Oh looks like LAD game off because of pitcher change.
Jake, Dodgers scratched RHill because of an infection on his middle finger. Roberts originally was gonna substitute Stewart but they decided on Stripling. This is a troubled LAD team.
Lean Royals but not sure I have the stones to trust their bullpen in the later innings.
Royals/Red Sox o8.5 -115
Total just seems low. Neither starter pitcher is an ace... both guys are capable of putting in quality innings but generally give up some runs. Betts out for Boston but Bogaerts is back so the lineup isn't much worse off than it has been the last few weeks. Red Sox's bats have cooled off a bit but they still have a ton of quality hitters in there. Rodriguez is pitching pretty well for Boston but KC has done a pretty good job against lefties and KC hit Rodriguez last year. Then on top of that the Royals' bullpen is always a threat to give up a bunch of runs late. Just seems half a run too low.
Phillies -140
Bour is out for the Marlins which takes away pretty much any chance they had of getting much done against Arrieta. Arrieta has a solid pen behind him. Then you have Straily for the Marlins... coming off injury, making first start after getting smacked around in 3 rehab starts. It's possible he puts in good innings here but more likely he's going to be rusty. Philly hit him hard in 4 of 5 starts last year when he was healthy. Behind Straily is a very hittable bullpen. The worry here is that Philly's offense hasn't been sharp lately and has struggled with some hittable pitchers, but I'm willing to roll the dice they get enough done against Straily here to get the win.
Really wanted the under here but can't mess with it with the wind going out nicely at Wrigley. Will take a shot on the Rockies. Neither of these teams are hitting right now. Both bullpens are above average. Lester is a better pitcher than Freeland but not 55 points better or whatever the odds indicate. Neither of these guys is a ground ball pitcher but Freeland is better at keeping the ball in the park. That could be huge today with the wind carrying pitches. Freeland has a better ground ball % and a better rate of his fly balls staying in the park. That's enough for me to try the big dog. Rockies' lineup will miss LeMahieu's godly bat against southpaws but the line is just too inflated.
Really wanted to take the Rays here but missed the line move thanks to a phone call. Blah. It might make some sense to wait on this over and I think it could go further under now that Miggy is out, but I have a busy day so just taking it now. Zimmerman can't get outs anymore and the Rays are mashing. Detroit's bullpen is better than last year but still below average. Rays should score here. Will Tigers score without Miggy? Faria is a solid pitcher but he's had some struggles on the road and hasn't been particularly sharp this year. Having control issues. Tigers should be able to get a few runs off of him and the Rays' bullpen is only average. Thinking this one gets to 10 or 11 runs.
Seems like a good one. Nats are hitting decently enough but nothing too exciting, Rendon being out takes some pop out of their lineup. Kuhl has ace potential but doesn't see like he is there yet. That being said, he's usually decent enough and has put together back-to-back good outings after a rough spring and start to the regular season. Seems like he might be starting to pitch better. The Pirates' pen started out horribly but has been pitching much better of late. Pirates are hitting decently enough as well but Scherzer is on the mound and they might get blanked. Pirates haven't really faced many aces this season and haven't fared well against the halfway decent ones. They also haven't hit that well on the road. Of the healthy Pirates with 6 or more career at-bats against Scherzer, they have combined to get 7 hits in 55 chances... not ideal. Nats pen is solid enough. Nats win 4-1 or so.
Lean under in u9 +105 in Brewers/Reds but Reds are mashing, Homer Bailey is tough to trust, and the Reds' pen ultimately will scare me off most borderline unders involving them.
Marlins -110
My line wasn't even close here. Neither team is hitting much and the Phillies have the power advantage but that probably won't be a huge factor in this pitcher's park. The Phillies couldn't touch lefties last year and Garcia is throwing fire right now. I don't see anything that leads me to believe he's a future ace, and I fully expect him to have some starts where his control lets him down, but ultimately he's in a good form against a team that doesn't hit lefties. Then you have Eflin starting for the other side... has been awful in the majors, has been pretty awful in the minors... had one decent half season in AAA years ago and got promoted but hasn't been able to duplicate anything close to that success at any level since then. He has below average stats in the minors this year after getting rocked in spring training. Have to think that even a fairly-light hitting Marlins squad can put up runs here. Phillies have the pen advantage but that's not enough to overcome everything else. Oh and also Justin Bour is expected back in the lineup for Miami. -110 seems like a steal. Even if Garcia regresses, which I don't think this is the start for it, this still will be a coin flip type of game.
