SoCalGuy at Hollywood Park
MrExacta
Senior Member
SPECIAL NEWS: I have been asked by Hollywood Park's marketing department
to help them host tomorrow's Hollywood MAPS at the Paddock and I gladly
accepted. If you happen to live nearby the Inglewood area or within
driving distance then come by to Hollywood Park and say hello.
Christopher Ado?s Hollywood Park Handicap Best Play Selections, Analysis,
and Wagering Strategies from Hollywood Park Saturday June 18, 2005 By
Christopher Ado
Today?s Action from Hollywood Park: I will play races 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8.
In addition, I will put together $15 into a Pick 3 (Races 5-7)
Race Four: Claiming $25,000 to $22,500, 7 Furlongs, Four-year olds and up
HELLO FAME (#3, 6-1) is hard to accept considering that he has finished
combined second or third in seven or twenty-three starts in his career,
but I find it interesting that instead of dropping this horse to the level
claim or below it, trainer Doug O? Neil keeps this gelding above the level
he was claimed off a defeat on May 7 and that is a sign of confidence from
the meet?s leading trainer. In the money in half of his six starts this
year he was unforunate not to win on April 1 at Santa Anita. He was
forwardly placed in three horse speed duel made a run at the leaders and
took the lead past mid-stretch only to be run down by the opportunistic
closer Bear on My Mind while four-lengths clear of the rest of the field.
He was in a bit tight between rivals and had to take up momentarily in
deep stretch when he was reeled back two weeks later. He was claimed by O?
Neil and returned on May 7 on the jump in class and finished a better than
looked fourth beaten only 2-¾-lengths in a race that is much better than
the 85 Beyer Speed Figure the race earned. He was three deep in a brutal
four horse battle for the early lead with North Dakota, Charmer Baron, and
Under the Sun and those four dueled through a 21.89-second opening
quarter, the fastest opening quarter from the five sprints on the card. He
hung in tough after putting away two of his rivals (finished sixth and
ninth) and fought on gamely with Under the Sun through the lane only to be
overhauled in the final furlong by deep closers that rallied from
9th-5th-7th after first quarter. He stretches out an additional furlong to
a distance that he is winless in three starts, but his race has proven to
be ?key? race as the winner returned to run second for $32,000 on June 12,
fifth-place finisher returned to win on May 21, and the seventh-place
finisher returned to win on May 28. Rather than being drawn wide, he is
comfortable drawn in post three today and more relax early tempo should
equal to a more kick in the lane at a square number under Jon Court.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) HELLO FAME to WIN
Main Exacta Boxes: 3-1 and 3-7
Small Exacta: 3-5. No reverse
Race Five: G2 Californian Stakes, 1-1/8 Miles, Three-year olds and up LAVA
MAN (#6, 8-1) is winless in his previous four starts at today?s mile and
eighth trip including finishing seventh beaten 14-½-lengths in his last
start at today?s distance in the $1 Million Sunshine Millions Classic at
the beginning of the year. However, he ran a winning race in defeat in
last fall?s California Cup Classic at Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting. He
dueled through a torrid early pace, put away his pace rival (finished off
the board), and was worn down only in deep stretch while five-lengths
clear of the rest of the field earning a 107 Beyer Speed Figure that is
close to par for this Grade 2 event. This California-bred Slew City Slew
gelding had finished off the board in three previous starts this year
before returning for the claiming price of $100,000 on May 14 here at
Hollywood Park and won impressively going away in his first start with the
addition of blinkers.
Caught three horses wide into the first turn and down the backstretch, he
immediately challenge the favorite and his stable mate, Perfect Moon,
around the far turn, put his mate away (finished fourth), and proceeded to
draw away though the lane in a final time that was .43 seconds slower than
the G2 Mervyn Le Roy run seven races later. Despite that time, he won that
event chasing or pressing a faster early pace (47.01 and 1:10.59-seconds).
He indicated he has maintain his form with a six-furlong breeze eight days
ago and gets the services of the hustling Patrick Valenzuela who should
ensure that this gelding is prominent from the moments the gate open at a
price that will more than fair to accept for the meet?s leading trainer
Doug O?
