Question for the Math Guys
BetATL
Super Moderator
Had a buddy of mine recently tell me he likes to do 5 team, 15 point teasers at (-130). I told him that they are most likely not a good wager based on the odds and am working on showing him exactly why that is.
Wanted to make sure I was getting this right....
I went back and collected data from that last 5.5 years of NFL regular season games seeing how many times a team has not covered a spread given a 14.5 point advantage (a push is a loss so it's 14.5 and not 15).
380 out of 2,766 possible side bets have been covered by a spread of 15 or more. That is 13.74%.
The first thing I wanted to show him was the probability of winning a 5 team, 15 point teaser. To do this I took the 13.74% and subtracted it from 1 to get the odds of winning 1 single game with a 14.5 point advantage. (1-.1374) = .8626 or 82.26%. I then raised that to the 5th power because you have to win all 5 games to win the bet. So .8626^5 is .4776 or 47.76%.
47.76% is the probability of winning a 15 game, 5 point teaser (based on data from the last 5.5 years of NFL regular season games).
Then I wanted to show him the Expected Value (EV) of a 15 point, 5 game teaser. To do this I used EV = .4776($100)+.5224($-130) = -$20.15
The expected value on a $100 bet on a 15 point, 5 team teaser is $-20.15.
Finally, I wanted to find the Break-even %. So I did -130/(-130-100) = .5652 or 56.52%. You'd have to hit 56.52% of your 15 team, 5 point teasers at (-130) to break-even.
One thing I could use help on is finding the odds you would need to make this a +EV bet. Can someone help me with that? Thanks
Wanted to make sure I was getting this right....
I went back and collected data from that last 5.5 years of NFL regular season games seeing how many times a team has not covered a spread given a 14.5 point advantage (a push is a loss so it's 14.5 and not 15).
380 out of 2,766 possible side bets have been covered by a spread of 15 or more. That is 13.74%.
The first thing I wanted to show him was the probability of winning a 5 team, 15 point teaser. To do this I took the 13.74% and subtracted it from 1 to get the odds of winning 1 single game with a 14.5 point advantage. (1-.1374) = .8626 or 82.26%. I then raised that to the 5th power because you have to win all 5 games to win the bet. So .8626^5 is .4776 or 47.76%.
47.76% is the probability of winning a 15 game, 5 point teaser (based on data from the last 5.5 years of NFL regular season games).
Then I wanted to show him the Expected Value (EV) of a 15 point, 5 game teaser. To do this I used EV = .4776($100)+.5224($-130) = -$20.15
The expected value on a $100 bet on a 15 point, 5 team teaser is $-20.15.
Finally, I wanted to find the Break-even %. So I did -130/(-130-100) = .5652 or 56.52%. You'd have to hit 56.52% of your 15 team, 5 point teasers at (-130) to break-even.
One thing I could use help on is finding the odds you would need to make this a +EV bet. Can someone help me with that? Thanks
Comments
I agree with all of your math. When you say the odds to be +EV, are you talking the payout that you'd need (ie +105) or the % of that you'd need in each game (ie how high would we need to bump up the 13.74%)?
=(130/230)^(1/5)
that equals 89.2%
That's the winning percentage you need to make -130 a break-even bet. So you need 90% or higher for each of the 5 games (or the average of the 5 games) to make a bet worthwhile.
Talking about the odds (ie +105)
You'd need +110 or better. The breakeven point is 1.0938.
What formula did you use to get that number?
No Problem.
[(1/.4776) - 1] * 100
All Favs 3717-483-32 for 88.5%
All dogs 3635-558-44 for 86.8%
HF 2557-327-20 for 88.7%
RD 2507-370-27 for 87.1%
HD 1128-183-17 for 86%
RF 1160-156-12 for 88.1%
Just add those pushes to the lose numbers (if pushes lose) to get the final percentages.
Datamine special, Div games, HF 1098-128-6 for 89.6% (89.1% with the pushes losing), that's about as close as it will come to being +EV
Do you have a software program to get all that info?
Thanks to all of you
Yes, I have a database that allows me to answer just about any question related to teasers (from an historical perspective).
Anyway you could share the records for 6 point teases. Favorites of 7.5-8.5 and dogs of 1.5-3
This has been discussed at length recently. Search Bill the Cop Teaser or something similar. You will find more info then u ever dreamed of.