Betting Talk

On CLV and capping

homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
edited April 2014 in Sports Betting
In theory, if we believe in the importance of it, does CLV not potentially mean both sides of an MLB game are right?

Lets argue this one in a vacuum outside of just employing CLV to determine the likelihood a capper wins/loses moving forward.

If you are telling me CLV is important, which I completely agree with, then the logical conclusion is as long as I am beating the closer doesn't matter which side i am on, making capping meaningless? if i am beating that closer long term shouldn't matter which side was the 'right' one, no?

yes, an obvious short coming being impossible to time markets.

all input welcomed and appreciated.
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Comments

  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2014
    Both sides of every proposition are +EV given the right price.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    thanks Goats. I almost used that exact phrasing on both sides possibly being +EV while the line matures, but thought there would be some resistance.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2014
    homerplayer wrote: »
    thanks Goats. I almost used that exact phrasing on both sides possibly being +EV while the line matures, but thought there would be some resistance.

    Just don't confuse what I wrote to mean I believe there are always +EV prices AVAILABLE on both sides of every proposition.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Capping is about setting a right price, not picking the right side. I sometimes see questions from inexperienced bettors or squares asking "How can you handicap baseball when the season is so long so you don't know who'll win the game?" but it's about setting the right price. That's true for football and basketball as well, but it's easy for people to result and say afterwards there's such a thing as the "clear right side."
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    groovinmahoovin wrote: »
    Capping is about setting a right price, not picking the right side. I sometimes see questions from inexperienced bettors or squares asking "How can you handicap baseball when the season is so long so you don't know who'll win the game?" but it's about setting the right price. That's true for football and basketball as well, but it's easy for people to result and say afterwards there's such a thing as the "clear right side."
    I can not stand when people post ridiculous shortsighted answers like yours. Math models are necessity in this business. But analysis and work ethic are just as important. Following the teams in every way possible is just as important. There's reasons why people like RAS have a 12 man team. They're not just comparing each other's math models. You sound like fezzik. I don't need to know any of the players names. The most successful in this business include all the factors.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Guys that don't use "math" still have to have stop price on a game. I think that's what groovin was referring to. Doesn't matter how you get there. If you think -120 has value when it goes to -130 it doesn't. Whether you got there using math or watching every pitch,possession, etc..
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    ebemiss wrote: »
    Guys that don't use "math" still have to have stop price on a game. I think that's what groovin was referring to. Doesn't matter how you get there. If you think -120 has value when it goes to -130 it doesn't. Whether you got there using math or watching every pitch,possession, etc..[/QUOTE True. What I'm saying is there's more that goes into making the line. Then just a math model.The hours that some people put into this are incredible.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    True. What I'm saying is there's more that goes into making the line. Then just a math model.The hours that some people put into this are incredible.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    I get it. People can arrive at a selection anyway they want.At some point in the process people have to have a number that they'd play each side and and each side of the total at. That's all I was saying.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    ebemiss wrote: »
    I get it. People can arrive at a selection anyway they want.At some point in the process people have to have a number that they'd play each side and and each side of the total at. That's all I was saying.
    The number is where you start. I was taught by someone you all respect a great deal that you need to include reading all the local papers on the teams including websites on the various teams to find people who have knowledge on the teams, to start correspondence with various columnists, to basically leave no stone unturned. The line is where you start, the edge is found in the information.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    you need to include reading all the local papers on the teams including websites on the various teams to find people who have knowledge on the teams, to start correspondence with various columnists, to basically leave no stone unturned.

    Hello?
    The Knicks?
    Can I get Phil on the line please? Just a couple of questions :) Thank You!

    JK Jake! I agree with you, that's how you ideally beat the numbers set by the bookmakers.
  • shoeboxshoebox Member
    edited April 2014
    A very simplistic answer to this will shed some light.

    if a game opens -115 and goes to -135, +125(assuming 10 cent line) is available to EVERYONE in the world, the -115 is only bet by the most talented of bettors.

