Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 10
underwraps
Senior Member
Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 10
Every NFL team has now played at least half of its 2016 schedule. The market is fairly confident of its read on all 32 teams. Major moves in the market from this point forward will largely be connected to major injuries or unique situational dynamics that pop up from time to time.
Lets see how Sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the Week 10 card. The four teams with byes this week are Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, and San Francisco.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY:
The tall opener of Green Bay -12 has dropped down a half a point. Detroit is coming in fresh off a bye and a management house cleaning. Green Bay has a potent attack that enters the game off consecutive losses. Old school Sharps who like taking every double digit dog figured +12 was the best they were going to see given Green Bays slump. Well see how the public bets over the weekend. Squares are more likely to lay a big number with a team on a roll (like New England) than a team that just lost a couple of big TV games. The Over/Under is up from an opener of 48 to 49. Its going to be a balmy 55 degrees for this November kick in Green Bay. Weather isnt expected to be an issue over most of the weekend card.
DALLAS AT TAMPA BAY:
Not much betting interest here because Sharps dont trust the Dallas backup quarterbacks or Jameis Winston of Tampa Bay. An opener of Tampa Bay -1 has been bet up to -1.5 or -2 depending on the store. In that price range, Dallas will be a popular choice in two-team teasers where the six-point move will cross both the three and the seven. Dallas is coming off a tough overtime loss in a Sunday nighter. Will that eventually inspire some weekend steam on the ugly home favorite?
CAROLINA AT TENNESSEE:
Carolina opened at -6.5. The home dog is getting a look from Sharps because they played so well at New Orleans last week after a coaching change and because Carolina is coming off three straight high profile victories (Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Green Bay). Situational guys like the Titans. But, the number has only dropped to +5.5 so there hasnt really been a bandwagon effect. The Over/Under of 42.5 is up to 44 because Marcos Mariota moved the ball so well last week, and Carolinas defense has been showing signs of fatigue late in recent games.
CHICAGO AT ST. LOUIS:
St. Louis is painted at -7 as I write this. They opened on the key number then spent some time over the key number until Chicago impressed Monday night in San Diego. Im guessing well stay on the seven through the weekend. Any public move in either direction would likely be pushed back to the key number by the Wise g
Guys. Sharp teaser players would like to see the Rams move to -7.5 so they can play St. Louis -1.5 in two-teamers.
NEW ORLEANS AT WASHINGTON:
The market is trying to decide between pick-em and New Orleans -1. The Saints were starting to get some respect until they lost to lowly Tennessee last week. Washington continues to be a mediocrity thats difficult to trust. Not sensing a lot of passion here. We may have a soft tug-of-war between those prices from small betting segments looking for value. The New Orleans shouldnt be favored on the road over anybody faction will take Washington +1, while the How can Drew Brees be pick-em vs. Kirk Cousins faction will take the Saints to win straight up.
MIAMI AT PHILADELPHIA:
Nothing happening on the team side, where Philadelphia is still -6. Barring any surprises, Id expect Sharps to fade any public moves off the six. The total has moved up from 47 to 49 because Miami has opened things up offensively just as Philadelphias offense is starting to find some balance. Miami played to 50 in Buffalo last week while Philadelphia was at 54 at the end of regulation in Dallas.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH:
Pittsburgh is getting some support, as an opener of -4.5 is up to -5 (some stores testing -5.5). Were in that quiet space between key numbers and its a quarterback battle of Johnny Manziel vs. Landry Jones. That takes much of the luster off the game, and keeps it from being something the general public would flock to. Not really a lot this week on the early card that will get the publics juices flowing.
JACKSONVILLE AT BALTIMORE:
Same story here in terms of being a yawner between the critical numbers. Baltimore opened at -6. Jacksonville money dropped that to Jaguars +5.5. The big news here is on the Over/Under where an opener of 50 has come down to 47.5 Weather isnt currently expected to be a factor. So, thats a quant move. Baltimore had a bye last week, so there may be an expectation from quants that a fresher Ravens defense will create more of a smash mouth game.
MINNESOTA AT OAKLAND:
Moving to the late starts we have our first look at potential weather. Theres some rain in the forecast To this point, that weather hasnt affected the line though. Oakland is still 3 and 44. Oddsmakers correctly anticipated Oakland interest from Sharps and priced against it from the outset. Home field advantage is worth three points so the market is rating these teams as even despite the fact that Oakland is 4-4 and Minnesota is 6-2.
KANSAS CITY AT DENVER:
The situational guys really like Kansas City here. The Chiefs are coming in off a bye week and have revenge from an early season home game they choked away in the final seconds. Plus, Denver finally showed some mortality last week in a loss at Indianapolis. The opener of Denver -7 was bet down to KC +6. Some stores are testing +5.5 because Chiefs money keeps coming in. Will the public take Denver over the weekend? Squares lost huge on Denver last week because they thought Indy would be exhausted off a Monday night overtime game. The public may not want to go down that road again.
