Betting Talk

Boxing: Bradley v Pacman

jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
edited June 2012 in Sports Betting
Sat 6/9 121 Bradley points handicap +25½ -195 5Dimes

Comments

  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    In order for this bet to lose, Manny Pacquiao needs to score a KO or more or less win 11 out of 12 rounds. My general feel on these wagers is that they are posted by 5D to get square action on a big favorite at +$. For example Cotto, cashed the points handicap easy a few weeks back and he only won 3 out of 12 rounds vs the best boxer on the planet in Floyd Mayweather.

    Manny has not looked good in his recent fights. He was unable to put away Mosley and his legs looked questionable. Vs Marquez in his last fight many ppl had this fight as a loss for Manny including myself. Again questionable legs and Marquez scoring a lot with flush counter punches. It was judged as a split decision with one of the 3 judges scoring a draw.

    At the weigh-in today, Manny has a pound on Bradley but Bradley is clearly the stronger looking fighter. Bradley is about as motivated as one can be with a legit shot at an upset. He will crowd Manny and use his head, often illegally to frustrate him. Lots of power to the body could take Manny's legs out sooner than anticipated. Lots of boxing reporters have said Manny looked "off". He has contemplated retirement recently and in my opinion he has lost some fire power in his punches. In a nutshell, he is prime for an upset and to cash this one we just need to avoid a KO and win 2+ rounds.

    The over is juiced at -260 and the fight to go the distance is -155. So obviously oddmakers see this one going the distance. To cash here we need 2 rounds, I think Bradley has a legit shot at a win, but if its close the fix could be in as it has been in the past in Vegas with Manny and Top Rank.

    Bradley is a very live dog and should go the distance with a longshot chance at a KO. If Manny gets the decision it will be a close one, -195 is a fine price here.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Anywhere to watch this fight online? Jaybiz Great write-up enjoyed reading it.
  • VituperateVituperate Member
    edited June 2012
    Nice write up...somebody heard you...now -225 on 5D

    BOL
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Thanks there are few things I enjoy more than boxing. They adjusted that line but you can still get money at -197 for effectively the same bet

    Bet against a Manny KO
    #220 Any other result -197
  • VituperateVituperate Member
    edited June 2012
    Thanks Jaybiz...BOL.

    Late line movement on Bradley is NOT public money. Tonight is the Pacman's biggest test in years. Member of Congress now, a singer, marital problems and recent conversion to strict Christianity adherence all signs of trouble. Meanwhile Bradley is undefeated and hungry. Boxing has seen this scenario before.

    Win or lose, taking a gamble on Bradley in some manner is the right side.

    BOL
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Back in the day when you seen large late money that was the guy you wanted. I don't follow boxing anymore but it's probably the same.
  • VituperateVituperate Member
    edited June 2012
    For example...this story is hitting SI this week. Pacman is not quite the perfect soul he would have us imagine. But then, who is?

    He has been a great champion. If he loses, I think he may retire...maybe if he wins too.

    With a 54-3 career record, Manny Pacquiao—the current Welterweight title holder who will take on Timothy Bradley tonight at MGM Grand—is an unquestioned winner.

    But outside of the ring, he’s a bonafide loser. Or at least he was.

    A Sports Illustrated article that hit newsstands on Wednesday detailed Pacquiao’s bout with gambling, an addiction that nearly cost him his marriage and a good portion of his fortune until he decided to give it up late last year.

    According to SI, Pacquiao once asked promoter Bob Arum for a $2 million cash advance to pay off a gambling debt, and Arum conceded that he has wired Pacquiao thousands of dollars to casinos a half-dozen times.

    “[Pacquiao] had one of the worst gambling habits of any athlete I’ve ever known,” Arum told SI. “He was addicted to it.”

    The 33-year-old Pacquiao said he turned to religion and has cleaned up his personal life, ridding himself of his gambling ways while also repairing his marriage to wife Jinkee.

    Pacquiao is currently listed as a -450 favorite to defeat Bradley, who enters with a perfect 28-0 record including 12 knockouts.

