Breeders Cup
StevieY
Senior Handicapper
Not sure how many I will be able to put up here, but I like one to start the day,
Keen Race #1
#2 Officer Griffin (#3 Bump Start was my biggest worry and he is being bet down)
Keen Race #1
#2 Officer Griffin (#3 Bump Start was my biggest worry and he is being bet down)
Comments
#8 One Go All Go
Smaller(played them about a quarter of the above play)
#6 King of New York
#12 Paid Admission
I thought this race may have my favorite play of the card but my horse has been bet down. If the #3 Race Day is 5-1 or better(or a heavy 9/2), I'm playing him. Sitting 9/2 right now but closer to going to 4-1 than 5-1 right now.
i had a little on him, he was a spot play so i have some on them no matter what odds.
Like last race, my horse has taken a lot of action. Was hoping to get 9-1 or better on the #7 Ray's the Bar(ML 20-1). He is currently 6-1. Two horses that have benefited odds wise from some of the action is the #11 Hollywood Don up to 24-1 and the #14 Hit it a Bomb up to 7-1. I will play all three small, and put a little more on the #7 if he moves back up.
This race is a bomb race in my pick 4, I played them all, so that tells you what I think of this race.
Nice catch on the 14
Looking to play a Pick 3 and also looking at the 1 & 7 in the 7th Good start W/#14 16.40 keep it going
Edit: Among others of course
Going to be tough to beat Liam's Map. I'm going to ignore the myth and follow the truth. In races with an expected hot pace, the winner of the speed offers more value than the closers. Closers get overbet in those races. Everyone can see it and ignore the early horses. No one will ignore Liam's Map obviously, but they are ignoring Bradester. I'm going with the #2 Bradester. My pick 4 has the 2, the #3 Liam's Map, and the #5 Lea. You have to draw a line somewhere on your exotics, especially in a race with such a big favorite(if you include him). The 1 Red vine is my worry outside of some bomb picking up the pieces.
To Tough
Wide open race and one that will test the publics "class" capping. Just because a race is listed at a higher "class" level doesnt make it a stronger race. Harmonize is coming out of a Grade 3 race that was weaker than the MSW race Pricedtoperfection came out of(by a lot). You see that more in 2 yr old races than older races. Odds are making most of my pick 4 horses playable for something.
#4 Catch a Glimpse
Small
#11 Pricedtoperfection
#14 Last Waltz
My pick 4 has the #3 Alice Springs who I thought I would have a little win bet on but got played down, 4,11,14
Was hoping for better odds on the #1 I'm a Chatterbox, but she got hit hard. Didn't play it as deep as I probably should have in the pick 4, so I will hope for my bomb.
Small play
#10 Yahilwa.
Got the 1, 7 Wedding Toast, and the 10 to finish off the pick 4.
If it wasn't for a couple belmont races and Laurel race 6 where I crushed the #10 for Martin and wheeled the 10 hard in Exactas I would of had a losing day. Yeah Liam's Map is a Gorilla got trapped twice and once he broke free he came like a freight train.
I try to never overreact to small samples of how tracks are playing, drives me nuts after 2 races someone says "there's a speed bias". Yeah, or regression is coming. However, those first two turf races, the 6th race you mentioned, and the race earlier with One Go All Go, it looked like a tiring turf course. One Go All Go wasn't pressed, got an easy lead, and just dies mid stretch. The 6th race, the two front horses pushed each other a little harder than they needed to but not a killing pace, and they just died mid-stretch as well. After watching those two races, thought Catch a Glimpse was going to do the same thing but she battled like a champ. Then I told myself that's why you don't overreact to two races dumbass.
Was a good day overall, especially for my spot plays, so far, 13 left.
Steve, take a look at race 2 in belmont today. OC 62k The 4 ran with that horse you liked above and gets J. Castellano today. The trainer is a little iffy, but I like the idea he has NO price Tag on him along with the #1 which also has no claim tag today. Linda Rice trains the #1 and Angel Cruz is back from Remington to NY. In the first race Rice and Cruz combine for owner Barry Schwartz who doesn't like to lose. He used to own so many horses back in the Day with Hushion and rode Migliore all the time. I like the early double here 1 with 1-4
Haven't checked it yet, will do so in a few minutes.
#7 Recount
Really don't like the 2nd race much. The 6 is rightfully the ML fav, the 7 is solid as well. I would need a little more than the current 7/2 ML on the 4 in that one. In race 1, I have 2 spot plays, the 8 luckybuck Syndrome and the 2 silent Glory.
Edit: shame we couldn't click in the first race would of had the DD good
#1 Pure Sensation
I saw half the people on TVG picked him as well so it is probably dead. The #14 Mongolian Saturday is an interesting horse. I have him on my pick 4 but the post position is brutal for a short turf race. He has speed inside him as well so he will have to be much the best to win. All things being equal, he would have a great shot in this one. I was hoping he would be completely ignored on the board.
Think the 8 Dacita and 3 Legatissimo are standouts at low odds but I have a spot play in this one.
Small
#5 Photo Call
Have the 2,3,5,8,9 to finish off the pick 4 so the 5 would be nice.
Spread deep in this race with my pick 4, the favs with some longhsots. Play a few longshots small
Small
#5 Cocked and Loaded
#6 Rated R Superstar
#10 Ralis