's almost like when the Bank of Japan intervenes on currency trades and 5 minutes later they say, Who me?? No we didn't do that.
Hoff21 pub·lic (pblk)
1. The community or the people as a whole.
2. A group of people sharing a common interest: the reading public or gambling public.
Please note: bankers are not included. Hi Jamie Diamond
Scott without question is one of the best public NFL Handicappers out there. He has hit a bump in the road but he will get over it. I would strongly suggest not bailing out right now if you have already been playing his stuff. In fact, for those that haven't been playing his stuff, now is precisely the right time to jump on board. His recent negative variance will work itself out in the near term. I wouldn't be suprised if he is back to even or ahead by season end.
I wouldn't be suprised if he is back to even or ahead by season end.
60% the rest of the way, on 6 picks/week, still won't get him back to even. I do expect him to be plus on the rest of the season, but all the way back to breakeven is unlikely.
TRAITS of a WINNER: It takes more than knowing stats, algorithms, and injuries..
"The difference between being a successful sports investor and a long term loser is razor thin. Profitability comes down to a handful of wagers each year that make the difference on the annual balance sheet. However, what if that margin of error was based on intangibles rather than numbers themselves? As we examine the traits of a winner, we come to realize it takes more than knowing the weather, injuries, algorithms, or getting the best of the number to be a successful sports bettor. There are certain personality traits long term profitable bettors share and by making a few tweaks to your own approach, you can become part of that elite fraternity.
You hear all the time the most successful bettors are emotionless. Long term successful handicappers don’t allow themselves to rise and fall with every touchdown or interception because the season is filled with huge momentum swings. More importantly, they don’t allow a single loss or a short-term losing streak to effect their next wager, a concept the betting public never understands. Bailing out or getting too emotional over a losing wager ends up creating a disastrous situation long term. In some cases, this is a learned trait; meaning an approach devoid of emotion can be cultivated. A prime real world example is you’re more apt to get into a bar fight at 22 then at 42 since maturation eliminates a lot of our propensity to make poor choices (although we’ve seen plenty of grown men try to exert old man strength, usually in SEC colors).
Professional sports investors are realists. A realist is defined by Merriam-Webster as concerned with fact and rejects the impractical and visionary. This applies to sports wagering in two ways: (i) having realistic expectations and (ii) applying proper factors to handicapping methods. There’s a large expectation gap between what the public believes is the normal winning percentage versus what professionals strive to achieve. Veteran bettors understand that 55% is profitable over the course of a full season especially when big bets are structured correctly.
A mistake we see all too often from novice bettors is applying the wrong factors into their handicapping equation; specifically weighting injuries. Unless it’s Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, players don’t matter (of course there are a few but you get the idea)! That may sound like a blanket statement but at the highest levels it’s not the marquee names that need to be properly accounted for each game. This alone is why you don’t see lines make wild fluctuations when an injury is announced to anyone but the truly elite talents. The public attempts to apply Fantasy Football logic to handicapping and believe me, there is minimal correlation if any between the two. While the public is yapping about skill position guys, the pros are analyzing offensive and defensive lines, nickelbacks, depth charts, and the tone in the locker room.
Discipline and patience are key traits found in seasoned bettors. Profitable sports investors are careful with their money and deliberate with where they choose to invest. Quite frankly, they have to be because this is their sole means of income and sports wagering doesn’t reward the rash or spontaneous. Joel Anderson’s book titled, “Trading, Sex & Dying”, defines the Adventurer as always looking for action, when at times it might be wise to wait. There isn’t a right or wrong number of games to bet, you move whenever you see value. Like a surgeon, sharps move with precision and calculated movements since it’s not about the action but rather thoughtful examination and careful consideration of where their money is best served.
Successful pros are the type that hang in the background and draw little to no attention to themselves (I hope you’re reading this Floyd Mayweather). It is that introverted, no ego nature, that allows a pro to properly analyze and then get a wager down without sending vibrations through the marketplace. This is a similar approach that successful investment managers take when attempting to place large orders around the Street; thus allowing them to get the price they want. In our case as a sports investor, it allows you to get the line you want when you want it. Sports, by nature, are highly competitive and the same can be said for successful sports investors. These individuals are highly competitive, workaholics that understand success comes with a price.