NEW ENGLAND AT NY GIANTS:
We have a tug-of-war shaping up between New England -7 and the NY Giants +7.5. Its easy to like the Patriots at the key number because they keep rolling over people. And, the public has shown theyll ride the Tom Brady bandwagon in prior years where this kind of streak has happened. But situational guys like the Giants as a home dog because Tom Coughlin has shown his defenses can disrupt Brady and because Eli Manning is a quarterback who can cover clean or come through the back door in garbage time. Any time New England is at -7.5 Sharp teaser players will include the Pats at -1.5 in their teasers.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:
The opener of Seattle -3.5 was bet down to the key number of three. Arizona is very respected in Sharp circles (perhaps too much)and this is seen as a statement spot for the up-and-comer in the NFC West. The public does like betting Seattle at cheap prices though. That could set up a tug-of-war through the day Sunday where squares lay the field goal but Sharps take the dog with the hook. I expect this to be a very heavily bet game because the daytime card isnt particularly loaded and this is a high profile divisional matchup that could also be a playoff preview. Theres currently a slight chance for rain. If that chance increases or if the rain is going to be hard, I would expect the total of 45 to come down at least a point.
MONDAY NIGHT
HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI:
Houston is getting respect off a bye week, as the opening line of +12 is down to +10.5. The old school guys who like all double digit dogs really like taking a refreshened visitor against a possibly flat home favorite. The public is more likely to take the undefeated host that just won for them over Cleveland. Well have to wait until Monday to see what dynamic that creates in the marketplace.
Every NFL team has now played at least half of its 2016 schedule. The market is fairly confident of its read on all 32 teams. Major moves in the market from this point forward will largely be connected to major injuries or unique situational dynamics that pop up from time to time.
Lets see how Sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the Week 10 card. The four teams with byes this week are Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, and San Francisco.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY:
The tall opener of Green Bay -12 has dropped down a half a point. Detroit is coming in fresh off a bye and a management house cleaning. Green Bay has a potent attack that enters the game off consecutive losses. Old school Sharps who like taking every double digit dog figured +12 was the best they were going to see given Green Bays slump. Well see how the public bets over the weekend. Squares are more likely to lay a big number with a team on a roll (like New England) than a team that just lost a couple of big TV games. The Over/Under is up from an opener of 48 to 49. Its going to be a balmy 55 degrees for this November kick in Green Bay. Weather isnt expected to be an issue over most of the weekend card.
DALLAS AT TAMPA BAY:
Not much betting interest here because Sharps dont trust the Dallas backup quarterbacks or Jameis Winston of Tampa Bay. An opener of Tampa Bay -1 has been bet up to -1.5 or -2 depending on the store. In that price range, Dallas will be a popular choice in two-team teasers where the six-point move will cross both the three and the seven. Dallas is coming off a tough overtime loss in a Sunday nighter. Will that eventually inspire some weekend steam on the ugly home favorite?
CAROLINA AT TENNESSEE:
Carolina opened at -6.5. The home dog is getting a look from Sharps because they played so well at New Orleans last week after a coaching change and because Carolina is coming off three straight high profile victories (Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Green Bay). Situational guys like the Titans. But, the number has only dropped to +5.5 so there hasnt really been a bandwagon effect. The Over/Under of 42.5 is up to 44 because Marcos Mariota moved the ball so well last week, and Carolinas defense has been showing signs of fatigue late in recent games.
CHICAGO AT ST. LOUIS:
St. Louis is painted at -7 as I write this. They opened on the key number then spent some time over the key number until Chicago impressed Monday night in San Diego. Im guessing well stay on the seven through the weekend. Any public move in either direction would likely be pushed back to the key number by the Wise g
Guys. Sharp teaser players would like to see the Rams move to -7.5 so they can play St. Louis -1.5 in two-teamers.
NEW ORLEANS AT WASHINGTON:
The market is trying to decide between pick-em and New Orleans -1. The Saints were starting to get some respect until they lost to lowly Tennessee last week. Washington continues to be a mediocrity thats difficult to trust. Not sensing a lot of passion here. We may have a soft tug-of-war between those prices from small betting segments looking for value. The New Orleans shouldnt be favored on the road over anybody faction will take Washington +1, while the How can Drew Brees be pick-em vs. Kirk Cousins faction will take the Saints to win straight up.
MIAMI AT PHILADELPHIA:
Nothing happening on the team side, where Philadelphia is still -6. Barring any surprises, Id expect Sharps to fade any public moves off the six. The total has moved up from 47 to 49 because Miami has opened things up offensively just as Philadelphias offense is starting to find some balance. Miami played to 50 in Buffalo last week while Philadelphia was at 54 at the end of regulation in Dallas.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH:
Pittsburgh is getting some support, as an opener of -4.5 is up to -5 (some stores testing -5.5). Were in that quiet space between key numbers and its a quarterback battle of Johnny Manziel vs. Landry Jones. That takes much of the luster off the game, and keeps it from being something the general public would flock to. Not really a lot this week on the early card that will get the publics juices flowing.