Yankees/Astros u8 +100
Thought about taking the Yankees as nice-sized dogs here but will lay off. Probably a good bet though but has been bet some already. Two powerful lineups here but 2 excellent pitchers and bullpens as well. Houston's park plays to pitchers. Verlander has been filthy this year and dominated the Yankees twice last year. NYY has a very dangerous offense obviously but they are also striking out a ton lately and don't seem to be in their best form. Astros hit lefties really well last year but aren't doing so this season. Average at best vs. southpaws and Montgomery is tough to hit. This just seems like a pitcher's duel. Astros win 3-2.
Still waiting to cap KC @ BOS (Betts status), TB @ DET (Miggy status), and LAD @ ARI (Peralta status).
Lean Blue Jays +125 but passing. Jays without Donaldson and Grichuk, Twins without Buxton and most likely Sano. Gibson pitching better than he has in a while. Still not sharp but possibly better than Estrada at this point. Neither pitcher is trustworthy, but they are both facing depleted offenses. Jays have a massive pen advantage. Seems like a decent enough play but the Jays are pretty dependent on the HR lately and Gibson isn't serving up many of them so I decided to lay off.
Not even going to try to cap games where Alex Cobb is starting right now. Guy is a good pitcher, was signed really late, was good in exhibitions getting stretched out, but the late start has caused him to get absolutely killed in 3 MLB starts now. I have no idea which game the guy will return to form and it makes betting his games impossible right now. The Angels aren't hitting and I'm not sure I trust Tropeano who got a late start himself... that being said this is a game where I could see Cobb both dominating and giving up 6 runs in 3 innings... just impossible to set a number.
Lean Mariners but just got hit up 7 cents so I'm passing. Starters are about even, offenses are close, decent edge to Seattle pen. At home the price just seems cheap but line went from -113 to -120 a second ago and knocked me off a play.
Like yesterday (when it was an easy winner) I really want to hit the Rockies @ Cubs under even though the wind is blasting out. Ultimately I'll pass again. I know better than to mess with Wrigley unders when the wind is going out like this, but both offenses are sooooo bad lately. Gray and Hendricks are both above average pitchers though and both pens are above average. Hendricks gets more ground ball outs but when he gives up fly balls they go over the fence at a high rate. Was fully ready to take a shot on the Rockies but the line was right where I figured it should be. Gut said the bookies would have it at -200 but it wasn't mean to be.
My line wasn't even close here. Neither team is hitting much and the Phillies have the power advantage but that probably won't be a huge factor in this pitcher's park. The Phillies couldn't touch lefties last year and Garcia is throwing fire right now. I don't see anything that leads me to believe he's a future ace, and I fully expect him to have some starts where his control lets him down, but ultimately he's in a good form against a team that doesn't hit lefties.
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Jarlin the Marlin is throwing fire? His fastball is averaging 92-94 which is pretty close to average in MLB these days. He's looked better in the box scores than he is due to a .121 BABIP and a 99% strand rate, neither of which can be sustained. This guy is regression waiting to happen.
Jarlin the Marlin is throwing fire? His fastball is averaging 92-94 which is pretty close to average in MLB these days. He's looked better in the box scores than he is due to a .121 BABIP and a 99% strand rate, neither of which can be sustained. This guy is regression waiting to happen.
Just meant he wasn't giving up any hits. Probably could have used a better term than "throwing fire" there. Agree on regression coming, just hoping it's not today.
Also I should have added that Prado and Realmuto being back (in addition to Bour coming back today) should improve the Marlins offense. Left that out of the writeup.
Mookie Betts just ruled out for BoSox.
Bryce Harper batting leadoff for Nats is interesting.
