Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 16
underwraps
Senior Member
Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 16
Heres a look at how sharps are betting thus far in the penultimate week of NFL action.
WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA:
This could be a heavily bet game by kickoff because its important and families will be ready for some NFL football after a busy Christmas! The opener of Philadelphia -3 hasnt budged. Sharps are less likely to keep stubbornly endorsing the Eagles given last Sundays very poor result vs. Arizona. Some syndicates dont trust Washington on the road though, so there might be some Wise Guy investments in the Eagles on the key number. The three is so huge in the NFL (particularly in important games between evenly matched sides) that the bulk of Sharps will likely fade any move off the key number. The Over/Under is down in some spots from 48.5 to 47.5. If the weather forecasts get interesting, that could drop.
SUNDAY
NY GIANTS AT MINNESOTA:
Dont forget that this one has been time changed to prime time on NBC. The first game listed on the Sunday schedule is actually the last one thats going to be played! Minnesota opened at -6.5. Sharps have been closely watching the news on Adrian Petersons ankle. Hes such a big factor for the Vikings that his confirmed health (if it ever gets confirmed in time) will strongly influence the Sharps. Dog lovers might take flyers on the Giants at the key number of +7 even if Peterson is given a green light. Note that its going to be very cold for this one with a high in the teens. See if game day weather influences Over/Under betting.
CHICAGO AT TAMPA BAY:
Meaningless game. The opener of Tampa Bay -2.5 was bet up to the key number of three. Not much interest in the Bears yet for a buy back. Nothing recent from Chicago would inspire Sharp money on them. This isnt expected to be a heavily bet game. Not much happening yet on the Over/Under.
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA:
This ones drawing a lot of attention because Carolina is still undefeated, and the opposing divisional home underdog has revenge off a recent blowout loss. The opener of Carolina -7 has been bet down to Atlanta +6.5. More than a few Sharps think this is the spot where Carolina could fall. If the public backs the undefeated favorite, well see a tug-of-war just below the key number.
DALLAS AT BUFFALO:
Another meaningless game. News that Kellen Moore would get the start at quarterback for Dallas inspired some Under money. The total is down from 44 to 42.5. A chance of rain and temperatures in the mid 40s. Shouldnt affect a quarterback who thrived in college ball at Boise State! That Buffalo defense sure could affect him though. Buffalo opened at -6.5. More Dallas money than Bills money so far so its mostly Dallas +6 on the board right now.
JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ORLEANS: Everyones waiting for word on Drew Brees. Hes either going to play with a torn muscle in his foot, or hes going to sit out. Nothings going to happen until his status is pinned down. This wont be a heavily bet game when it goes up on the board since its meaningless for both teams. Sharps do have a number in mind for the backup and will correct any misguided openers.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DETROIT:
Big move here on Detroit from -7.5 to -10. Sharps were impressed with their effort in New Orleans this past Monday night. Plus, the Niners are just playing out the string with a bad, jet-lagged team. Thats obviously a big move to begin with. And, it moved AWAY from the key number of seven at the outset, which is even more telling. Of course, Sharps loved Detroit against the Rams recently and took a big hit.
CLEVELAND AT KANSAS CITY: Interesting move here on the Browns. The opener of Kansas City -13 has been bet down to -11. If youre only casually scoreboard watching of late, that might not make sense to you. But, if you read the boxscores, you know that Kansas Citys been winning with very ugly stats recently. Quants believe -11 is the better line once you account for that and the likelihood of poor weather. Looks like a rainy, windy day in the mid 30s is on tap, making it harder for a favorite to win a blowout. The total is down from 44 to 42.5 on that weather report.
INDIANAPOLIS AT MIAMI:
Miami has been bet up from -1 to -2.5. Andrew Luck is still out for the Colts and theyve been playing horribly without him. Basically, we have two of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of recent form squaring off here. Sharps would rather have the host at the cheap price. This wont be a heavily bet game. Sharps playing basic strategy teasers will at least look at Indianapolis +8.5 because the six-point move would cross both the 3 and the 7. (Though, they may not have another game to pair it with!)
NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS:
The Patriots opened at -3. It takes a lot of money to move off the three in the NFL, as you regulars know. More New England money has been coming in on the key number causing a few spots to test -3.5. This is likely to be the most heavily bet early kick on Sunday. Its likely well see a tug-of-war just above the key number. Though, all the squares who have been winning with New England lately may come in so hard before kickoff that the four comes into play. Sharps will fade public money on the favorite over the key number. Nothing happening on the total yet but watch the weather here. Chance for rain. And, even middling winds can cause issues at this site.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE:
Another spot where everyone was waiting on quarterback news. Brian Hoyer is still waiting to be cleared for action after his concussion. Plus he has an ankle issue. As I write this, hes questionable. If he cant go, then Brandon Weeden gets the start. He did lead the Texans to a road win at Indy last week. A line of Texans by 5 has been bet down to 4.
