Dr Bob release....
RightAngle
Admin
He tried something really interesting today. He released one side for 1*, and then came back on the opposite side for 3* at a better line. It's something we've thought about trying for a while with RAS but never have.
Teams and lines edited out.
Interested in hearing everyone's thoughts on it.
From Dr Bob:
Those on Text are aware that I released the opposite side of my (team edited out) 2-Star as a 1-Star on (team edited out) +XX or more ONLY. Then I released (team edited out) at -XX for 3-Stars.
I realize it's confusing but I have got to find a way to keep these guys from automatically moving the line instantly on my plays and this could help down the line. I realize there may be people that got (team edited out) at +XX for 1-Star and maybe didn't get -XX or -XX coming back the other way for 3-Stars but I figure if you can get down quick enough to get the first bet in then you are likely to be quick enough to get the real bet in at a better line.
That's also why I indicated +XX or more ONLY in the first text, so people wouldn't bet (team edited out) at +XX when I knew I was coming back with (team edited out).
I know some of you may hate this idea but these line moves are killing my business and hurting my current clients and if I can find a way to make them hesitate on instantly moving the line then I'm willing to try it.
(team edited out) is a 2-Star Best Bet at -XXor less and 1-Star up to -XX if you didn't follow along with the Texts today. Hopefully, those that did use the text service got +XX for 1-Star one way and -XX for 3-Stars the other way, which was the intent. Obviously, I'm open to feedback on this move. Plus, as you may notice this line has settle at -XX, which is also a lot better than what it might have moved to had I simply texted out (team edited out) -XX for 2-Stars.
Teams and lines edited out.
Interested in hearing everyone's thoughts on it.
From Dr Bob:
Those on Text are aware that I released the opposite side of my (team edited out) 2-Star as a 1-Star on (team edited out) +XX or more ONLY. Then I released (team edited out) at -XX for 3-Stars.
I realize it's confusing but I have got to find a way to keep these guys from automatically moving the line instantly on my plays and this could help down the line. I realize there may be people that got (team edited out) at +XX for 1-Star and maybe didn't get -XX or -XX coming back the other way for 3-Stars but I figure if you can get down quick enough to get the first bet in then you are likely to be quick enough to get the real bet in at a better line.
That's also why I indicated +XX or more ONLY in the first text, so people wouldn't bet (team edited out) at +XX when I knew I was coming back with (team edited out).
I know some of you may hate this idea but these line moves are killing my business and hurting my current clients and if I can find a way to make them hesitate on instantly moving the line then I'm willing to try it.
(team edited out) is a 2-Star Best Bet at -XXor less and 1-Star up to -XX if you didn't follow along with the Texts today. Hopefully, those that did use the text service got +XX for 1-Star one way and -XX for 3-Stars the other way, which was the intent. Obviously, I'm open to feedback on this move. Plus, as you may notice this line has settle at -XX, which is also a lot better than what it might have moved to had I simply texted out (team edited out) -XX for 2-Stars.
Comments
Would your players actually play the first ( wrong ) play ? We would have to or books would catch on and not move based on your release alone.
Point is we need people to massacre the screen on the wrong side, how would this component work ?
If we did it, we'd give people a heads up. For example: 5 total plays - one of first three will be played opposite. Then people could adjust limits and account usage accordingly on those first three releases.
The goal wouldn't really be to get a better line on one particular release, but to slow down and limit how much lines move on releases in general.
if the books are fast enough to beat too many people on the original move, wouldnt they be fast enough to beat people on any subsequent move as well? would the books hesitate to move or would they just move both sides very fast knowing we too dont know which one to lay off?
are the books moving lines based on some scraping software or some guy doing it manually? if its software, maybe theres a way you can mix up the text on releases to throw off the software? picture files? add some unrelated text so its not always the same format?
someone else suggested this before, but if the moves are software based what about a dial in number where you release the plays on conference call? that may not work for everyone but i thought it was creative.
i actually dont have a problem getting the lines, but in general i would be open to trying different ideas just to make them work to keep up.
On a different note, it would be helpful if you split up your totals release rather than hitting them with 6 plays in succession.
I think most people are trying to get down as much as possible on your releases. Don't see how they'd be able to get down enough coming back to not lose ev.
I agree with some of this. However this years cfb service was only 1700$. That being said, people don't have to risk as much to make up for the cost of the service. I like the idea in general. I do know some people might not be able to get down enough or could have credit restraints.
My first thought was how many times will this get by before the books just take released games off the board until a few minutes before start.
That is never happening
Definitely a great idea though. Probably makes the most sense doing this around key numbers.
I have seen quite a few locals take the games off the board at release time. Put them back up after the lines adjust. It would not surprise me at all to see them take them off when they catch wind of this.
Yes for a few minutes, he said take them off till game time. So they gonna start not dealing lines from tuesday till saturday?
Sunday night, and every day up to game day as plays warrant
Dr Bob doesn't bet and has no idea what the betting market consists of, so I don't think the idea is either a good one or one that will work for ras.
There is nothing easy when trying to get down on released numbers unless you are dealing with idiots that just don't care. This would just further complicate the issue and create potential problems
I would tend to agree with this.
How abut start releasing some of those last cut games and weight them at 0.5 units have about 4-6 of them. Release those games first. The 2-3 games that you really like or want to try for a better number in the mix of your 0.5 unit plays release the opposite side then release the right side near the end of your released picks and weight these picks at 1.5 or 2.0 units. I don't think it is going to matter with the small weight, books are still going to insta move 2pts (totals) during the normal release schedule. I don't think books are going to insta move 4pts (totals) on those 1.5 or 2.0 unit plays but should move the normal 2pts and at least on your best picks it should be no problem for players to at least be able to get that original number. I think it is important to have quite a few 0.5 weight picks so no one can no what is real and what is not. Maybe decrease the time between picks to 60-90 seconds so that the whole release don't take a long time with all the extra picks.
The potential benefits far outweigh the risks. And for people who aren't max betting there is zero risk.