Betting Talk

30 second shot clock(totals)?..

beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
edited March 2015 in Sports Betting
The NIT and CBI are using a 30 sec shot clock and expanding the circle to four feet to make more possesions and curb physical play.Of course my question is with totals being so tight with the books these extra times each team has the ball could make betting overs a good value play in these two tourneys?.Also some of the teams playing are mid majors with very little line history..so would there be some great value to be had?.Would think there would be some soft numbers if you caught it early enough...

Comments

  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2015
    beefcake wrote: »
    The NIT and CBI are using a 30 sec shot clock and expanding the circle to four feet to make more possesions and curb physical play.Of course my question is with totals being so tight with the books these extra times each team has the ball could make betting overs a good value play in these two tourneys?.Also some of the teams playing are mid majors with very little line history..so would there be some great value to be had?.Would think there would be some soft numbers if you caught it early enough...

    I think you may find some unders. Books may add a few points to the totals but shorter clock = lots of bad late clock shots. Some teams don't come close to running down the shot clock, they likely won't be affected, but slower teams may be taking lots of bad shots.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    There will be edges to be found. Anytime they change something, it takes them a while to catch up.

    Good luck,
    Eddie
  • jmjm Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Good think IU made the tourney or this would really throw Crean off as we love to run a 3 man weave at the top of the key for the 15 seconds of the shot clock.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Clearly someone(s) felt hitting the entire board over was the way to go.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Goats wrote: »
    Clearly someone(s) felt hitting the entire board over was the way to go.

    Wow no kidding
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Pulled the trigger on my unders about 5 minutes ago. This could either go great or very badly.
  • billymacbillymac Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    TommyL wrote: »
    Pulled the trigger on my unders about 5 minutes ago. This could either go great or very badly.

    There are some games that have moved to high 20's or 30's that don't belong there with a 24 second clock LOL
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Also they should reset shot clock at 15-20 secs after a foul on the floor, not 35.
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    Wow no kidding

    Well it was not me...Dam...Everyone thinking the same thing..Time to bet a 20 team teaser and take all the unders.Could be the Ultimate one day contrarian betting extravaganza.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Goats wrote: »
    Clearly someone(s) felt hitting the entire board over was the way to go.

    It wasn't me, but it's pretty much printing money imo.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    It wasn't me, but it's pretty much printing money imo.

    Could very well have been against the open but after they've moved 10 points? It's unders or pass now. I'm passing.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    kdog wrote: »
    Could very well have been against the open but after they've moved 10 points? It's unders or pass now. I'm passing.

    Too late to edit but I should have included I was only looking at the CIT & CBI games where 1st round overs had been an historically strong bet. Last year being an exception.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2015
    Today's opening totals would have been bid upwards regardless to the change to the shot clock.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2015
    The books butchered those openers. It looks like they opened with lines like everything was the same. They were pretty much all too low but the games that opened higher, those teams already run. NC Central has to speed up, Iona doesn't(and their opp doesn't play slow either). How much was Iona's line really off?
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited March 2015
    StevieY wrote: »
    The books butchered those openers. It looks like they opened with lines like everything was the same.
    Lower set totals appeared to have a 1/1.5 upward adjustment while higher set totals around 1.5/2, which would have fallen short for the markets appetite for Overs in these tournament totals prior to any change in the shot clock.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    StevieY wrote: »
    The books butchered those openers. It looks like they opened with lines like everything was the same. They were pretty much all too low but the games that opened higher, those teams already run. NC Central has to speed up, Iona doesn't(and their opp doesn't play slow either). How much was Iona's line really off?

    Yeah this is what I don't get. Some of these teams already run, why the 7-10 point moves. Feels like I'm missing something.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    kdog wrote: »
    Could very well have been against the open but after they've moved 10 points? It's unders or pass now. I'm passing.

    Yes, I was referring to whoever bet them at open. Those openers were laughable.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Some thoughts from Pomeroy...

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_30_second_shot_clock_is_here
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Well, guess the books don't want to deal with figuring out these totals today (for the non-TV games that is).
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Tommy-- what were the W/L yesterday on the openers vs the close?
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