Neil.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (6) LAVA MAN to WIN
Main Exactas: 6-1 and 6-3. Small reverse for each Small Exacta: 6-5. No
reverse
Race Six: Allowance N1X, 5-½ Furlongs Turf, Fillies and mares,
Three-and-up SPRING OF PEARLS (#6, 20-1) does not exit the race that
Guarantee Victory and An Annika Moment ran as both horses ran a in race
where 3-¾-lengths separated the first through the eighth place finishers
suggesting a weak event forcing me to look elsewhere and it landed me on
this long shot that has a chance to steal this race on the front end for
the resurgent Tim Yakteen stable. This Big Shuffle filly showed a lot of
promise in her native Ireland having never finished off the board in three
starts as a two-year old concluding her juvenile campaign with a maiden
victory over males drawing away leaving her field well strung out, sign of
a quality victory.
She privately acquired by Jerry Jamgotchian and made her three-year old
debut on May 5 where she got a lot of support going off as the 2-1 second
choice behind the favorite and eventual winner Desert Tent and ran like a
filly that needed a race. She away slowly and rushed up along the inside
to chase the runaway pacemaker My Heart. She continued to be in the hunt
towards mid-stretch before finally giving way to finish ahead of one rival
beaten 5-½-lengths in the process. This effort did not discourage her
connections as they pointed her towards the Manhattan Beach Stakes three
weeks later and she finished last beaten 9-½-lengths by $62.60 Turf
Paradise shipper Kresgsville. However, she did suffer a brutal trip. She
took up sharply off the heels of horses soon after the start and was
crowded thereafter. She rushed up between rivals to be part of a
four-horse battle for the early lead while racing in three wide. She
continued to race with the battle through midway on the far turn before
taking up between rivals and was not badly abused through the stretch
indicating the margin of defeat is insignificant. She returns in a race
with very little early speed signed on and under clean start this filly
can show her expected early zip for a barn that has won an amazing 4 of
his last 7 starters (57%) making their third start off the layoff and with
only five starts she has plenty of blue sky ahead of her at box car odds.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (6) SPRING OF PEARLS to WIN and PLACE Main Exacta Boxes: 6-2 and
6-5.
Race Seven: Claiming $32,000 to $28,000, 1-1/16 Miles, Four-year olds and
up ME MY MINE (#3, 7-2) drops to his lowest level for trainer Vladimir
Cerin and this move is acceptable because this Belong to Me gelding has
not won since July of last year for his previous trainer and thus the drop
is performed. Though this gelding is winless in all fourteen starts on
turf, he did not run badly in his first two starts for the Cerin barn.
Sent off at
10-1 in his first start for his new barn, he lagged far back behind
lukewarm early pace, tried to split rivals, but the hole closed and was
force to take back. He altered course and finished up nicely to get up for
second in a race he was likely best. He returned at Oak Tree and cut back
a quarter of a mile to 1-1/8 distance last October and chase the pace in
mid-pack before commencing a menacing bid to challenge the winner at
mid-stretch and flattened out with no apparent excuse finishing behind
eventual G3 Carol Burke Habaneros. He was compromised by a leisurely early
fractions set by the horse for course and gate to wire winner Sweet
Stepper. He likely was sidelined with an unspecified injury as he was sent
towards the sidelines for more than six months when he returned on May 30
and split the field. He returns to the surface and distance that he has
recorded all three of his career victories for a trainer that has won 22
of his previous 98 starters going turf-to-dirt (22%) and Corey Nakatini
decides to remain in the irons for this red-hot stable. His best speed
figure at this distance is well above par and return to that form will put
this five-year old gelding back to the winner circle as our most probable
winner and Pick Six single on the program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) ME MY MINE to WIN
Main Exactas: 3-7 and 3-8. No reverse
Small Exacta: 3-9. No reverse
Race Eight: Allowance N3X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares,
Three-and-up NAVAJA (#3, 6-1) this five-year old New Zealand-bred mare
earned a Beyer Speed Figure in her last time start that is par for this
class level and stretching to a route of ground will only help her as both
of her victories last year occurred around two turns. She finished a close
second in her previous start at this trip before scoring a convincing
victory in her third start in the States. She was overmatched in two of
her next three starts and found the ?good? turf course not her affinity.
