Wizard. You Fuckers forgot about me?
clueless
Banned
Kiss My ASS!!!!!!
Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, June 18th, 2005
Belmont Park Race 9 - OGDEN PHIPPS H.
Belmont Park Race 9 - OGDEN PHIPPS H. 1 1/16m Grade I 3yo and up Fillies
and Mares , Purse: $300,000. Post Time: 5:15 ET
Race Synopsis
A tepid pace is expected in this compact field that lacks a true front
runner. Ashado went to the in her last start under a similar scenario and
will probably be the pacesetter again today from her rail post. I expect
the entire field to be within a few lengths of eachother down the
backstretch, with the real running taking place in the final 3 furlongs.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 ASHADO 8/5
2 BENDING STRINGS 6/1
3 SOCIETY SELECTION 9/5
4 DAYDREAMING 3/1
5 BOARD ELLIGIBLE 20/1
First Selection: (3) SOCIETY SELECTION (Jerkens H Allen/Coa E M)
This filly showed class early on, winning her first two starts at age 2,
including a graded stakes race over this track. It took her a while to
find her top form last year at age 3, but when she did she proved to be a
top class horse, winning two Grade 1 races in a three week span at
Saratoga. She used her powerful late kick to win those races at 7 furlongs
and at 10 furlongs, showing tremendous versatility to go along with her
class. Society Selection began her 4yo campaign Feb 19, but she stumbled
at the start and hurt herself, so the race was a toss out. She came back
three months later, and despite not being 100% fit she still posted a
dominant win in the G2 Shuvee over this track. Stalking a fast pace that
day, she made her move into the stretch, led at the furlong pole, and drew
off while getting her final quarter mile in a very fast :24-2/5. She also
raced at least 3 wide all the way that day. If that race is looked upon at
a 'prep' for this Grade 1 affair, then it was a darn good one, and if she
moves forward today as I think she will, then a big performance is
forthcoming. Eibar Coa rode her for the first time that day and remains
aboard for this race.
Second Selection: (1) ASHADO (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Last year's champion 3yo filly was short on conditioning in her 4yo debut
April 9, and trainer Todd Pletcher has blamed himself for that. She was in
position to win the G1 Apple Blossom, but simply ran out of gas in the
final furlong. She was fitter for the G3 Pimilico Distaff on May 20 and
led to deep stretch, only to be caught by a filly who had a home track
advantage. Ashado may not have cared for the slow, sloppy going over an
unfamiliar track, so the 2nd place finish wasn't bad at all. She should be
even fitter now off of those two efforts as she makes her third start off
the layoff, and there's no questioning her class or her ability to get
this distance. She'll probably go to the lead from her inside post, and
she's been training exceptionally well over this track since her last
race. Expect her to return to her top form today and give Society
Selection a battle down the stretch.
Third Selection: (4) DAYDREAMING (Mcgaughey Claude Iii/Castellano J J)
Although she's a 3-time graded stakes winner, Daydreaming seems to be just
a cut below the top two in terms of class, having never won a Grade 1
event. She ran her race in the Shuvee, but proved no match for Society
Selection in the late going, and today's added half furlong figures to
benefit that rival more than it does Daydreaming. Nonetheless, she's won 3
of 4 prior starts at this distance, and if the top two choices don't fire
their "A" races, then she has a chance to win.
Wagering Strategy
For the NTRA Pick 4 I have laid out three suggested tickets. If you wish
to invest less in this wager, I'd suggest using just the first two. If you
want to invest even less than that, then just use Ticket 1.
A win bet on (3)SOCIETY SELECTION
Exacta 3-1, reverse for half as much
Begin the NTRA National Pick 4, with three tickets as follows:
Ticket 1: 1-3 / 1-2-4 / 3-4 / 1-5-7-8 = $48 for a $1 wager
Ticket 2: 3 / 1-2-4-7 / 3 / ALL = $32 for a $1 wager
Ticket 3: 1-3 / 2 / 3-4 / 7-8 = $8 for a $1 wager
Churchill Downs Race 9 - FLEUR DE LIS H.