    Not saying you cannot win short term, everyone can have a good season or 2, but you cannot leave those edges on the table over 1000+ games. Handicappers laying -120 when the talent is laying -115 is fighting an uphill battle and just taking the other side at the max price isnt the way to go either, you are betting a line that is available to every Joe Square, the line has been beat up and shaped up by the best in the business.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    True. What I'm saying is there's more that goes into making the line. Then just a math model.The hours that some people put into this are incredible.

    You still have to come up with a number after all of that and set a good price.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    You still have to come up with a number after all of that and set a good price.
    That's exactly what I am trying to say. You can't have one without the other. I have been trying to see what kind of responses I would get here. I realize a lot of you strictly use a math model which I will point out again has to be part of it, but you have to put some legwork in it as well. Another thing that you might want to consider if you really want to be plus even at this, you might want to live where the sport books are legal. There really are advantages to have the Vegas books as well as offshore accessible. Here is a big example, some years ago I was up quite a bit at a book called Ace's Gold, the problem was they closed and kept my money. I found that rather minus even which caused me to move to Las Vegas. I always wonder with the amount of talented intelligent people doing this how they don't take into consideration losing large chunks of money to the offshore books as a negative, but then again I have always thought to go where you have the best advantage at what you do. Example, if I wanted to surf, I would live by an ocean. If I was going to ski, I would live where it snowed.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    I can not stand when people post ridiculous shortsighted answers like yours.

    And I can not (sic) stand when people like you are allowed to insult at length and I'm not allowed to flame back, but unfortunately you're one of Edward's pals. C'est la vie.
    Math models are necessity in this business. But analysis and work ethic are just as important.

    I agree. When did I say otherwise?
    Following the teams in every way possible is just as important.

    I agree. When did I say otherwise?
    There's reasons why people like RAS have a 12 man team. They're not just comparing each other's math models.

    I agree. When did I say otherwise?
    You sound like fezzik. I don't need to know any of the players names.

    Unfortunately, apparently you're the only one allowed to sling insults around here, so I'm not allowed to say what you sound like. But how about you find a single post where I've ever said "I don't know a single player's name but I can beat this sport vs WA lines!" or anything remotely resembling that. Winning at sports betting is hard. In the future, I would suggest you actually reply to the post in question rather than "make shit up."
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    True. What I'm saying is there's more that goes into making the line. Then just a math model.The hours that some people put into this are incredible.

    I'm beginning. To understand your objections. To math models.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    Another thing that you might want to consider if you really want to be plus even at this, you might want to live where the sport books are legal.

    Oh ok, this is another one of Edward's April Fool's jokes. You guys really had me going for a second!
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited April 2014
    homerplayer wrote: »
    In theory, if we believe in the importance of it, does CLV not potentially mean both sides of an MLB game are right?

    Lets argue this one in a vacuum outside of just employing CLV to determine the likelihood a capper wins/loses moving forward.

    If you are telling me CLV is important, which I completely agree with, then the logical conclusion is as long as I am beating the closer doesn't matter which side i am on, making capping meaningless? if i am beating that closer long term shouldn't matter which side was the 'right' one, no?

    yes, an obvious short coming being impossible to time markets.

    all input welcomed and appreciated.

    Many will say I am a broken record but since you asked, I will answer.
    I am not a CLV guy at all.
    Game opens at 3 , I don't think it has value at that number, line climbs to 6 at game time, now I think +6 has value, I got zero CLV but got a value wager, why should I care about CLV ?
    Also not all CLV is the same , college hoops totals CLV or non-major conference CLV is not as valuable as someone getting CLV in major pro sports, IMO.
    Lastly as far as capping lots more to it then a formula, math formula is just a small portion.
    Just my repeated thoughts.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    BigKahuna wrote: »
    I am not a CLV guy at all.
    Game opens at 3 , I don't think it has value at that number, line climbs to 6 at game time, now I think +6 has value, I got zero CLV but got a value wager, why should I care about CLV ?

    Kinda contradicting yourself. You say you don't care about line value, then you give an example of how 'getting a good number' matters. No need to keep being the 'Contrarian' here. Apparently you do agree on the notion of getting a good number.

    Say you have a couple of buildings in a highly competitive rental/sales market. One manager manages to get a couple of hundred extra per month for every unit which he rents out, while the other keeps getting the standard price. Which of the two are you going to retain if forced to choose between them 2? If your keeping the one who performs best (easy choice), then why would you treat your bankroll any different from the way you evaluate your investments?

