PGA The Open Championship - FREE Contest (just reply!)
Fat Polamalu
Senior Member
The Players: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TBOKYW4oqMBRHkKDlw0xyh8kh5j1WFI3d_-AQqvRmrU/pubhtml#
This is a pretty decent spreadsheet (I didn't make it) to get started with. Its got player form, as well as the last 3 Open results, plus the results from the last time the Open was held at Royal Liverpool. Im pretty sure it will update through the week if there are WDs. I can't remember if the odds get updated.
The Course: http://www.theopen.com/en/TheCourse.aspx
The Weather: http://www.myweather2.com/Golf-Courses/United-Kingdom/Merseyside/Royal-Liverpool-Golf-Club.aspx
Let's pick some winners.
This is a pretty decent spreadsheet (I didn't make it) to get started with. Its got player form, as well as the last 3 Open results, plus the results from the last time the Open was held at Royal Liverpool. Im pretty sure it will update through the week if there are WDs. I can't remember if the odds get updated.
The Course: http://www.theopen.com/en/TheCourse.aspx
The Weather: http://www.myweather2.com/Golf-Courses/United-Kingdom/Merseyside/Royal-Liverpool-Golf-Club.aspx
Let's pick some winners.
Comments
Robert Karlsson in the first group is an interesting pick.
We'll have this week's PGA contest up by this evening with an announcement of the event we'll be entering. (*HINT* It will be the largest GPP we've entered to date, with a large enough prize pool everyone should be excited for!)
According to a DraftKings rep, your 5 bullets for DraftStreet's "Big Score" will be converted to DK at 100% cash value. I also have a voucher for that event. Honestly, pretty disappointed won't be able to play that event this weekend. I love DS's golf pricing way more than DK's, so hopefully that is one of the things they will bring over in the merge.
I ran a regression last week against 2013 scoring for the top 120 players and found that GIR % and Putting accounted for 77% of a player's scoring average on the season. This was pretty eye opening for me, and while on different courses it may vary more/less it's worth sharing.
This week, we'll be entering 2 lineups into the DraftKings $60k Royal Golf Championship GPP ($20 entry) where the winner will walk away with a sweet $10,000. The top 675 places will be paid (minimum $40) in the 3,402 max entry field. We've improved our standing each of the first three weeks we've participated in these contests, so we're looking to improve even further and score some cash this week!
What's in it for you? Simple. Just make a post in this thread (create a new Betting Talk account here for free if you don't already have one) with any type of thought on this week's Championship, and you'll get a piece of anything we win*. It's basically a freeroll for you! Just offer your thoughts on players we should look at, discuss strategy, ask questions -- really anything and you'll be eligible to split our prize if we win!
Deadline of 11pm EST Wednesday to be eligible.
Questions? Ask them here. Now let's go win some money!
FYI, here's a link to the .CSV file containing all of this week's players' salaries. We need to choose six players for each lineup that fit under a $50,000 salary cap.
Looking to try Daily Fantasy Sports? Get started with an extra bonus only available at BiggerBonus! Choose from DraftKings or other sites.
*We'll reimburse you for your deposit if you don't have a DraftKings account currently
I expect to have him on a roster here, unless you guys can give me good enough reasons not to use him?
As far as the top priced guys go, I'm interested in Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson at first glace (I haven't done my full capping yet), with Justin Rose being my top "stay-away" guy. Who do you guys like in the top tier of guys? For those who don't want to access drewby's spreadsheet (which is great, btw, love the updated changes) or the DraftKings prices file, here's the top tier:
<tbody>
Adam Scott
$10,800
Rory McIlroy
$10,700
Justin Rose
$10,600
Martin Kaymer
$10,500
Henrik Stenson
$10,400
Tiger Woods
$10,300
</tbody>
In the next group of players, I think Sergio Garcia is an interesting choice. I almost definitely want to use him, but am hesitant at the same time. Matt Kuchar and Phil Mickelson also seem like they would be great choices, and of course, I mentioned how much I love McDowell. This is an extremely tough group of guys and it will be difficult to narrow them down, imo.
