Betting Talk

Is the powerball plus EV?

golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
edited January 2016 in Sports Betting
Is the powerball plus EV? Odds of winning are about 1 in 290 million. Cost per ticket is 2$. The drawing Saturday night is estimated to be 700 million plus to the winner.

I'm feeling good about this bet lol! Talk about some variance

Comments

  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    I read somewhere that the odds of winning were 1 and 290 million. I just did some quick math and that number seems way to low.

    I thought powerball was 5 numbers drawn (1:64 odds on each of those 5.
    And 1 powerball drawn (1:26 odds on that ball).

    Is this correct ?
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    If so, it would be like 1 and 2.7 billion odds of winning. Still -EV big time. I don't know why all these places online are saying odds are 1:290 million. Unless I don't know how the game is actually played. I never play it.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2016
    I'm sure someone less lazy and who remembers statistics 101 will give you the exact math, but one flaw in your math is that you're not calculating the chance of each # correctly b/c you can't have duplicate #'s. Only the first ball drawn is 1 out of 65. Only 64 possibilities for the next, then 63, etc.

    Here's a Powerball article from fivethirtyeight.com you may find interesting...

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-powerball-odds-could-give-america-its-first-billion-dollar-jackpot/
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2016
    Another flaw if that you're talking about it like you'd get $700 million handed to you if you win. Keep in mind that the cash value of the $428 million, and that's pre-tax. For taxes, you'd be in the 39.6% tax bracket, and then may or may not owe state taxes depending on where you live. So if you did win the jackpot, at max it would be 258.5 million. And then that assumes that you're the only one winning it, whereas you very well could be splitting this jackpot with others. (and on the flip side of the EV calculations, you'd have to figure in the EV of winning all of the other prizes that aren't the grand prize)
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    TommyL wrote: »
    Another flaw if that you're talking about it like you'd get $700 million handed to you if you win. Keep in mind that the cash value of the $428 million, and that's pre-tax. For taxes, you'd be in the 39.6% tax bracket, and then may or may not owe state taxes depending on where you live. So if you did win the jackpot, at max it would be 258.5 million. And then that assumes that you're the only one winning it, whereas you very well could be splitting this jackpot with others. (and on the flip side of the EV calculations, you'd have to figure in the EV of winning all of the other prizes that aren't the grand prize)

    Good point. Forgot about Uncle Sam and the possibility of splitting it.

    I don't play the lotto so I really don't even know how it all works. I may buy 20$ worth of tickets on Saturday for the heck of it.
  • Pepper BrooksPepper Brooks Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    When the pot gets really high and the number of players increase, you have to factor in the probability that there will be more than 1 winning ticket, which means splitting the pot 2 or more ways.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    it's like betting into a -300/-300 line
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    the fever is crazy to witness... stop to grab a soda this morning and its unreal the traffic in the convenient stores for tickets. chasing a worse chance than to be struck by lightening...
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2016
    newcombe wrote: »
    chasing a worse chance than to be struck by lightening...

    My house was hit by lightning... does that make me more likely to win? :)
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Goats wrote: »
    My house was hit by lightning... does that make me more likely to win? :)

    now in that case Goats, you better purchase a few tickets my friend :)... destiny is calling! i will buy a few i'm sure... its worth the thrill of waiting for the numbers to be called even if i get goose egged again.
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    not something you want to win, it will ruin your life, money is not everything
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    yea i would hate to win... life would essentially be over. rather be dead broke and happy :)...
  • DubbsDubbs Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Goats wrote: »
    My house was hit by lightning... does that make me more likely to win? :)

    In that case it gives you less of a chance to win, because there's no chance someone could be struck by lightning, AND win Powerball!
  • TortugaTortuga Moderator
    edited January 2016
    Goats wrote: »
    My house was hit by lightning... does that make me more likely to win? :)

    But have you been attacked by a shark? If so, might as well go all in.
  • dtrain11dtrain11 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Dubbs wrote: »
    In that case it gives you less of a chance to win, because there's no chance someone could be struck by lightning, AND win Powerball!

    Aren't these two independent events like a spin on the roulette wheel ;)
  • bobbyputnambobbyputnam Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    My favorite line is..."mega millions is 15 million, that's not even worth playing"
  • capthookcapthook Banned
    edited January 2016
    This is the stupidest thing ever. Love how these joke lotteries are so publicized. Yet, we "free" Americans can't play online poker or bet sports, two things which require actual SKILL.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2016
    Goats wrote: »
    My house was hit by lightning... does that make me more likely to win? :)

    No. I'd need to hear something even less likely...like say, the Eagles winning a Super Bowl.
Sign In or Register to comment.