Profitability doesn’t come overnight and it takes long hours to hone successful methods. For the elite, the drive to be “right” pushes them to fine tune their skills and approach. Successful sports investors are not escape gamblers meaning they aren’t gambling to escape reality, this is their reality. They approach the task with a firm understanding of risk and how to mitigate it. The traits discussed can be applied to doctors and investment managers as well (on a different scale) yet the overlaps are plentiful. Although the nature of those vocations may be different, the mindset and mental wiring of individuals isn’t all that diverse. They clear out all of the noise and make sound decisions based on methods they’ve practiced and refined over time. Not everyone is going to be a successful sports investor, but if you mimic some of the traits the pros display, the likelihood of success will be greater. Good luck and keep cashing!"
I have played each and every one of Scott's plays for the past 3 years. I know this flies 100% in the face of conservative theory but I plan to up my wager by 25% starting this weekend. There is no way in the world that SS doesn't end the season near or above 50%.
I have played each and every one of Scott's plays for the past 3 years. I know this flies 100% in the face of conservative theory but I plan to up my wager by 25% starting this weekend. There is no way in the world that SS doesn't end the season near or above 50%.
With all due respect, that's terrible logic. There is no reason to believe that his plays suddenly have more +EV due to his recent cold streak.
I have played each and every one of Scott's plays for the past 3 years. I know this flies 100% in the face of conservative theory but I plan to up my wager by 25% starting this weekend. There is no way in the world that SS doesn't end the season near or above 50%.
It doesn't have anything to do with being conservative, it defies basic math and is indeed a terrible idea as Tommy pointed out.
Streaks are unpredictable; they don't know when one is happening nor when a season begins or ends. A couple other mathematical concepts worth mentioning...
1. You should technically be betting less if your BR has decreased, so you're already betting a higher % of your BR if you haven't decreased your bet size.
2. You're essentially misapplying the concept of "regression to the mean" as many gamblers do. If you expect Scott to hit say 55% going forward (his mean), he will get there by hitting 55% over the next 1000 plays, not by suddenly hitting well above that for the rest of the season just b/c he has started off so far below his historical win rate.
You're not being aggressive, you're hoping to get lucky.
It doesn't have anything to do with being conservative, it defies basic math and is indeed a terrible idea as Tommy pointed out.
Streaks are unpredictable; they don't know when one is happening nor when a season begins or ends. A couple other mathematical concepts worth mentioning...
1. You should technically be betting less if your BR has decreased, so you're already betting a higher % of your BR if you haven't decreased your bet size.
2. You're essentially misapplying the concept of "regression to the mean" as many gamblers do. If you expect Scott to hit say 55% going forward (his mean), he will get there by hitting 55% over the next 1000 plays, not by suddenly hitting well above that for the rest of the season just b/c he has started off so far below his historical win rate.
You're not being aggressive, you're hoping to get lucky.
TRAITS of a WINNER: It takes more than knowing stats, algorithms, and injuries..
"The difference between being a successful sports investor and a long term loser is razor thin. Profitability comes down to a handful of wagers each year that make the difference on the annual balance sheet. However, what if that margin of error was based on intangibles rather than numbers themselves? As we examine the traits of a winner, we come to realize it takes more than knowing the weather, injuries, algorithms, or getting the best of the number to be a successful sports bettor. There are certain personality traits long term profitable bettors share and by making a few tweaks to your own approach, you can become part of that elite fraternity.
You hear all the time the most successful bettors are emotionless. Long term successful handicappers don’t allow themselves to rise and fall with every touchdown or interception because the season is filled with huge momentum swings. More importantly, they don’t allow a single loss or a short-term losing streak to effect their next wager, a concept the betting public never understands. Bailing out or getting too emotional over a losing wager ends up creating a disastrous situation long term. In some cases, this is a learned trait; meaning an approach devoid of emotion can be cultivated. A prime real world example is you’re more apt to get into a bar fight at 22 then at 42 since maturation eliminates a lot of our propensity to make poor choices (although we’ve seen plenty of grown men try to exert old man strength, usually in SEC colors).
Professional sports investors are realists. A realist is defined by Merriam-Webster as concerned with fact and rejects the impractical and visionary. This applies to sports wagering in two ways: (i) having realistic expectations and (ii) applying proper factors to handicapping methods. There’s a large expectation gap between what the public believes is the normal winning percentage versus what professionals strive to achieve. Veteran bettors understand that 55% is profitable over the course of a full season especially when big bets are structured correctly.