She made her first start over the Inglewood turf course last November and
got up in the last jump to win by a nose at a distance that might be too
far for this dark bay mare.
However, she tied up badly after the race had to be van off the track. She
did handle the switch to the main track successfully in her next start and
then finished a fast closing fourth covering her final quarter of a mile
in 23.87-seconds finishing ahead of subsequent next-out winner
Shezsospritual and Paz Ciudanda. She likely was sidelined with a injury as
she did not make it to the races for almost five months when she returned
on June 3 in the restricted Exotic Wood Stakes and finished a fine second
in a race designed as prep for this race as the winner and stable mate was
stepping up in class. She was away last but quickly recovered to rush up
and show fine positional early speed to track the early pace, made a
strong run around the turn, and finished up nicely to get up for second in
a fine sharpener for her return to two turns. She has bounced back with a
brisk 5F move six days ago for the resurgent Roger Stein barn and the type
of tactical speed illustrated her last race is positive sign that she is
moving in the right direction. With jockey Tony Farina?s average win
mutual being $63.07 I look for this mare to be over looked in her second
start off the bench.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) NAVAJA to WIN
Main Exactas: 3-2 and 3-6. Small reverse for each Small Exacta: 3-7. No
reverse
Hollywood Park Race 5 Pick 3
Race 5: (1) Ace Blue, (3) Keep On Punching, and (6) LAVA MAN Race 6: (2)
Swing the Cat, (5) Mercedes Dancer, and (6) Spring of Pearls Race 7: (3)
ME MY MINE
Ticket A: 6 / 2-5-6 / 3 = 1 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $6
Ticket B: 1-3-6 / 2-5-6 / 3 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $9 Total Wager: $15
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: ME MY MINE (Race Seven, 7-2) BEST LONGSHOT BET:
SPRING OF PEARLS (Race Six, 20-1) WORSE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: GUARANTEED
VICTORY (Race Six, 5-2)
to help them host tomorrow's Hollywood MAPS at the Paddock and I gladly
accepted. If you happen to live nearby the Inglewood area or within
driving distance then come by to Hollywood Park and say hello.
Christopher Ado?s Hollywood Park Handicap Best Play Selections, Analysis,
and Wagering Strategies from Hollywood Park Saturday June 18, 2005 By
Christopher Ado
Today?s Action from Hollywood Park: I will play races 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8.
In addition, I will put together $15 into a Pick 3 (Races 5-7)
Race Four: Claiming $25,000 to $22,500, 7 Furlongs, Four-year olds and up
HELLO FAME (#3, 6-1) is hard to accept considering that he has finished
combined second or third in seven or twenty-three starts in his career,
but I find it interesting that instead of dropping this horse to the level
claim or below it, trainer Doug O? Neil keeps this gelding above the level
he was claimed off a defeat on May 7 and that is a sign of confidence from
the meet?s leading trainer. In the money in half of his six starts this
year he was unforunate not to win on April 1 at Santa Anita. He was
forwardly placed in three horse speed duel made a run at the leaders and
took the lead past mid-stretch only to be run down by the opportunistic
closer Bear on My Mind while four-lengths clear of the rest of the field.
He was in a bit tight between rivals and had to take up momentarily in
deep stretch when he was reeled back two weeks later. He was claimed by O?
