lessons from NFL week 1
mgmhatesme
Member
share any if you have any...
Monday night was a huge victory for all the sports books. First time NFL coaches were 3-0 this weekend - element of surprise perhaps. Alarm bells were going off on both games for me last night, but I was too dense, too overconfident in my prior leans that may have been shaped too much by media/outside influences.
I think the Eagles came out flat and potentially looked ahead to Dallas week 2... they were dominated in 1st half and then dominated 2nd half. Game could have gone either way at the end. Will not adjust ratings from these teams, although actually Atlanta may be a bit overrated going into week 2 coming off a high profile win.
49ers showed quite a bit. Tomsula, OC Geep Chryst and DC Mangini did an amazing coaching job. Really liked how they moved Kaepernick around and the dominant power run game with essentially 3 TE alignments kept the Vikings on heels all game. Bridgewater showed off his popgun arm. Throws balloons, does not have the arm strength to drive the ball... is accurate when he has time, but SF did a great job of mixing up pressure and Bridgewater never was comfortable enough to get his timing down. Placed a stupidly large wager at Caesars on this and I should have had doubts when they accepted it so quick... almost like they were welcoming action on the Vikes. This game really hurt me.
I miscapped 3 games terribly - 49ers/Vikes, total on Sea/Stl game - special teams scores and up tempo styles, Oak - loss of starting QB didnt help, but CIN was on fire. CIN really has a great running game and enough on D to cause issues. I am not a fan of Dalton but they game plan around him enough.
Buffalo looked great, looking forward to the matchup against NE this weekend. I think Tyrod Taylor really helps this team and they have a good thing going with that D, Taylor, Watkins and McCoy.
Chicago surprised and kept it close with the red zone efficiency by Packers and ineffeciency by Chi the main difference in the game. Cutler looked different until the end of the game when he made a big mistake.
Carolina I think was more fortunate than surprising, I am not adjusting them up.
Mariota sure looks great in TEN. Sleeper DFS consideration moving forward. Winston predictably made mistakes. I think both TEN and TB are over teams to consider based on the aggressive play.
Hou may be better with Mallet at QB. Certainly when Foster returns, I think this team will have some value.
Cle, I dont think will be competitive with Manziel and the surrounding cast on offense is very poor. There defense is decent, but I dont think enough to overcome, looks like a tough year in Cleveland.
Monday night was a huge victory for all the sports books. First time NFL coaches were 3-0 this weekend - element of surprise perhaps. Alarm bells were going off on both games for me last night, but I was too dense, too overconfident in my prior leans that may have been shaped too much by media/outside influences.
I think the Eagles came out flat and potentially looked ahead to Dallas week 2... they were dominated in 1st half and then dominated 2nd half. Game could have gone either way at the end. Will not adjust ratings from these teams, although actually Atlanta may be a bit overrated going into week 2 coming off a high profile win.
49ers showed quite a bit. Tomsula, OC Geep Chryst and DC Mangini did an amazing coaching job. Really liked how they moved Kaepernick around and the dominant power run game with essentially 3 TE alignments kept the Vikings on heels all game. Bridgewater showed off his popgun arm. Throws balloons, does not have the arm strength to drive the ball... is accurate when he has time, but SF did a great job of mixing up pressure and Bridgewater never was comfortable enough to get his timing down. Placed a stupidly large wager at Caesars on this and I should have had doubts when they accepted it so quick... almost like they were welcoming action on the Vikes. This game really hurt me.
I miscapped 3 games terribly - 49ers/Vikes, total on Sea/Stl game - special teams scores and up tempo styles, Oak - loss of starting QB didnt help, but CIN was on fire. CIN really has a great running game and enough on D to cause issues. I am not a fan of Dalton but they game plan around him enough.
Buffalo looked great, looking forward to the matchup against NE this weekend. I think Tyrod Taylor really helps this team and they have a good thing going with that D, Taylor, Watkins and McCoy.
Chicago surprised and kept it close with the red zone efficiency by Packers and ineffeciency by Chi the main difference in the game. Cutler looked different until the end of the game when he made a big mistake.
Carolina I think was more fortunate than surprising, I am not adjusting them up.