Churchill Downs Race 9 - FLEUR DE LIS H. 1 1/8m Grade II 3yo and up
Fillies and Mares , Purse: $300,000. Post Time: 5:33 ET
Race Synopsis
The pace in the Fleur De Lis Handicap figures to be a brisk one with Freei
jumping out to the front with several taking up stalking positions. She
will try to take this field wire to wire, but will have to overcome stiff
pressure on the turn. Late closing Shadow Cast figures to be the
beneficiary of the lively fractions and the long Churchill Downs stretch.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 TWO TRAIL SIOUX 4/1
2 SHADOW CAST 3/1
3 QUICK TEMPER 15/1
4 ISLAND SAND 7/2
5 FREEI 12/1
6 RARE GIFT 4/1
7 STORM'S DARLING 10/1
8 LA REASON 6/1
First Selection: (2) SHADOW CAST (Howard Neil J/Albarado R J)
The horse most suited to today's 1 1/8 mile distance appears to be Shadow
Cast who finds herself in a good spot once again. She has been a gem of
consistency in all five starts this year, with 4 wins and a good third
place finish. 2 of those victories have come in Graded stakes. With
several speed horses lined up in this stakes race, Shadow Cast figures to
be closing best late with regular rider Albarado saving ground early on
from her good inside post. Albarado has been aboard Shadow Cast in 7 of
her 8 career wins. Since her win in a Grade 2 stake 43 days ago, Shadow
Cast has 5 solid works in preparation for the Fleur De Lis Handicap. She
has run twice over the Churchill Downs strip, winning both times.
Second Selection: (1) TWO TRAIL SIOUX (Dollase Wallace/Day P)
She was actually more heavily bet than Shadow Cast when the 2 met on May 6
in the Grade 2 Louisville Handicap. Two Trail Sioux was making her first
start at Churchill following 5 straight wins, all of them stretching out
to 2 turns. She had shown steady improvement as she worked her way up the
class ladder as well as flashing excellant tactical speed. Unfortunatly
she hopped at the start in her last outing, losing all foward position.
Two Trail Sioux performs best on or near the lead. Once she found herself
further off the pace then she likes to be, as well as steadying a few
times during the race, she was unable to launch any kind of rally. In the
Fleur De Lis, she will be ridden for the first time by Pat Day. She draws
the advantageous rail post. With her fine early speed, expect Day to rate
her right behind the main speed Freei and make her move on the far turn.
She will no doubt get first run on Shadow Cast. The main question is if
she can find enough energy in the final 1/16th to hold off that filly's
late charge. Two Trail Sioux shows 5 strong workouts in preparation for
this Grade 2 stake for top trainer Wally Dollase.
Third Selection: (4) ISLAND SAND (Jones J Larry/Smith M E)
Island Sand is still looking for her first win in 2005 even though she has
run well in all 4 outings. Her claim to fame was her victory in last
year's Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont at a one turn mile. Island Sand
comes off a solid 2nd place finish to Shadow Cast on May 6 after being
fractious loading into the gate and sustaining a strong wide rally from a
tough outside post. She also made a strong middle move into the fastest
part of the pace and continued on well to the wire. She draws a better
post on Saturday and with a more alert start, Island Sand should be in
good striking position from the otuset. She has yet to win at the 1 1/8
mile distance, but her solid 2nd place finish as a 3 year old, behind last
year's champion filly Ashado, in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks indicates she
should be able to win at this distance.
Wagering Strategy
Since Shadow Cast figures to be the favorite at underlaid odds, I would
rather concentrate on exactas and a trifectas.
Exactas: 2-1, 2-4, reverse each for a smaller amount as a saver.
Trifecta: 2 over 1-4 over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager.
Trifecta: 1 over 2-4 over ALL = $12 for a $1 wager.
Churchill Downs Race 10 - STEPHEN FOSTER H.