Neil and returned on May 7 on the jump in class and finished a better than
looked fourth beaten only 2-¾-lengths in a race that is much better than
the 85 Beyer Speed Figure the race earned. He was three deep in a brutal
four horse battle for the early lead with North Dakota, Charmer Baron, and
Under the Sun and those four dueled through a 21.89-second opening
quarter, the fastest opening quarter from the five sprints on the card. He
hung in tough after putting away two of his rivals (finished sixth and
ninth) and fought on gamely with Under the Sun through the lane only to be
overhauled in the final furlong by deep closers that rallied from
9th-5th-7th after first quarter. He stretches out an additional furlong to
a distance that he is winless in three starts, but his race has proven to
be ?key? race as the winner returned to run second for $32,000 on June 12,
fifth-place finisher returned to win on May 21, and the seventh-place
finisher returned to win on May 28. Rather than being drawn wide, he is
comfortable drawn in post three today and more relax early tempo should
equal to a more kick in the lane at a square number under Jon Court.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) HELLO FAME to WIN
Main Exacta Boxes: 3-1 and 3-7
Small Exacta: 3-5. No reverse
Race Five: G2 Californian Stakes, 1-1/8 Miles, Three-year olds and up LAVA
MAN (#6, 8-1) is winless in his previous four starts at today?s mile and
eighth trip including finishing seventh beaten 14-½-lengths in his last
start at today?s distance in the $1 Million Sunshine Millions Classic at
the beginning of the year. However, he ran a winning race in defeat in
last fall?s California Cup Classic at Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting. He
dueled through a torrid early pace, put away his pace rival (finished off
the board), and was worn down only in deep stretch while five-lengths
clear of the rest of the field earning a 107 Beyer Speed Figure that is
close to par for this Grade 2 event. This California-bred Slew City Slew
gelding had finished off the board in three previous starts this year
before returning for the claiming price of $100,000 on May 14 here at
Hollywood Park and won impressively going away in his first start with the
addition of blinkers.
Caught three horses wide into the first turn and down the backstretch, he
immediately challenge the favorite and his stable mate, Perfect Moon,
around the far turn, put his mate away (finished fourth), and proceeded to
draw away though the lane in a final time that was .43 seconds slower than
the G2 Mervyn Le Roy run seven races later. Despite that time, he won that
event chasing or pressing a faster early pace (47.01 and 1:10.59-seconds).
He indicated he has maintain his form with a six-furlong breeze eight days
ago and gets the services of the hustling Patrick Valenzuela who should
ensure that this gelding is prominent from the moments the gate open at a
price that will more than fair to accept for the meet?s leading trainer
Doug O?
Neil.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (6) LAVA MAN to WIN
Main Exactas: 6-1 and 6-3. Small reverse for each Small Exacta: 6-5. No
reverse
Race Six: Allowance N1X, 5-½ Furlongs Turf, Fillies and mares,
Three-and-up SPRING OF PEARLS (#6, 20-1) does not exit the race that
Guarantee Victory and An Annika Moment ran as both horses ran a in race
where 3-¾-lengths separated the first through the eighth place finishers
suggesting a weak event forcing me to look elsewhere and it landed me on
this long shot that has a chance to steal this race on the front end for
the resurgent Tim Yakteen stable. This Big Shuffle filly showed a lot of
promise in her native Ireland having never finished off the board in three
starts as a two-year old concluding her juvenile campaign with a maiden
victory over males drawing away leaving her field well strung out, sign of
a quality victory.
She privately acquired by Jerry Jamgotchian and made her three-year old
debut on May 5 where she got a lot of support going off as the 2-1 second
choice behind the favorite and eventual winner Desert Tent and ran like a
filly that needed a race. She away slowly and rushed up along the inside
to chase the runaway pacemaker My Heart. She continued to be in the hunt
towards mid-stretch before finally giving way to finish ahead of one rival
beaten 5-½-lengths in the process. This effort did not discourage her
connections as they pointed her towards the Manhattan Beach Stakes three
weeks later and she finished last beaten 9-½-lengths by $62.60 Turf
Paradise shipper Kresgsville. However, she did suffer a brutal trip. She
took up sharply off the heels of horses soon after the start and was
crowded thereafter. She rushed up between rivals to be part of a
four-horse battle for the early lead while racing in three wide. She
continued to race with the battle through midway on the far turn before
taking up between rivals and was not badly abused through the stretch
indicating the margin of defeat is insignificant. She returns in a race
with very little early speed signed on and under clean start this filly
can show her expected early zip for a barn that has won an amazing 4 of
his last 7 starters (57%) making their third start off the layoff and with
only five starts she has plenty of blue sky ahead of her at box car odds.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (6) SPRING OF PEARLS to WIN and PLACE Main Exacta Boxes: 6-2 and
6-5.