    Pacquiao is riding a 15-fight win streak and hasn’t lost since 2005.
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Not putting much stock in out the ring stuff. What I do put stock in is issues in previous fights with his legs. Issues in camp with Ariza. Roach training way too many fighters at once. The list goes on. Manny was 147 yesterday, the heaviest he has ever been. All this stuff adds up as to a fighter who is prime for an upset. Even Roach said if he doesnt get a good showing from Manny tonight he will ask him to retire. What worries me is how Manny and Top Rank have a history of winning fights with questionable judging. Ie Rios, JMM, etc. I think Bradley is live and taking the +350 is good value, but the -195 was a no brainer. For record keeping purposes that's the price listing but truth be told I got an even better number. That prop is currently being dealt at -245.

    For the sake of the sport I hope the judging is not biased, but I've seen it before too many times to want to risk it.

    As for line moves I've seen sharp ones and bad ones (big move on Ortiz when he fought Floyd comes to mind). I don't be nearly enough volume to have a feel for line moves but as a general principle I don't want the line moving against me.

    GL tonight guys. Hope we get a good fight.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    jaybiz773 wrote: »
    Not putting much stock in out the ring stuff. What I do put stock in is issues in previous fights with his legs. Issues in camp with Ariza. Roach training way too many fighters at once. The list goes on. Manny was 147 yesterday, the heaviest he has ever been. All this stuff adds up as to a fighter who is prime for an upset. Even Roach said if he doesnt get a good showing from Manny tonight he will ask him to retire. What worries me is how Manny and Top Rank have a history of winning fights with questionable judging. Ie Rios, JMM, etc. I think Bradley is live and taking the +350 is good value, but the -195 was a no brainer. For record keeping purposes that's the price listing but truth be told I got an even better number. That prop is currently being dealt at -245.

    For the sake of the sport I hope the judging is not biased, but I've seen it before too many times to want to risk it.

    As for line moves I've seen sharp ones and bad ones (big move on Ortiz when he fought Floyd comes to mind). I don't be nearly enough volume to have a feel for line moves but as a general principle I don't want the line moving against me.

    GL tonight guys. Hope we get a good fight.

    Just like with MMA I dont really think the judging is crooked. Though in boxing's past clearly there were fixed fights. I just think Judges are unprofessional and see a guy like Manny and say well that round was close but hes awesome so I will give him that round. If you give every close round to the same guy, it becomes very hard for him to lose a decision. That is a gross simplification of things but I think you understand my point.
  • VituperateVituperate Member
    edited June 2012
    I bet Bradley to win at +370 and I am completely shocked by the verdict. A total travesty of justice. The worst boxing ruling I have ever seen.

    I will take the money but I feel a little bit dirty for doing so.

    Congrats Jaybiz on a sharp boxing play.
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    kass101 wrote: »
    Just like with MMA I dont really think the judging is crooked. Though in boxing's past clearly there were fixed fights. I just think Judges are unprofessional and see a guy like Manny and say well that round was close but hes awesome so I will give him that round. If you give every close round to the same guy, it becomes very hard for him to lose a decision. That is a gross simplification of things but I think you understand my point.

    Still don't think the judging is crooked? Bradley fought a respectable fight but it wasn't even that close. Unreal.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Vituperate wrote: »
    I bet Bradley to win at +370 and I am completely shocked by the verdict. A total travesty of justice. The worst boxing ruling I have ever seen.

    I will take the money but I feel a little bit dirty for doing so.

    Congrats Jaybiz on a sharp boxing play.

    I like Tim Bradley but the whole fight from Pac not being ready was garbage and not fun to watch.

    As much as I would love to say it is just incompetence, the whole scenario just sets up way to easily as a way for Pac to keep fighting and making money without ducking Floyd now. Oh well he wasnt ready, he still won the fight, he got screwed by the judges = Big payday for two top rank fighters without Floyd even have to be discussed.

    Just a sad night for boxing honestly.
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    I gave Bradley 5 maybe 6 rounds. 2 of the judges gave him 7. Not a compete travesty as I've seen worse. The feed I had one of the announcers had it as a coin flip and thought either fighter could have won. I didn't agree. Interesting sport to cap, that's for sure.
  • Clark GriswoldClark Griswold Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    jaybiz773 wrote: »
    I gave Bradley 5 maybe 6 rounds. 2 of the judges gave him 7. Not a compete travesty as I've seen worse. The feed I had one of the announcers had it as a coin flip and thought either fighter could have won. I didn't agree. Interesting sport to cap, that's for sure.

