Betting Talk

Is anyone taking the Chiefs this weekend?

utixutix Banned
edited January 2011 in Sports Betting
Can you give me some insight into why? I'm finding it hard to believe in this team

thanks in advance, hoping to find a decent conversation about this game
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Comments

  • dsgatordsgator Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Nope not a chance. The Ravens strength is there run defense and the Chiefs have to get the ground game going to open up the pass. I look for Baltimore to win that battle and also saw earlier that 4 of the Ravens 5 losses this season came against Pitt, New England, Atlanta, and some other great playoff team can't think of them off the top of my head. They also beat Jets, Saints, Steelers and 1 other playoff team so i would say this Baltimore team is going to win by 10. Look for Baltimore to use a lot of play action schemes this weekend and Flacco has been dead on with this attack! Goodluck but i really don't see the Chiefs winning this game just a bad matchup for them!
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Utix, waiting until right before kickoff
    If I can get 3 1/2, I will play
    Arrowhead Stadium is Magic!!!
    Best
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    anyone have some more thoughts on why they are taking the Chiefs?
  • BookiefitsBookiefits Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Ummm... the Chiefs D is not too bad either...

    1 San Diego 271.5 93.8 3.71 177.8 73.67 47 33.7 26:57 20.1
    2 Pittsburgh 276.8 62.8 3.02 214.1 70.84 48 33.5 28:34 14.5
    3 N.Y. Jets 291.4 90.9 3.56 200.6 75.13 40 37.0 28:26 19.0
    4 New Orleans 306.2 112.3 4.27 193.9 81.06 33 34.5 28:44 19.2
    5 Green Bay 309.1 114.9 4.65 194.2 64.60 47 36.2 28:47 15.0
    6 Miami 309.3 100.1 3.58 209.2 83.16 39 37.2 29:29 20.8
    7 N.Y. Giants 310.8 101.4 4.18 209.3 78.07 47 31.7 27:28 21.7
    8 Minnesota 312.6 102.2 3.92 210.4 85.00 31 40.8 29:55 21.8
    9 Chicago 314.3 90.1 3.73 224.2 72.73 34 34.7 30:29 17.9
    10 Baltimore 318.9 93.9 3.91 224.9 75.06 27 38.0 29:56 16.9
    11 Oakland 322.9 133.6 4.51 189.2 83.01 47 34.9 28:58 23.2
    12 Philadelphia 326.8 109.8 4.14 216.9 78.36 38 38.3 28:45 23.6
    13 San Francisco 327.8 96.7 3.46 231.1 88.12 36 38.7 31:33 21.6
    14 Kansas City 330.2 110.2 4.32 219.9 76.23 39 37.7 30:14 20.4

    And please don't forget the Chiefs played San Diego twice (#1 offense), the Texans and the Colts.
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    Bookiefits wrote: »
    Ummm... the Chiefs D is not too bad either...

    I guess that depends on what you think about their schedule. Playing 1 team with a winning record tends to help out the defensive stats
  • BookiefitsBookiefits Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    utix wrote: »
    I guess that depends on what you think about their schedule. Playing 1 team with a winning record tends to help out the defensive stats

    And they have the #12 offense. You wont catch me playing a public road favorite in one of the most difficult venues in the league.

    #1 rushing offense?

    Nothing to see there.
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    Once again, #12 offense against the worst schedule in the NFL.

    I'm not hammering anything, this play or another, but everything that Chiefs backers use to justify the play always goes back to good stats against poor opponents
  • BookiefitsBookiefits Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Good points utix. Vast difference in schedules. Still now way I lay the points on the road in Arrowhead against a vastly improved KC team.
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    95% of the time I'm with you on this theory. It's a recipe for disaster. Only thing that would be worse would be reverse line movement, but the line has followed the bets here.

    I might just have my blinders on with this one.
  • BookiefitsBookiefits Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Found this bit of info. I'm not a stats guy by any means, I usually let the lines work for me.