Race Seven: Claiming $32,000 to $28,000, 1-1/16 Miles, Four-year olds and
up ME MY MINE (#3, 7-2) drops to his lowest level for trainer Vladimir
Cerin and this move is acceptable because this Belong to Me gelding has
not won since July of last year for his previous trainer and thus the drop
is performed. Though this gelding is winless in all fourteen starts on
turf, he did not run badly in his first two starts for the Cerin barn.
Sent off at
10-1 in his first start for his new barn, he lagged far back behind
lukewarm early pace, tried to split rivals, but the hole closed and was
force to take back. He altered course and finished up nicely to get up for
second in a race he was likely best. He returned at Oak Tree and cut back
a quarter of a mile to 1-1/8 distance last October and chase the pace in
mid-pack before commencing a menacing bid to challenge the winner at
mid-stretch and flattened out with no apparent excuse finishing behind
eventual G3 Carol Burke Habaneros. He was compromised by a leisurely early
fractions set by the horse for course and gate to wire winner Sweet
Stepper. He likely was sidelined with an unspecified injury as he was sent
towards the sidelines for more than six months when he returned on May 30
and split the field. He returns to the surface and distance that he has
recorded all three of his career victories for a trainer that has won 22
of his previous 98 starters going turf-to-dirt (22%) and Corey Nakatini
decides to remain in the irons for this red-hot stable. His best speed
figure at this distance is well above par and return to that form will put
this five-year old gelding back to the winner circle as our most probable
winner and Pick Six single on the program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) ME MY MINE to WIN
Main Exactas: 3-7 and 3-8. No reverse
Small Exacta: 3-9. No reverse
Race Eight: Allowance N3X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares,
Three-and-up NAVAJA (#3, 6-1) this five-year old New Zealand-bred mare
earned a Beyer Speed Figure in her last time start that is par for this
class level and stretching to a route of ground will only help her as both
of her victories last year occurred around two turns. She finished a close
second in her previous start at this trip before scoring a convincing
victory in her third start in the States. She was overmatched in two of
her next three starts and found the ?good? turf course not her affinity.
She made her first start over the Inglewood turf course last November and
got up in the last jump to win by a nose at a distance that might be too
far for this dark bay mare.
However, she tied up badly after the race had to be van off the track. She
did handle the switch to the main track successfully in her next start and
then finished a fast closing fourth covering her final quarter of a mile
in 23.87-seconds finishing ahead of subsequent next-out winner
Shezsospritual and Paz Ciudanda. She likely was sidelined with a injury as
she did not make it to the races for almost five months when she returned
on June 3 in the restricted Exotic Wood Stakes and finished a fine second
in a race designed as prep for this race as the winner and stable mate was
stepping up in class. She was away last but quickly recovered to rush up
and show fine positional early speed to track the early pace, made a
strong run around the turn, and finished up nicely to get up for second in
a fine sharpener for her return to two turns. She has bounced back with a
brisk 5F move six days ago for the resurgent Roger Stein barn and the type
of tactical speed illustrated her last race is positive sign that she is
moving in the right direction. With jockey Tony Farina?s average win
mutual being $63.07 I look for this mare to be over looked in her second
start off the bench.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) NAVAJA to WIN
Main Exactas: 3-2 and 3-6. Small reverse for each Small Exacta: 3-7. No
reverse
Hollywood Park Race 5 Pick 3
Race 5: (1) Ace Blue, (3) Keep On Punching, and (6) LAVA MAN Race 6: (2)
Swing the Cat, (5) Mercedes Dancer, and (6) Spring of Pearls Race 7: (3)
ME MY MINE
Ticket A: 6 / 2-5-6 / 3 = 1 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $6
Ticket B: 1-3-6 / 2-5-6 / 3 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $9 Total Wager: $15
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: ME MY MINE (Race Seven, 7-2) BEST LONGSHOT BET:
SPRING OF PEARLS (Race Six, 20-1) WORSE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: GUARANTEED
VICTORY (Race Six, 5-2)
Comments
both.
Yee Haw!