Churchill Downs Race 10 - STEPHEN FOSTER H. 1 1/8m Grade I 3yo and up,
Purse: $750,000. Post Time: 6:05 ET
Race Synopsis
Presidentialaffair will shoot out to the front with Badge Of Silver and
Saint Liam taking up the chase. The pacesetter will take intense pressure
midway on the far turn and figures to succumb to 2 more classy rivals. The
pace figures to be quick as well as all the fractions in this 1-1/8 mile
Grade 1 stake.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 GOULDINGS GREEN 20/1
2 M B SEA 20/1
3 SAINT LIAM 8/5
4 BADGE OF SILVER 9/5
5 PRESIDENTIALAFFAIR 5/1
6 COLONIAL COLONY 20/1
7 PERFECT DRIFT 4/1
8 EUROSILVER 12/1
First Selection: (3) SAINT LIAM (Frankel Robert J/Prado E S)
Saint Liam makes his first start for trainer Bobby Frankel switching from
the barn of Richard Dutrow Jr. who is currently serving a suspension.
First time Frankel is always a deadly angle. Saint Liam has been pointed
for the Grade 1 Stephen Foster after dissapointing as the 6-5 favorite in
the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap. He was forced to chase a fast pace while
hung out wide all the way from a tough outside post. In addition I felt he
was rushed back on too short a rest after a hard fought win one month
earlier. Saint Liam has proven to do his best running off layoffs of 2
months or more. On Saturday he returns off more than 3 months rest. He has
superb tactical speed and a good inside post under regular rider Edgar
Prado. Saint Liam likes the 1 1/8 mile distance, as well as the Churchill
Downs strip, having won an allowance race early in his career and a Gr 2
victory last November in the Clark Handicap. With last year's horse of the
year Ghostzapper recently retired, the handicap ranks is in need of a new
leader. Saint Liam could be set to fill the bill for the Ghostzappers
trainer Bobby Frankel.
Second Selection: (4) BADGE OF SILVER (Frankel Robert J/Bailey J D)
Runs as an uncoupled barn mate of Saint Liam for the Frankel barn. Badge
Of Silver has been ultra sharp and consistent in his last 5 starts
switching barns to Frankel. In those 5 outings, he has 2 wins in graded
stakes as well as 3 second place finishes. Badge Of Silver likes the front
end, but he has proven he can win sitting back in 2nd or 3rd position,
stalking tactics which are expected Saturday with speedball
Presidentialaffair in the race. Both him and Saint Liam figure to be
racing close to one an other so it will probably come down to who is the
better horse in the late stages. Badge Of Silver has never run at
Churchill, but has peoven he can win at various racetracks. Regular rider
Jerry Bailey is back aboard. Bailey is an excellant judge of pace, which
will be important on when to attack the main speed.
Third Selection: (7) PERFECT DRIFT (Johnson Murray W/Stevens G L)
Has been a gem of consistency throughout his career despite having trouble
hitting the winners circle. Perfect Drift goes grass to dirt in the Foster
which is clearly his best surface. He was a solid 3rd last year behind
Saint Liam in the Clark Handicap after chasing the pace throughout. He
prefers to take back and make one run, tactics which are expected
Saturday. 1 1/8 miles is his best distance. Rider Gary Stevens got to know
him in his last 2 grass starts and will once again be aboard switching
back to the dirt. Perfect Drift will get the necessary quick pace to close
into. Even though I do not like him to win the Foster because of his
avergance to winning, Perfect Drift must be used in exotics because of the
perfect pace set up he will get.
Wagering Strategy
A win bet on (3)SAINT LIAM
Exactas: 3-4, 3-7, NO REVERSE.
Trifecta: 3 over 4-7 over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager
Trifecta: 4 over 3-7 over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager
Hollywood Park Race 5 - CALIFORNIAN S.
Hollywood Park Race 5 - CALIFORNIAN S. 1 1/8m Grade II 3yo and up, Purse:
$250,000. Post Time: 6:37 ET
Race Synopsis
The final leg in the NTRA Pick 4 appears to be the most wide open one.
