NFL week 1 thoughts / discussion
mgmhatesme
Member
My picks generally boil down based on a list of teams I consider underrated and overrated that I continually update. Motivation factors such as looking ahead to a divisional game next week, etc.. I think are important for Oct and Nov only for the midseason doldrums. Picks to come later during early portion of week 1, just some thoughts below and open to discussion. Lines from bookmaker as of 8/25.
GB -6.5 at CHI, 50: Notable injury/suspensions: Jordy Nelson and Jay Ratliff... line did not adjust. GB has done well against CHI. New CHI DC Fangio has a history of doing pretty good against GB/Rodgers. Too many unknowns for Chi with the new staff and change to 3-4 D. GB was my Super bowl favorite before Nelson injury... still might be. But away against a division rival, first game for the new coach... think the closing line settles here. NO PLAY.
KC +1.5 at HOU, 41. Notable injury/suspensions: Arian Foster, monitor KC OL Eric Fisher and Jeff Allen, NT Dontari Poe. Line went down to a pick with Arian Foster injury and then back to 1.5. HOU was going to be a play for me prior to the Foster injury. KC QB Smith last year shortest Avg yard per attempt in NFL, has not had a good preseason. HOU QB Hoyer average as well. KC had some problems defending the run last year and HOU may be able to take advantage esp if Poe is out. I am a big fan of Bill OBrien and not because of Hard Knocks... think he is a solid, underrated coach. HOU D could take some strides this year with added contributions from Wilfork and Clowney. Potential pick of HOU at home here.
CLE +3 at NYJ, 40.5. Notable injury/suspensions: Geno Smith, Sheldon Richardson... monitor Muhammed Wilkerson. NYJ were shaping up as a nice play... already made a small wager on NYJ at -2.5. Both defenses should fare well in this one. CLE QB McCown has had an awful preseason and career except for his time under Trestman in Chicago. NYJ weapons on offense superior, QB Fitzgerald an adequate game mgr. Still expect a low scoring game with NYJ coming out on top at home. Potential pick of NYJ -3, even... but I do not like it as much as I had earlier. Also considering the Under, with the secondaries of both teams shutting down the pass and a likely conservative game plan from both teams.
IND -2.5 at BUF, 46.5. Monitor health of McCoy. Monitor Bills starting QB, expecting Tyrod Taylor. Expect Bills DL to dominate Colts OL, which has looked shaky in preseason. But Luck one of few QBs to excel despite pressure... Colts weapons are certainly great. Too many unknowns with Bills opening under new coach at home. Bills will want to run the ball and keep it out of Lucks hands, Colts D has been susceptible, see last years playoff game against NE and not many changes. PASS.
MIA -3, at WAS, 43.5, Made a small play on MIA at -2.5. Value got sucked out of this a bit after RGIII horrible preseason. Think this could be a disaster year for WAS along with QB carousel. MIA underrated I think, although unfortunately I dont think anyone is overrating WAS here. MIA DL should dominate WAS OL. RGIII should get battered and continue to make sloppy plays. Tannehill and Miami offense should be able to make passing plays against a shaky WAS secondary. MIA -3 looks to be a good play to me.
CAR -3 at JAX, 41. Notable injuries: Kelvin Benjamin, JAX DE Fowler. Monitor health of C Kalil and DT Lulelei, JAX DT Marks, TE Thomas, S Cyprien. Line adjusted from -4 to -3 after Benjamin injury. Still believe this has value for an underrated JAX team against an overrated CAR team. Think CAR a bit overrated from winning division last 2 years. CAR Defense was not the same last year and riding on reputation from 2013. QB Cam Newton inaccurate, saved last year by throwing to Benjamin and Olsen... as well as his rushing. He still has OL woes and I will take the gamble that Funchess does not make the same plays Benjamin did. JAX underrated based on last few years clouding judgement. Underrated weapons on offense for JAX, although yet to see Yeldon play in NFL, should play week 3 preseason. JAX Defense gets a solid boost from FA DT Oldrick return of LB Posluszny from injury. No respect for JAX, and +3 at home looks to be a pick for me.