    Bradley won 1 maybe 2 rounds. He was beat to the punch all night long. Didn't land anything significant and was rocked multiple times. Another embarrassment for boxing.
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Lampley called it the worst he had ever seen. The numbers make it look even worse. At best you can find Bradley 4 rounds out of rounds 1-2 and 10-12. And that's it. No way in the world a champion should lose their belt in that spot. Just another huge embarrassment for boxing and it just became even more irrelevant, if that's even possible.
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    He for sure won rounds 1 and 2, and likely 3 rds from rd 9 thru 12. That's 5. You could argue he stole one or 2 of the middle rounds. I don't think he did, but I gave him a solid 4 or 5 rounds.

    If you think this is the worst judging you've ever seen, then you clearly aren't watching the sport. Abril vs Rios was miles worse last month. In the last year there have been at least 3 or 4 fights with worse scoring. It is what it is. Because it's Manny this makes ESPN. Guys watching FNF, every HBO and Shobox card know this is par for the course.
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    I didnt call it the worst I have ever seen, Lampley did. It's very bad because of the profile of the fighter who got screwed. At least WWE admits they are fixed. Boxing is pitiful. Its dying off and when you have champions treated like manny was last night, I say good riddance.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    if its par for the course then thats even worse. how in the F can this be allowed so often? IMO this should be an easy fix.
  • ContrarianContrarian Banned
    edited June 2012
    kass101 wrote: »
    Just like with MMA I dont really think the judging is crooked. Though in boxing's past clearly there were fixed fights. I just think Judges are unprofessional and see a guy like Manny and say well that round was close but hes awesome so I will give him that round. If you give every close round to the same guy, it becomes very hard for him to lose a decision. That is a gross simplification of things but I think you understand my point.



    Notsomuch
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    LAS VEGAS -- Stunning, simply stunning.

    Manny Pacquiao looked rejuvenated after a controversial split decision win over Juan Manuel Marquez in November, but in what will surely go down as one of the most controversial decisions in boxing history -- one of the worst, really -- Timothy Bradley Jr. was awarded a split-decision win to claim a welterweight title on Saturday night before 14,206 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

    This time, the judges got him. And they got him good. Maybe it was a makeup call for the Marquez fight?

    Whatever it was, it was a shocking result after Pacquiao had spent virtually all of the fight beating Bradley to the punch, strafing him with power shots from both hands and visibly rocking him on multiple occasions.

    Frankly, Pacquiao looked dominant, and those who thought he had lost a step after the performance against Marquez were wrong.

    Those who thought his new devotion to his Catholic faith since that controversial win might lead him to be more focused on the Bible than the Bradley fight were also mistaken.

    And those who thought Pacquiao's coming in at a career-heavy 147 pounds was a sign that he wasn't in top shape were also mistaken.

    But Bradley still got the decision.

    Pacquiao, of course, thought he won.

    "No doubt," he said.

    Judge Jerry Roth had it 115-113 for Pacquiao, but C.J. Ross and Duane Ford both scored it 115-113 for Bradley, a junior welterweight titlist who moved up to challenge Pacquiao in his fourth title defense.

    ESPN.com had it 119-109 for Pacquiao. HBO's unofficial judge, Harold Lederman, also had it 119-109 for Pacquiao, meaning he gave Bradley only one round. Most ringside media also scored it clearly for Pacquiao.

    "I did my best, but I guess my best wasn't good enough," Pacquiao said. "I've been watching his fight tapes. There were no surprises. He never hurt me with his punches. Most of them hit my arms. I don't know what happened."

    What happened was that two judges had a horrible night. Even the judge who had it for Pacquiao wasn't so hot.

    The night started weird and got even stranger with the decision. Bradley was gloved up and ready to go, but Pacquiao (54-4-2, 38 KOs) was nowhere to be found. He wasn't in his dressing room. As it turned out, he was working out on a treadmill to make sure he didn't suffer the calf cramps that have bothered him in past fights.

    He finally arrived back in his dressing room about 15 minutes later, but still needed to receive referee instructions and get his gloves put on, forcing a lengthy delay before the ring walks.

    Top Rank's Bob Arum, who promotes Pacquiao and Bradley, was stunned. He said he had it 118-110 for Pacquiao.

    "When I came into the ring [after the fight], I said to Tim, 'You did very well,' and he said 'I tried hard and I couldn't beat the guy. You talk about killing boxing. Even [Bradley's manager, Cameron Dunkin] had it 8-4 for Pacquiao.

