SweetJones55 NFL Play
sweetjones55
Senior Member
Two Team 6 Point Teaser -110: Detroit Lions +8.5/Green Bay Packers -2.5 -110 (x1)
sweetjones55
Senior Member
Comments
Good point, will grade at -120. I was able to find -110 at first place I went to with ties losing (obviously this can't tie).
Yes.
Gotta disagree with you here if you're including basic strategy road favs. Those are not a profitable subset.
lololol
lol all you want rito, I know that statement looks BillTheCopish but over a 20 year sample betting them blind is a loser.
It doesn't just look BillTheCopish, it is exactly what he does and you should know better. Evaluating past subsets and projecting them forward is not the way to do this.
The bill the cop teasers from +4/5 up are profitable over 20 years for home dogs. Are you betting those? I hope not. Home dogs are profitable over 20 years as well and I really hope no one is blindly betting those since they are 50/50 in recent years.
Evaluating teasers based on past subset performance is dangerous because it ignores the underlying spread results. Home teasers from 1.5-2.5 do very very well looking back historically, far better than they should. Why? Because the spreads were blindly profitable on their own.
The opposite is whats happened with road favorites -7.5-8.5, they've hit below 50%.
Its pretty clear there was a bias in nfl spreads on away favorites in the past, but those things should disapear over time and it certainly appears this has happened in the nfl.
Evaluating a -7-8.5 teaser requires the fair money line on the game and the push percent on the 1 and 2. Using market prices for the money line any reasonable estimates of the push percentages will give you a +ev teaser (especially at +100 2.teamers) on road favorites always. If you disagree you should be betting the +7.5 because one of the two has to be +ev.
First off I don't bet anything blindly. As far as BTC's 4.5-6 pt road dogs go I look at them in low totaled games only unless I really need a filler for something.
Basic strategy road favs have not only been a loser over 20 years, their performance over the last 5 (a far more significant time frame to evaluate imo)is just as bad. The problem with using push percentages only to evaluate these is that it ignores any home/road dichotomy, yet that dichotomy does & has existed for some time, road favs the worst basic strategy subset, home favs the best. Why ignore it? Throw them out for now, track them & when or if they turn around use them. (BTW we are arguing over ~6 games per season so...either way it's no big deal.)
Given the small sample how are you possibly going to know when it's turned around?
As for the BTC teasers, you can get substantially better prices on these than teasers using alt lines.
You can price them with money lines, which you know.
" I'm saying the only piece of information you need to price the favorite teaser is the % chance the favorite wins and the % chance they win by 1 or 2."
Except unless you have it home/away it still ignores the dichotomy. If you break it home/away do you not think the homes would show stronger?
When this will turn around and how will we know it??? No idea, could start this year, we could all be pushing up daisys before it does. What I do know is road favs have been a ~65% subset for a long enough period that I'll pass on most of them especially if I have to lay -110.
Agree winning long term on these will be very tough at -120. I do think -110 teasers can be easily had though with some line shopping, especially if pushes lose which wouldn't matter in this teasers case.