Mariota sure looks great in TEN. Sleeper DFS consideration moving forward. Winston predictably made mistakes. I think both TEN and TB are over teams to consider based on the aggressive play.
Hou may be better with Mallet at QB. Certainly when Foster returns, I think this team will have some value.
Cle, I dont think will be competitive with Manziel and the surrounding cast on offense is very poor. There defense is decent, but I dont think enough to overcome, looks like a tough year in Cleveland.
Comments
Good obs MGM, but the above puzzles me. Bill O'brien is an alleged QB guru. Hoyer was his guy following preseason beat out of Mallet. Understandably, replaces Hoyer in 2nd half in blowout loss. You know how replacements go. Their success is usually aided by prevents and garbage time. For Coach O'brien not to rename Hoyer his starter, even as a pacifier shows his greenness. Controversy not good here.
Regarding the upcoming game... On the other side of the ball, Peyton is showing a real lack of mobility / arm strength that has made him such a liability (relative to what he was) in the postseason the last 2 years. I expect Kubiak to want to run the ball quite a bit. KC was more susceptible to the run last year, but they have a ferocious pass rush that will give Peyton problems. KC I think also trends to a conservative offense... Alex Smith was the lowest QB last year in terms of Avg yards per attempt... the addition of Maclin and development/usage of Kelce is helpful, but they still have to go against a very good D. I think its an under game unless there are big defensive returns for TDs. KC usually dominant at home of course so I feel better about them... think how Peyton looked has really caused a lot of money to jump on KC early and the under here already.
I have him ranked 20th on avg according to my figures
Last 3 gm pass att 38.0 ranks 9th
Last 16 gm pass att 30.9 ranks 26th
Red zone attempts 4.3 ranks 18th
Yds per pass attempt 7.1 ranks 26th
Cant find the specific information on this I remember here, apologize if mistaken. When I look now, I get 26th at YPA, and further down for YPC. I had him at, or perhaps within 1-2 players, of the bottom in NFL last year in terms of Yards per attempt for full time starters. It may have been an adjusted yards per attempt (or even yards per completion) metric from an NFL insider article I was reading, that adjusted for some since forgotten factor.
Thanks for the clarification
was at the game and they were still throwing the ball and taking shots in the 3rd Qtr. and the Texans D came up with some stops. 4th Qtr. they definitely went conservative to try and bleed clock.
yes, thats exactly what I do.
1. Set the lines what I think they will be (not what I think they should be) after the prior games on Sunday... usually do this during Sun night game or Monday at work... and I make sure not to look at lines already so I dont have bias.
2. Update the list of underrated / overrated teams each week.
3. Find areas where my lines differ and try to understand why or if there is an opportunity
4. Consider match ups/injuries/coaching
5. Consider motivational situations - primarily look-ahead games... where they are playing a non-divisional opponent and next week play a division game. Extra consideration given for prime time game the next week. Other factors like revenge from last year or embarassed last week esp on prime time, etc.
On the sides, I was off in the following games:
- a few lines were off from -1.5 to -2.5 etc... but thats not too significant so I dont look at that as much... likewise from 4.5 to 5.5 is pretty much the same... ill only mention some key numbers
- Had NE as a 2.5pt favorite over Buff, opened as a pick em. Unfortunately, I liked Buffalo here... I was thinking about how Indy was just favored by this amount when I made the line. Both teams looked good in wins.
- Had MIN as only a -1pt favorite over DET (compared to -3), they did not look good against SF.
- had STL as only a -2.5 favorite over Wash (compared to -3, -125), but forgot about the Desean injury when I did it... and also chance Gurley plays for STL and they get Tre Mason back. Again was thinking to last week when Mia opened at -2.5 at Wash
- Had GB at -3, compared to -3.5
- Had Indy at -6, compared to -7... didnt think Indy looked too good, but I made mistake here... people were going to back Luck on primetime
- I didnt set the lines for Balt/Oak due to starting QB Carr, also didnt set for SF/PITT simply because i overlooked it
- On totals, biggest difference I had KC/DEN set at 44 (42)... Det/Min 45 (43)... Arz/Chi 48 (45)
NFL most of the time works in reverse of what the subconscious comes up with