ASU VS. FLORIDA WRITE UP FROM THE BOX GUY
JBDude
Member
Another wonderful write up by Boxslayer over there.
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Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Florida Gators
Jason Urquidez or Zechery Zinocola vs. RH Junior Alan Horne
General Impression
Elimination game today suddenly, and the Sun Devils have battled after
losing game 1 of the CWS to win every game since, and the light is at the
end of the tunnel. They will now be playing their 3rd game in as many
days. ASU's record against teams that at least made the field of 64
postseason, is 6-5 on the 3rd game of 3 days straight of games. It's these
types of games where Florida's grueling SEC schedule should show. I felt
ASU was the weakest team in this field behind Oregon State. Mainly because
of their lack of pitching depth. And head coach Pat Murphy is showing it.
He's yet again trying to force his ace on the mound, this time on 1 day
rest, to pitch for the 3rd time in 5 games. This ace isn't a gimmick
pitcher like Averill. Averill got away with going on 2 days rest because
he throws changeups anyway, so the fact that he lost zip and movement on
his fastball didn't matter because he throws so many changeups. But
Urquidez doesn't throw 83% changeups. He goes after you with his fastball,
and his fastball isn't over-powering as it is, but he won't have enough
zip on it on 1 day rest. But they are playing hot baseball right now, and
it's tough to bet against that.
ASU's Pitcher
ASU is trying to start ace Jason Urquidez, once again trying to avoid
going to their 3rd starter. In their 5th Omaha game, they will try to
throw Urquidez for a 3rd time. Urquidez is a bit different from Averill.
Averill is a soft-lefty 83% changeup thrower, and although on a changeup
the grip is what slows the pitch down, it does have considerably less
amount of stress on the arm, and he was on 2 day's rest. Urquidez is a
fastball throwing righty, and the fastball is the most violent action a
arm can take. He is only on 1 day rest after throwing 73 pitches. Because
he threw 73 pitches, there is the chance he could be available to go 4-5
innings, and then they can hand it over to Bresnehan, Borders, and
Zenicola. I wouldn't expect that extra zip on Urquidez's fastball that
allows him to be so effective. His ball should be flat, and the Gators
have feasted on hard throwing righties this post-season with their
aggressive at-bats. It took a soft-allchangeups lefty to get them out of
rhytmn yesterday.
Florida's Pitcher
Florida starts their ace and go-to guy, former 1st rounder Alan Horne.
Horne was 93-94 in game 1 of his Gators win over Tennessee in game 1, and
he was dominant striking out 5 of the first 6 batters he faced. Horne is
on 5 days rest, and should be ready to go with a full Florida bullpen
behind him including All-American reliever Connor Falkenbach and dominant
side-winder Darren O'Day.
ASU's advantage
Momentum. This team is playing baseball and just finding ways to win. They
beat Florida yesterday and that is a great thing to know coming into this
game. ASU is 3-0 all-time vs. Florida, all of those games being
post-season or CWS games. The team that has come back from the loser's
bracket to defeat the winners bracket teams, wins this next game nearly
90% of the time. However, I'm not a big believer in using stats from years
ago to determine what these two teams with tese different players and
coaches and situations will do in their games. But it is a stat
none-the-less. The other ASU advantage is their left-handed hitting lineup
vs. Florida's right-handed pitching staff. The Gators don't have any
effective lefties in the bullpen, and they start a righty. In fact, the
Gators bullpen studs are side-winding righties. All-American ace Connor
Falkenbach is dominant of righties on the year, but lefties bat almost
.100 points higher. Sidewinder O'Day had no problems dominating Nebraska's
left-handed lineup and pinch hitters in his 4.3 IP 3 hit 0 runs
performance. ASU is just playing great baseball with their backs against
the wall.
Florida's Advantage
While ASU went ace (co-ace) #2 Averill vs. Florida's #3, today Florida
might be able to do the same in return. Ace Alan Horne for Florida who
runs his fastball up to 95, vs. a very tired ace Urquidez, or Arizona
State's bullpen stud will be in a starting role, Zinicola. No matter what
age you are, playing 5 games in 7 days is absolutely draining. I think
Florida came out flat yesterday from their lay-off, didnt make any
adjustments, stayed off balance and were unable to recover late. Today,
they're back in the saddle and back facing the types of pitchers that they
have crushed all post-season: hard throwing righties. In this game,
they'll get a tired Urquidez with no zip on his fastball. I'm the first to
lineup and bet on Urquidez, especially at an underdog price, but not on 1
day rest and the way this Gator team has ripped right handers. Florida
still is the fresher team in this one, and any momentum ASU has can be
eliminated with a couple of Gator hits.
