Rubio Puerto Rico thesis
paddyboy111
Senior Member
The Puerto Rican republican primary is on Sunday March 6th and Rubio is at -230 online. I would put him more at -2000.
The territory has no polls, and the history of caucus and primary voting has shown them (along with all other territories) to be super establishment focused, with no name recognition for any other candidates. Rubio is a known name and face on the island bc he is the leading hispanic and caribbean politicain in the country and he is from nearby Florida. The local leaders have endorsed him and none have endorsed anyone else. Trump will be a name people know but only to hate on him for his comments about immigrants and spanish-speaking people.
Most importantly Rubio is the establishment candidate. To give you an idea of how relevant this is, have a look at the previous PR results:
2012: Romney won 83%, Santorum 8%, Gingrich 2%, Paul 1%. So this was an establishment candidate result despite the fact Romney wasnt yet running away with it. Santorum was the only catholic running which explains his 8%. Rubio is the only Catholic running this year. At the time Romney was up like 35%-25%-15%-15%.
2008: they held a caucus not a primary. It was very early in February, and they lined up behind establishment favorite McCain with 90%, Huckabee 5%, Paul 4% at the time McCain was up 50% to 30% over Huckabee.
2004: They cancelled the primary because GWB was unopposed.
2000: GWB was the establishment candidate and they held a very early priamry. He won 94% to 5% over McCain. At the time GWB was up about 55%-35% over McCain nationally.
In summary the last 3 times they voted Republican they went over 80% for the establishment candidate. They gave McCain 5% when he wasnt the establishment favorite and 90% when he was. Rubio also is Catholic, Hispanic, Floridian: this is the Puerto Rican Obama (although he's of Cuban heritage)
Candidates dont waste their money on TV advertising to the 3% of the viewing public who shows up at republican primaries. They pay attention to who is the establishment guy.
Two counter-theses:
1. Trump is the leader, maybe PRs just vote for front-runners not establishment candidates. Yes, but more than 70% of hispanics nationwide have a *very* unfavorable view of him. With another 10% having an "unfavorable" view of him.
2. Rubio had a question about PR in the debate the other day that indicated he would take a hard line on PR. Yes but the party endorsements came after that debate and there was no PR backlash in their newspaper headlines after the debate.
My prediction:
80% Rubio, 5% Cruz, 5% Carson, 5% Kasich, 10% Trump.
The territory has no polls, and the history of caucus and primary voting has shown them (along with all other territories) to be super establishment focused, with no name recognition for any other candidates. Rubio is a known name and face on the island bc he is the leading hispanic and caribbean politicain in the country and he is from nearby Florida. The local leaders have endorsed him and none have endorsed anyone else. Trump will be a name people know but only to hate on him for his comments about immigrants and spanish-speaking people.
Most importantly Rubio is the establishment candidate. To give you an idea of how relevant this is, have a look at the previous PR results:
2012: Romney won 83%, Santorum 8%, Gingrich 2%, Paul 1%. So this was an establishment candidate result despite the fact Romney wasnt yet running away with it. Santorum was the only catholic running which explains his 8%. Rubio is the only Catholic running this year. At the time Romney was up like 35%-25%-15%-15%.
2008: they held a caucus not a primary. It was very early in February, and they lined up behind establishment favorite McCain with 90%, Huckabee 5%, Paul 4% at the time McCain was up 50% to 30% over Huckabee.
2004: They cancelled the primary because GWB was unopposed.
2000: GWB was the establishment candidate and they held a very early priamry. He won 94% to 5% over McCain. At the time GWB was up about 55%-35% over McCain nationally.
In summary the last 3 times they voted Republican they went over 80% for the establishment candidate. They gave McCain 5% when he wasnt the establishment favorite and 90% when he was. Rubio also is Catholic, Hispanic, Floridian: this is the Puerto Rican Obama (although he's of Cuban heritage)
Candidates dont waste their money on TV advertising to the 3% of the viewing public who shows up at republican primaries. They pay attention to who is the establishment guy.
Two counter-theses:
1. Trump is the leader, maybe PRs just vote for front-runners not establishment candidates. Yes, but more than 70% of hispanics nationwide have a *very* unfavorable view of him. With another 10% having an "unfavorable" view of him.
2. Rubio had a question about PR in the debate the other day that indicated he would take a hard line on PR. Yes but the party endorsements came after that debate and there was no PR backlash in their newspaper headlines after the debate.
My prediction:
80% Rubio, 5% Cruz, 5% Carson, 5% Kasich, 10% Trump.
Comments
pretty much nobody is booking that bet...