I think it's very likely we see the return of the burn offense tonight. The Irish have used this offense the last three games against Pittsburgh and have won them all with no game exceeding 121 pts. Considering the injuries that the Irish have, the past success and Wagner using some of the same offensive philosophies in their upset against the Panthers, I think the chances are really good that we see this offense tonight. Nobody knows for sure what type of offense we will see out of the Irish but this total has only seen one way action so far.
Pitt was still fouling down 15 with a minute to go. Could only get U 131.5 so was very lucky to cover but you logic was right on. Appreciate the pick!
Last season the Wildcats used a slow down game in both games against Buckeyes, which resulted in two very low scoring games. They almost upset the Buckeyes at home losing by one and in the conference tournament game they took the Buckeyes to overtime. Since this strategy worked fairly well last season I got to feel that they once again try it here in a game that they are a considerable under dog.
I think this is a fair number but these offenses are both just to good. The Cougars are shooting close to 50% and averaged 80 ppg this season. The Gaels while not quite playing at the same pace as the Cougars are shooting 47% and averaging 75 ppg.
618 Davidson OVER 141
The Quakers offense has been consistent pretty much all year and they have shown an improvement over their last five games where they have averaged 73 ppg. The Wildcats have only played two slow pace games all year and that was against the usual suspects in Woffard and Presbyterian. They should be able to get the pace to where they like it. The Wildcats have played a very challenging schedule this year and despite this have averaged 76 ppg. I think they should have a good shot at scoring 80+ at home against an easier opponent.
Crazy number for a Bearcat game. Sure they played fast pace in their last four games all against very bad teams. Not likely for the offense to have the same success against the Sooners. The Bearcat defense is not that bad either.
Earlier this year we saw the Monarchs travel to Kentucky and implement a slow down game keeping the game closer than many anticipated. I think we see a repeat of that game here once again. The Tigers have to travel a considerable distance and are up against a team that plays excellent defense. I dont think the scoring will come quite as easy as it has all year for the Tigers. The Monarchs are only shooting 39% and the offense looks to have taken a major step backwards this season.
876 Niagara OVER 141
The Purple Eagles defense has stopped no one this season. They currently are #325 in the nation in defense efficiency, they have allowed opponents to shoot 48% and average 78 ppg. The Bonnies offense has picked it up the last four games where they have shot 46, 58, 41 and 52%. The Purple Eagles offense is much improved over last season. Even though they dont shoot it particularly well they find ways to put points on the board averaging 74.5 ppg over their last five games. Last year the total on this game was 143.5 and this year the Bonnies offense is about the same while Niagaras offense is much better so Ill take a shot on the over.
The Cougars shooting 48% from the field this season
The Beavers shooting 50% from the field this season
Both teams play at a fast pace. I see no reason to take the under.
598 Wichita St. UNDER 151.5
This is just a plain crazy total. I know Creighton has done really well especially on offense this season but I think this conference opponents know how to defend them. After putting up big offensive numbers they only shot 38% in their first league game against Missouri St. None of the last nine games between these teams has come within 16 pts of this total. Both of these teams pushed the pace in the non-conference games but I dont think we see that same type of pace in these league games. Plus the Shockers defense is well above average holding opponents to 38% shooting this season.
Don't agree with the move. The Cowboys have had trouble scoring all year certainly things are not going to come any easier today against a ACC team. Plus the Cowboys are recently down a couple of guards.
The Tigers have yet to win a game this season and most of it has to do with the offense, which ranks third from last in scoring offense at 52 ppg. The few times this season where the Tigers did score 60+ points where in games where the pace was fast. With it being so early in conference play and the Tigers at home in a game they should be competitive in, I believe the pace will probably be on the slower side. Northeasterns offense is not anything to get excited about either. They are shooting just 41% on the season and were held under 60 pts in their last three games.
You like VCU over 137.5. Do you mind ?'s in your thread. Thanks
Did not play that game. Hofstra offense has not done well against the better defenses. I could see them putting up low 60's which makes over kinda of iffy.