A mistake we see all too often from novice bettors is applying the wrong factors into their handicapping equation; specifically weighting injuries. Unless it’s Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, players don’t matter (of course there are a few but you get the idea)! That may sound like a blanket statement but at the highest levels it’s not the marquee names that need to be properly accounted for each game. This alone is why you don’t see lines make wild fluctuations when an injury is announced to anyone but the truly elite talents. The public attempts to apply Fantasy Football logic to handicapping and believe me, there is minimal correlation if any between the two. While the public is yapping about skill position guys, the pros are analyzing offensive and defensive lines, nickelbacks, depth charts, and the tone in the locker room.
Discipline and patience are key traits found in seasoned bettors. Profitable sports investors are careful with their money and deliberate with where they choose to invest. Quite frankly, they have to be because this is their sole means of income and sports wagering doesn’t reward the rash or spontaneous. Joel Anderson’s book titled, “Trading, Sex & Dying”, defines the Adventurer as always looking for action, when at times it might be wise to wait. There isn’t a right or wrong number of games to bet, you move whenever you see value. Like a surgeon, sharps move with precision and calculated movements since it’s not about the action but rather thoughtful examination and careful consideration of where their money is best served.
Successful pros are the type that hang in the background and draw little to no attention to themselves (I hope you’re reading this Floyd Mayweather). It is that introverted, no ego nature, that allows a pro to properly analyze and then get a wager down without sending vibrations through the marketplace. This is a similar approach that successful investment managers take when attempting to place large orders around the Street; thus allowing them to get the price they want. In our case as a sports investor, it allows you to get the line you want when you want it. Sports, by nature, are highly competitive and the same can be said for successful sports investors. These individuals are highly competitive, workaholics that understand success comes with a price.
Profitability doesn’t come overnight and it takes long hours to hone successful methods. For the elite, the drive to be “right” pushes them to fine tune their skills and approach. Successful sports investors are not escape gamblers meaning they aren’t gambling to escape reality, this is their reality. They approach the task with a firm understanding of risk and how to mitigate it. The traits discussed can be applied to doctors and investment managers as well (on a different scale) yet the overlaps are plentiful. Although the nature of those vocations may be different, the mindset and mental wiring of individuals isn’t all that diverse. They clear out all of the noise and make sound decisions based on methods they’ve practiced and refined over time. Not everyone is going to be a successful sports investor, but if you mimic some of the traits the pros display, the likelihood of success will be greater. Good luck and keep cashing!"
UW, I presume you wrote the above thesis, since I see no source or credit. Good job!! I'm sure Edward is looking for a good writer.
It doesn't have anything to do with being conservative, it defies basic math and is indeed a terrible idea as Tommy pointed out.
Streaks are unpredictable; they don't know when one is happening nor when a season begins or ends. A couple other mathematical concepts worth mentioning...
1. You should technically be betting less if your BR has decreased, so you're already betting a higher % of your BR if you haven't decreased your bet size.
2. You're essentially misapplying the concept of "regression to the mean" as many gamblers do. If you expect Scott to hit say 55% going forward (his mean), he will get there by hitting 55% over the next 1000 plays, not by suddenly hitting well above that for the rest of the season just b/c he has started off so far below his historical win rate.
You're not being aggressive, you're hoping to get lucky.
Forgive the novice question goats. But is the "good" % of bankroll per play 1-2%? Think I read that somewhere on here some time back. Could obv be wrong. Sadly for me. My roll is always so low I don't rly take it into account. Prob a mistake yes.
Forgive the novice question goats. But is the "good" % of bankroll per play 1-2%? Think I read that somewhere on here some time back. Could obv be wrong. Sadly for me. My roll is always so low I don't rly take it into account. Prob a mistake yes.
The short/simple answer is since it's hard enough to quantify your own edge, let alone someone else's, yes, betting closer to 1% is generally a more prudent, conservative approach. If you're truly making 55% bets, you'd be underbetting, which in a vaccuum is just as bad as overbetting, but there is obviously some real world merit to winning less as opposed to going bust, especially if betting is recreational or side-income.
Comments
If you bet a changing % weekly or monthly according to your B/R then by all means your bets will be smaller. I'm not of that mind set. I bet a certain % consistently through the good and the bad. I make sure my % will withstand long losing streak. Some years my % may increase but that will be my bet for that particular season or year depending again on my B/R.
The way I look at it is if your betting say lets use amounts say you bet $500 a game and your record is 10-20 but over many years and many plays you have shown your a 55% winner over those years. Now you go on this losing streak and change your bet to $200 and by end of year you attain your usual 55% you can actually be a loser for the year. It's like guessing when your going to get hot and break out. there's many ways to play your B/R do what's comfortable for you. The first 10W 20 L = <6k> the next 30 games you win 20 and lose 10 betting $200 = +1800 so now you 30-30 losing 4.2k using a simple -110
I can't play like that. I bet a certain % where I could lose 50 str8 games and still be in action.