JACKSONVILLE AT BALTIMORE:
Same story here in terms of being a yawner between the critical numbers. Baltimore opened at -6. Jacksonville money dropped that to Jaguars +5.5. The big news here is on the Over/Under where an opener of 50 has come down to 47.5 Weather isnt currently expected to be a factor. So, thats a quant move. Baltimore had a bye last week, so there may be an expectation from quants that a fresher Ravens defense will create more of a smash mouth game.
MINNESOTA AT OAKLAND:
Moving to the late starts we have our first look at potential weather. Theres some rain in the forecast To this point, that weather hasnt affected the line though. Oakland is still 3 and 44. Oddsmakers correctly anticipated Oakland interest from Sharps and priced against it from the outset. Home field advantage is worth three points so the market is rating these teams as even despite the fact that Oakland is 4-4 and Minnesota is 6-2.
KANSAS CITY AT DENVER:
The situational guys really like Kansas City here. The Chiefs are coming in off a bye week and have revenge from an early season home game they choked away in the final seconds. Plus, Denver finally showed some mortality last week in a loss at Indianapolis. The opener of Denver -7 was bet down to KC +6. Some stores are testing +5.5 because Chiefs money keeps coming in. Will the public take Denver over the weekend? Squares lost huge on Denver last week because they thought Indy would be exhausted off a Monday night overtime game. The public may not want to go down that road again.
NEW ENGLAND AT NY GIANTS:
We have a tug-of-war shaping up between New England -7 and the NY Giants +7.5. Its easy to like the Patriots at the key number because they keep rolling over people. And, the public has shown theyll ride the Tom Brady bandwagon in prior years where this kind of streak has happened. But situational guys like the Giants as a home dog because Tom Coughlin has shown his defenses can disrupt Brady and because Eli Manning is a quarterback who can cover clean or come through the back door in garbage time. Any time New England is at -7.5 Sharp teaser players will include the Pats at -1.5 in their teasers.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:
The opener of Seattle -3.5 was bet down to the key number of three. Arizona is very respected in Sharp circles (perhaps too much)and this is seen as a statement spot for the up-and-comer in the NFC West. The public does like betting Seattle at cheap prices though. That could set up a tug-of-war through the day Sunday where squares lay the field goal but Sharps take the dog with the hook. I expect this to be a very heavily bet game because the daytime card isnt particularly loaded and this is a high profile divisional matchup that could also be a playoff preview. Theres currently a slight chance for rain. If that chance increases or if the rain is going to be hard, I would expect the total of 45 to come down at least a point.
MONDAY NIGHT
HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI:
Houston is getting respect off a bye week, as the opening line of +12 is down to +10.5. The old school guys who like all double digit dogs really like taking a refreshened visitor against a possibly flat home favorite. The public is more likely to take the undefeated host that just won for them over Cleveland. Well have to wait until Monday to see what dynamic that creates in the marketplace.
Comments
Thanks
I suppose, theoretically, a bettor might value the rise in win chance stemming from a line increase from -7 to -7.5 more than they'd fear the loss of push frequency teasing to -1.5 instead of -1. That's all I can think of.
You can tell him here @vsm_baccellieri on twitter hoes... better yet I will tell him you said so and link him to you
Ok, but why? Ever occur to you it would just hurt his feelings?
Sharps don't have rules like that; anyone betting "every double digit dog" isn't sharp.
Or "Sharps don’t trust the Dallas backup quarterbacks or Jameis Winston of Tampa Bay." I don't know who this guy is to think he can speak for all sharps, or any of them, but it's tremendously pretentious and deluded of him. And wtf does "trust" have to do with anything? What does that even mean? It's just babble. If you think a QB sucks and can't be "trusted" then you bet against him in which case ... you're trusting him to suck. WTF, it's moronic semantics.
I could go on, but I'm busy. Have a nice day.
I just copy and paste it from some email I get and the email isn't even from him and he is the original author.
The report is just his opinionated view of each Sunday in the NFL and I post it here because people like to read it. I doubt anyone follows it religiously. And frankly I could care less who he speaks for or what he says.
BTW.. very nice record you have on twitter. keep up the good work :thumbup2:
There def seem to be people here who like to read it, so it's cool to post it. There are plenty of newsletters out there that I like to read sometimes, and I don't even know why, lol. Probably we're all just such sports betting junkies that we read anything sports betting related.
I'm not selling anything there. In fact I'm anti-selling. Just providing picks, for free, for real. But, whatever.