The Wildcats offense should have some success tonight. Overall the offense has been strong and really only had two bad games all year and that was against a couple of defenses both in the top ten (Baylor and Ohio St.). The problem with the Wildcats is not with their offense it is defense which lets them down. They have the worst defense in the Big 10 and really have not stopped any of these top 100 rpi teams. Seton Hall, LSU, Creighton, Ohio St. and Baylor have combined to shoot 51% against Northwestern. While Illinois is not a great team on offense I got to think they find a way to score a few points tonight.
774 Memphis UNDER 147.5
I know they scored a million pts in the first meeting between these teams. A lot of time these early season games can turn into scoring contests. Since that Louisville game where the Tigers were playing about as fast as a team can play none of these last four games featured that type of pace and their was some bad fast paced opponents like Lipscomb where you would have thought they could have played fast. It looks like Tennessee wants to value the possessions a little more this time since they thought they put up too many shots early in the shot clock in the previous game between these teams. I just dont think we are going to see that same type of pace this game and for this to get over the number both teams are going to have to shoot it well or one team needs to get very hot and I just cant see that happening.
776 Oklahoma St. UNDER 132.5
The Cowboys cannot score against good or bad teams and things probably wont come any easier as junior swingman Jean-Paul Olukemi, the teams third-leading scorer, will miss the rest of the season after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament on Saturday. The Red Raiders have shot the ball well this season but they have played no one. Their strength of schedule is #335 and despite this theyre a turnover machine ranking #327 with turnovers on 25.6% of its possessions. I dont see the Red Raiders shooting it any where near their season numbers and if the turn it over 20 times like they have been doing they will be hard pressed to score 50 here.
Should be an uptempo game. Troy has scored at least 70 in every home game this season. MTSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation at 51% from the field this year. Going up against this bad Trojan defense the potential is there for lots of pts to be scored. Last year they did not shoot it well against Troy, but that should not be the case this time around.
580 Loyola Marymount OVER 148
I see no reason to get away from these BYU games over the total especially when they are playing a team capable of scoring a few points as well. The Cougars come into this game on fire on offense. Over their last six games they are shooting 49% from the field and averaging 86 ppg and its not like they played a bunch of cup cakes with games against both Baylor and St. Marys in that mix. Both these teams like to push the pace and with how good the Cougars offense has been you got to think they once again get in the mid 80s and if they do that we dont need many from LMU to get this one over the number.
638 Southern Utah OVER 151.5
I dont think the Thunderbirds defense stands much of a chance at stopping the Jack Rabbits offense. The Jacks have by far the best offense in the Summit League and they come into this game playing about as well as a team can play on offense where they shot 50%+ in their last three games. The Thunderbirds have struggled on defense this season. Opponents are shooting 49% and their last two league games both UMKC and IPFW shot 50%+ on them. Last year the Jacks scored 105 and 96 on this team and the potential is there for them to repeat this. Southern Utah averages 70 a game so you got to think they do some scoring as well.
I see nothing wrong with Riders offense, they have been fairly consistent in their last 10 games. They have been particularly good lately shooting 50%+ in four out of their last five games. The Peacocks had the great defense last year but this season there has been a significant drop off with the defense. They have also played several fast paced games recently. The games against Canisius, Marist and Texas Arlington were all a faster pace than predicted. Since Rider likes to play fast and the Peacocks have displayed this recent willingness to play a little faster I think there is a good chance this one plays faster than most think. The Peacocks may not have the strongest offense but they get to go up against a defense that has been pretty awful this season. In four league games they have allowed 71, 95, 77 and 86 pts.
The Huskies have only played a handful of games over this number all year. They have the second worse offense in the league and dont really play at that fast of a pace. If games against DePaul and Valparaiso dont go over this total I dont see why this one should.
752 George Washington UNDER 131.5
The Rams have been very un Ram like recently, the last three games have been very slow paced. I think its probably more of the same tonight. Neither one of these teams has been that great offensively, GW has scored 56, 56, 77, 49, 57 in last five while the Rams have scored 53, 78, 54, 79, 61 in last five. The Rams have been without their top scorer Malesivic for the last few games and he remains out with a hand injury.