SEA -3.5 at STL, 43. Monitor health of STL RB Gurley, SEA S Chancellor, Thomas. Line has creeped a bit from -3. STL DL should dominate a SEA OL that has had some issues in preseason and weakened a bit with departure of C Unger. STL offense uncertain with health of RB Gurley and how QB Foles adjusts to a different offense. STL typically plays SEA pretty tough. Considered STL at +3.5 at home (or first half), but not sold as thinking SEA could also steamroll in 2nd half as well if game plan gets away from STL. STL a little too reliant on dominating D and special teams returns. likely PASS, although this could change if SEA is minus both safeties and Gurley is a go for STL.
N.O. +2.5/3 at ARZ, 47. ARZ G Iupati to miss game. RT Massie suspended, monitor health of WR Floyd. ARZ HC Arians one of the best, although may miss former DC Bowles a bit. N.O. may be a bit more run-heavy following loss of TE Graham and a couple WRs. N.O. D unimpressive. I feel Arizona will be overrated this year based on recent success, but not sure N.O. is underrated here. PASS.
DET +2.5 at SD, 45.5. Monitor health of DET NT Ngata, DT Reid, G Warford, note SD TE Gates suspended. I don't have DET defense as falling apart based on loss of Suh, although having Ngata available for this game certainly would help. More focus was paid to robbing of DAL Bryant non-catch in playoffs, but DET should have beaten DAL a week earlier except for poor ref calls. DET feels underrated in this spot to me, and I don't consider a team to look past week 1 even though they are away, out of conference and have a divisional matchup at MIN in week 2. SD been playing a bit over their heads based on gritty QB Rivers. Could be an OVER play if QB Rivers steps up and forces a shoot out, but may be safer to play DET +2.5. May be better options unless this hits +3.
TEN +3 at TB, 42. Notable injury of TB OT Dotson, TEN CB McCourty. I expect an aggressive gameplan based on QB tendencies and perhaps a desire by player and organization to make a statement regarding the #1 and #2 overall picks from the draft. Poor TB OL coupled with an aggressive mentality from Winston, could cause big plays in both directions. Thought Winston was horrible in preseason week 1 and great in week 2... Mariota good in both except for 2 poor plays from him in first game. TEN has a more solid team overall... and I think the TB cover 2 defense is a bit over simplistic for this day and age... and TB does not have the exceptional talent on defense to overcome. TEN +3 and over 42 both look good to me. Considering a parlay, but the over would also serve as a hedge if independent wagers.
CIN -3/-3.5 at OAK, 44. Total seems a bit high with the running tendencies of CIN OC Hue Jackson. OAK could be underrated and perhaps CIN overrated although shouldnt be much with preseason play and lack of postseason success from QB Dalton. Think OAK will be improved considerably this year. Unsure, but considering OAK +3.5 and/or Under 44.
BAL +4 at DEN, 51. DEN DL Wolfe suspended. BAL a bit unknown with loss of Kubiak and new OC Trestman used to a different offense. Pressure of OC Trestman to call more runs than what he has been used to may cause issues. DEN QB Manning a tough read... has he in fact lost arm strength or was it simply a function of last year's quad injury? Total seems high based on both teams seemingly wanting to establish the run a bit more. Lose some explosiveness with replacement of DEN TE Thomas with Daniels. DEN D looks pretty dominant in preseason. Not sold on BAL WRs. Made a small play at under 52 earlier... Under 51 looks pretty good here.
NYG +5.5 at DAL, 50. Monitor health of NYG DE JPP, LB Beason, safeties. DAL has a few sneaky front seven players on D, but they are questionable in secondary. NYG played them tough last year in both games. As long as WRs Cruz and Randle are healthy to join Beckham, NYG should be able to challenge DAL defense deep. NYG defense hurt and unreliable prior to injuries. Cannot consider DAL underrated based on the offseason hype; does not fit a good side bet to me. OVER 50 looks pretty good.