<tbody>
Sergio Garcia
$10,100
Matt Kuchar
$10,000
Phil Mickelson
$9,900
Jason Day
$9,700
Graeme McDowell
$9,600
</tbody>
<tbody>
Jordan Spieth
$9,500
Dustin Johnson
$9,400
Jim Furyk
$9,300
Rickie Fowler
$9,200
Bubba Watson
$9,100
Zach Johnson
$9,100
Luke Donald
$9,000
Lee Westwood
$9,000
Ian Poulter
$8,900
Brandt Snedeker
$8,800
</tbody>
With 88 of the top 90 players in the world competing this week (Stricker and Howell III absent for personal reasons) and DraftKings pricing so close from top-to-mid-to lower level guys, it's going to be a huge challenge to find the perfect roster. The tight pricing at the top almost certainly means we'll have to find a deep sleeper or two. Any dark horses on the radar yet?
Let us know what you think, whether it be an interesting tidbit on a player, a stat that is just too hard to ignore, or a piece of info on the weather for this weekend. Let's find that perfect lineup!
End of the day, it's possible this player ends up in 100% of my lineups this weekend.
Yeah I can get behind this pick, too. His numbers look solid, as you've mentioned, and his stats seem to back them up. It's a great price tag and will allow us to afford more at the top end. We're probably getting extra value this week on his price, since he missed the cut last weekend at The Scottish Open, but other than that his form seems to be very good from what I've read.
Nice find, drewby.
Anyone have thoughts on Eric Compton and his $5,600 price? Runner-up at this year's U.S. Open. His stats don't pop off the page to you, but always like to at least consider a player who was right there at the end in a recent Major.
With the best players in the world in the field, from a strategic perspective I'd prefer to have balanced lineups in cash games versus splurging for Adam Scott or McIlroy. That said, those guys are are disclaimer plays and can be rostered comfortably where you can afford them, with Scott the safer option. Last, I think it's important to touch on Tiger Woods along with the rest of the media -- simply put, he can't be trusted in cash games and is a GPP only option, despite tremendous success at the British in his career and a victory at this exact same golf course. Now on to our plays:
General Plays
Phil Mickelson - I might be in the minority but I like Phil this week. He's cheap on a relative basis compared to offshore odds, and his approach game and chipping is still world class. His "dreadful" form has still yield an 11th at Fedex, 28th at the US Open, and 11th last week at the Scottish Open. I see no reason he can't contend.
Dustin Johnson - There's a lot to like about DJ besides his relationship with Paulina Gretzky. Perceived by many as a bomber, DJ's approach game and putting is a bit under the radar, and he has top 15's in 3 of the last 4 British Opens. He's a player primed for a breakthrough.
Zach Johnson - Johnson & Johnson approach coming into play this week, with Zach also having good success at the last 3 British Opens at 6th, 9th and 16th, and coming off a 2nd in a weak John Deere field.
Keegan Bradley - My affinity for the Vermont native is well documented at this point, and may be a slight problem. Every course I find myself wanting to recommend him as I love his well rounded game for challenging courses, and championship pedigree.
Low Price Plays
Simply put Francesco Molinari is criminally underpriced and may be rostered in 100% of my lineups. He's 8 for 8 on the pga tour this year with a Top 10 at TPC and 23rd at the US open. His sportsbook odds imply he should be priced at $8k yet he can be yours for just $5,800. He also has tremendous accuracy off the tee and a top 25 field percent for GIR.
Stewart Cink - 10 consecutive cuts for just $5,600 and cuts in 3 of the last 4 British Opens. More of a cash game guy with lower upside.
Ross Fisher - Complete flyer here but he's dirt cheap and has made 4 of 5 cuts at the British and has one of the highest GIR % in the field. Won't roster him often but likely find my way onto a lineup.
Edoardo Molinari - Getting a little weird with twins here, but if you play both of them, you're highly likely to get 108 holes of production, versus spending $10k elsewhere for 72 holes of production on someone like Matt Kuchar.