GREEN BAY AT ARIZONA:
This will be a heavily bet game because its the showcase matchup of the day AND has almost an exclusive TV window in the second session. Almost everyone in the country will be watching this game! Such a great matchup too, as a potential playoff preview. Nothing happening yet to push the game off the opener of Arizona -4.5. The quants arent that enamored of Green Bay lately because the offense is still struggling to move the ball. Theyve been fortunate to score easy points in recent covers vs. Dallas and Oakland. Arizona generally gets strong support at home but Sharps and squares alike took a bath with that approach when the hosted Minnesota. From what Im hearing we have different factions biding their time. Sharps liking Arizona are waiting to see if Packer money brings the four into play. Dog lovers are hoping they can get at least +5 before betting. Definitely a market chess match worth monitoring on game day. Quants have pushed the total up a point from 49.5 to 50.5.
ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE:
Dog and Under support in a divisional rivalry game that will probably be played in wet weather. Openers of Seattle -13.5 and 42 are down to -12.5 and 40.5. Note that St. Louis is also getting a boost from playing on a Thursday night. Extra rest for a revenge-minded team with a good defense. Sharps like it when they see that kind of combination. Squares may keep riding Seattle though, because theyve been getting rich doing so! We might see a strong tug-of-war Sunday just because there are only two games scheduled for that late TV window.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE:
Baltimore fell so hard vs. Kansas City last week that Pittsburgh opened -9.5 and got pushed up to -10. Hard to imagine for this series given its intensity in recent years. But, the Ravens are shorthanded, and just playing out the string. Pittsburgh must win to stay well-positioned for the Wildcard tie-breaker. Squares will pay a premium if they want to bet that must-win angle. Remember that this has been time-changed to an early kick.
MONDAY NIGHT
CINCINNATI AT DENVER:
Such a tough game to bet! Sharps have decided Under is the right way to go given A.J. McCarron getting the start for Cincinnati against Brock Osweiler. Tough to trust either quarterback to shine vs. a quality defense and these are quality defenses. The opener of 42 is down to 40.5 Weather is in the mix as well because temperatures will be in the 30s. Nothing happening yet on the team side opener of Denver -3.5. Its at least telling that Sharps didnt take the hook with the dog right away. We can deduce, for now, that Sharps dont love the Bengals or the key number would have come into play quickly. The market may not make up its mind until game day.
Heres a look at how sharps are betting thus far in the penultimate week of NFL action.
WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA:
This could be a heavily bet game by kickoff because its important and families will be ready for some NFL football after a busy Christmas! The opener of Philadelphia -3 hasnt budged. Sharps are less likely to keep stubbornly endorsing the Eagles given last Sundays very poor result vs. Arizona. Some syndicates dont trust Washington on the road though, so there might be some Wise Guy investments in the Eagles on the key number. The three is so huge in the NFL (particularly in important games between evenly matched sides) that the bulk of Sharps will likely fade any move off the key number. The Over/Under is down in some spots from 48.5 to 47.5. If the weather forecasts get interesting, that could drop.
SUNDAY
NY GIANTS AT MINNESOTA:
Dont forget that this one has been time changed to prime time on NBC. The first game listed on the Sunday schedule is actually the last one thats going to be played! Minnesota opened at -6.5. Sharps have been closely watching the news on Adrian Petersons ankle. Hes such a big factor for the Vikings that his confirmed health (if it ever gets confirmed in time) will strongly influence the Sharps. Dog lovers might take flyers on the Giants at the key number of +7 even if Peterson is given a green light. Note that its going to be very cold for this one with a high in the teens. See if game day weather influences Over/Under betting.
CHICAGO AT TAMPA BAY:
Meaningless game. The opener of Tampa Bay -2.5 was bet up to the key number of three. Not much interest in the Bears yet for a buy back. Nothing recent from Chicago would inspire Sharp money on them. This isnt expected to be a heavily bet game. Not much happening yet on the Over/Under.
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA:
This ones drawing a lot of attention because Carolina is still undefeated, and the opposing divisional home underdog has revenge off a recent blowout loss. The opener of Carolina -7 has been bet down to Atlanta +6.5. More than a few Sharps think this is the spot where Carolina could fall. If the public backs the undefeated favorite, well see a tug-of-war just below the key number.
DALLAS AT BUFFALO:
Another meaningless game. News that Kellen Moore would get the start at quarterback for Dallas inspired some Under money. The total is down from 44 to 42.5. A chance of rain and temperatures in the mid 40s. Shouldnt affect a quarterback who thrived in college ball at Boise State! That Buffalo defense sure could affect him though. Buffalo opened at -6.5. More Dallas money than Bills money so far so its mostly Dallas +6 on the board right now.
JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ORLEANS: Everyones waiting for word on Drew Brees. Hes either going to play with a torn muscle in his foot, or hes going to sit out. Nothings going to happen until his status is pinned down. This wont be a heavily bet game when it goes up on the board since its meaningless for both teams. Sharps do have a number in mind for the backup and will correct any misguided openers.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DETROIT:
Big move here on Detroit from -7.5 to -10. Sharps were impressed with their effort in New Orleans this past Monday night. Plus, the Niners are just playing out the string with a bad, jet-lagged team. Thats obviously a big move to begin with. And, it moved AWAY from the key number of seven at the outset, which is even more telling. Of course, Sharps loved Detroit against the Rams recently and took a big hit.
CLEVELAND AT KANSAS CITY: Interesting move here on the Browns. The opener of Kansas City -13 has been bet down to -11. If youre only casually scoreboard watching of late, that might not make sense to you. But, if you read the boxscores, you know that Kansas Citys been winning with very ugly stats recently. Quants believe -11 is the better line once you account for that and the likelihood of poor weather. Looks like a rainy, windy day in the mid 30s is on tap, making it harder for a favorite to win a blowout. The total is down from 44 to 42.5 on that weather report.
INDIANAPOLIS AT MIAMI:
Miami has been bet up from -1 to -2.5. Andrew Luck is still out for the Colts and theyve been playing horribly without him. Basically, we have two of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of recent form squaring off here. Sharps would rather have the host at the cheap price. This wont be a heavily bet game. Sharps playing basic strategy teasers will at least look at Indianapolis +8.5 because the six-point move would cross both the 3 and the 7. (Though, they may not have another game to pair it with!)
NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS:
The Patriots opened at -3. It takes a lot of money to move off the three in the NFL, as you regulars know. More New England money has been coming in on the key number causing a few spots to test -3.5. This is likely to be the most heavily bet early kick on Sunday. Its likely well see a tug-of-war just above the key number. Though, all the squares who have been winning with New England lately may come in so hard before kickoff that the four comes into play. Sharps will fade public money on the favorite over the key number. Nothing happening on the total yet but watch the weather here. Chance for rain. And, even middling winds can cause issues at this site.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE:
Another spot where everyone was waiting on quarterback news. Brian Hoyer is still waiting to be cleared for action after his concussion. Plus he has an ankle issue. As I write this, hes questionable. If he cant go, then Brandon Weeden gets the start. He did lead the Texans to a road win at Indy last week. A line of Texans by 5 has been bet down to 4.
GREEN BAY AT ARIZONA:
This will be a heavily bet game because its the showcase matchup of the day AND has almost an exclusive TV window in the second session. Almost everyone in the country will be watching this game! Such a great matchup too, as a potential playoff preview. Nothing happening yet to push the game off the opener of Arizona -4.5. The quants arent that enamored of Green Bay lately because the offense is still struggling to move the ball. Theyve been fortunate to score easy points in recent covers vs. Dallas and Oakland. Arizona generally gets strong support at home but Sharps and squares alike took a bath with that approach when the hosted Minnesota. From what Im hearing we have different factions biding their time. Sharps liking Arizona are waiting to see if Packer money brings the four into play. Dog lovers are hoping they can get at least +5 before betting. Definitely a market chess match worth monitoring on game day. Quants have pushed the total up a point from 49.5 to 50.5.
ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE:
Dog and Under support in a divisional rivalry game that will probably be played in wet weather. Openers of Seattle -13.5 and 42 are down to -12.5 and 40.5. Note that St. Louis is also getting a boost from playing on a Thursday night. Extra rest for a revenge-minded team with a good defense. Sharps like it when they see that kind of combination. Squares may keep riding Seattle though, because theyve been getting rich doing so! We might see a strong tug-of-war Sunday just because there are only two games scheduled for that late TV window.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE:
Baltimore fell so hard vs. Kansas City last week that Pittsburgh opened -9.5 and got pushed up to -10. Hard to imagine for this series given its intensity in recent years. But, the Ravens are shorthanded, and just playing out the string. Pittsburgh must win to stay well-positioned for the Wildcard tie-breaker. Squares will pay a premium if they want to bet that must-win angle. Remember that this has been time-changed to an early kick.
MONDAY NIGHT
CINCINNATI AT DENVER:
Such a tough game to bet! Sharps have decided Under is the right way to go given A.J. McCarron getting the start for Cincinnati against Brock Osweiler. Tough to trust either quarterback to shine vs. a quality defense and these are quality defenses. The opener of 42 is down to 40.5 Weather is in the mix as well because temperatures will be in the 30s. Nothing happening yet on the team side opener of Denver -3.5. Its at least telling that Sharps didnt take the hook with the dog right away. We can deduce, for now, that Sharps dont love the Bengals or the key number would have come into play quickly. The market may not make up its mind until game day.