Ed Bemiss DFS tracking thread

Admin · May 2015

We will use this thread to track/update Ed Bemiss's DFS plays for those who are interested. We've had interest in other threads in tracking him, and also some suggestions for the best way to track his results, but feel free to share additional feedback if you have any.

ParkerM will be responsible for updating daily.

Tracking will begin on Wednesday (following Tuesday's results).

ParkerM · May 2015

First, thank you to Ed Bemiss for allowing us to track his results. We thought it would be beneficial for the Betting Talk community to see how his projections fared on a day-to-day basis while he continues to tweak them for optimal performance. Each day, Bemiss has been posting 5 optimal lineups for both FanDuel and DraftKings, based from the projection model he has created. You can view his daily projections over in his lineup projection thread. Feel free to ask him any questions about anything you might be wondering.

We're going to track a couple different things that I think will be interesting. Bemiss is going to pick one of the five FanDuel lineups his projection model likes for the day and enter it into a couple of contests (most likely some mixture of 50/50 and GPP). We will track basic ROI for these to see how they perform. (Please note we may not be starting with a money management method which would be considered ideal, rather consider this as another learning tool to see what may work, and what may not)

We're also going to take a look at how his score would have placed in a few different GPPs at various entry fee levels, if he had entered them. Specifically, for FanDuel we will compare results in the daily MLB $3 Squeeze, $25 Grand Slam, and $300 Monster. Please note we're not recommending you always enter all these contests every night, we're just curious about finding out what would happen if you did.

For DraftKings, Bemiss will also select one of the five lineups his model projects each day. For now, we will only be comparing the DK score to how it would have placed in a few GPPs. We may add the ROI feature at a later time.

If you have any questions or comments please feel free to ask us here in this thread, or over in Bemiss' lineup projection thread.

ParkerM · May 2015

Bemiss is starting with a $200 bankroll on FanDuel (a fairly typical first time deposit amount since that is the max they advertise as matching as a deposit bonus) and played a very conservative 5% of his balance last night. He entered into a $5 50-man 50/50 and a $5 GPP. It was a heartbreaking opening night as the 50/50 lineup placed 26th, one spot away from the cash (thanks for nothing Freddy Galvis!). The GPP finished a fair ways off the pace.

(The charts don't copy as clean as they look in my spreadsheet, but you can still see the results anyway)

Daily Results from Tuesday, May.5

<style type="text/css"></style>
<tbody>
FANDUEL

Date

Contest

Type
Entry Fee
Winning Score
Min Score to Cash
ebemiss score
Place
Winnings

May.5

MLB 50/50 League (50 player)
50/50
$5
65.66
27.16
25.75
26th
$0

May.5

$25K Tue MLB Rally (5,537 players)
GPP
$5
67.16
37.75
25.75
3,121st
$0

Daily Totals

$10

$0

</tbody>

Overall Tracking Results

<tbody>

Starting Investment
$200

Current Bank
$190

Contest Type

# of Days
Played
# of Contests
Played
Total $$
Entry Fees
Net $$
ROI

50/50s
1
1
$5
-$5
-2.50%

GPPs
1
1
$5
-$5
-2.50%

Overall Total

$10
-$10
-5.00%

</tbody>

If he had entered into other GPPs, things wouldn't have fared any better. It's interesting the person who won the $3 Squeeze would have also won the Grand Slam AND MEGA Monster last night if he had entered them. The MEGA Monster paid out $100K to the winner, I bet user a25smith is kicking himself pretty hard today.

<style type="text/css"></style>
<tbody>
*Please note the below chart is for hypothetical tracking purposes only. These contests are not being entered for real money.

</tbody>
<style type="text/css"></style>
<tbody>
Date

Site
Contest
Entry
Winning Score
Min Cash Score
ebemiss score
Winnings*
# of Days Played*
Net $$*

May.5

FanDuel
MLB MEGA Monster
$300
70.75
36.66
25.75
None
1
-$300

May.5

FanDuel
MLB Grand Slam
$25
68.16
38.25
25.75
None
1
-$25

May.5

FanDuel
MLB Squeeze
$3
72.66
37.75
25.75
None
1
-$3

</tbody>

There was no DraftKings lineup selected to play last night.

ParkerM · May 2015

Bemiss diversified his contests a little more last night on FanDuel, going with a 70-30 split in 50/50 to GPP, added a second 50/50 contest and dropping down to the $3 Squeeze GPP, and had a successful night. It came down to the wire again in the 50-man 50/50 but this time he snuck into the cash with the 25th place finish. He also entered a $2 100-man 50/50 and scored a cash there with a 44th place finish. The GPPs were out of range for both the FD and DK contests.

<style type="text/css"></style>
<tbody>
FANDUEL

Date
Contest
Type
Entry Fee
Winning Score
Min Score to Cash
ebemiss score
Place
Total Winnings

May.6

MLB 50/50 League
(100 entries)
50/50
$2
54.5
30.5
32.25
44th
$3.60

May.6

MLB 50/50 League
(50 entries)
50/50
$5
58.75
32.25
32.25
25th
$9

May.6

$100K Wed MLB Squeeze (38,314 entries)
GPP
$3
71.75
39.25
32.25
14,858th
$0

Daily Totals

$10

$12.60

</tbody>
I should note the running tally of the bank does not include any bonus money being released into the account from the original deposit bonus.