Lean Royals/Red Sox o8 -120 and Royals +270. Sale is obviously a stud but KC has been a nice surprise against lefties this year and seems capable of scoring a few runs. Junis for KC could definitely get rocked here but he's also a talented youngster with potential. Just one of those potential plays where Boston probably wins but the line is too inflated. Betts being out for Boston helps the dog, hurts the over. Ultimately decided to lay off. Red Sox win 5-3 or 6-3 maybe.
Comments
Jake, Dodgers scratched RHill because of an infection on his middle finger. Roberts originally was gonna substitute Stewart but they decided on Stripling. This is a troubled LAD team.
Royals/Red Sox o8.5 -115
Total just seems low. Neither starter pitcher is an ace... both guys are capable of putting in quality innings but generally give up some runs. Betts out for Boston but Bogaerts is back so the lineup isn't much worse off than it has been the last few weeks. Red Sox's bats have cooled off a bit but they still have a ton of quality hitters in there. Rodriguez is pitching pretty well for Boston but KC has done a pretty good job against lefties and KC hit Rodriguez last year. Then on top of that the Royals' bullpen is always a threat to give up a bunch of runs late. Just seems half a run too low.
Phillies -140
Bour is out for the Marlins which takes away pretty much any chance they had of getting much done against Arrieta. Arrieta has a solid pen behind him. Then you have Straily for the Marlins... coming off injury, making first start after getting smacked around in 3 rehab starts. It's possible he puts in good innings here but more likely he's going to be rusty. Philly hit him hard in 4 of 5 starts last year when he was healthy. Behind Straily is a very hittable bullpen. The worry here is that Philly's offense hasn't been sharp lately and has struggled with some hittable pitchers, but I'm willing to roll the dice they get enough done against Straily here to get the win.
Really wanted the under here but can't mess with it with the wind going out nicely at Wrigley. Will take a shot on the Rockies. Neither of these teams are hitting right now. Both bullpens are above average. Lester is a better pitcher than Freeland but not 55 points better or whatever the odds indicate. Neither of these guys is a ground ball pitcher but Freeland is better at keeping the ball in the park. That could be huge today with the wind carrying pitches. Freeland has a better ground ball % and a better rate of his fly balls staying in the park. That's enough for me to try the big dog. Rockies' lineup will miss LeMahieu's godly bat against southpaws but the line is just too inflated.
Really wanted to take the Rays here but missed the line move thanks to a phone call. Blah. It might make some sense to wait on this over and I think it could go further under now that Miggy is out, but I have a busy day so just taking it now. Zimmerman can't get outs anymore and the Rays are mashing. Detroit's bullpen is better than last year but still below average. Rays should score here. Will Tigers score without Miggy? Faria is a solid pitcher but he's had some struggles on the road and hasn't been particularly sharp this year. Having control issues. Tigers should be able to get a few runs off of him and the Rays' bullpen is only average. Thinking this one gets to 10 or 11 runs.
Had Cubs -160.
I got Jays today but Twins tomorrow
He's out today, not sure on tomorrow but sounds doubtful at best he plays.
Pirates/Nats u7 +105
Seems like a good one. Nats are hitting decently enough but nothing too exciting, Rendon being out takes some pop out of their lineup. Kuhl has ace potential but doesn't see like he is there yet. That being said, he's usually decent enough and has put together back-to-back good outings after a rough spring and start to the regular season. Seems like he might be starting to pitch better. The Pirates' pen started out horribly but has been pitching much better of late. Pirates are hitting decently enough as well but Scherzer is on the mound and they might get blanked. Pirates haven't really faced many aces this season and haven't fared well against the halfway decent ones. They also haven't hit that well on the road. Of the healthy Pirates with 6 or more career at-bats against Scherzer, they have combined to get 7 hits in 55 chances... not ideal. Nats pen is solid enough. Nats win 4-1 or so.
Lean under in u9 +105 in Brewers/Reds but Reds are mashing, Homer Bailey is tough to trust, and the Reds' pen ultimately will scare me off most borderline unders involving them.
