Betting Talk

NBA 1st Half Totals vs Game Totals

KashmirKashmir Senior Member
edited August 2015 in Sports Betting
Having trouble finding historical 1H totals for the NBA. Aren't NBA 1H totals 50% of the game total? I guess i'll find out for sure this fall. Any help is appreciated. Thanks.

Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Kashmir wrote: »
    Aren't NBA 1H totals 50% of the game total?

    They used to be,
    Guys like Haralobos Voulgaris exploited this for a couple of years, until the books caught on. This ended around 2006/2007. That's when the books started shading the 1st half totals towards the team's tendencies.

    Instead of a game total being 200 and the 1H being half of that, nowadays books are not afraid to do a 200/98 split or 200/102.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    I would say a 100.5/99.5/200 type distribution is the most "standard" you will find/have found in the NBA (typically slower 2h pace and no CBB foul fests)

    but as obi said books are not shy now of shading totals one way or another. Teams like NO and BOS had huge 2h over action this year despite being already shaded that way (98/102/200). Teams like SAS,MEM,UTA,IND and MIN to a lesser extent.
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Thanks guys.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    I track each team and its opponents 1H scoring. Last year the average was 50.4% of the total points were scored in 1H vs 2nd Half. (OT not included)

    Top 5

    Philadelphia 0.515
    Cleveland 0.514
    Miami 0.513
    Okla City 0.513
    Sacramento 0.513

    Bottom 5

    Boston 0.485
    Utah 0.490
    San Antonio 0.492
    New Orleans 0.495
    Indiana 0.496

    As mentioned, books do shade teams more than ever. Sometimes too much. I've found the NBA 1H numbers from the books are much sharper than CBB or WNBA. There are still plenty of opportunities to find value, it's just more work than it used to be.

    I don't have what avg pct the book used for a 1H total season wide but I'm sure it could be found. I'm also pretty sure it's close to the actual scoring so you wouldn't make much playing straight overs/unders based on the numbers.

    I look to identify a few teams that consistently show "value" or that I have a good read on and focus on them.
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Thanks, ebemiss. I'm just working on a 2nd half model and have 2H lines but couldn't find the 1H ones for awhile. But I found them. Thanks.
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