    "Something like this is so outlandish, it's a death knell for the sport. This is f
    nuts. I have both guys, and I'll make a lot of money in the rematch, but it's ridiculous. You have these old f---- who don't know what the hell they're looking at. It's incompetence. Nobody who knows anything about boxing could have Bradley ahead in the fight."

    Pacquiao has a rematch clause in his contract, and the date was already determined to be Nov. 10 in the event of a rematch. Bradley even had a mock oversized ticket and mock poster printed to show off during the promotion to show people his confidence.

    Bradley (29-0, 12 KOs) didn't sound like a man who thought he won the fight.

    "It was a good fight. Every round was pretty close," Bradley said. "Pacquiao won the early rounds, I won the later rounds with my jab. I have to go home and see the tape to see who won."

    The CompuBox statistics favored Pacquiao, who landed more punches than Bradley in 10 of the 12 rounds. Pacquiao landed 253 of 751 punches (34 percent), while Bradley landed 159 of 839 (19 percent). Pacquiao also landed 82 more power shots (190-108).

    Although Bradley was game, he didn't seem to land many effective or clean shots. Pacquiao, meanwhile, landed a lot of shots. He shook Bradley several times in the fight, including with a combination late in the third round.

    "Manny hurt me a few times in the fight with his left," Bradley said. "He's a beast, but my corner told me if I won the last round, I would win the fight. I gotta give Manny a rematch.

    "Manny was aggressive, but he only landed four or five clean shots. He's a strong puncher, he rocked me a couple times. I withstood it and fought hard to the end."

    In the fourth round, Pacquiao clobbered Bradley with two left hands that clearly rocked him and turned his legs to jelly.

    On and on it went. Pacquiao, 33, whose 15-fight winning streak ended, hurt Bradley with a left hand again in the toe-to-toe fifth round. Bradley crashed into the ropes and Pacquiao followed with combinations. Bradley showed a good chin and was swinging for the fences, but he was mostly missing.

    Then there was the sixth round, when Pacquiao trapped Bradley, 28, in the corner and unloaded several shots. Yet, two judges didn't acknowledge it.

    Bradley, who earned a minimum of $5 million while Pacquiao made at least $26 million, fought most of the fight with an injured left ankle, which he rolled in the fourth round.

    But he shook it off.

    "I stepped on his ankle," Bradley said. "I'm really not sure what happened. I was just trying to get out of the way of Manny's punches. I got my second wind in the sixth round. I was sticking and moving."

    There will be an uproar over the decision. The sides will say their peace and then they will likely settle matters -- which really don't need to be settled given Pacquiao's dominance -- in that Nov. 10 rematch.

    "This feels great, but I'm not satisfied," Bradley said. "I hear the boos. People think I lost. Let's do it again. This is boxing. Nov. 10, we can do the rematch."

    Pacquiao said he wants the rematch, too.

    "No problem," he said. "I'll be ready for the rematch."
  • bkeillerbkeiller Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Tony Atlas on ESPN said that if you are being straight up honest you call it what it is and that is "corrupt".
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    He won the 1st 2 rounds easy, and there's no way he didn't grab a minimum of 2 of the champoinship rounds. Even Freddy Roach said Bradley won the 11th.

    Not gonna sit here and go back and forth all day, but go back and re-watch the 1st 2. Hands were up and his defense was GREAT. He led off the jab and did a masterful job of blocking Manny's jab and also counter punching off of Manny's straight left (his power shot). Then look at his footwork. Right foot always on the outside of Manny's lead foot (textbook strategy on fighting southpaws) which effectively takes away the straight left.

    Bradley did that for a solid 2 rounds and then seemed to begin to get gassed. Hands were dropping and instead of circling AWAY from Manny's power shot he began moving to his right directly into the line of fire and taking shots. He was stunned a few times, but the thing is being stunned still just gets you a 10-9 round. Bradley ended the fight very well in rounds 10-12. So the question is did Manny win every round 3-9 and at least one of the last 3 rounds. Judge Roth thought so and gave him the 115-113. The other 2 judges gave Bradley more credit giving him what i assume was 1 and 2, one middle round, and 9-12.