PHI -1 at ATL, 53. Surprised PHI is not favored by more, I expect this line to creep to 2.5 as the Chip Kelly hype train rolls on. Perhaps warranted though... surprisingly talented D to couple with a high octane offense... I dont actually consider them overrated here despite the Chip Kelly hype. Not a fan of the Atlanta D. Eagles -1 and/or potentially the over 53 as Atlanta offense will make some plays also.
MIN PICK at SF, 41.5. Horrible offseason for SF has been well documented but it doesnt feel discounted enough for me. QB Kaepernick has not proven he can work without HC Harbaugh. MIN rolling in preseason on both sides of the ball. MIN RB Peterson primed to make a statement and QB Bridgewater really looking good. MIN looks like a great pick here.
Will add notes later for injuries I missed or new ones that come. This took too much time honestly, but hopefully encourages some discussion over the next couple of weeks. Will be in Vegas for week 1.
Good luck all-
GB -6.5 at CHI, 50: Notable injury/suspensions: Jordy Nelson and Jay Ratliff... line did not adjust. GB has done well against CHI. New CHI DC Fangio has a history of doing pretty good against GB/Rodgers. Too many unknowns for Chi with the new staff and change to 3-4 D. GB was my Super bowl favorite before Nelson injury... still might be. But away against a division rival, first game for the new coach... think the closing line settles here. NO PLAY.
KC +1.5 at HOU, 41. Notable injury/suspensions: Arian Foster, monitor KC OL Eric Fisher and Jeff Allen, NT Dontari Poe. Line went down to a pick with Arian Foster injury and then back to 1.5. HOU was going to be a play for me prior to the Foster injury. KC QB Smith last year shortest Avg yard per attempt in NFL, has not had a good preseason. HOU QB Hoyer average as well. KC had some problems defending the run last year and HOU may be able to take advantage esp if Poe is out. I am a big fan of Bill OBrien and not because of Hard Knocks... think he is a solid, underrated coach. HOU D could take some strides this year with added contributions from Wilfork and Clowney. Potential pick of HOU at home here.
CLE +3 at NYJ, 40.5. Notable injury/suspensions: Geno Smith, Sheldon Richardson... monitor Muhammed Wilkerson. NYJ were shaping up as a nice play... already made a small wager on NYJ at -2.5. Both defenses should fare well in this one. CLE QB McCown has had an awful preseason and career except for his time under Trestman in Chicago. NYJ weapons on offense superior, QB Fitzgerald an adequate game mgr. Still expect a low scoring game with NYJ coming out on top at home. Potential pick of NYJ -3, even... but I do not like it as much as I had earlier. Also considering the Under, with the secondaries of both teams shutting down the pass and a likely conservative game plan from both teams.
IND -2.5 at BUF, 46.5. Monitor health of McCoy. Monitor Bills starting QB, expecting Tyrod Taylor. Expect Bills DL to dominate Colts OL, which has looked shaky in preseason. But Luck one of few QBs to excel despite pressure... Colts weapons are certainly great. Too many unknowns with Bills opening under new coach at home. Bills will want to run the ball and keep it out of Lucks hands, Colts D has been susceptible, see last years playoff game against NE and not many changes. PASS.
MIA -3, at WAS, 43.5, Made a small play on MIA at -2.5. Value got sucked out of this a bit after RGIII horrible preseason. Think this could be a disaster year for WAS along with QB carousel. MIA underrated I think, although unfortunately I dont think anyone is overrating WAS here. MIA DL should dominate WAS OL. RGIII should get battered and continue to make sloppy plays. Tannehill and Miami offense should be able to make passing plays against a shaky WAS secondary. MIA -3 looks to be a good play to me.
