83% winners

Dave Mason

Attention grabbing headline.
The leader of the Westgate Super Contest was 4-0 yesterday ( Chic tonight.......kiss of death)
and is now hitting an unbelievable 83% . I've never followed, so I have no history on winning percentages within the contest
but I have to believe that this is way up there.
Now I could be an asshole & begin to wager on his picks & quickly get him to 50% but I'll let him enjoy the ride

TommyL

Dave Mason wrote: »

Attention grabbing headline.
The leader of the Westgate Super Contest was 4-0 yesterday ( Chic tonight.......kiss of death)
and is now hitting an unbelievable 83% . I've never followed, so I have no history on winning percentages within the contest
but I have to believe that this is way up there.
Now I could be an asshole & begin to wager on his picks & quickly get him to 50% but I'll let him enjoy the ride

Based on the 1727 entries and a 53% chance of winning each game (thought that's fair when playing against stale lines, but maybe it's a little off), there is about a 6.5% chance that you'll have someone at 35-7 thru 42 games. Really good, but could very well just be some statistical noise/positive variance for him. And keep in mind that even if you did tail him, he's playing against stale lines and you're not. I'd certainly recommend against it.

Obi One

Given the size of the field, winning the Supercontest is more about luck than about ability at the moment. Some lucky guy will have variance on his side and he will win it.

Dave Mason

I would be very happy with a 63% lucky year