This traditional prep for the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup can be won by any of
the eight entrants, and many of them bring similar current form and
running styles into this race. Keep On Punching is the probable
pacesetter, with Ace Blue, Molengao, Lava Man, and Anziyan Royalty all
figuring to be stalking fairly close up. Skukuza, Borrego, and Choctaw
Nation come from off the pace, and this is anyone's race, with the victor
probably being the one who works out the cleanest trip.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 ACE BLUE 7/2
2 SKUKUZA 20/1
3 KEEP ON PUNCHING 9/2
4 MOLENGAO 8/1
5 BORREGO 3/1
6 LAVA MAN 8/1
7 ANZIYAN ROYALTY 12/1
8 CHOCTAW NATION 5/2
First Selection: (7) ANZIYAN ROYALTY (Dollase Craig/Nakatani C S)
This horse for course won his first four career starts over this track,
including a very fast renewal of the On Trust Handicap to end his 4yo
campaign last November 13. He returned from a 5-month layoff this spring
and clearly needed his April 24 race. He finished 4th that day, but ran
better than appears, as he was sitting close to a mercurial pace before
falling back a bit and racing evenly in the stretch. He stepped it up
quite a bit when returning May 14 in the G2 Mervyn LeRoy, and although he
lost by 1-3/4 lengths, he would have had a chance to win with a better
trip. He stalked the two leaders, but was trapped down along the rail
through the stretch when Borrego came up outside and kept him hemmed in.
If Anziyan Royalty had gotten a chance to get outside I believe he would
have had a chance to catch the top two finishers. That makes his close 4th
place finish a 'sneaky good' effort, and sets him up very nicely for his
third start off the layoff. Craig Dollase makes a rider change today to
his brother in law, Corey Nakatani, who he uses for most of his top
horses. With excellent early speed I expect Anziyan Royalty to sit just
off the pace, making his move ahead of most of his rivals. If Nakatani can
keep him free ane clear in the lane, then he has a chance to pull off the
win at a square price.
Second Selection: (8) CHOCTAW NATION (Mullins Jeff/Espinoza V)
Since winning the first five starts of his career this gelding has lost
three in a row, but note that those wins were all against G1 or G2
company, and he ran well in each instance. His most recent effort was
particularly good, finishing 3rd in the $6 million Dubai World Cup behind
Roses In May, who would be heavily favored if in this field. Choctaw
Nation has been away for 3 months since then, but he's always fired when
fresh in the past, and he should get an honest or fast pace to rally into.
He has an outstanding late kick and also sheds 10 lbs. off his World Cup
effort. The belief here is that while he's certainly good enough to win,
he may be using this race more as a prep for the Gold Cup next month.
Third Selection: (5) BORREGO (Greely C Beau/Gomez G K)
Although he's won almost $700,000, this colt has yet to win a stakes race.
It's not for lack of ability, as he's hit the board in five G2 races, but
he just always seems to find someone to beat him. If the Mervyn LeRoy was
at today's distance he might have won, but his outside rally fell a neck
short at that 1-1/16 mile distance. Today's 1-1/8 trip should be more to
his liking, and he shows four more works in the interim.
Fourth Selection: (1) ACE BLUE (Hollendorfer Jerry/Flores D R)
Streaking 5yo has won three in a row, including a very game score in the
Mervyn LeRoy here May 14. His pace pressing style should have him involved
from the start today, but he had to work very hard to win last time out,
and it's not a stretch to think that he might 'bounce' off that hard race.
He's also making his first start for his new owners and trainer off a
private purchase, and sometimes horses need a little time to re-acclimate
to the new stall, new training regimine, etc. He's an up and comer in the
handicap ranks, but this may not be his best chance for a win.
Wagering Strategy
We should get a fair price on our top horse in this open betting race, and
the exotics also should pay well if we can hit them.
A win and place bet on (7)ANZIYAN ROYALTY
Exacta box 5-7-8 = $12 for a $2 wager
Trifecta: 7 over 1-5-8 over ALL = $18 for a $1 wager
Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, June 18th, 2005
Belmont Park Race 9 - OGDEN PHIPPS H.