    Better numbers = bigger bankroll
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    BigKahuna wrote: »
    Many will say I am a broken record but since you asked, I will answer.
    I am not a CLV guy at all.
    Game opens at 3 , I don't think it has value at that number, line climbs to 6 at game time, now I think +6 has value, I got zero CLV but got a value wager, why should I care about CLV ?
    Also not all CLV is the same , college hoops totals CLV or non-major conference CLV is not as valuable as someone getting CLV in major pro sports, IMO.
    Lastly as far as capping lots more to it then a formula, math formula is just a small portion.
    Just my repeated thoughts.

    I've said this same thing on here several times, and get laughed out of the room. My problem, particularly with small conference college baskets, is the basic assumption behind CLV. You must start with the idea that the CLOSING line is correct, has been set my the market, etc. I think this is a faulty assumption in sports where one bettor, or twitter person with a following can move the line several points. The emphasis should be on line value-- did you get the best number available for the side you liked-- not whether you beat the closing line.

    My umbrella is open and I'm ready for the shit to fall on me.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Data exists to test all of these hypothesis, let's see some studies.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited April 2014
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited April 2014
    groovinmahoovin wrote: »
    but unfortunately you're one of Edward's pals

    We were associates briefly about 4-5 years ago. Haven't communicated much at all since. I really do not understand the source of the anger that comes from some of his posts, but they are definitely getting tiresome. We aren't pals and he's not getting any special treatment.
  • bcl4bcl4 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Is he trolling with the plus even / minus even shit? I honestly can't tell.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    RightAngle wrote: »
    We were associates briefly about 4-5 years ago. Haven't communicated much at all since. I really do not understand the source of the anger that comes from some of his posts, but they are definitely getting tiresome. We aren't pals and he's not getting any special treatment.
    let me start by saying. I'm sorry for offending people on here. I'm not sharp do not consider myself sharp. As my son said who is in first grade when asked what does your dad do for a living?He replied he watches sports. There's nothing sharp about what I do. I contribute nothing to society whatsoever. I get wrapped up in this and become a Dick. Personally I don't consider what I do much better than the drug dealer.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    That's exactly what I am trying to say. You can't have one without the other. I have been trying to see what kind of responses I would get here. I realize a lot of you strictly use a math model which I will point out again has to be part of it, but you have to put some legwork in it as well. Another thing that you might want to consider if you really want to be plus even at this, you might want to live where the sport books are legal. There really are advantages to have the Vegas books as well as offshore accessible. Here is a big example, some years ago I was up quite a bit at a book called Ace's Gold, the problem was they closed and kept my money. I found that rather minus even which caused me to move to Las Vegas. I always wonder with the amount of talented intelligent people doing this how they don't take into consideration losing large chunks of money to the offshore books as a negative, but then again I have always thought to go where you have the best advantage at what you do. Example, if I wanted to surf, I would live by an ocean. If I was going to ski, I would live where it snowed.

    I was going to thank you for this, but plus even and minus even threw me for quite a loop.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    I was going to thank you for this, but plus even and minus even threw me for quite a loop.

    I wish I could find the post I made a long time ago about how the incorrect usage of +EV in various forms (especially "plus even") was a pet peeve of mine. Clearly I'm not alone.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Goats wrote: »
    I wish I could find the post I made a long time ago about how the incorrect usage of +EV in various forms (especially "plus even") was a pet peeve of mine. Clearly I'm not alone.
    not that it matters. But I'm using Dragon software.
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    let me start by saying. I'm sorry for offending people on here. I'm not sharp do not consider myself sharp. As my son said who is in first grade when asked what does your dad do for a living?He replied he watches sports. There's nothing sharp about what I do. I contribute nothing to society whatsoever. I get wrapped up in this and become a Dick. Personally I don't consider what I do much better than the drug dealer.

    I disagree with this statement so strongly that I better just stay away from commenting.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    blackbull wrote: »
    I disagree with this statement so strongly that I better just stay away from commenting.
    how do you disagree with me having a personal opinion about myself ?
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