Betting Talk

Proper % of bankroll per bet?

megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
edited November 2017 in Sports Betting
Is it 2% I thought I see? If I put down 5 NBA bets in a night, 2% each? What's the rule? Thanks!

Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    This answers all your questions,
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/29009-expected-value-vs-expected-growth-kelly-criterion-part-i.html#post250260

    good luck.
  • megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    Thanks a lot!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    megapowers88 wrote: »
    Is it 2% I thought I see? If I put down 5 NBA bets in a night, 2% each? What's the rule? Thanks!

    Your best option would be to bet 1.1% of BR per bet. If you feel you have an edge, you would bet somewhat higher. 2% bets would basically equate to something like a 54% bet. If you are not a 54% bettor and bet 2%, you will wipe out.

    I personally bet 1% on the average bet for rollover bets and 2% to 3% on bets I more confident in. Since the average bet for the average bettor has probably no value, the smaller the better.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    R40 wrote: »
    Your best option would be to bet 1.1% of BR per bet. If you feel you have an edge, you would bet somewhat higher. 2% bets would basically equate to something like a 54% bet. If you are not a 54% bettor and bet 2%, you will wipe out.

    I personally bet 1% on the average bet for rollover bets and 2% to 3% on bets I more confident in. Since the average bet for the average bettor has probably no value, the smaller the better.

    You too should read the article(s), linked to above.

    Ganchrow very meticously explains Kelly staking for you.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    Obi One wrote: »
    You too should read the article(s), linked to above.

    Ganchrow very meticously explains Kelly staking for you.

    Kelly is for eggheads. I would advise the betting for dummies approach. It will be far more successful in the long term.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    R40 wrote: »
    I personally bet 1% on the average bet for rollover bets and 2% to 3% on bets I more confident in. Since the average bet for the average bettor has probably no value, the smaller the better.

    Your own method is more or less a loose adaptation of the Kelly Criterion.
    R40 wrote: »
    Kelly is for eggheads.

    Wut? :wonder:
    While your explanation somewhat uses elements of the Kelly Criterion, I argued that it would be better to check Ganchrow's article(s) in the link, because he explains it meticously. If you prefer a loose -and therefore less efficient method- to do your staking, that's up to you, but please don't argue against meticulous and clear mathematical explanations of how to maximize your bankroll growth.
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    I look back and shake my head at how much I was risking when I was building myself up. I mean, I get it: you only have so much capital and you have to risk enough to get to where you need to go....however, once you are content with your bankroll size and If you want to maintain your sanity and a healthy life, you will risk far below 1%. If you are an amateur, low volume bettor, and/or are fine with the outcomes of positions determining your daily mood, be my guest and wager >1%. 1% seems humongous to me now...I remember when I thought it was such a small amount...but that is what happens to you after you go through the battles of doing this in a serious manner = You are able to more properly put risk amounts into perspective. This gig man, it never stops. You are always going to be concerned about some analyst you are incorporating or some model you are incorporating, etc. Considering this constant reality, if you are at all pressured by your risk size during a draw down -> you will make mistakes. And those mistakes will negate your profits. You just can't allow that to happen (I speak from experience). So whatever the percentage, you MUST be risking an amount that you (for lack of a better way to adequately communicate this) don't give a f%&$ about. It has to be automatic, no sweat, no big deal, place the wager & onto continued business for the day, and don't even need to check the result because it's no big deal. If you are in the slightest sweating your games/losses, it will affect you in a significant way. At least in my experience and I think most would consider myself to be a pretty tough guy psychologically...but I still maintain all types of checks on myself to make sure I stay in the correct "mental zone." Preventable mistakes just can't be allowed to happen. Winning itself is hard enough. You only get so many mistakes in this business.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    Obi One wrote: »
    Your own method is more or less a loose adaptation of the Kelly Criterion.



    Wut? :wonder:
    While your explanation somewhat uses elements of the Kelly Criterion, I argued that it would be better to check Ganchrow's article(s) in the link, because he explains it meticously. If you prefer a loose -and therefore less efficient method- to do your staking, that's up to you, but please don't argue against meticulous and clear mathematical explanations of how to maximize your bankroll growth.

    Yes. A conservative strategy based on Kelly. It will outperform Kelly in almost all instances.

    However, given the opportunity to bet the chances of an individual considering betting 2% on NBA usng Kelly, I would bet with Kelly and forgo the conservative approach.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    blackbull wrote: »
    I look back and shake my head at how much I was risking when I was building myself up. I mean, I get it: you only have so much capital and you have to risk enough to get to where you need to go....however, once you are content with your bankroll size and If you want to maintain your sanity and a healthy life, you will risk far below 1%. If you are an amateur, low volume bettor, and/or are fine with the outcomes of positions determining your daily mood, be my guest and wager >1%. 1% seems humongous to me now...I remember when I thought it was such a small amount...but that is what happens to you after you go through the battles of doing this in a serious manner = You are able to more properly put risk amounts into perspective. This gig man, it never stops. You are always going to be concerned about some analyst you are incorporating or some model you are incorporating, etc. Considering this constant reality, if you are at all pressured by your risk size during a draw down -> you will make mistakes. And those mistakes will negate your profits. You just can't allow that to happen (I speak from experience). So whatever the percentage, you MUST be risking an amount that you (for lack of a better way to adequately communicate this) don't give a f%&$ about. It has to be automatic, no sweat, no big deal, place the wager & onto continued business for the day, and don't even need to check the result because it's no big deal. If you are in the slightest sweating your games/losses, it will affect you in a significant way. At least in my experience and I think most would consider myself to be a pretty tough guy psychologically...but I still maintain all types of checks on myself to make sure I stay in the correct "mental zone." Preventable mistakes just can't be allowed to happen. Winning itself is hard enough. You only get so many mistakes in this business.

    True enough. However, almost all bettors are action bettors and betting 1% impossible for them because they cannot get their fix. Betting less than 1% require high betting volume.

    The best advise for almost any bettor is to bet as little as it takes to get your rush but that is at least $250 for most.

    I try to lead a person in the right direction and consider an appropriate betting amount but I have seen time and time again those who will agree to this and bust out on the forums almost immediately.

    Most bettors have in their head an amount they have to bet. Once that amount is set, it cannot be reduced.
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