Marlins -110
My line wasn't even close here. Neither team is hitting much and the Phillies have the power advantage but that probably won't be a huge factor in this pitcher's park. The Phillies couldn't touch lefties last year and Garcia is throwing fire right now. I don't see anything that leads me to believe he's a future ace, and I fully expect him to have some starts where his control lets him down, but ultimately he's in a good form against a team that doesn't hit lefties. Then you have Eflin starting for the other side... has been awful in the majors, has been pretty awful in the minors... had one decent half season in AAA years ago and got promoted but hasn't been able to duplicate anything close to that success at any level since then. He has below average stats in the minors this year after getting rocked in spring training. Have to think that even a fairly-light hitting Marlins squad can put up runs here. Phillies have the pen advantage but that's not enough to overcome everything else. Oh and also Justin Bour is expected back in the lineup for Miami. -110 seems like a steal. Even if Garcia regresses, which I don't think this is the start for it, this still will be a coin flip type of game.
Yankees/Astros u8 +100
Thought about taking the Yankees as nice-sized dogs here but will lay off. Probably a good bet though but has been bet some already. Two powerful lineups here but 2 excellent pitchers and bullpens as well. Houston's park plays to pitchers. Verlander has been filthy this year and dominated the Yankees twice last year. NYY has a very dangerous offense obviously but they are also striking out a ton lately and don't seem to be in their best form. Astros hit lefties really well last year but aren't doing so this season. Average at best vs. southpaws and Montgomery is tough to hit. This just seems like a pitcher's duel. Astros win 3-2.
Chipping away. Rockies were oh so close. Got robbed on a few nice defensive plays in the outfield.
Lean Blue Jays +125 but passing. Jays without Donaldson and Grichuk, Twins without Buxton and most likely Sano. Gibson pitching better than he has in a while. Still not sharp but possibly better than Estrada at this point. Neither pitcher is trustworthy, but they are both facing depleted offenses. Jays have a massive pen advantage. Seems like a decent enough play but the Jays are pretty dependent on the HR lately and Gibson isn't serving up many of them so I decided to lay off.
Not even going to try to cap games where Alex Cobb is starting right now. Guy is a good pitcher, was signed really late, was good in exhibitions getting stretched out, but the late start has caused him to get absolutely killed in 3 MLB starts now. I have no idea which game the guy will return to form and it makes betting his games impossible right now. The Angels aren't hitting and I'm not sure I trust Tropeano who got a late start himself... that being said this is a game where I could see Cobb both dominating and giving up 6 runs in 3 innings... just impossible to set a number.
Lean Mariners but just got hit up 7 cents so I'm passing. Starters are about even, offenses are close, decent edge to Seattle pen. At home the price just seems cheap but line went from -113 to -120 a second ago and knocked me off a play.
Like yesterday (when it was an easy winner) I really want to hit the Rockies @ Cubs under even though the wind is blasting out. Ultimately I'll pass again. I know better than to mess with Wrigley unders when the wind is going out like this, but both offenses are sooooo bad lately. Gray and Hendricks are both above average pitchers though and both pens are above average. Hendricks gets more ground ball outs but when he gives up fly balls they go over the fence at a high rate. Was fully ready to take a shot on the Rockies but the line was right where I figured it should be. Gut said the bookies would have it at -200 but it wasn't mean to be.
Jarlin the Marlin is throwing fire? His fastball is averaging 92-94 which is pretty close to average in MLB these days. He's looked better in the box scores than he is due to a .121 BABIP and a 99% strand rate, neither of which can be sustained. This guy is regression waiting to happen.
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=18282&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2018&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=
Just meant he wasn't giving up any hits. Probably could have used a better term than "throwing fire" there. Agree on regression coming, just hoping it's not today.
Also I should have added that Prado and Realmuto being back (in addition to Bour coming back today) should improve the Marlins offense. Left that out of the writeup.
Mookie Betts just ruled out for BoSox.
Bryce Harper batting leadoff for Nats is interesting.
Weird lineup day continues as Cubs are resting some guys and using Rizzo and Bryant as the #1 and #2 batters.