    Our opener today is tough but I'll lean slighty to Kansas City. The Chiefs were 7-0 at Arrowhead this year until a meaningless game against Oakland last Sunday. Matt Cassel has a 27-7 ratio of touchdowns to picks to compliment the #1 rushing attack in the league. The defense allowed just 14.7 points per game at home this year. Meanwhile in their last two games the lackluster Baltimore offense under Joe Flacco produced 97 yards passing and 20 points at Cleveland plus 101 passing yards and 13 points at home to Cincinnati. I just don't trust the Ravens as a road favorite. The Kansas City defense was shredded last Sunday by Oakland without Darren McFadden but many of the regulars weren't in the lineup. In the last two years the Ravens are 1-8 ATS facing quality opponents that have won between 60 and 75 percent of their games. I'm a little puzzled by this number too. The Ravens have road wins at Pittsburgh and against the Jets. They lost at New England in overtime and beat the Saints. Yet they are only a field goal favorite against the Chiefs who haven't won a playoff game since 1993? Among Baltimore's five road wins this year, two were by a field goal and another by six in overtime. KC has some history on their side however. Home playoff teams in the post-season opener that have won 60 percent or more of their games and play off a home loss in the regular season finale are at incredible 15-1 SU, 13-3 ATS since 1980.
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Betting Ravens but would prefer to see KC come to Pgh. next week
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    "Only a field goal" doesn't really make any sense. That would make them a 9pt fav at home.
  • lentellentel Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Does anyone like Baltimore more on the moneyline -170?
  • BigABigA Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    interesting stat I found...

    Teams coming off a loss of 17-plus points in Week 17 (without resting their starters) are 0-5 against the spread in their first playoff game since 2002. One of those squads was the 2009 Eagles. Like this year's Chiefs, those Eagles made it to the postseason without beating a single team in the playoffs.
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Big perm likess the indians
  • SanManSanMan Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Let me see. A team that did not beat a playoff team this year versus a team that not only beat playoff teams, but only had 4 losses and three of them were to teams that have a bye the first week of the playoffs. I like the Ravens.
  • lentellentel Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    SanMan wrote: »
    Let me see. A team that did not beat a playoff team this year versus a team that not only beat playoff teams, but only had 4 losses and three of them were to teams that have a bye the first week of the playoffs. I like the Ravens.

    thatss what I was thinking but a lot of people like the chiefs so I am starting to doubt myself on this
  • SanManSanMan Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    lentel wrote: »
    thatss what I was thinking but a lot of people like the chiefs so I am starting to doubt myself on this

    You and me both. I just don't see how people see it that way and that usually bites me in the ass!
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    KC is awful. They compiled good stats against poor teams and got dominated today by an above average team.....at home.
  • BookiefitsBookiefits Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Good call Utix. KC was out of their league in that game.
  • utixutix Banned
    edited January 2011
    Bookiefits wrote: »
    Good call Utix. KC was out of their league in that game.

    thank you sir, possibly luck since when posting my own plays I did horribly
  • BookiefitsBookiefits Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Cassell definitely has a lot of growing to still do come playoff time. Granted the Balt D is the best, but there were plenty of horrible decisions he made.
  • dsgatordsgator Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Good call utix? What about good call gator? I nailed that game right on the head and i was the first one in the thread to post that. Called the game exactly how it would go with the play action passing and flacco did a ton of it. I'll just give myself a pat on the back or i will just enjoy my $122 ticket that i cashed!
  • LawboyLawboy Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    dsgator wrote: »
    Good call utix? What about good call gator? I nailed that game right on the head and i was the first one in the thread to post that. Called the game exactly how it would go with the play action passing and flacco did a ton of it. I'll just give myself a pat on the back or i will just enjoy my $122 ticket that i cashed!

    Good call Utix
  • lentellentel Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    wow the ravens defense unziped and urinated in the chiefs faces. Chiefs were lucky to score at all.
  • dsgatordsgator Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Good call Utix? He was the one who posted this thread looking for insight to the game and i nailed it right on the head. I had that game playing out EXACTLY how it did. For you not to give me any credit and give it all to utix is very biased.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited January 2011
    I took the Chiefs today, that worked out well. I also took them to win the SB though.....think I have lost 15 of my last 20, good run to say the least.
  • bobbyputnambobbyputnam Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    horn wrote: »
    I took the Chiefs today, that worked out well. I also took them to win the SB though.....think I have lost 15 of my last 20, good run to say the least.

    join the club on your streak
  • BookiefitsBookiefits Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    dsgator wrote: »
    Good call Utix? He was the one who posted this thread looking for insight to the game and i nailed it right on the head. I had that game playing out EXACTLY how it did. For you not to give me any credit and give it all to utix is very biased.

    Great job dsgator.
  • dsgatordsgator Senior Member
    edited January 2011
    Thanks buddy it nice to get a little confidence boost every now and again especially when you call exactly how the game played out. It just urked me a little because Utix was the one posting looking for help and i game my opinion and nailed it head on and then people run and give all the credit 2 utix. O well.
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