Betting Talk

I think it is time Edward catches a break....

burgerburger Senior Member
edited January 2011 in Sports Betting
He deserves a good foul fest in this Depaul game to catch one for a change that we aren't supposed to.
Let's sweat this in boys and girls.
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Comments

  • burgerburger Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    God you are running bad.

    Any basket by Depaul in last 1:20 and you win...
    Any shot attempt on final 2 possessions instead of 2 turnovers and you win just off of instinct foul on rebound.

    Damn.
  • zkc100zkc100 Member
    edited January 2011
    Burns
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    No points or fouls in last 30 seconds of a 10 point game. Meanwhile in every similar situation we have been in lately with the under, its hack city for the last 30 seconds.
  • turksureturksure Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    thought that one was going to work, next time
  • burgerburger Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Disgusting...

    All Depaul had to do was just get a shot off. I'm telling you any shot on those last 2 possessions and we win.
    Depaul pg is so damn selfish he couldn't stand to get rid of the ball without trying to do everything himself and turned the ball over both times at the end of the game.

    Damn
  • burgerburger Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    And now the CS North/Cal Irvine completely dies...

    100 points in first 25 minutes.
    8 points in the next 8.5 minutes.

    You just can't make this stuff up.
    Unbelievable.
  • burgerburger Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    OMG...
    and now the Idaho St game after a 48 point 1H is going OVER as well...


    Edward you need to go see a voodoo priest and get this jinx sweared off of you.

    You are snakebit.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited January 2011
    Double T on Idaho St with a minute left and 10 pt cushion. Sick shit.
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    It's hard to stomach all these bad beats on totals lately. We don't need good luck we just need the bad luck to go away. Sucks being on the right side and coming out losers in 4 games the last 2 nights.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited January 2011
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Double T on Idaho St with a minute left and 10 pt cushion. Sick shit.

    Sorry, it was a triple T, 6 free throws. Don't think I have ever seen that.
  • burgerburger Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    You need to step out with a slice of chocolate for a night if you know what I mean...
  • EscootEscoot Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    burger wrote: »
    OMG...
    and now the Idaho St game after a 48 point 1H is going OVER as well...

    69 free throw attempts...Anyone know whats average for a college basketball game
  • CraigRASCraigRAS Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Escoot wrote: »
    69 free throw attempts...Anyone know whats average for a college basketball game

    About 41... this season only, about 42.
  • AlpineAlpine Junior Member
    edited January 2011
    More consecutive 'bad beats' (in the truest sense of the word) than I've ever experienced before. I don't know that the 'variance' concept does this justice. Almost surreal.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2011
    Woohoo, a misery loves company thread, sorry I'm late boys!

    Needless to say, I've been my losing my ass the past 2 weeks or so, think I'm on about a 25u downswing.

    For better or worse, after doing this for a decade, it's not the first time, and unless I retire soon, it won't be the last.

    This is where I could make some logical, mathematical comments about variance like I normally do, but screw that, I'm pretty miserable at the moment. Even though I've been through it all, I still handle these streaks pretty poorly. It's just how I'm wired, I'm aware of it, so I do the best I can. They never prevent me from continuing to fire in what I consider +EV bets (like RAS releases) or using sound money management though. So react however you're wired to react, if you can take it in stride (probably easier if you're not a pro and/or have better coping skills than I) that's great and certainly healthier than how I react, but just make sure you don't let it get in the way of using sound betting strategies (i.e. proper bet sizing, not overreacting to short-term results, etc.).

    I'm not sure if that was helpful to others or I was just venting, but it is what it is. Here's hoping the bleeding stops sooner rather than later! :toast:
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    To add to the misery, the local online site I have used for 2 years and always been able to get the right line for RAS on and for big limits is now screwing me. Starting about 3 days ago, now whenever I put in a bet (any bet) there is about a 45 second delay while it is "processing the wager". Of course when the delay is over, it comes back and tells me the line has moved. I called my agent yesterday to bitch about it and he said they now have software for "wiseguy plays" which RAS and about 4 other services fit under and any players who play those plays get a 45 second delay now. So to add to all the bad beats of the last few weeks, now I am stuck trying to find a new out in the middle of basketball season that I can A. Get the right line on and B. Have large limits on totals.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited January 2011
    Is calling in an option?
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    sparkyl2 wrote: »
    To add to the misery, the local online site I have used for 2 years and always been able to get the right line for RAS on and for big limits is now screwing me. Starting about 3 days ago, now whenever I put in a bet (any bet) there is about a 45 second delay while it is "processing the wager". Of course when the delay is over, it comes back and tells me the line has moved. I called my agent yesterday to bitch about it and he said they now have software for "wiseguy plays" which RAS and about 4 other services fit under and any players who play those plays get a 45 second delay now. So to add to all the bad beats of the last few weeks, now I am stuck trying to find a new out in the middle of basketball season that I can A. Get the right line on and B. Have large limits on totals.


    same exact thing happened to me. Does your website start with "betc"?
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Yeah the site has a phone service that is in Costa Rica or wherever. I'm gonna try that today (if there are any releases) and see if it will work. Just frustrating to have the rug pulled out from under you in the middle of basketball season.
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    No. This is one of those local offshore books. I bet it is the same shell website though. I have 3 accounts with different guys. All of their websites have different names but it is all the exact same shell.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2011
    FWIW, I'm on a delay at almost every book I use, seems to be industry standard these days.
  • MustangMustang Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Same crap happened to me with my local - we even had an arrangement as long as I bet an equal $ amount on other games as I do on RAS plays he was good with it. That is until I get the processing wager screen - so its basically a fruitless exercise since I can never get the line. The agent basically said they were doing that to all people who bet the RAS plays.
  • sparkyl2sparkyl2 Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Without divulging all of your secrets, any advice as to how you still beat the line move on a delay?
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    I got ya. Well we might be set up with the same group because this all happened to me this week as well.

