KY Derby
StevieY
Senior Handicapper
I modeled the last 16 Derby's to see what ratings Derby winners have in common and what ratings are bad for Derby winners(and almost complete wipeouts). I thought I would get down to a couple horses with no wipeout stats but to my surprise, every horse had a wipeout stat. I assumed American Pharoah would have none based on him having numbers(my numbers) that very few if any Derby horses have had in the past.
(All odds talk is estimated since i won't be around later)
18 American Pharoh(18 good ratings, 1 bad rating which was a wipeout, 3-143). Derby is all about trips. He gets a good one, I think he wins. Odds will make him unplayable for win plays, will be on any pick 3/4's, exacta/tris I put together. Interesting that when I modeled place horses, he was the top rated place horse as well. Probably not a shock since he is a very good horse. Odds of him throwing up a dud if given a chance are probably small.
10 Firing Line (16 good, 1 bad which was a wipeout, 1-65). Was hoping for the 12-1 but didn't think it would really stick. He is my main win bet, hope it doesn't get too much lower than 8-1.
15 Frosted ( 12 good ratings, 2 bad, 1 of which is a wipeout 1-43). Small play on him at 15-1, 9-1 now is ?? to go along with my play above. Add in that every time I turn on TVG I hear his name mentioned, probably the kiss of death horse for the day.
4 Tencendur(10 good ratings, 5 bad rating, 3 are wipeouts). At 30-1, worth a small play, now 57-1, definitely a small play. You can't expect your bombs to be shiny diamonds.
19 Upstart(8 goodr atings, 4 bad, 2 of which are wipeouts). Will more than likely have him somewhere in my exotics.
8 Dortmund (10 good ratings, 6 bad, 1 of which is a wipeout). No win bet at his current odds but will be on my pick 3/4's.
The 3 Materiality and the the 9 Bolo both have 6 good ratings, 6 bad ratings and will be on the back end of exactas/tris if I do any.
The 14 Keen Ice will be added to the backend of exactas/tri if I do them as my "longshot pedigree" horse who makes the exotics boom. Many years there is 1. This year, 3 horses have the pedigree to fit, AP, Frosted and Keen Ice. Obviously the 1st two are not going to make an exotic pop. he had 4 good ratings, 14 bad, 8 wipeout and was the best of the rest in those stats.
The rest of the horses were lacking numbers, many of which would be 1st time evers. Note this is only for win, doesn't mean they can't pick up a place/show/4th. One horse that is interesting, total disconnect between numbers/public/model is the 2 Carpe Diem. I have two "totals" ratings, one he is 4th, the other he is 12th. Model wise 1 good rating, 14 bad, 7 of which are wipeouts. Most other individual numbers have him in the middle of the pack. Many of the ratings where he didn't fit good or bad he was just outside the good. He seems to be a horse on an island, just outside the top horses, but ahead of the total no chancers. At 7-1, I will try to beat him completely.
(All odds talk is estimated since i won't be around later)
18 American Pharoh(18 good ratings, 1 bad rating which was a wipeout, 3-143). Derby is all about trips. He gets a good one, I think he wins. Odds will make him unplayable for win plays, will be on any pick 3/4's, exacta/tris I put together. Interesting that when I modeled place horses, he was the top rated place horse as well. Probably not a shock since he is a very good horse. Odds of him throwing up a dud if given a chance are probably small.
10 Firing Line (16 good, 1 bad which was a wipeout, 1-65). Was hoping for the 12-1 but didn't think it would really stick. He is my main win bet, hope it doesn't get too much lower than 8-1.
15 Frosted ( 12 good ratings, 2 bad, 1 of which is a wipeout 1-43). Small play on him at 15-1, 9-1 now is ?? to go along with my play above. Add in that every time I turn on TVG I hear his name mentioned, probably the kiss of death horse for the day.
4 Tencendur(10 good ratings, 5 bad rating, 3 are wipeouts). At 30-1, worth a small play, now 57-1, definitely a small play. You can't expect your bombs to be shiny diamonds.
19 Upstart(8 goodr atings, 4 bad, 2 of which are wipeouts). Will more than likely have him somewhere in my exotics.
8 Dortmund (10 good ratings, 6 bad, 1 of which is a wipeout). No win bet at his current odds but will be on my pick 3/4's.
The 3 Materiality and the the 9 Bolo both have 6 good ratings, 6 bad ratings and will be on the back end of exactas/tris if I do any.
The 14 Keen Ice will be added to the backend of exactas/tri if I do them as my "longshot pedigree" horse who makes the exotics boom. Many years there is 1. This year, 3 horses have the pedigree to fit, AP, Frosted and Keen Ice. Obviously the 1st two are not going to make an exotic pop. he had 4 good ratings, 14 bad, 8 wipeout and was the best of the rest in those stats.
The rest of the horses were lacking numbers, many of which would be 1st time evers. Note this is only for win, doesn't mean they can't pick up a place/show/4th. One horse that is interesting, total disconnect between numbers/public/model is the 2 Carpe Diem. I have two "totals" ratings, one he is 4th, the other he is 12th. Model wise 1 good rating, 14 bad, 7 of which are wipeouts. Most other individual numbers have him in the middle of the pack. Many of the ratings where he didn't fit good or bad he was just outside the good. He seems to be a horse on an island, just outside the top horses, but ahead of the total no chancers. At 7-1, I will try to beat him completely.
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