MLB Totals and Team Totals Markets question

ericvanden

Evening guys. Have a question on the connection between the Totals and each teams Team Totals regarding movement. Are each Team Totals a different market than the Total of the same game. If Philly/LA tonight get hits hard and goes to U 6.5 (-130) at Pinny , will that be reflected in each teams Totals? I think it does but wanted to see what some of you thought.....

procap

Yeah usually it will be adjusted to reflect the move on the game total, but it doesn't happen instantly. If you like a particular team total and you see the game total being steamed, you should have time to fire away before it adjusts, especially somewhere other than Pinny. I'd recommend reading this article from Pinny:

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/strategy/baseball/mlb-totals.aspx

ericvanden

Thanks Procap, that's essentially what I have been doing. Getting roughly .3 runs/Team Total so far through 100 games exactly this season (51-49) and just wanted to toss it out there to see what the board thought. I have read that article as well, thank you!

procap

No problem, Pinny has a lot of badass articles... don't be such a stranger around here. You're waaaaaay to sharp to only have 91 posts

underwraps

Procap, quick question on MLB.. how effective is it for a Pitcher to be using Pine tar?
does that info warrant a .15c move over a legit math model?
how about sandpaper? or any other gizmo they may have come up with that the public is unaware of?

Ronbets

Wraps, it's a wash. Most pitchers and catchers are using it, especially in key spots. Belichick type cheating would be of more value. Knowing the next pitch through surveillance.
I'm surprised Pineda would come right back to it after being exposed last start vs RSox.

procap

I'd think the majority of pitchers are bettering their grip in some "illegal" fashion. Pineda was just blatant about it. Not sure if you heard Farrell's press conference but he more or less said they didn't want to have to go out and tell the umps about it, but Pineda essentially slapped them in the face by slopping it all over his neck. Not sure if you have touched a MLB baseball before, but those things are hard as hell to grip. A rosin bag does jack shit.

Just impossible to quantify something like that

StevieY

procap wrote: »

Not sure if you have touched a MLB baseball before, but those things are hard as hell to grip. A rosin bag does jack shit.

You must have small hands. A rosin bag does what it is supposed to do, dry your hands.

The average baseball in MLB stays in play for about 5-6 pitches these days. A little pine tar on your fingers to get a better grip will not change the trajectory of the ball, and it does the opposite of the typical slippery substance you would want on a "spitball", so it doesn't work in both senses of a spitball(trajectory change from the ball and non-traditional spin from it "slipping" off your fingers). You can't build up enough pine tar on a ball before it is replaced. You have to goop it up fast and that needs to be a clear substance or it is too obvious. There's a bigger chance these days of scuffing up a ball, easier to do especially if your catcher is in it with you. It's easy and immediate. Most everyone knows how to take advantage of a scuff, few know how to really throw a true spitball. If it is a wet or cold day, I'd rather face a pitcher with some pine tar on his fingers. Normally, you really don't need anything more than saliva on a rubbed up ball.

You can still throw the Mickey Lolich "legal" spitball. Wet your fingers, act like you are wiping it off, grip between the seams on the leather and watch it slip right off your fingers.

procap

StevieY wrote: »

You must have small hands. A rosin bag does what it is supposed to do, dry your hands.

Haha, sure do.. at least for someone of my height. 6'4 and couldn't even throw a split finger... It wasn't a problem for me in high school, but when I played AAABA in the summer, I always had a tough time getting a good grip

mjc257

ericvanden wrote: »

Evening guys. Have a question on the connection between the Totals and each teams Team Totals regarding movement. Are each Team Totals a different market than the Total of the same game. If Philly/LA tonight get hits hard and goes to U 6.5 (-130) at Pinny , will that be reflected in each teams Totals? I think it does but wanted to see what some of you thought.....

Problem with team totals is that with most books dealing 30-cent lines, they have lots of room for error. Not that there's never an edge, but have to careful about just following game steam.

procap

mjc257 wrote: »

but have to careful about just following game steam.

I was under the assumption he was only betting them if his handicapping showed value and not just chasing game steam. But this is a good point, I wouldn't just sit back and chase on these.

ericvanden

Thanks guys. Im to assume Pinny is dealing sharp TT's. If Pinny was dealing Cleveland under 4 (-126) true price come first pitch and Ive got another book dealing Under 4 (-115), why not play it? Not being argumentative, or Ive got my heart set on answers that I want to hear, just curious why I shouldn't fire away on +ev when comparing lines.

durito

Pinny deals 16c lines on team totals and 2k limits, far from a sharp market. If they have 4+110/-126.. Blindly betting -115 will lose money.

ericvanden

I should have clarified. I meant it was Under 4 (+116/-136). Thought Pinny had the sharpest baseball markets, was wrong to assume. Appreciate the input guys, Team Totals is something Ive just started looking into.