    Anyone who said Bradley only won 1 round is a fool and doesn't understand the sport. I actually find the amount of backlash comical, as this happens more times than not and has been this way for decades (Just ask Juan Manuel Marquez). I love the sport but at the end of the day I want to cash tickets as being a fan doesn't do much for my pocketbook. +25.5 was a gift, thanks 5D. 2 more good fights next weekend including my new favorite heavyweight in action. :clapup:
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Your bet was spot on and was never in question. Bradley won the first 2 rounds and then I think you give him 2 more out of 9-12. Maybe 3 more. But at best should have been 7-5. Like the Marquez fight, I think you have to clearly beat the champ to win his belt. Outside of those 2 judges, I don't think anyone else thought Bradley won the fight. You can argue how close it was but everyone pretty much is in agreement on who won. Just another in a long list of sad days for boxing.
  • BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    jaybiz773 wrote: »
    He won the 1st 2 rounds easy, and there's no way he didn't grab a minimum of 2 of the champoinship rounds. Even Freddy Roach said Bradley won the 11th.

    ...

    Thanks for the breakdown of the fight. I see both sides and I agree that it was closer than most think. I just didn't see him do any damage other than fighting a text book fight and finishing strong. Is that enough to win? The judges may have been piffed from the late start lol... It was funny though at the start of the fight the announcers were clearly upset with the selection of judges and the use of local LV people rather than bringing in a more high profile panel.

    Lesson here: Don't leave the judges with a decision..
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    BIGtimerDC wrote: »
    Lesson here: Don't leave the judges with a decision..

    In my experience capping boxing this has basically become my #1 rule, or at least be able to within a degree of confidence try to understand the judges and "is there a significant home court advantage" so to speak. Bad judging used to be so bothersome, but when you acknowledge it is the rule rather than the exception to the rule it becomes easier. In the past 14 months or so here is a short list of fights with bad judging off the top of my head...

    Khan v Peterson
    Rodriguez v Wolak I
    Pac v Marquez III
    Rios v Abril
    Kirkland v Molina
    Kirkland v Angulo
    Williams v Lara

    Not exactly a short list.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    jaybiz773 wrote: »
    In my experience capping boxing this has basically become my #1 rule, or at least be able to within a degree of confidence try to understand the judges and "is there a significant home court advantage" so to speak. Bad judging used to be so bothersome, but when you acknowledge it is the rule rather than the exception to the rule it becomes easier. In the past 14 months or so here is a short list of fights with bad judging off the top of my head...

    Khan v Peterson
    Rodriguez v Wolak I
    Pac v Marquez III
    Rios v Abril
    Kirkland v Molina
    Kirkland v Angulo
    Williams v Lara

    Not exactly a short list.

    I like a lot of what you have to say but I totally dont understand your hate for Kirkland as neither of the fights you mentioned went to the judges and as much hate as the Molina ruling got initially, its pretty clear what the rule is and Molina's corner obviously broke said rule.
  • jaybiz773jaybiz773 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    Hate Kirkland??? I love the guy!!!! Action fighter who lets his hands go. In fact the way Molina was holding was driving me up the wall. However after the DQ they read the cards.....they were bad, very bad. Also the Angulo fight in Mexico had Kirkland down a bunch when he scored the KO. FWIW I had Kirkland in both of the fights listed above. I'm not suggesting I was upset at all, simply indicating that even though the judges decision didn't come into play, it was a bad one and could have really affected the outcome.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited June 2012
    jaybiz773 wrote: »
    Hate Kirkland??? I love the guy!!!! Action fighter who lets his hands go. In fact the way Molina was holding was driving me up the wall. However after the DQ they read the cards.....they were bad, very bad. Also the Angulo fight in Mexico had Kirkland down a bunch when he scored the KO. FWIW I had Kirkland in both of the fights listed above. I'm not suggesting I was upset at all, simply indicating that even though the judges decision didn't come into play, it was a bad one and could have really affected the outcome.

    Well, I like you even more now. I agree that the cards were bad, didnt even think about that though when I saw you post them as bad decisions. I guess in regards to the Angolo fight I should have figured out where you were coming from.

    I watched the fight again and I think this was one of those fights that was just really hard to score. But it was a lot close than almost every talking head has made it. Dan Rafael had it 11-1 and gave Pac the last 3 which is crazy.

    I find it funny that I made my post about judges being swayed by the crowd and then HL stated how he didnt like a judge because she tends to get swayed by the crowd. Ironic aint it.

    I think Manny won but there have def been worse.
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