CAR -3 at JAX, 41. Notable injuries: Kelvin Benjamin, JAX DE Fowler. Monitor health of C Kalil and DT Lulelei, JAX DT Marks, TE Thomas, S Cyprien. Line adjusted from -4 to -3 after Benjamin injury. Still believe this has value for an underrated JAX team against an overrated CAR team. Think CAR a bit overrated from winning division last 2 years. CAR Defense was not the same last year and riding on reputation from 2013. QB Cam Newton inaccurate, saved last year by throwing to Benjamin and Olsen... as well as his rushing. He still has OL woes and I will take the gamble that Funchess does not make the same plays Benjamin did. JAX underrated based on last few years clouding judgement. Underrated weapons on offense for JAX, although yet to see Yeldon play in NFL, should play week 3 preseason. JAX Defense gets a solid boost from FA DT Oldrick return of LB Posluszny from injury. No respect for JAX, and +3 at home looks to be a pick for me.
SEA -3.5 at STL, 43. Monitor health of STL RB Gurley, SEA S Chancellor, Thomas. Line has creeped a bit from -3. STL DL should dominate a SEA OL that has had some issues in preseason and weakened a bit with departure of C Unger. STL offense uncertain with health of RB Gurley and how QB Foles adjusts to a different offense. STL typically plays SEA pretty tough. Considered STL at +3.5 at home (or first half), but not sold as thinking SEA could also steamroll in 2nd half as well if game plan gets away from STL. STL a little too reliant on dominating D and special teams returns. likely PASS, although this could change if SEA is minus both safeties and Gurley is a go for STL.
N.O. +2.5/3 at ARZ, 47. ARZ G Iupati to miss game. RT Massie suspended, monitor health of WR Floyd. ARZ HC Arians one of the best, although may miss former DC Bowles a bit. N.O. may be a bit more run-heavy following loss of TE Graham and a couple WRs. N.O. D unimpressive. I feel Arizona will be overrated this year based on recent success, but not sure N.O. is underrated here. PASS.
DET +2.5 at SD, 45.5. Monitor health of DET NT Ngata, DT Reid, G Warford, note SD TE Gates suspended. I don't have DET defense as falling apart based on loss of Suh, although having Ngata available for this game certainly would help. More focus was paid to robbing of DAL Bryant non-catch in playoffs, but DET should have beaten DAL a week earlier except for poor ref calls. DET feels underrated in this spot to me, and I don't consider a team to look past week 1 even though they are away, out of conference and have a divisional matchup at MIN in week 2. SD been playing a bit over their heads based on gritty QB Rivers. Could be an OVER play if QB Rivers steps up and forces a shoot out, but may be safer to play DET +2.5. May be better options unless this hits +3.
TEN +3 at TB, 42. Notable injury of TB OT Dotson, TEN CB McCourty. I expect an aggressive gameplan based on QB tendencies and perhaps a desire by player and organization to make a statement regarding the #1 and #2 overall picks from the draft. Poor TB OL coupled with an aggressive mentality from Winston, could cause big plays in both directions. Thought Winston was horrible in preseason week 1 and great in week 2... Mariota good in both except for 2 poor plays from him in first game. TEN has a more solid team overall... and I think the TB cover 2 defense is a bit over simplistic for this day and age... and TB does not have the exceptional talent on defense to overcome. TEN +3 and over 42 both look good to me. Considering a parlay, but the over would also serve as a hedge if independent wagers.
CIN -3/-3.5 at OAK, 44. Total seems a bit high with the running tendencies of CIN OC Hue Jackson. OAK could be underrated and perhaps CIN overrated although shouldnt be much with preseason play and lack of postseason success from QB Dalton. Think OAK will be improved considerably this year. Unsure, but considering OAK +3.5 and/or Under 44.
BAL +4 at DEN, 51. DEN DL Wolfe suspended. BAL a bit unknown with loss of Kubiak and new OC Trestman used to a different offense. Pressure of OC Trestman to call more runs than what he has been used to may cause issues. DEN QB Manning a tough read... has he in fact lost arm strength or was it simply a function of last year's quad injury? Total seems high based on both teams seemingly wanting to establish the run a bit more. Lose some explosiveness with replacement of DEN TE Thomas with Daniels. DEN D looks pretty dominant in preseason. Not sold on BAL WRs. Made a small play at under 52 earlier... Under 51 looks pretty good here.