Would they all have moved 4 points? Probably not. Would they have all closed at the release line if we hadn't released them? No. The more important point is that no one saw value in playing opposite even getting an extra 4 points. Opinions & money are exactly what shapes the market. The market (RAS & followers included in this case) determined what the most accurate line possible was, and that is where the numbers closed.
Are you trying to make a case that RAS involvement in the market makes closing lines on RAS releases less accurate than other games? I would argue that the opposite is true.
Back to this. I think we can all agree that variance has played into Scott's bad start (to what degree is debatable), but looking ahead to the next 50-100 plays, what CLV should we hope to see so we can feel confident he's still got it?
Basically, what's good CLV for the NFL? I see alot about college CLV but not so much on CLV as it relates to the NFL.
Nope I'm trying to make the case that you (your personal bets, your followers, your "brand") generate your own CLV. Again there's nothing wrong with that, I just wish that you'd admit that joe basement with such a handicapping "gift" would not get such line moves. You've long maintained that a capper can't be considered "good"/respected/trusted/etc unless he gets massive CLV. I agree that he has to beat the market consistently, but to expect anybody else in the world to approach your CLV is ridiculous (except for zomg bw of course).
Again, I guess we are seeing the process play out in front of our very eyes. You thought enough of SY and ss to support and recommend them, yet there they sit with -CLV. Realize it's a marathon not a sprint but it is what it is.
I've never said CLV had to be "massive" for a capper to be good/respected/trusted, etc. I simply said the +.11 and +.2 in your signature wasn't enough to suggest to me that you'd likely be a long term winner. I'll stand by that.
CLV is just another idicator/predictor that I believe is a valuable tool and far too underutilized. It wouldn't even shock me if there were long term winners out there who got zero or negative CLV, but it would be much more of execption than the norm.
As for RAS, unless you are seeing some sort of market inefficiency in the closing lines of RAS releases (which you just said you don't), I STILL don't get your point? Obviously opinions weigh heavily in the market (as they should), but even a sharp Joe Blow in the basement that no one knows about could blow our CLV away if he played earlier in the market than when we release.
Why? They are games of public interest bet on the most and viewed by many on TV. The less bet or viewed games usually don't circle around the number with 2-5 minutes left
IMO some bad people want a piece of the NFL pie and they will do anything to get it.
It's complicated to determine who's really doing it.
It's almost like when the Bank of Japan intervenes on currency trades and 5 minutes later they say, Who me?? No we didn't do that.
in other word, sixth sense is GOOD!
he posted some analysis here last year also on the NFL, they were outstanding. have faith.
What? This post is brutal. Please define public.
1. The community or the people as a whole.
2. A group of people sharing a common interest: the reading public or gambling public.
Please note: bankers are not included. Hi Jamie Diamond
60% the rest of the way, on 6 picks/week, still won't get him back to even. I do expect him to be plus on the rest of the season, but all the way back to breakeven is unlikely.
"The difference between being a successful sports investor and a long term loser is razor thin. Profitability comes down to a handful of wagers each year that make the difference on the annual balance sheet. However, what if that margin of error was based on intangibles rather than numbers themselves? As we examine the traits of a winner, we come to realize it takes more than knowing the weather, injuries, algorithms, or getting the best of the number to be a successful sports bettor. There are certain personality traits long term profitable bettors share and by making a few tweaks to your own approach, you can become part of that elite fraternity.
You hear all the time the most successful bettors are emotionless. Long term successful handicappers don’t allow themselves to rise and fall with every touchdown or interception because the season is filled with huge momentum swings. More importantly, they don’t allow a single loss or a short-term losing streak to effect their next wager, a concept the betting public never understands. Bailing out or getting too emotional over a losing wager ends up creating a disastrous situation long term. In some cases, this is a learned trait; meaning an approach devoid of emotion can be cultivated. A prime real world example is you’re more apt to get into a bar fight at 22 then at 42 since maturation eliminates a lot of our propensity to make poor choices (although we’ve seen plenty of grown men try to exert old man strength, usually in SEC colors).