Helmut, was looking at the 771 UCF/HOU ttl. @ 136(which has moved up decently from open) thinking that most of UCF's games were with lower scoring opponents, this one has a definite over feel to me especially with Rompza back running the offense, these two have historically had higher scoring affairs than this total and I see no difference with this one, would you concur?
Helmut, was looking at the 771 UCF/HOU ttl. @ 136(which has moved up decently from open) thinking that most of UCF's games were with lower scoring opponents, this one has a definite over feel to me especially with Rompza back running the offense, these two have historically had higher scoring affairs than this total and I see no difference with this one, would you concur?
We know Houston is going to play fast no matter what. Looking at UCF when they play fast paced teams the games usually end up with 135-140 total possessions. So if each of these teams can put up a decent OE it should go over. I would think UCF at home should have no problem because Houston defense is kinda shitty. UCF has only allowed one team to score 65+ in their last ten games or so and that was Stetson in one of those tournament games. They played some good teams in that mix like UConn, CoC and Harvard. I just don't trust Houston to score enough they only scored 50 against UTEP last game and if they don't get at least 60 tonight hitting the over is going to be tough.
Yeah was basically thinking the same thing about Houston needing to keep up on their end, but with the line being what it is expecting the pile on in the last 5 min. if it plays out the way I think it will. Thanks for the input!
When the Volunteers hired Martin I thought the defense would improve. Through the first two months of the season the defense was not that good. Now that we have started conference games there has been an improvement in the defense. They held three out of the last four teams to under 40% shooting including one of the best shooting teams in the nation (Florida). In the Bulldogs last game the defense really hurt them as they allowed Arkansas to almost score 100. This was really their only bad defensive game of the year. I think the defense will rebound back at home.
When the Volunteers hired Martin I thought the defense would improve. Through the first two months of the season the defense was not that good. Now that we have started conference games there has been an improvement in the defense. They held three out of the last four teams to under 40% shooting including one of the best shooting teams in the nation (Florida). In the Bulldogs last game the defense really hurt them as they allowed Arkansas to almost score 100. This was really their only bad defensive game of the year. I think the defense will rebound back at home.
I agree with ya about Martin, and I lost quite a few overs waiting for said improvement. It does look like it's finally kicking in. I like the play, good luck!
The Salukies have recently picked up the pace and have gone on to play nine games over the total in a row. The games have averaged 144 ppg during this streak. Indiana St. has played four of their 5 conference games over the total and their games have average 138 ppg in conference games. Might be coming a little late to the party but the Salukies games have been going well over these totals and I'll take a shot on this one since it looks a little low.
Comments
Good luck!
Pitt was still fouling down 15 with a minute to go. Could only get U 131.5 so was very lucky to cover but you logic was right on. Appreciate the pick!
Last season the Wildcats used a slow down game in both games against Buckeyes, which resulted in two very low scoring games. They almost upset the Buckeyes at home losing by one and in the conference tournament game they took the Buckeyes to overtime. Since this strategy worked fairly well last season I got to feel that they once again try it here in a game that they are a considerable under dog.
I think this is a fair number but these offenses are both just to good. The Cougars are shooting close to 50% and averaged 80 ppg this season. The Gaels while not quite playing at the same pace as the Cougars are shooting 47% and averaging 75 ppg.
618 Davidson OVER 141
The Quakers offense has been consistent pretty much all year and they have shown an improvement over their last five games where they have averaged 73 ppg. The Wildcats have only played two slow pace games all year and that was against the usual suspects in Woffard and Presbyterian. They should be able to get the pace to where they like it. The Wildcats have played a very challenging schedule this year and despite this have averaged 76 ppg. I think they should have a good shot at scoring 80+ at home against an easier opponent.
Crazy number for a Bearcat game. Sure they played fast pace in their last four games all against very bad teams. Not likely for the offense to have the same success against the Sooners. The Bearcat defense is not that bad either.