Belmont Park Race 9 - OGDEN PHIPPS H. 1 1/16m Grade I 3yo and up Fillies
and Mares , Purse: $300,000. Post Time: 5:15 ET
Race Synopsis
A tepid pace is expected in this compact field that lacks a true front
runner. Ashado went to the in her last start under a similar scenario and
will probably be the pacesetter again today from her rail post. I expect
the entire field to be within a few lengths of eachother down the
backstretch, with the real running taking place in the final 3 furlongs.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 ASHADO 8/5
2 BENDING STRINGS 6/1
3 SOCIETY SELECTION 9/5
4 DAYDREAMING 3/1
5 BOARD ELLIGIBLE 20/1
First Selection: (3) SOCIETY SELECTION (Jerkens H Allen/Coa E M)
This filly showed class early on, winning her first two starts at age 2,
including a graded stakes race over this track. It took her a while to
find her top form last year at age 3, but when she did she proved to be a
top class horse, winning two Grade 1 races in a three week span at
Saratoga. She used her powerful late kick to win those races at 7 furlongs
and at 10 furlongs, showing tremendous versatility to go along with her
class. Society Selection began her 4yo campaign Feb 19, but she stumbled
at the start and hurt herself, so the race was a toss out. She came back
three months later, and despite not being 100% fit she still posted a
dominant win in the G2 Shuvee over this track. Stalking a fast pace that
day, she made her move into the stretch, led at the furlong pole, and drew
off while getting her final quarter mile in a very fast :24-2/5. She also
raced at least 3 wide all the way that day. If that race is looked upon at
a 'prep' for this Grade 1 affair, then it was a darn good one, and if she
moves forward today as I think she will, then a big performance is
forthcoming. Eibar Coa rode her for the first time that day and remains
aboard for this race.
Second Selection: (1) ASHADO (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Last year's champion 3yo filly was short on conditioning in her 4yo debut
April 9, and trainer Todd Pletcher has blamed himself for that. She was in
position to win the G1 Apple Blossom, but simply ran out of gas in the
final furlong. She was fitter for the G3 Pimilico Distaff on May 20 and
led to deep stretch, only to be caught by a filly who had a home track
advantage. Ashado may not have cared for the slow, sloppy going over an
unfamiliar track, so the 2nd place finish wasn't bad at all. She should be
even fitter now off of those two efforts as she makes her third start off
the layoff, and there's no questioning her class or her ability to get
this distance. She'll probably go to the lead from her inside post, and
she's been training exceptionally well over this track since her last
race. Expect her to return to her top form today and give Society
Selection a battle down the stretch.
Third Selection: (4) DAYDREAMING (Mcgaughey Claude Iii/Castellano J J)
Although she's a 3-time graded stakes winner, Daydreaming seems to be just
a cut below the top two in terms of class, having never won a Grade 1
event. She ran her race in the Shuvee, but proved no match for Society
Selection in the late going, and today's added half furlong figures to
benefit that rival more than it does Daydreaming. Nonetheless, she's won 3
of 4 prior starts at this distance, and if the top two choices don't fire
their "A" races, then she has a chance to win.
Wagering Strategy
For the NTRA Pick 4 I have laid out three suggested tickets. If you wish
to invest less in this wager, I'd suggest using just the first two. If you
want to invest even less than that, then just use Ticket 1.
A win bet on (3)SOCIETY SELECTION
Exacta 3-1, reverse for half as much
Begin the NTRA National Pick 4, with three tickets as follows:
Ticket 1: 1-3 / 1-2-4 / 3-4 / 1-5-7-8 = $48 for a $1 wager
Ticket 2: 3 / 1-2-4-7 / 3 / ALL = $32 for a $1 wager
Ticket 3: 1-3 / 2 / 3-4 / 7-8 = $8 for a $1 wager
Churchill Downs Race 9 - FLEUR DE LIS H.