Professional sports investors are realists. A realist is defined by Merriam-Webster as concerned with fact and rejects the impractical and visionary. This applies to sports wagering in two ways: (i) having realistic expectations and (ii) applying proper factors to handicapping methods. There’s a large expectation gap between what the public believes is the normal winning percentage versus what professionals strive to achieve. Veteran bettors understand that 55% is profitable over the course of a full season especially when big bets are structured correctly.
A mistake we see all too often from novice bettors is applying the wrong factors into their handicapping equation; specifically weighting injuries. Unless it’s Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, players don’t matter (of course there are a few but you get the idea)! That may sound like a blanket statement but at the highest levels it’s not the marquee names that need to be properly accounted for each game. This alone is why you don’t see lines make wild fluctuations when an injury is announced to anyone but the truly elite talents. The public attempts to apply Fantasy Football logic to handicapping and believe me, there is minimal correlation if any between the two. While the public is yapping about skill position guys, the pros are analyzing offensive and defensive lines, nickelbacks, depth charts, and the tone in the locker room.
Discipline and patience are key traits found in seasoned bettors. Profitable sports investors are careful with their money and deliberate with where they choose to invest. Quite frankly, they have to be because this is their sole means of income and sports wagering doesn’t reward the rash or spontaneous. Joel Anderson’s book titled, “Trading, Sex & Dying”, defines the Adventurer as always looking for action, when at times it might be wise to wait. There isn’t a right or wrong number of games to bet, you move whenever you see value. Like a surgeon, sharps move with precision and calculated movements since it’s not about the action but rather thoughtful examination and careful consideration of where their money is best served.
Successful pros are the type that hang in the background and draw little to no attention to themselves (I hope you’re reading this Floyd Mayweather). It is that introverted, no ego nature, that allows a pro to properly analyze and then get a wager down without sending vibrations through the marketplace. This is a similar approach that successful investment managers take when attempting to place large orders around the Street; thus allowing them to get the price they want. In our case as a sports investor, it allows you to get the line you want when you want it. Sports, by nature, are highly competitive and the same can be said for successful sports investors. These individuals are highly competitive, workaholics that understand success comes with a price.
Profitability doesn’t come overnight and it takes long hours to hone successful methods. For the elite, the drive to be “right” pushes them to fine tune their skills and approach. Successful sports investors are not escape gamblers meaning they aren’t gambling to escape reality, this is their reality. They approach the task with a firm understanding of risk and how to mitigate it. The traits discussed can be applied to doctors and investment managers as well (on a different scale) yet the overlaps are plentiful. Although the nature of those vocations may be different, the mindset and mental wiring of individuals isn’t all that diverse. They clear out all of the noise and make sound decisions based on methods they’ve practiced and refined over time. Not everyone is going to be a successful sports investor, but if you mimic some of the traits the pros display, the likelihood of success will be greater. Good luck and keep cashing!"
With all due respect, that's terrible logic. There is no reason to believe that his plays suddenly have more +EV due to his recent cold streak.
It doesn't have anything to do with being conservative, it defies basic math and is indeed a terrible idea as Tommy pointed out.
Streaks are unpredictable; they don't know when one is happening nor when a season begins or ends. A couple other mathematical concepts worth mentioning...
1. You should technically be betting less if your BR has decreased, so you're already betting a higher % of your BR if you haven't decreased your bet size.
2. You're essentially misapplying the concept of "regression to the mean" as many gamblers do. If you expect Scott to hit say 55% going forward (his mean), he will get there by hitting 55% over the next 1000 plays, not by suddenly hitting well above that for the rest of the season just b/c he has started off so far below his historical win rate.
You're not being aggressive, you're hoping to get lucky.
I don't get it. He's totally due, right?
UW, I presume you wrote the above thesis, since I see no source or credit. Good job!! I'm sure Edward is looking for a good writer.
Is your name Todd or Mike Underwraps? If not you totally jacked his article.
Forgive the novice question goats. But is the "good" % of bankroll per play 1-2%? Think I read that somewhere on here some time back. Could obv be wrong. Sadly for me. My roll is always so low I don't rly take it into account. Prob a mistake yes.
The complete answer: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Playing around with a Kelly calculator is also a good way to get a grasp of the concept. Here's one: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/
The short/simple answer is since it's hard enough to quantify your own edge, let alone someone else's, yes, betting closer to 1% is generally a more prudent, conservative approach. If you're truly making 55% bets, you'd be underbetting, which in a vaccuum is just as bad as overbetting, but there is obviously some real world merit to winning less as opposed to going bust, especially if betting is recreational or side-income.
It's in quotes. i copied it. Its from Todd