Bottom Line
Bottom line is there is no clear-cut advantage in this game, although I
think the line has value for Florida. Florida is still more well-rested,
they have their ace on the mound on 5 days rest, they have the hitting
team that feasts of righties, ASU is throwing their ace for the 3rd time
in 5 games, and 1 day rest, which is unheard of, and there is a reason for
that. But ASU has the momentum(and you can't really cap momentum or
overvalue it like Nebraska home-field because it goes out the window with
1 Gator HR or 1 Gator lead), they have the left-handed hitting lineup
against the Florida starter and bullpen. I think this is a game that could
go back and forth. I think the Gators might give up a run in the 1st. I
think their bats will put up 4 in the next few innings, and ASU will chip
1 or 2 away. And then Florida will add one and it will come down to can
Florida's righthanded bullpen shut down ASU's tired left handed bats to
preserve the win? In every game I've laid off in this CWS, you've seen
some dramatics and extra inning back and forthers. I think you'll get
another close game in this one, with no clear advantage to either team,
and I'm not interested in a tie game in the 8th and 9th and relying on a
ball getting lost in the sun or some weird play to determine if I win or
lose money.
For the record, I think Florida wins this game 6 times out of 10. I think
they are the better team. I like the situation they are in with their ace
on 5 days rest vs. a tired ASU staff. ASU hasn't thrown a 3rd starter for
a reason, they DO NOT want to go to their 3rd starter. That has to catch
up with them eventually and expose them. In my mind, there is no way I can
lay money on a team that has no answer at pitching for this game against
the way these Gator bats have hit right handed fastballs and their ace.
Don't overvalue momentum or stats from years ago that have nothing to do
with the players and coaches on these teams the way people overvalue
Nebraska's home field advantage. The thing that is keeping me off the
Gators is their right handed staff vs. the ASU left handed hitting lineup.
In games that are too close to call, I love taking the underdog. But at
+135, there isn't enough value in them for me like there was when they
were +200 and +180.
Best of luck.
________________________________________________
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Florida Gators
Jason Urquidez or Zechery Zinocola vs. RH Junior Alan Horne
General Impression
Elimination game today suddenly, and the Sun Devils have battled after
losing game 1 of the CWS to win every game since, and the light is at the
end of the tunnel. They will now be playing their 3rd game in as many
days. ASU's record against teams that at least made the field of 64
postseason, is 6-5 on the 3rd game of 3 days straight of games. It's these
types of games where Florida's grueling SEC schedule should show. I felt
ASU was the weakest team in this field behind Oregon State. Mainly because
of their lack of pitching depth. And head coach Pat Murphy is showing it.
He's yet again trying to force his ace on the mound, this time on 1 day
rest, to pitch for the 3rd time in 5 games. This ace isn't a gimmick
pitcher like Averill. Averill got away with going on 2 days rest because
he throws changeups anyway, so the fact that he lost zip and movement on
his fastball didn't matter because he throws so many changeups. But
Urquidez doesn't throw 83% changeups. He goes after you with his fastball,
and his fastball isn't over-powering as it is, but he won't have enough
zip on it on 1 day rest. But they are playing hot baseball right now, and
it's tough to bet against that.
ASU's Pitcher
ASU is trying to start ace Jason Urquidez, once again trying to avoid
going to their 3rd starter. In their 5th Omaha game, they will try to
throw Urquidez for a 3rd time. Urquidez is a bit different from Averill.
Averill is a soft-lefty 83% changeup thrower, and although on a changeup
the grip is what slows the pitch down, it does have considerably less
amount of stress on the arm, and he was on 2 day's rest. Urquidez is a
fastball throwing righty, and the fastball is the most violent action a
arm can take. He is only on 1 day rest after throwing 73 pitches. Because
he threw 73 pitches, there is the chance he could be available to go 4-5
innings, and then they can hand it over to Bresnehan, Borders, and
Zenicola. I wouldn't expect that extra zip on Urquidez's fastball that
allows him to be so effective. His ball should be flat, and the Gators
have feasted on hard throwing righties this post-season with their
aggressive at-bats. It took a soft-allchangeups lefty to get them out of
rhytmn yesterday.