NYG +5.5 at DAL, 50. Monitor health of NYG DE JPP, LB Beason, safeties. DAL has a few sneaky front seven players on D, but they are questionable in secondary. NYG played them tough last year in both games. As long as WRs Cruz and Randle are healthy to join Beckham, NYG should be able to challenge DAL defense deep. NYG defense hurt and unreliable prior to injuries. Cannot consider DAL underrated based on the offseason hype; does not fit a good side bet to me. OVER 50 looks pretty good.
PHI -1 at ATL, 53. Surprised PHI is not favored by more, I expect this line to creep to 2.5 as the Chip Kelly hype train rolls on. Perhaps warranted though... surprisingly talented D to couple with a high octane offense... I dont actually consider them overrated here despite the Chip Kelly hype. Not a fan of the Atlanta D. Eagles -1 and/or potentially the over 53 as Atlanta offense will make some plays also.
MIN PICK at SF, 41.5. Horrible offseason for SF has been well documented but it doesnt feel discounted enough for me. QB Kaepernick has not proven he can work without HC Harbaugh. MIN rolling in preseason on both sides of the ball. MIN RB Peterson primed to make a statement and QB Bridgewater really looking good. MIN looks like a great pick here.
Will add notes later for injuries I missed or new ones that come. This took too much time honestly, but hopefully encourages some discussion over the next couple of weeks. Will be in Vegas for week 1.
Good luck all-
Comments
DAL - lost top CB Scandrick last night.
KC - top CB Sean Smith suspended first 3 games
DEN - LT Clady out for year
MIA - S Delmas out for year
PIT - C Pouncey out perhaps 8 games
PIT - RB Bell suspended 2 games
NE - QB Brady, likely 4 games (most have never heard of this one)
CAR - DE Frank Alexander
MIN - RT Loadholt out for year
STL - CB Gaines out for year
WAS - TE Paul out for year
NE - RB Blount suspended first game
Thur night: PIT + 2.5/3 at NE, 49. Line is off most places I believe. NE - will not have Blount or Brady. PIT - will not have RB Bell and C Pouncey, monitor health of run stopping DT Tuitt. Had an early lean for NE as they could be highly motivated from all cheating talk, but I dont believe it matters as much for opening week. NE QB Garappolo looked bad preseason week 1 and good in week 2. NE D lost both starting CB in free agency and DT Wilfork, but they are solid at LB... main issue would be secondary. PIT D was horrible last year, but had several injuries... they are young and could surprise, at least in the front 7. I think PIT offense can overcome loss of RB Bell and C Pouncey for this game, likely will alter game plan to be a bit more pass happy attacking a weak NE secondary. NE will likely want to run the ball with RB Gray and perhaps White... huge DT Tuitt would help PIT here if available. Need to see NE QB Garappolo a bit more to make a better prediction here. Feel there is more value on PIT here, would be surprised in this hits 3 and think that would be a mistake if so. Small value on the over here perhaps, but not sure that it is worth a wager to me.
Thanks for doing the write-ups. Agree with you on a bunch and disagree on the other bunch haha. Will wait till after this weekend to react. Will want to see the teams work their 3rd preseason game (general rehearsal) first.
I've been preparing for this season like never before. Reading about every single article that comes out on teams to catch their pulse. Who's overrated, who's underrated, just like you're doing. With NFL Game-Pass I've been able to watch most games of the preseason so far and if I miss them I can rewatch the condensed versions later at night.