Other sub $7k guys to consider: Kevin Na, Thongchai Jadee, Ryan Moore
(1) Probably in every entry - Henrik Stenson(10400) #2 player in world for a reason
(2) A. Cabrera(7600) - pulled this from another website... The last three winners (Darren Clarke, Ernie Els and Mickelson) were all in their 40s, and from that age group, no ones presently playing better than Cabrera. He emerged victorious at The Greenbrier to kick off the month, finished seventh when the Open was contested at Hoylake in 2006 and remains one of the longest drivers and premiere distance putters on Tour at age 44 16th DDis & 14th >25-foot putting. He already has two Majors (2007 US Open, 2009 Masters) and a secret weapon to remain relaxed in stressful situations
(3) G. McDowell (9600)
Sleeper: Brendan Todd(7400) - Todd has put together an impressive run featuring five Top 10s in six starts, with his only stumble being a T17 at the US Open. And really, it was just one round. The worlds 41st ranked player entered the weekend second to Kaymer, then fired a Saturday 79. He blew up in a Major, it happens. Despite being well out of contention, Todd carded a Sunday 69; it was reassuring to see him not pack it in
Wish I had a reason to play him because he is so fun to watch: M.A. Jimenez
Henrik Stenson
Jimmy Walker
Luke Donald
Mikko Ilonen
Thongchai Jaidee
Rickie Fowler
I put a little bit on him to be the first round leader.
Good luck guys.
I've been hearing a lot about this Ilonen guy this week. Honestly, I don't really know anything about him. He doesn't have much of a sample size to go on this year (just 2 events it looks like). Is this a guy who should be on our radar?
I've been confidently rostering Todd every week for the past month. He's simply been flat out amazing. I guess you could say Brendan Todd is to me, as Keegan Bradley is to Drewby.
Based on his odds to win of 81-1 and odds of 17-1 to place top 5, there's value in his price tag of just $7,200. Other guys with those odds are priced at $8,000. That's usually a good place to start when looking for value, and sometimes reason enough to warrant a roster spot.
Taking at look at his history at this event, and suddenly he jumps out as having even more value. His finishes of T13, T9, T25, T27, and T13 are nothing short of solid, and now has me looking hard at this guy. He might be a sneaky GPP play, too. Hmm..
I wonder if he'll be widely owned. Seems to be on a lot of radars. Would take a shot if think he might be low owned. Just reading about him a bit now, he seems to know this course well. Pencilling him in..
What are your thoughts? Keep him rostered or find another sleeper?
He might be the safest 50/50 play on the board, but he'll likely be highly owned in the GPP. Would we be better off going with another top dog flying under the radar a bit?
Martin Kaymer hasn't been getting much attention, which is odd since he won the last major and appears to be in solid form.
Thoughts on going with the less popular Kaymer over a widely-owned Stenson, or do we roll with the guy many think is the favorite to win this weekend?
Or maybe sliding just below Stenson to a guy like Sergio Garcia? Something tells me he's going to be a factor on Sunday. His stats are solid across the board (for the ones we care about anyway - Driving Accuracy, GIR%, and Putting Rank. Arguably better than any of the 6 guys above him).
I for one like the idea of going with Kaymer in a situation like this where we can safely assume that Stenson will be highly owned. It's the British Open, there's 3000+ entries in this DFS contest, you need a guy at the top who isn't owned by everyone else. we only have two lineups so it feels like we need to take more risks than we would if we had 5-10 entries.
But with all that said, i'll of course defer to some of the more knowledgeable golf minds on here if stenson is a "must-play" for them.
Positives: He has two top-5s in his last three starts. He ranks 32nd in saves, 41st in GIR and 64th in putting (for a 47th "weighted rank"). He's made 14 of 21 cuts which isn't great but as good or better than most of the guys around him. His father flew him over to Scotland when he was a kid to play links golf, and he sounds very confident about his current form in that article.
Negatives: He's coming off an 88th place finish in the Greenbrier. He's never played in the Open. He recently made the switch from a belly putter (although he fired a 62 in his first round without it and said he was surprised at how quickly he's adjusted).
I think he's worth a shot in at least one lineup.