Florida's Pitcher
Florida starts their ace and go-to guy, former 1st rounder Alan Horne.
Horne was 93-94 in game 1 of his Gators win over Tennessee in game 1, and
he was dominant striking out 5 of the first 6 batters he faced. Horne is
on 5 days rest, and should be ready to go with a full Florida bullpen
behind him including All-American reliever Connor Falkenbach and dominant
side-winder Darren O'Day.
ASU's advantage
Momentum. This team is playing baseball and just finding ways to win. They
beat Florida yesterday and that is a great thing to know coming into this
game. ASU is 3-0 all-time vs. Florida, all of those games being
post-season or CWS games. The team that has come back from the loser's
bracket to defeat the winners bracket teams, wins this next game nearly
90% of the time. However, I'm not a big believer in using stats from years
ago to determine what these two teams with tese different players and
coaches and situations will do in their games. But it is a stat
none-the-less. The other ASU advantage is their left-handed hitting lineup
vs. Florida's right-handed pitching staff. The Gators don't have any
effective lefties in the bullpen, and they start a righty. In fact, the
Gators bullpen studs are side-winding righties. All-American ace Connor
Falkenbach is dominant of righties on the year, but lefties bat almost
.100 points higher. Sidewinder O'Day had no problems dominating Nebraska's
left-handed lineup and pinch hitters in his 4.3 IP 3 hit 0 runs
performance. ASU is just playing great baseball with their backs against
the wall.
Florida's Advantage
While ASU went ace (co-ace) #2 Averill vs. Florida's #3, today Florida
might be able to do the same in return. Ace Alan Horne for Florida who
runs his fastball up to 95, vs. a very tired ace Urquidez, or Arizona
State's bullpen stud will be in a starting role, Zinicola. No matter what
age you are, playing 5 games in 7 days is absolutely draining. I think
Florida came out flat yesterday from their lay-off, didnt make any
adjustments, stayed off balance and were unable to recover late. Today,
they're back in the saddle and back facing the types of pitchers that they
have crushed all post-season: hard throwing righties. In this game,
they'll get a tired Urquidez with no zip on his fastball. I'm the first to
lineup and bet on Urquidez, especially at an underdog price, but not on 1
day rest and the way this Gator team has ripped right handers. Florida
still is the fresher team in this one, and any momentum ASU has can be
eliminated with a couple of Gator hits.
Bottom Line
Bottom line is there is no clear-cut advantage in this game, although I
think the line has value for Florida. Florida is still more well-rested,
they have their ace on the mound on 5 days rest, they have the hitting
team that feasts of righties, ASU is throwing their ace for the 3rd time
in 5 games, and 1 day rest, which is unheard of, and there is a reason for
that. But ASU has the momentum(and you can't really cap momentum or
overvalue it like Nebraska home-field because it goes out the window with
1 Gator HR or 1 Gator lead), they have the left-handed hitting lineup
against the Florida starter and bullpen. I think this is a game that could
go back and forth. I think the Gators might give up a run in the 1st. I
think their bats will put up 4 in the next few innings, and ASU will chip
1 or 2 away. And then Florida will add one and it will come down to can
Florida's righthanded bullpen shut down ASU's tired left handed bats to
preserve the win? In every game I've laid off in this CWS, you've seen
some dramatics and extra inning back and forthers. I think you'll get
another close game in this one, with no clear advantage to either team,
and I'm not interested in a tie game in the 8th and 9th and relying on a
ball getting lost in the sun or some weird play to determine if I win or
lose money.
For the record, I think Florida wins this game 6 times out of 10. I think
they are the better team. I like the situation they are in with their ace
on 5 days rest vs. a tired ASU staff. ASU hasn't thrown a 3rd starter for
a reason, they DO NOT want to go to their 3rd starter. That has to catch
up with them eventually and expose them. In my mind, there is no way I can
lay money on a team that has no answer at pitching for this game against
the way these Gator bats have hit right handed fastballs and their ace.
Don't overvalue momentum or stats from years ago that have nothing to do
with the players and coaches on these teams the way people overvalue
Nebraska's home field advantage. The thing that is keeping me off the
Gators is their right handed staff vs. the ASU left handed hitting lineup.
In games that are too close to call, I love taking the underdog. But at
+135, there isn't enough value in them for me like there was when they
were +200 and +180.
Best of luck.