Overall Tracking Results
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-</style>

<tbody>
Starting Investment

$200

Current Bank
$192.60

Contest Type
# of Days Played
# of Contests Played
Total $$ Entry Fees
Net $$
ROI

50/50s
2
3
$12
$0.60
0.30%

GPPs
2
2
$8
-$8
-4.00%

Overall Total

$20
-$7.40
-3.70%

</tbody>
Here's what would have happened if all the below GPPs were entered. One guy had a monster night taking first place in 4 of the 6 big contests on DraftKings. Didn't add up how many entries he had in each, but he totaled over $100K in prize money. Interesting again that the winner of the the smallest contest ($3 Moonshot) would have destroyed everyone in every bigger contest had he entered. That's exactly what happened on FanDuel as the winner of the $3 Squeeze also took down the Grand Slam and Monster with the same lineup.
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}</style>

*Please note the below chart is for hypothetical tracking purposes only. These contests are not being entered for real money.

ParkerM · May 2015

Here's the results from the early games on FanDuel today. Bemiss once again played two 50/50s and a smaller GPP. Edinson Volquez had a nice early lead and blew himself up walking batters left and right (6 in 3 innings!) and left after just 3 innings, spoiling any chance of cashing this afternoon.

<style type="text/css"></style>
<tbody>
FANDUEL

Date

Contest
Type
Entry Fee
Winning Score
Min Score to Cash
ebemiss score
Place
Total Winnings

May.7

MLB 50/50 League (100 entries)
50/50
$2
61.66
33.58
23.75
77th
$0

May.7

MLB 50/50 League
(50 entries)
50/50
$5
51.58
27.25
23.75
37th
$0

May.7

$10K Thu MLB Squeeze #2 (Early Only) (3,831 entries)
GPP
$3
70.16
40.41
23.75
2589th
$0

Daily Total

$10

$0.00

</tbody>
Overall Results

<style type="text/css"></style>
<tbody>
Starting Investment

$200

Current Bank
$182.60

Contest Type
# of Days Played
# of Contests Played
Total $$ Entry Fees
Net $$
ROI

50/50s
3
5
$19
-$6.40
-3.20%

GPPs
3
3
$11
-$11
-5.50%

Overall Total

$30
-$17.40
-8.70%

</tbody>
FanDuel didn't list the early GPPs in their "Track Featured Tournaments" list so no hypothetical tracking there. Here's how the Arrieta/Volquez lineup Bemiss picked for DraftKings would have fared in the early contests.

<style type="text/css"></style><style type="text/css"></style>

*Please note the below chart is for hypothetical tracking purposes only. These contests are not being entered for real money.

<tbody>
Date

Site
Contest
Entry
Winning Score
Min Cash Score
ebemiss score
Winnings*
# of Days Played*
Net $$*

May.7

DraftKings
MLB Moonshot (Early)
$3
189.4
115.95
55.95
--
1
-$3

May.7

DraftKings
MLB Payoff Pitch (Early)
$27
195.7
121.05
55.95
--
1
-$27

May.7

DraftKings
MLB High Heat (Early)
$100
182.65
135.95
55.95
--
1
-$100

May.7

DraftKings
MLB Perfect Game (Early)
$300
184.65
132.3
55.95
--
1
-$300

May.7

DraftKings
MLB Gold Glove (Early)
$1,060
178.65
144.6
55.95
--
1
-$1,060

</tbody>

Will have tonight's results later, he's in the same 3 contests on FanDuel but did not go with a DK lineup for tonight's games.

ParkerM · May 2015

It was a rough night with the FanDuel lineups as Chris Archer was lit up early. Here's the results:

<style type="text/css"></style>
<tbody>
FANDUEL

Date

Contest
Type
Entry Fee
Winning Score
Min Score to Cash
ebemiss score
Place
Total Winnings

May.7
MLB 50/50 League (100 entries)
50/50
$2
58
29.41
17.58
90th
$0

May.7
MLB 50/50 League (50 entries)
50/50
$5
53.58
26.83
17.58
39th
$0

May.7
$10K Thu MLB Squeeze #3 (3,831 entries)
GPP
$3
67
37.58
17.58
3374th
$0

Daily Total

$10

$0

</tbody>
Overall Results

<style type="text/css"></style>
<tbody>
Starting Investment

$200

Current Bank
$172.60

Contest Type
# of Days Played
# of Contests Played
Total $$ Entry Fees
Net $$
ROI

50/50s
3
7
$26
-$13.40
-6.70%

GPPs
3
4
$14
-$14
-7.00%

Overall Total

$40
-$27.40
-13.70%

</tbody>
The hypothetical GPP struggle continues, which would be a usual occurrence. Sample size is way too small, we'll see what would happen over time.

<style type="text/css"></style>

*Please note the below chart is for hypothetical tracking purposes only. These contests are not being entered for real money

Ed Bemiss DFS tracking thread

Comments