My underrated teams right now are: ATL, PHI, SD, OAK and CIN (BUF, TEN and TB might join soon)
overrated: NE, NYG, STL, SEA and IND (NYJ, CAR and WSH might join soon)
Minnesota will certainly do better than last year, but they've been on everybody's dark-horse-radar since May/June. Depending on their performance once AP returns to the field in game 1, their point spread might still have value currently. Hope to have a better feel for where San Francisco stands after this weekend. They didn't look too shabby to me last time out. At least not like the doomed team they're being made out to be by the media after their talent exodus in the offseason.
SF this season reminds me of Dallas last season
I agree with you that everybody has downgraded them to the bottom-tier of the league. Nobody's even mentioning them for the playoffs, let alone the NFC championship.
The difference between Dallas last year, where they were written off early too, and San Francisco this year, is in the coaching. I believe Dallas had 3 former head coaches as coordinators last year. Scott Linehan, Bill Callahan and Rod Marinelli. That gave Jason Garret the chance to really delegate the offense, offensive line and the defense respectively to them, while maintaining oversight. He did a great job in my opinion.
Jim Tomsula is pretty much a carte blanche so far for everybody, except those in the 49er buildings, He does have Tony Sparano and Eric Mangini aboard, but being a Dolphin fan, I never had a great esteem of Sparano. Mangini can/and most probably will be a good Defensive Coordinator.
Another important thing that San Francisco is missing, compared to Dallas last year is a solid Offensive Line. For all the talent that Dallas had on offense in Romo, Murray, Witten and Dez Bryant, it's the offensive line that made their season. Dominating the trenches, sustaining drives, giving the defense a breather. It all made Marinelli's job with the scarce talent he had on defense that much easier. Dallas simply dominated the battle for time-of-possession. I don't see San Francisco doing the same this year. I think 7-9 or 8-8 maybe 9-7 will be their max, but I expect them to cover a few before the market establishes their real value.
THUR NIGHT NE -7, 51.5... line moved from -2.5, 49 when it was announced Brady would be active. Does all the cheating talk (deflate gate and new info on spy gate) motivate or just serve as a distraction? (side note addtnl distraction for Brady could be recent divorce rumors). I dont think any team needs more motivation for week 1... So I am not going to weigh this. I think a more useful motivation edge (w benefit of hindsight) would be similar to last year, in October, when Brady and the Pats were embarrassed and accused of being done after their loss to KC in a nationally televised game on MNF and they go out and steamroll from there. In fact, I think the memory of last year hurts the line value for the Pats... and the line is a bit inflated as people think they will be more motivated to win (although perhaps I am too deep reading into it also). Pitt seems to do pretty well on nationally televised games.
Notable injuries/suspensions: C Stork likely to miss game, WR Lafell on PUP, RB Blount suspended. PIT RB Bell, C Pouncey, WR Bryant all to miss game. I think both secondaries are terrible and the front 7s are pretty good. Pitt D has not played well in preseason under new DC, but still has 4 former 1st round picks at LB including last 3 years, although perhaps not all starting (5 1st round picks in front 7)... regardless, I think they have some emerging talent on defense that is underappreciated. The new DC Keith Butler was highly sought after by Arizona HC Arians (who seems to know what he is doing) and they had to let Lebeau go in order to keep Butler. Brady did not look great in preseason... sort of funny their overhaul at RB also - their offense has lost Vereen, Ridley, Gray, and Blount - top 4 RBs from last year. WR Lafell on PUP who was productive at end of last year. I guess Brady and Gronk are so good, nothing else matters? To a point, perhaps... maybe Amendola can resurge and Edelman can dominate as well. Maybe... it is a porous Pitt secondary. Roethlisberger should be in conversation as a top QB, but never is. Dri Archer and Markus Wheaton or even Sammie Coates could be nice role players in this game... I actually think Dri Archer can be great in this game... Pitt doesnt use him much because he is pint sized and they need to keep him healthy, plus Bell is a stud... but Thur night represents a different situation. Pitt still has weapons on offense besides RB Bell (who is not playing) and WR Brown (who is). As stated, I like NE front 7 on D... DL should be solid even without Wilfork and LBs should be great, but they lost both of their starting CBs in offseason and are depending on depth from last year to step up. I think they are asking for a bit much, and NE falls squarely into the overrated category for me early in the year.