Churchill Downs Race 9 - FLEUR DE LIS H. 1 1/8m Grade II 3yo and up
Fillies and Mares , Purse: $300,000. Post Time: 5:33 ET
Race Synopsis
The pace in the Fleur De Lis Handicap figures to be a brisk one with Freei
jumping out to the front with several taking up stalking positions. She
will try to take this field wire to wire, but will have to overcome stiff
pressure on the turn. Late closing Shadow Cast figures to be the
beneficiary of the lively fractions and the long Churchill Downs stretch.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 TWO TRAIL SIOUX 4/1
2 SHADOW CAST 3/1
3 QUICK TEMPER 15/1
4 ISLAND SAND 7/2
5 FREEI 12/1
6 RARE GIFT 4/1
7 STORM'S DARLING 10/1
8 LA REASON 6/1
First Selection: (2) SHADOW CAST (Howard Neil J/Albarado R J)
The horse most suited to today's 1 1/8 mile distance appears to be Shadow
Cast who finds herself in a good spot once again. She has been a gem of
consistency in all five starts this year, with 4 wins and a good third
place finish. 2 of those victories have come in Graded stakes. With
several speed horses lined up in this stakes race, Shadow Cast figures to
be closing best late with regular rider Albarado saving ground early on
from her good inside post. Albarado has been aboard Shadow Cast in 7 of
her 8 career wins. Since her win in a Grade 2 stake 43 days ago, Shadow
Cast has 5 solid works in preparation for the Fleur De Lis Handicap. She
has run twice over the Churchill Downs strip, winning both times.
Second Selection: (1) TWO TRAIL SIOUX (Dollase Wallace/Day P)
She was actually more heavily bet than Shadow Cast when the 2 met on May 6
in the Grade 2 Louisville Handicap. Two Trail Sioux was making her first
start at Churchill following 5 straight wins, all of them stretching out
to 2 turns. She had shown steady improvement as she worked her way up the
class ladder as well as flashing excellant tactical speed. Unfortunatly
she hopped at the start in her last outing, losing all foward position.
Two Trail Sioux performs best on or near the lead. Once she found herself
further off the pace then she likes to be, as well as steadying a few
times during the race, she was unable to launch any kind of rally. In the
Fleur De Lis, she will be ridden for the first time by Pat Day. She draws
the advantageous rail post. With her fine early speed, expect Day to rate
her right behind the main speed Freei and make her move on the far turn.
She will no doubt get first run on Shadow Cast. The main question is if
she can find enough energy in the final 1/16th to hold off that filly's
late charge. Two Trail Sioux shows 5 strong workouts in preparation for
this Grade 2 stake for top trainer Wally Dollase.
Third Selection: (4) ISLAND SAND (Jones J Larry/Smith M E)
Island Sand is still looking for her first win in 2005 even though she has
run well in all 4 outings. Her claim to fame was her victory in last
year's Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont at a one turn mile. Island Sand
comes off a solid 2nd place finish to Shadow Cast on May 6 after being
fractious loading into the gate and sustaining a strong wide rally from a
tough outside post. She also made a strong middle move into the fastest
part of the pace and continued on well to the wire. She draws a better
post on Saturday and with a more alert start, Island Sand should be in
good striking position from the otuset. She has yet to win at the 1 1/8
mile distance, but her solid 2nd place finish as a 3 year old, behind last
year's champion filly Ashado, in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks indicates she
should be able to win at this distance.
Wagering Strategy
Since Shadow Cast figures to be the favorite at underlaid odds, I would
rather concentrate on exactas and a trifectas.
Exactas: 2-1, 2-4, reverse each for a smaller amount as a saver.
Trifecta: 2 over 1-4 over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager.
Trifecta: 1 over 2-4 over ALL = $12 for a $1 wager.
Churchill Downs Race 10 - STEPHEN FOSTER H.