    I'm obviously pissed because anyone that can get down more on totals, than through typical sources, is betting more on totals than sides, and are losers this year on RAS plays. Therefore, I'm down with them and don't have a chance to continue to bet under the same "rules" as when I was getting my brains beat in. And what makes it even sicker is, they knew when they took me on that I played service plays, RAS particularly, and they said they would take any and all action regardless of the source as long as I was giving them a range of action on other stuff.

    This is probably very typical of "locals" but has still found a way to get me pissed. I'm already on a timer with half my online sites, had reduced limits on some, and got cut off by another local earlier this year when RAS was up 25ish units and the guy was tired of buying me a new car every week.

    /rant finish
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2011
    sparkyl2 wrote: »
    Without divulging all of your secrets, any advice as to how you still beat the line move on a delay?

    In most cases, you don't. Not trying to be an ass or cryptic; that's the truth. In my experience, it varies by site, and trial and error is all I can recommend. There have been sites where I can/could get my bet in if I was quick enough even with the delay (mind you it wasn't a 45 second delay, probably more like 15), but in general, the delay often means "game over" and you have to try to find another out.
  • babaorileybabaoriley Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Goats wrote: »
    FWIW, I'm on a delay at almost every book I use, seems to be industry standard these days.

    I've been talking to several people and we're all experiencing the same thing. Trying to get my local to accept NCAABB action as his lines are not dynamic at all, but I don't think he gets enough volume on Hoops to make it worthwhile. I also think that about 3-4 winning days would result in me being cut off...

    The phoning in process on some of these sites is the same. They have your account flagged if you use RAS, it seems, and you get the phone equivalent of a 45 second delay on the phone as the lines reflect the releases & subsequent new lines.
  • BomberBomber Member
    edited January 2011
    thanks for all your input.. years ago doctor bobs players were getting cut off left and right..ironically he cooled off at the peak of the delays and cut offs..when he got hot the winners werent very close..when edward gets hot i think very little plays will matter on a missed 1st move.1 to 1 and a hook. all goes back to what goats said MONEY MANAGEMENT is the key to making money at 55 % and losing money at a higher % over years are even a season. edward is the best ive seen in over 40 years.youll win with him with or without the line movements.. just my opinon
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    Bomber wrote: »
    youll win with him with or without the line movements.

    Here are the results from last year with the game time line:

    OVERALL 244-208 53.98% +15.5 units
    Sides 128-122 51.20% -5.9 units
    Totals 116-86 57.43% +21.4 units

    +15.5 units instead of +61.10

    So you are right, last year it was a winner regardless of release line or game time line, but that's a 46 units difference in results.
  • dsgatordsgator Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    I want to know how many people get the best line for the whole year? Or whats the best percentage to get the opening line on every game? That is such a huge difference in units and I think right now if you didnt get the best line with ras line you would be down around 8 units on the season. Also, do you guys factor in any of these sites that give rewards points where maybe you can get $2,000 cash at the end of ncaab season since you bet so many ncaa games with ed's cards? I'm curious how the math guys would factor that into the equation at the end of the season.
  • AlpineAlpine Junior Member
    edited January 2011
    dsgator wrote: »
    I want to know how many people get the best line for the whole year? Or whats the best percentage to get the opening line on every game? That is such a huge difference in units and I think right now if you didnt get the best line with ras line you would be down around 8 units on the season. Also, do you guys factor in any of these sites that give rewards points where maybe you can get $2,000 cash at the end of ncaab season since you bet so many ncaa games with ed's cards? I'm curious how the math guys would factor that into the equation at the end of the season.

    The obvious key ingredients are: fast internet, two monitors (larger the better), fast fingers, shrinking down the text size on your browser so you can fit more games on the screen, and setting up the auto-fill function so it's just a matter of clicking the mouse, typing bet amount (Ctrl+V), then hitting enter twice.

    As we've all learned this year, even having the above does not guarantee success anymore. The most important factor is having a local or number of locals with slow PPH sites. Like the poster above, I've also been put on delay by one local's PPH service, which has made it worthless as an out. It's a shame too, as they were the slowest. The day RAS went 7-0, they were totally asleep at the wheel, leaving all the original lines up for a solid 30 minutes after release. Luckily I do have one local left who has a PPH site I can beat, but even a slight miskey or taking an extra 2 seconds finding the game will make me miss the number about 1 out of every 10 attempts. The manager at the PPH site has told my local about me, but the local is ok with it for now since I've been paying him so much money lately. If the worm turns (please, god, if you are listening) and things take a turn for the better, I'll be curious to see if he lets me keep doing my thing or if he cuts me off.
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