Personally, I think if you like NE, it is safer to go with the over. I think if you like Pitt, it can be a side or the over... depending on your exact reasons for liking Pitt.
As to the line, I think we will see a 7... and I will wait (-6.5, -115 at bookmaker, also I am headed to Vegas on Thursday). The total is nicer at the 51 that it was at immediately after the Brady news, perhaps it heads back down, but I think it is more likely to go to 52.
For me, I will be on Pitt only at +7... otherwise it will be an over wager.
As a heads up to any that read this stuff, I tend to make a lot of wagers in a week at a smaller percentage of bankroll... anyone (like RAS or others that have proven track records) that thinks they have a long term edge, should of course bet smaller amounts on as many transactions as they think they have an edge... in order to eliminate luck and gain long term. The opposite is true if you do not know or if honestly usually lose... make fewer wagers with more money. That may be obvious, the difficult part is determining where the cutoff is where we all have an edge and money management. I make mistakes betting on Thur night, sunday night, and monday night... too much for entertainment.. . and many times play more games than I should. I also often make money mgmt mistakes, as do many I guess. My point, is I do not want anyone reading this and betting too much based on thinking their strategy is the same as mine. I am still learning / trying to improve on these points and am not trying to suggest I am faultless.
wont have crazy write-ups most of the time... will update when I get to Vegas after I have made Thur night and early Sun plays.
anyway, good luck to all this year
By the way, I think SF is in the 4-12 to 6-10 area this year. That division is too good... Kaepernick has not proven anything... LB Willis could be an injury risk after hearing that it takes him at least 2 hours to get ready for practice? TE Vernon Davis is overrated. RB Carlos Hyde has not proven anything. Release of Dockett may prove they acknowledge they are in rebuilding mode.
It's actually the same feeling I have when I capped the game.....
When there are so many insecurities, you should just lay-off imo.
Enjoy the game, maybe you'll see something to bet on live or 2H.
Part of this is my way of writing... I am not trying to convince or sell anyone. Simply stating my opinion for chance that some can benefit from the thoughts or provide discussion. I'll put up some other thoughts tomorrow, way less info per game, that took too long. Appreciate the feedback.
Good luck RC money
KC/HOU... No Foster for Houston is the headliner, but KC could have some notable absences in DT Poe and already KC top CB Sean Smith out. Think Houston has some swagger to them at home here and think they pull out a home win. Should be favored by 3 I think. Was going to be a top play for me with Foster in, but line has not adjusted. JJ watt is a difference maker.. Add Wilfork and Clowney, throw in a questionable KC OL, and I think QB Smith makes enough mistakes to lose. I don't expect Charles to be much of a factor with Houston defense. Hopkins begins to make a name for himself for Houston this year.
Jets/Cle. Line may move to 3.5, think it is -3, -125 now... I did suggest a wager at -2.5, -110 in another thread awhile back. Now the value is sucked out, as well as the total dropping. Think there are better options at this price as Cle D is good enough to cause some issues. Jets win a close one here I think.
Buf may get to +3. Would be better if we knew MCCoy to be at full health... As it is you are gambling on his hamstring. I like Buff at home w their DL matchup against a shaky Colts OL, running of Tyrod Taylor and McCoy if healthy against a horrible Colts run D. But QB Luck is so good and they have so many weapons, there are questions. It is Buff or no play for me here though.
Jax getting 3.5 here is real nice. Carolina was not very good last year, they are running on 2013 steam. Basic offense w Stewart and Newton running around, throwing to basically only Olsen. Expect some high, off target throws from Newton... Towel over the head for Jay Cutler south. Main difference has been Cam Newtons athletic ability to avoid a sack and running ability, but I expect miscues here. Carolina will be a popular pick, I'll be on the other side. Jax has underrated talent on both sides of the ball.