Earlier this year we saw the Monarchs travel to Kentucky and implement a slow down game keeping the game closer than many anticipated. I think we see a repeat of that game here once again. The Tigers have to travel a considerable distance and are up against a team that plays excellent defense. I dont think the scoring will come quite as easy as it has all year for the Tigers. The Monarchs are only shooting 39% and the offense looks to have taken a major step backwards this season.
876 Niagara OVER 141
The Purple Eagles defense has stopped no one this season. They currently are #325 in the nation in defense efficiency, they have allowed opponents to shoot 48% and average 78 ppg. The Bonnies offense has picked it up the last four games where they have shot 46, 58, 41 and 52%. The Purple Eagles offense is much improved over last season. Even though they dont shoot it particularly well they find ways to put points on the board averaging 74.5 ppg over their last five games. Last year the total on this game was 143.5 and this year the Bonnies offense is about the same while Niagaras offense is much better so Ill take a shot on the over.
Hmmm, Lets see .
The Cougars shooting 48% from the field this season
The Beavers shooting 50% from the field this season
Both teams play at a fast pace. I see no reason to take the under.
598 Wichita St. UNDER 151.5
This is just a plain crazy total. I know Creighton has done really well especially on offense this season but I think this conference opponents know how to defend them. After putting up big offensive numbers they only shot 38% in their first league game against Missouri St. None of the last nine games between these teams has come within 16 pts of this total. Both of these teams pushed the pace in the non-conference games but I dont think we see that same type of pace in these league games. Plus the Shockers defense is well above average holding opponents to 38% shooting this season.
Don't agree with the move. The Cowboys have had trouble scoring all year certainly things are not going to come any easier today against a ACC team. Plus the Cowboys are recently down a couple of guards.
YTD 40-34-1
The Tigers have yet to win a game this season and most of it has to do with the offense, which ranks third from last in scoring offense at 52 ppg. The few times this season where the Tigers did score 60+ points where in games where the pace was fast. With it being so early in conference play and the Tigers at home in a game they should be competitive in, I believe the pace will probably be on the slower side. Northeasterns offense is not anything to get excited about either. They are shooting just 41% on the season and were held under 60 pts in their last three games.
Did not play that game. Hofstra offense has not done well against the better defenses. I could see them putting up low 60's which makes over kinda of iffy.
The Wildcats offense should have some success tonight. Overall the offense has been strong and really only had two bad games all year and that was against a couple of defenses both in the top ten (Baylor and Ohio St.). The problem with the Wildcats is not with their offense it is defense which lets them down. They have the worst defense in the Big 10 and really have not stopped any of these top 100 rpi teams. Seton Hall, LSU, Creighton, Ohio St. and Baylor have combined to shoot 51% against Northwestern. While Illinois is not a great team on offense I got to think they find a way to score a few points tonight.
774 Memphis UNDER 147.5
I know they scored a million pts in the first meeting between these teams. A lot of time these early season games can turn into scoring contests. Since that Louisville game where the Tigers were playing about as fast as a team can play none of these last four games featured that type of pace and their was some bad fast paced opponents like Lipscomb where you would have thought they could have played fast. It looks like Tennessee wants to value the possessions a little more this time since they thought they put up too many shots early in the shot clock in the previous game between these teams. I just dont think we are going to see that same type of pace this game and for this to get over the number both teams are going to have to shoot it well or one team needs to get very hot and I just cant see that happening.
776 Oklahoma St. UNDER 132.5
The Cowboys cannot score against good or bad teams and things probably wont come any easier as junior swingman Jean-Paul Olukemi, the teams third-leading scorer, will miss the rest of the season after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament on Saturday. The Red Raiders have shot the ball well this season but they have played no one. Their strength of schedule is #335 and despite this theyre a turnover machine ranking #327 with turnovers on 25.6% of its possessions. I dont see the Red Raiders shooting it any where near their season numbers and if the turn it over 20 times like they have been doing they will be hard pressed to score 50 here.
