Betting Talk

Handicapping Trends and Stats

BennieBennie Senior Member
edited September 2004 in Sports Betting
While I have no opinion on tonights game I thought I would share this info
with the board. I have found over the years that NFL teams with better
than average defenses and receiveing 3 or more points will get the cover
80 percent of the time at home or away. Look at these games yesterday for
example: Jacksonville + 3 Chicago + 8 NY Giants + 3 Carolina + 6 Buffalo +
3.5 and Miami + 4.5 something to consider when making your
bets.

Comments

  • GinoCimoliGinoCimoli Member
    edited September 2004
    Bennie,
    I agree with your assessment, the 80% figure seems a little high.

    The question I have is how do you determine what an "above-average"
    defense is? I'm not sure I would call NY Giants an above-average defense.

    I know you have been very successful, I was curious if you had a yardstick
    on how you measure what a good defense is.

    I enjoy your contributions to this board, always fun to talk handicapping.
  • BennieBennie Senior Member
    edited September 2004
    I knew someone would question me and you are smart to do so. Now I have a
    question for you do you agree that the Giants defense is much improved
    under Tom Coughlin we will find out as the season goes along.
  • ASAPASAP Senior Member
    edited September 2004
    The Giannts won b/c the Skins turned the ball over one million times but I
    appreciate the stat and will look into it. Thanks
  • BennieBennie Senior Member
    edited September 2004
    It has been my experience that defenses cause most turnovers but I could
    be wrong.
  • GinoCimoliGinoCimoli Member
    edited September 2004
    Bennie,
    I agree that good defenses cause turnovers. However, so do bad
    quaterbacks!

    The Giants defense will improve as the year goes by, partially due to
    Coughlin and partially due to the six new starters in the front seven will
    have better cohesion through experience playing together.

    I was mainly curious how you rated what a good defense is.
  • BennieBennie Senior Member
    edited September 2004
    I am sorry Gino I had to run out just got back. I used to rely mostly on
    statistical data to help me determine the quality of offenses and defenses
    but with free agency and many teams turning over up to as high as 20% of
    their staff and players each year you almost have to do individual
    assesment of players and coaches. I firmly believe that defense starts
    with discipline from the coaching staff and filters down to the players.
    Tom Coughlin is a very disciplined coach who will demand discipline from
    his coaches and players which is why they were able to hold Washington to
    14 points yesterday in Washington. In other words good defenses bend but
    don't break.
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