Churchill Downs Race 10 - STEPHEN FOSTER H. 1 1/8m Grade I 3yo and up,
Purse: $750,000. Post Time: 6:05 ET
Race Synopsis
Presidentialaffair will shoot out to the front with Badge Of Silver and
Saint Liam taking up the chase. The pacesetter will take intense pressure
midway on the far turn and figures to succumb to 2 more classy rivals. The
pace figures to be quick as well as all the fractions in this 1-1/8 mile
Grade 1 stake.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 GOULDINGS GREEN 20/1
2 M B SEA 20/1
3 SAINT LIAM 8/5
4 BADGE OF SILVER 9/5
5 PRESIDENTIALAFFAIR 5/1
6 COLONIAL COLONY 20/1
7 PERFECT DRIFT 4/1
8 EUROSILVER 12/1
First Selection: (3) SAINT LIAM (Frankel Robert J/Prado E S)
Saint Liam makes his first start for trainer Bobby Frankel switching from
the barn of Richard Dutrow Jr. who is currently serving a suspension.
First time Frankel is always a deadly angle. Saint Liam has been pointed
for the Grade 1 Stephen Foster after dissapointing as the 6-5 favorite in
the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap. He was forced to chase a fast pace while
hung out wide all the way from a tough outside post. In addition I felt he
was rushed back on too short a rest after a hard fought win one month
earlier. Saint Liam has proven to do his best running off layoffs of 2
months or more. On Saturday he returns off more than 3 months rest. He has
superb tactical speed and a good inside post under regular rider Edgar
Prado. Saint Liam likes the 1 1/8 mile distance, as well as the Churchill
Downs strip, having won an allowance race early in his career and a Gr 2
victory last November in the Clark Handicap. With last year's horse of the
year Ghostzapper recently retired, the handicap ranks is in need of a new
leader. Saint Liam could be set to fill the bill for the Ghostzappers
trainer Bobby Frankel.
Second Selection: (4) BADGE OF SILVER (Frankel Robert J/Bailey J D)
Runs as an uncoupled barn mate of Saint Liam for the Frankel barn. Badge
Of Silver has been ultra sharp and consistent in his last 5 starts
switching barns to Frankel. In those 5 outings, he has 2 wins in graded
stakes as well as 3 second place finishes. Badge Of Silver likes the front
end, but he has proven he can win sitting back in 2nd or 3rd position,
stalking tactics which are expected Saturday with speedball
Presidentialaffair in the race. Both him and Saint Liam figure to be
racing close to one an other so it will probably come down to who is the
better horse in the late stages. Badge Of Silver has never run at
Churchill, but has peoven he can win at various racetracks. Regular rider
Jerry Bailey is back aboard. Bailey is an excellant judge of pace, which
will be important on when to attack the main speed.
Third Selection: (7) PERFECT DRIFT (Johnson Murray W/Stevens G L)
Has been a gem of consistency throughout his career despite having trouble
hitting the winners circle. Perfect Drift goes grass to dirt in the Foster
which is clearly his best surface. He was a solid 3rd last year behind
Saint Liam in the Clark Handicap after chasing the pace throughout. He
prefers to take back and make one run, tactics which are expected
Saturday. 1 1/8 miles is his best distance. Rider Gary Stevens got to know
him in his last 2 grass starts and will once again be aboard switching
back to the dirt. Perfect Drift will get the necessary quick pace to close
into. Even though I do not like him to win the Foster because of his
avergance to winning, Perfect Drift must be used in exotics because of the
perfect pace set up he will get.
Wagering Strategy
A win bet on (3)SAINT LIAM
Exactas: 3-4, 3-7, NO REVERSE.
Trifecta: 3 over 4-7 over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager
Trifecta: 4 over 3-7 over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager
Hollywood Park Race 5 - CALIFORNIAN S.
Hollywood Park Race 5 - CALIFORNIAN S. 1 1/8m Grade II 3yo and up, Purse:
$250,000. Post Time: 6:37 ET
Race Synopsis
The final leg in the NTRA Pick 4 appears to be the most wide open one.