Should be an uptempo game. Troy has scored at least 70 in every home game this season. MTSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation at 51% from the field this year. Going up against this bad Trojan defense the potential is there for lots of pts to be scored. Last year they did not shoot it well against Troy, but that should not be the case this time around.
580 Loyola Marymount OVER 148
I see no reason to get away from these BYU games over the total especially when they are playing a team capable of scoring a few points as well. The Cougars come into this game on fire on offense. Over their last six games they are shooting 49% from the field and averaging 86 ppg and its not like they played a bunch of cup cakes with games against both Baylor and St. Marys in that mix. Both these teams like to push the pace and with how good the Cougars offense has been you got to think they once again get in the mid 80s and if they do that we dont need many from LMU to get this one over the number.
638 Southern Utah OVER 151.5
I dont think the Thunderbirds defense stands much of a chance at stopping the Jack Rabbits offense. The Jacks have by far the best offense in the Summit League and they come into this game playing about as well as a team can play on offense where they shot 50%+ in their last three games. The Thunderbirds have struggled on defense this season. Opponents are shooting 49% and their last two league games both UMKC and IPFW shot 50%+ on them. Last year the Jacks scored 105 and 96 on this team and the potential is there for them to repeat this. Southern Utah averages 70 a game so you got to think they do some scoring as well.
620 Idaho UNDER 130.5
630 Old Dominion UNDER 113
I see nothing wrong with Riders offense, they have been fairly consistent in their last 10 games. They have been particularly good lately shooting 50%+ in four out of their last five games. The Peacocks had the great defense last year but this season there has been a significant drop off with the defense. They have also played several fast paced games recently. The games against Canisius, Marist and Texas Arlington were all a faster pace than predicted. Since Rider likes to play fast and the Peacocks have displayed this recent willingness to play a little faster I think there is a good chance this one plays faster than most think. The Peacocks may not have the strongest offense but they get to go up against a defense that has been pretty awful this season. In four league games they have allowed 71, 95, 77 and 86 pts.
YTD 43-40-2
The Huskies have only played a handful of games over this number all year. They have the second worse offense in the league and dont really play at that fast of a pace. If games against DePaul and Valparaiso dont go over this total I dont see why this one should.
752 George Washington UNDER 131.5
The Rams have been very un Ram like recently, the last three games have been very slow paced. I think its probably more of the same tonight. Neither one of these teams has been that great offensively, GW has scored 56, 56, 77, 49, 57 in last five while the Rams have scored 53, 78, 54, 79, 61 in last five. The Rams have been without their top scorer Malesivic for the last few games and he remains out with a hand injury.
We know Houston is going to play fast no matter what. Looking at UCF when they play fast paced teams the games usually end up with 135-140 total possessions. So if each of these teams can put up a decent OE it should go over. I would think UCF at home should have no problem because Houston defense is kinda shitty. UCF has only allowed one team to score 65+ in their last ten games or so and that was Stetson in one of those tournament games. They played some good teams in that mix like UConn, CoC and Harvard. I just don't trust Houston to score enough they only scored 50 against UTEP last game and if they don't get at least 60 tonight hitting the over is going to be tough.
When the Volunteers hired Martin I thought the defense would improve. Through the first two months of the season the defense was not that good. Now that we have started conference games there has been an improvement in the defense. They held three out of the last four teams to under 40% shooting including one of the best shooting teams in the nation (Florida). In the Bulldogs last game the defense really hurt them as they allowed Arkansas to almost score 100. This was really their only bad defensive game of the year. I think the defense will rebound back at home.
I agree with ya about Martin, and I lost quite a few overs waiting for said improvement. It does look like it's finally kicking in. I like the play, good luck!
The Salukies have recently picked up the pace and have gone on to play nine games over the total in a row. The games have averaged 144 ppg during this streak. Indiana St. has played four of their 5 conference games over the total and their games have average 138 ppg in conference games. Might be coming a little late to the party but the Salukies games have been going well over these totals and I'll take a shot on this one since it looks a little low.