Betting Talk

Damn you Kansas City Royals...near perfect night

homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
edited April 2014 in Sports Betting
903 St. Louis Cardinals +105* vs Milwaukee Brewers (J Kelly - R must Start W Peralta - R must Start)
901 Pittsburgh Pirates +123* vs Cincinnati Reds (F Liriano - L must Start J Cueto - R must Start)
929 Chicago Cubs +158* vs New York Yankees (T Wood - L must Start M Pineda - R must Start)
931 Chicago Cubs +185* vs New York Yankees (J Hammel - R must Start M Tanaka - R must Start)
914 San Francisco Giants -108* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (P Maholm - L must Start R Vogelsong - R must Start)
919 Seattle Mariners +118* vs Texas Rangers (F Hernandez - R must Start Y Darvish - R must Start)
921 Kansas City Royals -119* vs Houston Astros (J Guthrie - R must Start D Keuchel - L must Start)
926 Chicago White Sox +134* vs Boston Red Sox (C Buchholz - R must Start J Danks - L must Start)

7-1.

so close to the 8 game sweep.

Comments

  • gavnastygavnasty Member
    edited April 2014
    7) Unless you are a paid site sponsor, do not refer to any past picks or post any records of picks that were not originally posted on the BettingTalk forum before the outcome was determined.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    gavnasty wrote: »
    7) Unless you are a paid site sponsor, do not refer to any past picks or post any records of picks that were not originally posted on the BettingTalk forum before the outcome was determined.

    completely missed the point, eh?

    and so what if SF was only a penny, still counts.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Baseball is the worst sport ever invented.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2014
    gavnasty wrote: »
    7) Unless you are a paid site sponsor, do not refer to any past picks or post any records of picks that were not originally posted on the BettingTalk forum before the outcome was determined.

    The main spirit of this rule is that we don't want people citing/including records from outside sources since they weren't posted under the guidelines we have here. We're also not interested in people gloating over alleged wins that may or may not have actually occurred.

    I don't see anything wrong with occasionally posting your card after a rough day as a means of venting. If you didn't notice when you made your post, HP was showing that he actually went 1-7 and KC "ruined" his 0-fer.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Sorry again. My fault for erroneous assumptions. I don't care who won/lost, well my BR does. A year ago this would have been venting. A 2-6 would have really ground my gears.

    I did go 7-1. Thought the thread title would be enough to hook some posters into a spirited CLV debate. Slightly obsessed with numbes at the moment. I'm more excited about getting positive CLV on 7 out of 8 plays then I am the results of the actual game.

    So the only gloating here concerns beating the closer. Which serves as a means to an end. BettingTalk has been amazing for my development, especially the addition of Buffett last mlb season. That guy, added to my feelings on EMT and the proven importance of CLV has officially moved my baseball goal from capping games to capping the Market.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    I played 5 games yesterday. All 5 closed scalpable and I lost all 5.
  • baseRunnerbaseRunner Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Ive been burying closers all year- massive, unbelievable advantages all over the place, and playing huge volume every day. And I have an absolutely incredible 4-39 run to show for it over the past week or so. I'm actually starting to get nostalgic for the trainwreck of 2013.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    I played 5 games yesterday. All 5 closed scalpable and I lost all 5.

    Ooh, would love to explore that. So let's say you continue building +CLV (hereby officially declare myself too lazy to continue to write positive/negative CLV and will now use +/- moving forward (yes realize this flies in the face of current statement on lazy)) and creating scalps. What percentage of games finishing scalpable would it take for that to become your primary focus? I am assuming here you will not continue to achieve 100% in the scalps dept.

    Somewhat unrelated but not really. Wait until you see the +CLV on low temp Totals. Beating those closers by 30 cents.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Beating the market is always my primary focus.

    Edit: Unless posting right before tip .
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Beating the market is always my primary focus.

    Mine as well, but let me throw this completely ridiculous thought at you. Say I accumulate this data and I separate by +/- CLV. Currently my -CLV is at 8-8, way too early to make any decisions. But do you feel, and here comes the part that may decrease your intelligence just by you reading it, is there a point where it would ever make sense to buy back the other side on -CLV events? I wouldn't expect my long term adj wining percentage to drop below 40% on -CLV events in MLB.

    I can increase my retardation.

    Flip side. If my long term adj win % on +CLV is over 55%, should I add to original position. It erodes my CLV figure, but potentially increases my EG, no?
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    baseRunner wrote: »
    Ive been burying closers all year- massive, unbelievable advantages all over the place, and playing huge volume every day. And I have an absolutely incredible 4-39 run to show for it over the past week or so. I'm actually starting to get nostalgic for the trainwreck of 2013.

    Short term results suck. Long term looks promising.

    Please tell me you don't have braves at 117 with me.

    Are you capping with your own numbers then? You originating these plays on your own I mean?
  • baseRunnerbaseRunner Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    homerplayer wrote: »
    Short term results suck. Long term looks promising.

    Please tell me you don't have braves at 117 with me.

    Are you capping with your own numbers then? You originating these plays on your own I mean?

    Yes, I work alone. And no I didn't have ATL, but I was rooting for Pap to blow up in the ninth anyway. I hate that guy.
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