This traditional prep for the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup can be won by any of
the eight entrants, and many of them bring similar current form and
running styles into this race. Keep On Punching is the probable
pacesetter, with Ace Blue, Molengao, Lava Man, and Anziyan Royalty all
figuring to be stalking fairly close up. Skukuza, Borrego, and Choctaw
Nation come from off the pace, and this is anyone's race, with the victor
probably being the one who works out the cleanest trip.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 ACE BLUE 7/2
2 SKUKUZA 20/1
3 KEEP ON PUNCHING 9/2
4 MOLENGAO 8/1
5 BORREGO 3/1
6 LAVA MAN 8/1
7 ANZIYAN ROYALTY 12/1
8 CHOCTAW NATION 5/2
First Selection: (7) ANZIYAN ROYALTY (Dollase Craig/Nakatani C S)
This horse for course won his first four career starts over this track,
including a very fast renewal of the On Trust Handicap to end his 4yo
campaign last November 13. He returned from a 5-month layoff this spring
and clearly needed his April 24 race. He finished 4th that day, but ran
better than appears, as he was sitting close to a mercurial pace before
falling back a bit and racing evenly in the stretch. He stepped it up
quite a bit when returning May 14 in the G2 Mervyn LeRoy, and although he
lost by 1-3/4 lengths, he would have had a chance to win with a better
trip. He stalked the two leaders, but was trapped down along the rail
through the stretch when Borrego came up outside and kept him hemmed in.
If Anziyan Royalty had gotten a chance to get outside I believe he would
have had a chance to catch the top two finishers. That makes his close 4th
place finish a 'sneaky good' effort, and sets him up very nicely for his
third start off the layoff. Craig Dollase makes a rider change today to
his brother in law, Corey Nakatani, who he uses for most of his top
horses. With excellent early speed I expect Anziyan Royalty to sit just
off the pace, making his move ahead of most of his rivals. If Nakatani can
keep him free ane clear in the lane, then he has a chance to pull off the
win at a square price.
Second Selection: (8) CHOCTAW NATION (Mullins Jeff/Espinoza V)
Since winning the first five starts of his career this gelding has lost
three in a row, but note that those wins were all against G1 or G2
company, and he ran well in each instance. His most recent effort was
particularly good, finishing 3rd in the $6 million Dubai World Cup behind
Roses In May, who would be heavily favored if in this field. Choctaw
Nation has been away for 3 months since then, but he's always fired when
fresh in the past, and he should get an honest or fast pace to rally into.
He has an outstanding late kick and also sheds 10 lbs. off his World Cup
effort. The belief here is that while he's certainly good enough to win,
he may be using this race more as a prep for the Gold Cup next month.
Third Selection: (5) BORREGO (Greely C Beau/Gomez G K)
Although he's won almost $700,000, this colt has yet to win a stakes race.
It's not for lack of ability, as he's hit the board in five G2 races, but
he just always seems to find someone to beat him. If the Mervyn LeRoy was
at today's distance he might have won, but his outside rally fell a neck
short at that 1-1/16 mile distance. Today's 1-1/8 trip should be more to
his liking, and he shows four more works in the interim.
Fourth Selection: (1) ACE BLUE (Hollendorfer Jerry/Flores D R)
Streaking 5yo has won three in a row, including a very game score in the
Mervyn LeRoy here May 14. His pace pressing style should have him involved
from the start today, but he had to work very hard to win last time out,
and it's not a stretch to think that he might 'bounce' off that hard race.
He's also making his first start for his new owners and trainer off a
private purchase, and sometimes horses need a little time to re-acclimate
to the new stall, new training regimine, etc. He's an up and comer in the
handicap ranks, but this may not be his best chance for a win.
Wagering Strategy
We should get a fair price on our top horse in this open betting race, and
the exotics also should pay well if we can hit them.
A win and place bet on (7)ANZIYAN ROYALTY
Exacta box 5-7-8 = $12 for a $2 wager
Trifecta: 7 over 1-5-8 over ALL = $18 for a $1 wager
Comments
to do it?
As much as the Arena football guy!
HAHAHAHA